The Predicted Potential Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Epidemic in Tamil Nadu, South India.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence and incidence of TB before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Tamil Nadu, south India. METHODS: In the present study, the effect of COVID-19 epidemiology on the TB epidemic was assessed by the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered), a compartmental epidemiological model. The model input parameters on compartments of TB and incidence of COVID-19 were collected from the published literature. Based on the data collected, point prevalence and incidence of TB per 100,000 population is calculated with and without COVID-19. A prediction was conducted up to 2025, trend analysis was performed, and a trend chi-square test and chi-square test of independence were used to test the difference between the prevalence with and without COVID-19. R software 2000 (R 4.0.0) was used for analysis. RESULTS: The TB prevalence without and with COVID-19 decreases from 289 in 2020 to 271 in 2025 and from 289 in 2020 to 269 in 2025, respectively. Similarly, the incidence of TB was decreasing from 144 in 2020 to 135 in 2025 without COVID-19 and 143 in 2020 to 134 in 2025 with COVID-19. Though the TB burden is decreasing over the years, the trend was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). With respect to the district level, the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19 is also found to be decreasing over the years. It was also found that the difference in the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19 was not statically significant. CONCLUSION: The results of our study shows that there was an annual decline of around 2% from 2020 to 2025 in the trend of the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19. Overall, there is a reduction, but it was not significant, and there is no significant effect of COVID-19 on TB in Tamil Nadu.

Operational Challenges in Conducting a Subnational TB Prevalence Survey in India: Lessons Learned for Resource-Limited, High-Burden Settings.

Estimating the burden of TB at the subnational level is critical to planning and prioritizing resources for TB control activities according to the local epidemiological situation. We report the experiences and operational challenges of implementing a TB prevalence survey at the subnational level in India. Information was collected from research reports that gathered data from periodic meetings, informal discussions with study teams, letters of communication, and various site visit reports. During the implementation of the survey, several challenges were encountered, including frequent turnover in human resources, lack of survey participation and community engagement, breakdown of X-ray machines, laboratory issues that delayed sputum sample testing, delays in X-ray reading, and network and Internet connectivity issues that impeded data management. To help ensure the survey was implemented in a timely manner, we developed several solutions, including planning ahead to anticipate challenges, ensuring timely communication, having a high commitment from all stakeholders, having strong team motivation, providing repetitive hands-on training, and involving local leaders to increase community engagement. This experience may help future states and countries that plan to conduct TB prevalence surveys to address these anticipated challenges and develop alternative strategies well in advance.

Recurrence of pulmonary tuberculosis in India: Findings from the 2019-2021 nationwide community-based TB prevalence survey.

Recurrent Tuberculosis patients contribute to a significant proportion of TB burden in India. A nationwide survey was conducted during 2019-2021 across India among adults to estimate the prevalence of TB. A total of 322480 individuals were screened and 1402 were having TB. Of this, 381 (27.1%) had recurrent TB. The crude prevalence (95% CI) of recurrent TB was 118 (107-131) per 100,000 population. The median duration between episodes of TB was 24 months. The proportion of drug resistant TB was 11.3% and 3.6% in the recurrent group and new TB patients respectively. Higher prevalence of recurrent TB was observed in elderly, males, malnourished, known diabetics, smokers, and alcohol users. (p<0.001). To prevent TB recurrence, all treated tuberculosis patients must be followed at least for 24 months, with screening for Chest X-ray, liquid culture every 6 months, smoking cessation, alcohol cessation, nutritional interventions and good diabetic management.

Prevalence and factors associated with tuberculosis infection in India.

BACKGROUND: The risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease is higher in individuals with TB infection. In a TB endemic country like India, it is essential to understand the current burden of TB infection at the population level. The objective of the present analysis is to estimate the prevalence of TB infection in India and to explore the factors associated with TB infection. METHODS: Individuals aged > 15 years in the recently completed National TB prevalence survey in India who were tested for TB infection by QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QFT-Plus) assay were considered for this sub-analysis. TB infection was defined as positive by QFT-Plus (value >0.35 IU/ml). The estimates for prevalence, prevalence ratio (PR) and adjusted risk ratio (aRR) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. RESULTS: Of the 16864 individuals analysed, the prevalence of TB infection was 22.6% (95% CI:19.4 -25.8). Factors more likely to be associated with TB infection include age > 30 years (aRR:1.49;95% CI:1.29-1.73), being male (aRR:1.26; 95%CI: 1.18-1.34), residing in urban location (aRR:1.58; 95%CI: 1.03-2.43) and past history of TB (aRR:1.49; 95%CI: 1.26-1.76). CONCLUSION: About one fourth (22.6%) of the individuals were infected with TB in India. Individuals aged > 30 years, males, residing in urban location, and those with past history of TB were more likely to have TB infection. Targeted interventions for prevention of TB and close monitoring are essential to reduce the burden of TB in India.

