Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus's Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change.

Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified the species' sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability to projected changes, conducting a preliminary IUCN extinction risk assessment according to Criteria A and B. Our projections uniformly predict range reductions, with a median decrease of 67.8% by the 2070s under the most extreme scenarios. Additionally, our research indicates Quercus alnifolia's resilience to diverse erosion conditions and preference for relatively dry climates within a specific annual temperature range. The preliminary IUCN risk assessment designates Quercus alnifolia as Critically Endangered in the future, highlighting the need for focused conservation efforts. Climate and land-use changes are critical threats to the species' survival, emphasising the importance of comprehensive modelling techniques and the urgent requirement for dedicated conservation measures to safeguard this iconic species.

Climate and Land-Cover Change Impacts and Extinction Risk Assessment of Rare and Threatened Endemic Taxa of Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park (Peloponnese, Greece).

Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park is a floristic diversity and endemism hotspot in Greece and one of the main areas where Greek endemic taxa, preliminary assessed as critically endangered and threatened under the IUCN Criteria A and B, are mainly concentrated. The climate and land-cover change impacts on rare and endemic species distributions is more prominent in regional biodiversity hotspots. The main aims of the current study were: (a) to investigate how climate and land-cover change may alter the distribution of four single mountain endemics and three very rare Peloponnesian endemic taxa of the National Park via a species distribution modelling approach, and (b) to estimate the current and future extinction risk of the aforementioned taxa based on the IUCN Criteria A and B, in order to investigate the need for designing an effective plant micro-reserve network and to support decision making on spatial planning efforts and conservation research for a sustainable, integrated management. Most of the taxa analyzed are expected to continue to be considered as critically endangered based on both Criteria A and B under all land-cover/land-use scenarios, GCM/RCP and time-period combinations, while two, namely Alchemilla aroanica and Silene conglomeratica, are projected to become extinct in most future climate change scenarios. When land-cover/land-use data were included in the analyses, these negative effects were less pronounced. However, Silene conglomeratica, the rarest mountain endemic found in the study area, is still expected to face substantial range decline. Our results highlight the urgent need for the establishment of micro-reserves for these taxa.

'Fly to a Safer North': Distributional Shifts of the Orchid Ophrys insectifera L. Due to Climate Change.

Numerous orchid species around the world have already been affected by the ongoing climate change, displaying phenological alterations and considerable changes to their distributions. The fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.) is a well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, with a broad distribution across the continent. This study explores the effects of climate change on the range of O. insectifera, using a species distribution models (SDMs) framework that encompasses different climatic models and scenarios for the near- and long-term future. The species' environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards (as expected) but downhill (contrary to usual expectations) in the future. In addition, an overall range contraction is predicted under all investigated combinations of climatic models and scenarios. While this is moderate overall, it includes some regions of severe loss and other areas with major gains. Specifically, O. insectifera is projected to experience major area loss in its southern reaches (the Balkans, Italy and Spain), while it will expand its northern limits to North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries exhibiting the largest gains.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Island Bees: The Aegean Archipelago.

Pollinators' climate change impact assessments focus mainly on mainland regions. Thus, we are unaware how island species might fare in a rapidly changing world. This is even more pressing in the Mediterranean Basin, a global biodiversity hotspot. In Greece, a regional pollinator hotspot, climate change research is in its infancy and the insect Wallacean shortfall still remains unaddressed. In a species distribution modelling framework, we used the most comprehensive occurrence database for bees in Greece to locate the bee species richness hotspots in the Aegean, and investigated whether these might shift in the future due to climate change and assessed the Natura 2000 protected areas network effectiveness. Range contractions are anticipated for most taxa, becoming more prominent over time. Species richness hotspots are currently located in the NE Aegean and in highly disturbed sites. They will shift both altitudinally and latitudinally in the future. A small proportion of these hotspots are currently included in the Natura 2000 protected areas network and this proportion is projected to decrease in the coming decades. There is likely an extinction debt present in the Aegean bee communities that could result to pollination network collapse. There is a substantial conservation gap in Greece regarding bees and a critical re-assessment of the established Greek protected areas network is needed, focusing on areas identified as bee diversity hotspots over time.

