Evaluating the potential and eligibility of conservation agriculture practices for carbon credits.

Carbon credits, a voluntary market mechanism to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, can incentivize climate action. We evaluate the potential and eligibility of Conservation Agriculture (CA) practices for carbon credit generation in India under Verra's VM0042 methodology. Using farmer surveys and remote sensing data, we assess the eligibility based on the following conditions: Additionality Condition (GHG emission reductions to exceed legal requirements and the weighted mean adoption rate to be < 20% of area in the baseline), Yield Penalty Condition (no > 5% decrease in crop yields), and Quantitative Adjustment Condition (reduction in chemical fertilizer use by > 5%). Our analysis shows that CA has the potential to increase farmers' carbon credit earnings by USD 18/ha and USD 30/ha in Bihar and Punjab, respectively. Punjab's ban on crop residue burning and the fact that > 20% of the area unburned limits the full economic realization of CA through carbon markets, decreasing potential income to USD 16/ha. A 60% increase in carbon prices from the current norm (USD 25) is required to encourage wider adoption of CA. Zero tillage of wheat in both Punjab and Bihar and reduction of nitrogen fertilizer overuse in Punjab fulfil all the conditions and are eligible for carbon farming projects.

Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural residue burning have increased by 75 % since 2011 across India.

Quantifying crop residue burning across India is imperative, owing to its adverse impacts on public health, the environment, and agricultural productivity. Specific information about the extent and characteristics of agricultural crop burning can verify the emission potential of agricultural systems and thereby facilitate targeted dissemination of agricultural innovations and support policymakers in mitigating the harmful effects. With a focus on district-level burning estimates, our study provides a comprehensive seasonal analysis of agricultural burning in India, including burned area, dry matter burned, and gaseous emissions for seven major crops from 2011 to 2020. To quantify the actual residues burned, we developed a remote sensing-based approach that incorporates the monitoring of agricultural burned area to quantify the actual residues burned. Including this satellite measure of the burned area greatly improves emissions estimates and minimizes error compared to typical approaches, which instead use an assumed fraction of total residues that are burned for each crop type. We estimated that emissions have increased by approximately 75 % for CO and Greenhouse gasses - CO2, CH4 and N2O - from 2011 to 2020. Total CO2e emissions increased from ~19,340 Gg.yr-1 in 2011 to ~33,834 Gg.yr-1 in 2020. Most emissions occurred during end of the Kharif season, followed by Rabi, caused by the burning of rice and wheat residues. Among the Indian states, Punjab has the highest burning activity, with 27 % (2.0 million hectares) of its total cultivated area burned in 2020. Interestingly, Madhya Pradesh has emerged as the second-largest contributor, accounting for 30 % of the total burned area across India in 2020. Our study demonstrates how satellite data can be used to map agricultural residue burning at scale, and this information can provide crucial insights for policy framing, targeting, and interventions to manage agricultural residues without compromising air quality and climate.

Impact of CGIAR maize germplasm in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This study reports on the adoption and impacts of CGIAR-related maize varieties in 18 major maize-producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) during 1995-2015. Of the 1345 maize varieties released during this timeframe, approximately 60% had a known CGIAR parentage. About 34% (9.5 million ha) of the total maize area in 2015 was cultivated with 'new' CGIAR-related maize varieties released between 1995 and 2015. In the same year, an additional 13% of the maize area was cultivated with 'old' CGIAR-related maize varieties released before 1995. The aggregate annual economic benefit of using new CGIAR-related maize germplasm for yield increase in SSA was estimated at US$1.1-1.6 billion in 2015, which we attributed equally to co-investments by CGIAR funders, public-sector national research and extension programs, and private sector partners. Given that the annual global investment in CGIAR maize breeding at its maximum was US$30 million, the benefit-cost ratios for the CGIAR investment and CGIAR-attributable portion of economic benefits varied from 12:1-17:1, under the assumption of a 5-year lag in the research investment to yield returns. The study also discusses the methodological challenges involved in large-scale impact assessments. Post-2015 CGIAR tropical maize breeding efforts have had a strong emphasis on stress tolerance.

Gender, caste, and heterogeneous farmer preferences for wheat varietal traits in rural India.

The research on crop genetic enhancement has created a continuous flow of new, improved germplasm for the benefit of farmers and consumers of the Global South during and after the Green Revolution. Understanding farmers' heterogeneous preferences for varietal traits in different market segments and incorporating the prominent ones in crop breeding programs are expected to facilitate a faster diffusion of these new varieties. Albeit knowing little about farmers' trait preferences in South Asia, public-sector breeding programs prioritize yield enhancement and risk reduction over other varietal traits. Against this backdrop, we examined wheat farmers' preferences for varietal traits in Central India, where the prevailing varietal turnover rate has been meager. We conducted a ranking exercise among 120 individuals, followed by a sex-disaggregated survey with a choice experiment among 420 farm-households in 2019. The lowest varietal turnover rate was observed for the socially marginalized castes. Most women respondents were not actively involved in making decisions related to wheat cultivation, including varietal selection. However, the results indicate that marginalized caste and women farmers are open to experimentation with new varieties, as shown by their positive willingness to pay for improved varietal traits. Across the gender and caste groups, grain quality attributes (especially chapati quality) were ranked high, above the yield-enhancing and risk-ameliorating traits. From the observed patterns, one could deduce that developing and disseminating improved varieties with better grain quality and targeting women and marginalized social groups in varietal dissemination programs could enhance farmer adoption of new, improved germplasm and wheat productivity in Central India.