The Prevalence of Self-Reported Tuberculosis in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India: Evidence from the NFHS-IV and V.

INTRODUCTION: Since 1992, many rounds of the National Family Health Surveys have produced a significant quantity of data in India. The magnitude of the tuberculosis (TB) burden in Andaman and Nicobar Island can be better understood with this data. The household-level information on self-reported TB may provide useful information on the prevalence and distribution of TB as well as care-seeking behaviour. The primary objective is to analyse the data from the NFHS-IV and NFHS-V to understand the prevalence of self-reported TB as well as healthcare-seeking patterns for TB in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. METHODOLOGY: We performed secondary data analysis of NFHS-IV and NFHS-V data. After taking into consideration the survey's cluster design and sampling weights, the prevalence was estimated. The association of identified factors with self-reported TB was investigated using the chi-square and logistic regression models. RESULTS: The point prevalence of self-reported TB was 615 (418, 873) and 221 (122, 367) in the NFHS-IV and NFHS-V, respectively (p = 0.012). The elderly, those from rural areas, those belonging to a tribe, and those with a poor wealth index were more likely to report TB. Self-reported TB prevalence was higher in the Nicobar district. There is an increase in a significant proportion of individuals not seeking care. CONCLUSION: The NFHS-IV and NFHS-V show a decline in self-reported TB, which is consistent with national estimates. However, the enhanced TB case detection in individuals at high risk of TB among the Nicobar districts and tribal communities could significantly contribute to the fight against tuberculosis. Improved awareness of TB could improve care seeking for TB.

Holistic Approach to Enhance Airborne Infection Control Practices in Health Care Facilities Involved in the Management of Tuberculosis in a Metropolitan City in India - An Implementation Research.

Background: Airborne infection control (AIC) is a less focused aspect of tuberculosis (TB) prevention. We describe AIC practices in primary health care centres, awareness and practices of AIC among health care providers (HCPs) and TB patients. We implemented a package of interventions to improve awareness and practices among them and assessed its impact. Methodology: The study used a quasi-experimental study design. A semi-structured checklist was used for health facility assessment and a self-administered questionnaire of HCPs. Pre- and postintervention assessments were made in urban primary health centers (UPHCs), HCPs, and patients. Interventions included sharing facility-specific recommendations, AIC plans and guidelines, HCP training, and patient education. Statistical difference between the two time periods was assessed using the Chi-square test. Results: A total of 23 and 25 UPHCs were included for pre- and postintervention assessments. All 25 centers participated in interventions. Open areas were >20% of ground area in all facilities. No AIC committee was present in any of the facilities at both pre- and postintervention. Of all HCPs, 7% (23/337) versus 65% (202/310) had undergone AIC training. Good awareness improved from 24% (81/337) to 71% (220/310) after intervention (P < 0.001). Appropriate cough hygiene was known to 20% (51/262) versus 58% (152/263) patients at two assessments (P < 0.001). Conclusion: Comprehensive intervention, including supportive supervision of health centers, training of HCPs, and patient education, can improve AIC practices.

A study on tuberculosis disease disclosure patterns and its associated factors: Findings from a prospective observational study in Chennai.

BACKGROUND: Disclosure of tuberculosis (TB) status by patients is a critical step in their treatment cascade of care. There is a lack of systematic assessment of TB disclosure patterns and its positive outcomes which happens dynamically over the disease period of individual patients with their family and wider social network relations. METHODS: This prospective observational study was conducted in Chennai Corporation treatment units during 2019-2021. TB patients were recruited and followed-up from treatment initiation to completion. Information on disease disclosures made to different social members at different time points, and outcomes were collected and compared. Bivariate and multi variate analysis were used to identify the patients and contact characteristics predictive of TB disclosure status. RESULTS: A total of 466 TB patients were followed-up, who listed a total of 4039 family, extra familial and social network contacts of them. Maximum disclosures were made with family members (93%) and half of the relatives, occupational contacts and friendship contacts (44-58%) were disclosed within 15 days of treatment initiation. Incremental disclosures made during the 150-180 days of treatment were highest among neighbourhood contacts (12%), and was significantly different between treatment initiation and completion period. Middle aged TB patients (31 years and 46-55 years) were found less likely to disclose (AOR 0.56 and 0.46 respectively; p<0.05) and illiterates were found more likely to disclose their TB status (AOR 3.91; p<0.05). Post the disclosure, family contacts have mostly provided resource support (44.90%) and two third of all disclosed contacts have provided emotional support for TB patients (>71%). CONCLUSION: Findings explain that family level disclosures were predominant and disclosures made to extra familial network contacts significantly increased during the latter part of treatment. Emotional support was predominantly received by TB patients from all their contacts post disclosure. Findings could inform in developing interventions to facilitate disclosure of disease status in a beneficial way for TB patients.