Linking Taxonomic, Phylogenetic and Functional Plant Diversity with Ecosystem Services of Cliffs and Screes in Greece.

Sparsely vegetated habitats of cliffs and screes act as refugia for many regional and local endemic specialized plant taxa most of which have evolved precisely for that type of habitat. The interplay between taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional plant diversity on rock and scree habitats of extreme environmental conditions, enlightens the relations of plant communities and ecosystems and facilitates management planning for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. The identification of biodiversity patterns and hotspots (taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional) contributes to the integration of the ecosystem services (ES) approach for the mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services (MAES) implementation in Greece and the creation of thematic maps based on the MAES reporting format. The overlap among the protected areas' network revealed that almost all areas of cliffs and screes of medium, high, and very high taxonomic and phylogenetic plant endemism are included in the Natura 2000 area network. The results of this study provide the baseline information for ES assessments at sparsely vegetated land of cliffs and screes. Our results contribute to the implementation of certain indicators of the national set of MAES indicators in Greece such as (a) floristic diversity and (b) microrefugia of endemic diversity and support of decision-making.

Past connections with the mainland structure patterns of insular species richness in a continental-shelf archipelago (Aegean Sea, Greece).

Recent research in island biogeography has highlighted the important role of late Quaternary sea-level fluctuations in shaping biogeographic patterns in insular systems but focused on oceanic systems. Through this study, we aim investigate how late Quaternary sea-level fluctuations shaped species richness patterns in continental-shelf island systems. Focusing on the Aegean archipelago, we first compiled maps of the area's geography using published data, under three sea-level stands: (a) current; (b) median sea-level over the last nine glacial-interglacial cycles (MSL); and (c) Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We gathered taxon-island occurrences for multiple chorotypes of angiosperms, butterflies, centipedes, and reptiles. We investigated the impact of present-day and past geographic settings on chorological groups by analyzing island species-area relationships (ISARs) and using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) selection based on multiple metrics of goodness of fit. Our results confirm that the Aegean's geography has changed dramatically since the LGM, whereas the MSL only modestly differs from the present configuration. Apart for centipedes, paleogeographic changes affected both native and endemic species diversity through altering connections between land-bridge islands and the mainland. On land-bridge islands, we detected over-representation of native species and under-representation of endemics. Unlike oceanic islands, sea-level-driven increase of isolation and area contraction did not strongly shape patterns of species richness. Furthermore, the LGM configurations rather than the MSL configuration shaped patterns of endemic species richness. This suggests that even short episodes of increased connectivity with continental populations are sufficient to counteract the genetic differentiation of insular populations. On the other hand, the over-representation of native nonendemic species on land-bridge islands reflected MSL rather than LGM mainland connections. Our study shows that in terms of processes affecting species richness patterns, continental archipelagos differ fundamentally from oceanic systems because episodic connections with the mainland have profound effects on the biota of land-bridge islands.

An Orchid in Retrograde: Climate-Driven Range Shift Patterns of Ophrys helenae in Greece.

Climate change is regarded as one of the most important threats to plants. Already species around the globe are showing considerable latitudinal and altitudinal shifts. Helen's bee orchid (Ophrys helenae), a Balkan endemic with a distribution center in northwestern Greece, is reported to be expanding east and southwards. Since this southeastern movement goes against the usual expectations, we investigated via Species Distribution Modelling, whether this pattern is consistent with projections based on the species' response to climate change. We predicted the species' future distribution based on three different climate models in two climate scenarios. We also explored the species' potential distribution during the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. O. helenae is projected to shift mainly southeast and experience considerable area changes. The species is expected to become extinct in the core of its current distribution, but to establish a strong presence in the mid- and high-altitude areas of the Central Peloponnese, a region that could have provided shelter in previous climatic extremes.

Extinction Risk Assessment of the Greek Endemic Flora.