Trade-offs between multifunctionality and profit in tropical smallholder landscapes.

Land-use transitions can enhance the livelihoods of smallholder farmers but potential economic-ecological trade-offs remain poorly understood. Here, we present an interdisciplinary study of the environmental, social and economic consequences of land-use transitions in a tropical smallholder landscape on Sumatra, Indonesia. We find widespread biodiversity-profit trade-offs resulting from land-use transitions from forest and agroforestry systems to rubber and oil palm monocultures, for 26,894 aboveground and belowground species and whole-ecosystem multidiversity. Despite variation between ecosystem functions, profit gains come at the expense of ecosystem multifunctionality, indicating far-reaching ecosystem deterioration. We identify landscape compositions that can mitigate trade-offs under optimal land-use allocation but also show that intensive monocultures always lead to higher profits. These findings suggest that, to reduce losses in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, changes in economic incentive structures through well-designed policies are urgently needed.

Apparent Gains, Hidden Costs: Examining Adoption Drivers, Yield, and Profitability Outcomes of Rotavator Tillage in Wheat Systems in Nepal.

The 'high speed' rotavator is used for shallow tillage to create a fine tilth and incorporate crop residues, often with a single tractor pass. Rotavator tillage has spread quickly in many parts of South Asia, despite short-term experimental trials suggesting deteriorating soil quality and crop yield penalties. Evidence of rotavator impacts on farmer fields across soil gradients and time is largely absent. From a farm household survey conducted among wheat farmers in Nepal, we estimate wheat yield and profitability outcomes for rotavator adopters and non-adopters using propensity score matching. We find that rotavator adoption leads to inferior outcomes, despite significant cost savings for land preparation (US$ 11-15 per hectare). With rotavator adoption, farmers lose about 284-309 kg of wheat grain and about US$ 93-101 of profits on average per hectare per season, and these penalties increase with longer-term use of the technology. Adoption of rotavator appears to be driven by the cost and time savings for land preparation. Against this backdrop, new policy and extension efforts are required that discourage rotavator use and favour more sustainable tillage technologies.

Does caste determine farmer access to quality information?

This paper explores the social inclusiveness of agricultural extension services in India. We estimate the probability and frequency of farmers' access to extension services and resulting changes in crop income across different caste groups. The literature suggests that caste-based social segregation manifests in various spheres of life, and perpetuates economic inequality and oppression. An econometric analysis of nationally-representative data from rural India verifies this with respect to the agricultural sector. Farmers belonging to the socially-marginalized castes are found to have a lower chance of accessing the public extension services, primarily due to their inferior resource-endowment status. Contacting extension agents at least once increased the average annual crop income by about 12 thousand Indian rupees per household, which is equivalent to 36% of the annual crop income of those without access to extension services. There exists significant impact heterogeneity. Farmers from the socially-marginalized castes hardly benefited from accessing the extension services. Based on these observations, we have developed a number of policy recommendations that could improve the social inclusiveness of agricultural development strategies in rural India.

Land-use choices follow profitability at the expense of ecological functions in Indonesian smallholder landscapes.

Smallholder-dominated agricultural mosaic landscapes are highlighted as model production systems that deliver both economic and ecological goods in tropical agricultural landscapes, but trade-offs underlying current land-use dynamics are poorly known. Here, using the most comprehensive quantification of land-use change and associated bundles of ecosystem functions, services and economic benefits to date, we show that Indonesian smallholders predominantly choose farm portfolios with high economic productivity but low ecological value. The more profitable oil palm and rubber monocultures replace forests and agroforests critical for maintaining above- and below-ground ecological functions and the diversity of most taxa. Between the monocultures, the higher economic performance of oil palm over rubber comes with the reliance on fertilizer inputs and with increased nutrient leaching losses. Strategies to achieve an ecological-economic balance and a sustainable management of tropical smallholder landscapes must be prioritized to avoid further environmental degradation.

Production diversity and dietary diversity in smallholder farm households.

Undernutrition and micronutrient malnutrition remain problems of significant magnitude in large parts of the developing world. Improved nutrition requires not only better access to food for poor population segments, but also higher dietary quality and diversity. Because many of the poor and undernourished people are smallholder farmers, diversifying production on these smallholder farms is widely perceived as a useful approach to improve dietary diversity. However, empirical evidence on the link between production and consumption diversity is scarce. Here, this issue is addressed with household-level data from Indonesia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Malawi. Regression models show that on-farm production diversity is positively associated with dietary diversity in some situations, but not in all. When production diversity is already high, the association is not significant or even turns negative, because of foregone income benefits from specialization. Analysis of other factors reveals that market access has positive effects on dietary diversity, which are larger than those of increased production diversity. Market transactions also tend to reduce the role of farm diversity for household nutrition. These results suggest that increasing on-farm diversity is not always the most effective way to improve dietary diversity in smallholder households and should not be considered a goal in itself. Additional research is needed to better understand how agriculture and food systems can be made more nutrition-sensitive in particular situations.