Functional traits and climate drive interspecific differences in disturbance-induced tree mortality.

With climate change, natural disturbances such as storm or fire are reshuffled, inducing pervasive shifts in forest dynamics. To predict how it will impact forest structure and composition, it is crucial to understand how tree species differ in their sensitivity to disturbances. In this study, we investigated how functional traits and species mean climate affect their sensitivity to disturbances while controlling for tree size and stand structure. With data on 130,594 trees located on 7617 plots that were disturbed by storm, fire, snow, biotic or other disturbances from the French, Spanish, and Finnish National Forest Inventory, we modeled annual mortality probability for 40 European tree species as a function of tree size, dominance status, disturbance type, and intensity. We tested the correlation of our estimated species probability of disturbance mortality with their traits and their mean climate niches. We found that different trait combinations controlled species sensitivity to disturbances. Storm-sensitive species had a high height-dbh ratio, low wood density and high maximum growth, while fire-sensitive species had low bark thickness and high P50. Species from warmer and drier climates, where fires are more frequent, were more resistant to fire. The ranking in disturbance sensitivity between species was overall consistent across disturbance types. Productive conifer species were the most disturbance sensitive, while Mediterranean oaks were the least disturbance sensitive. Our study identified key relations between species functional traits and disturbance sensitivity, that allows more reliable predictions of how changing climate and disturbance regimes will impact future forest structure and species composition at large spatial scales.

Modelling the effect of moose Alces alces population density and regional forest structure on the amount of damage in forest seedling stands.

BACKGROUND: Moose (Alces alces L.) populations and moose damage in forests are debated in Nordic countries with dense moose populations. Moose populations and food resources vary greatly, both spatially and temporally, and reliable data covering both variables simultaneously at the same scale have seldom been available. We modelled the effect of moose population density and forest resources on the area of moose damage at regional scale, referring to moose management areas (MMA). Forest data and moose damage data originated from the Finnish National Forest Inventory, and the moose population data came from a Bayesian moose model. For modelling, average values of moose population, damage and forest variables were calculated for the periods 2004-2008 and 2009-2013 for each MMA. The MMAs were further classified into one of four larger geographical zones. The area of moose damage was used as a dependent variable, and the proportions of different types of forests and moose population densities per land area or area of seedling stands as explanatory variables. The relationships were modelled with a linear mixed-effects model with an exponential spatial correlation structure. RESULTS: The area of moose damage was best explained by total forest area, proportions of plantations and mature forests, and moose population density per land area or the proportion of plantations. There were differences among the biogeographical zones in how different variables explained the amount of damage. CONCLUSION: The results provide tools for analyzing the regional effects of moose population density and the amount of food resources on the amount of moose damage. This information can be used in reconciling sustainable moose population levels and the amount of damage.

Sensitivity of managed boreal forests in Finland to climate change, with implications for adaptive management.

This study investigated the sensitivity of managed boreal forests to climate change, with consequent needs to adapt the management to climate change. Model simulations representing the Finnish territory between 60 and 70 degrees N showed that climate change may substantially change the dynamics of managed boreal forests in northern Europe. This is especially probable at the northern and southern edges of this forest zone. In the north, forest growth may increase, but the special features of northern forests may be diminished. In the south, climate change may create a suboptimal environment for Norway spruce. Dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birches may compete with Scots pine even in these sites and the dominance of birches may increase. These changes may reduce the total forest growth locally but, over the whole of Finland, total forest growth may increase by 44%, with an increase of 82% in the potential cutting drain. The choice of appropriate species and reduced rotation length may sustain the productivity of forest land under climate change.