Human-induced biodiversity decline has been on the rise for the past 250 years, due to various causes. What is equally troubling, is that we are unaware which plants are threatened and where they occur. Thus, we are far from reaching Aichi Biodiversity Target 2, i.e., assessing the extinction risk of most species. To that end, based on an extensive occurrence dataset, we performed an extinction risk assessment according to the IUCN Criteria A and B for all the endemic plant taxa occurring in Greece, one of the most biodiverse countries in Europe, in a phylogenetically-informed framework and identified the areas needing conservation prioritization. Several of the Greek endemics are threatened with extinction and fourteen endemics need to be prioritized, as they are evolutionary distinct and globally endangered. Mt. Gramos is identified as the most important conservation hotspot in Greece. However, a significant portion of the identified conservation hotspots is not included in any designated Greek protected area, meaning that the Greek protected areas network might need to be at least partially redesigned. In the Anthropocene era, where climate and land-use change are projected to alter biodiversity patterns and may force many species to extinction, our assessment provides the baseline for future conservation research, ecosystem services maintenance, and might prove crucial for the timely, systematic and effective aversion of plant extinctions in Greece.

Plant Endemism Centres and Biodiversity Hotspots in Greece.

Biodiversity hotspots (BH) cover a small fraction of the Earth's surface, yet host numerous endemics. Human-induced biodiversity loss has been increasing worldwide, despite attempts to halt the extinction crisis. There is thus an urgent need to efficiently allocate the available conservation funds in an optimised conservation prioritization scheme. Identifying BH and endemism centres (EC) is therefore a valuable tool in conservation prioritization and planning. Even though Greece is one of the most plant species-rich European countries, few studies have dealt with the identification of BH or EC and none has ever incorporated phylogenetic information or extended to the national scale. Consequently, we are unaware of the extent that Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) of the Natura 2000 network efficiently protect Greek plant diversity. Here, we located for the first time at a national scale and in a phylogenetic framework, the areas serving as BH and EC, and assessed the effectiveness of the Greek SAC in safeguarding them. BH and EC are mainly located near mountainous areas, and in areas supposedly floristically impoverished, such as the central Aegean islands. A critical re-assessment of the Greek SAC might be needed to minimize the extinction risk of the Greek endemics, by focusing the conservation efforts also on the BH and EC that fall outside the established Greek SAC.

Spatial Phylogenetics, Biogeographical Patterns and Conservation Implications of the Endemic Flora of Crete (Aegean, Greece) under Climate Change Scenarios.

Human-induced biodiversity loss has been accelerating since the industrial revolution. The climate change impacts will severely alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns at all scales, leading to biotic homogenization. Due to underfunding, a climate smart, conservation-prioritization scheme is needed to optimize species protection. Spatial phylogenetics enable the identification of endemism centers and provide valuable insights regarding the eco-evolutionary and conservation value, as well as the biogeographical origin of a given area. Many studies exist regarding the conservation prioritization of mainland areas, yet none has assessed how climate change might alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns of an island biodiversity hotspot. Thus, we conducted a phylogenetically informed, conservation prioritization study dealing with the effects of climate change on Crete's plant diversity and biogeographical patterns. Using several macroecological analyses, we identified the current and future endemism centers and assessed the impact of climate change on the biogeographical patterns in Crete. The highlands of Cretan mountains have served as both diversity cradles and museums, due to their stable climate and high topographical heterogeneity, providing important ecosystem services. Historical processes seem to have driven diversification and endemic species distribution in Crete. Due to the changing climate and the subsequent biotic homogenization, Crete's unique bioregionalization, which strongly reminiscent the spatial configuration of the Pliocene/Pleistocene Cretan paleo-islands, will drastically change. The emergence of the 'Anthropocene' era calls for the prioritization of biodiversity-rich areas, serving as mixed-endemism centers, with high overlaps among protected areas and climatic refugia.

Population genetic variability and distribution of the endangered Greek endemic Cicer graecum under climate change scenarios.

