(Re)Emerging disease and conflict risk in Africa, 1997-2019.

While the number of infectious zoonotic disease outbreaks has been rising, their impact on civil war and social conflict is poorly understood. This study addresses this fundamental limitation using a geolocated monthly dataset on 22 zoonotic diseases in Africa. Zoonotic disease is a key driver of new epidemics, making such pathogens a useful test case. Results suggest that over the January 1997 to December 2019 period, zoonotic disease was negatively associated with state initiation of civil conflict and positively associated with social conflict involving identity militias. Additional analyses find that the effect for identity militias is consistent with a causal interpretation. Rebel violence is not significantly associated with outbreaks. The results are robust to endogeneity concerns and additional sensitivity analyses.

U.S. Federal Reserve Policies can cause Political instability by raising bread prices.

This note argues that the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve impact food prices globally and can - by extension - affect the incidence of food riots and broader social conflict. We additionally claim that these impacts are especially likely in the case of commodities with more price-inelastic demand, staple cereals in particular, but less likely in the case of food commodities with more price-elastic demand, such as meats and oil. Using mediation analysis, we find empirical support for the impact of changes to US dollar supply on food riots from 2000-2011. We also find that this relationship extends to broader measures of social conflict (including protests, riots, strikes, etc.). We conclude with a cautionary note about how to interpret these results. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-022-01300-0.

Introducing AfroGrid, a unified framework for environmental conflict research in Africa.

In this study, we present Afro-Grid: an integrated, disaggregated 0.5-degree grid-month dataset on conflict, environmental stress, and socioeconomic features in Africa covering 1989-2020, intended to propel research on these issues forward. Afro-Grid offers several important extensions for researchers and policymakers, including: (i) standardizing (using established methods) data sources on conflict, environmental stress, and socio economic factors across spatial and temporal scales; (ii) combining these data into a single, openly-available file, maximizing the accessibility of these data for researchers and policymakers regardless of their software background; and (iii) including NDVI and dual-series harmonized night lights series that have traditionally not been accessible to researchers without advanced computational expertise. Using a series of comparative regressions at the grid-month and grid-year levels, combined with reporting descriptive statistics and visualizations, we illustrate that this temporally and geographically disaggregated dataset provides valuable extensions for research related to the climate-conflict nexus and the role of socioeconomic features in shaping conflict trends, as well as for research and data-driven policy on development and conflict.