The Mediterranean hot spot includes numerous endemic and socio-economically important plant species seriously threatened by climate change and habitat loss. In this study, the genetic diversity of five populations of Cicer graecum, an endangered endemic species from northern Peloponnisos, Greece and a wild relative of the cultivated Cicer arietinum, was investigated using inter-simple sequence repeats (ISSRs) and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers in order to determine levels and structure of genetic variability. Nei's gene diversity by ISSR and AFLP markers indicated medium to high genetic diversity at the population level. Moreover, AMOVA results suggest that most of the variation exists within (93 % for AFLPs and 65 % for ISSRs), rather than among populations. Furthermore, Principal Component Analysis based on ISSRs positively correlated the genetic differentiation among the populations to the geographic distances, suggesting that the gene flow among distant populations is limited. The ecological adaptation of C. graecum populations was also investigated by correlation of their genetic diversity with certain environmental variables. Aridity arose as the dominant factor positively affecting the genetic diversity of C. graecum populations. We modelled the realized climatic niche of C. graecum in an ensemble forecasting scheme under three different global circulation models and two climate change scenarios. In all cases, a severe range contraction for C. graecum is projected, highlighting the high extinction risk that is probably going to face during the coming decades. These results could be a valuable tool towards the implementation of an integrated in situ and ex situ conservation scheme approach for activating management programmes for this endemic and threatened species.

Implications of salep collection for the conservation of the Elder-flowered orchid (Dactylorhiza sambucina) in Epirus, Greece.

BACKGROUND: In Epirus, Greece, orchids have been traditionally harvested for the production of salep, a beverage made from their tubers. Over-collection of orchids for salep is believed to be a growing threat to wild species, yet very little research has concentrated on orchid populations in the wild. Here, we studied the impact of salep collection on population demographic parameters and uniformity of distribution patterns of the Elder-flowered orchid, Dactylorhiza sambucina, the most commonly collected orchid in northern Greece. METHODS: We carried out fieldwork in four meadows where salep harvesting occurs, and conducted interviews in villages close to these sites. Fieldwork focused on the demographic parameters of orchid populations and on the characteristics of their habitat (natural-anthropogenic). We also measured population size and distribution, extent and multi-scale density, comparing distributions to Poisson and fractal models. RESULTS: According to interviews, salep collection by the local community has decreased, contrary to collection by people outside the community, which is increasing. Interviewees did not believe that orchid abundance was higher in the past; they claim that it can be very variable. None of the participants seemed aware of the legislation to conserve orchids. Demographic parameters did not seem to be strongly dependent on whether it was a harvested and non-harvested sites and population density was greatest in the site of highest collection pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that salep collection is still ongoing in Epirus. Our interview results and our population study indicate that current levels of collection are not significantly affecting the abundance of the Elder-flowered orchid in Epirus subalpine meadows. However, the expanding commercial collection could reach levels that threaten the species. There is a need for a longer-term monitoring of these orchid populations, and a more effective modeling of the species' response to different harvesting pressures.

The native flora of Mountain Panachaikon (Peloponnese, Greece): new records and diversity.

BACKGROUND: This study presents the native flora of Mountain Panachaikon (N.W. Peloponnese, Greece), after extensive field work (from ~700 to 1900 m) and critical literature review. RESULTS: The vascular native flora of Mt. Panachaikon comprises 757 taxa, 95 of which are Greek endemics, 79 are Balkan endemics, while 229 taxa are reported here for the first time. The known distribution of the Greek endemics Alyssum montanum subsp. montanum var. graecum, Carum heldreichii, Cirsium heldreichii, Genista milii, Minuartia eurytanica and Seseli parnassicum is expanded, being reported for the first time for the floristic region of Peloponnese, and the number of the known populations of the Near Threatened Gymnospermium altaicum subsp. peloponnesiacum is increased. CONCLUSIONS: The study area appears to have the second highest endemism and the highest one in W. Greece, compared with other mountains of N. Peloponnese and Sterea Ellada, while 22.10% of the endemics are protected and/or evaluated as Near Threatened to Endangered. It also exhibits a rather high proportion of Balkan endemics, in relation to its geographic location, and some genuine arctic-alpine taxa. These indicate that Mt. Panachaikon can be rendered as a plant diversity hotspot in the Peloponnese.