An influence of dew point temperature on the occurrence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis disease in Chennai, India.

Climate factors such as dew point temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric temperature may be crucial for the spread of tuberculosis. This study was conducted for the first time to investigate the relationship of climatic factors with TB occurrence in an Indian setting. Daily tuberculosis notification data during 2008-2015 were generated from the National Treatment Elimination Program, and analogous daily climatic data were obtained from the Regional Meteorological Centre at Chennai city, Tamil Nadu, India. The decomposition method was adopted to split the series into deterministic and non-deterministic components, such as seasonal, non-seasonal, trend and cyclical, and non-deterministic climate factors. A generalized linear model was used to assess the relation independently. TB disease progression from latent stage infection to active was supported by higher dew point temperature and moderate temperature. It had a significant association with TB progression in the summer and monsoon seasons. The relative humidity may be favored in the winter and post-monsoon. The water tiny dew droplets may support the TB bacterium to recuperate in the environment.

An economic evaluation of implementing a decentralized dengue screening intervention under the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme in Tamil Nadu, South India.

BACKGROUND: Lack of effective early screening is a major obstacle for reducing the fatality rate and disease burden of dengue. In light of this, the government of Tamil Nadu has adopted a decentralized dengue screening strategy at the primary healthcare (PHC) facilities using blood platelet count. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of a decentralized screening strategy for dengue at PHC facilities compared with the current strategy at the tertiary health facility (THC) level. METHODS: Decision tree analysis followed a hypothetical cohort of 1000 suspected dengue cases entering the model. The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed at a 3% discount rate for the proposed and current strategy. The outcomes are expressed in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per quality-adjusted life years gained. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were done to check the uncertainty in the outcome. RESULTS: The proposed strategy was found to be cost-saving and ICER was estimated to be -41 197. PSA showed that the proposed strategy had a 0.84 probability of being an economically dominant strategy. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed strategy is cost-saving, however, it is recommended to consider optimal population coverage, costs to economic human resources and collateral benefits of equipment.

Prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis and associated risk factors: A community survey in Thirvallur District, south India.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) prevalence surveys add to the active case detection in the community level burden of TB both national and regional levels. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in the community. METHODS: Household community-based tuberculosis disease survey was conducted targeting 69054 population from 43 villages of 5 blocks in Tiruvallure district adopting cluster sampling methodology of ≥15 years old adult rural population of South India during 2015-2018. All eligible individuals with suspected symptoms of PTB were screened with chest X-ray. Two sputum specimens (one spot and the other early morning sample) were collected for M.tb smear and culture examination. Conversely demographical, smoking and alcohol drinking habits information were also collected to explore the risk factor. Stepwise logistic regression was employed to associate risk factors for PTB. RESULTS: A total of 62494 were screened among 69054 eligible population, of whom 6340 were eligible for sputum specimen collection. Sputum for M.tb smear and culture examination were collected in 93% of participants. The derived prevalence of PTB was 307/100000 population (smear-positive 130; culture positive 277). As expected that PTB has decreased substantially compared to preceding surveys and it showed that older age, male, low BMI, diabetes, earlier history of TB and alcohol users were significantly associated (p < .0001) with an increased risk of developing PTB. CONCLUSION: Upshot of the active survey has established a reduction in the prevalence of PTB in the rural area which can be accredited to better programmatic implementation and success of the National TB Control Programme in this district. It also has highlighted the need for risk reduction interventions accelerate faster elimination of TB.

Economic evaluation of implementing a decentralised Hepatitis B virus diagnostic intervention under National Viral Hepatitis Control Programme in Tamil Nadu, South India.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of decentralised diagnostic programme for hepatitis B virus (HBV) implemented in Tamil Nadu, South India with specific focus on a selected key population at increased risk of HBV. METHODS: A combination of decision tree and Markov model was developed to compare cost-effectiveness of the new and standard strategy. Cost and health outcomes were calculated based on the proportion of cohort in each respective health state. Total costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the intervention and comparator strategies were calculated. The model parameter uncertainties were evaluated by sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Considering decentralised HBV diagnosis followed by early treatment and vaccination for negatives for a cohort of 1000 population resulted in 505 QALYs gained and incremental cost-saving of 180749 ($2620). The decentralised diagnostic strategy could avert 294 deaths, gain 293 life years and reduce out-of-pocket expenditure of 3274 ($47) per person for HBV management. CONCLUSION: Decentralised HBV diagnosis followed by early treatment and vaccination for negatives in Tamil Nadu can save lives and reduce out-of-pocket expenditures compared to standard strategy.

OBJECTIF: Evaluer le rapport coût-efficacité du programme de diagnostic décentralisé du virus de l'hépatite B (VHB) mis en œuvre au Tamil Nadu, dans le sud de l'Inde, avec un accent particulier sur une population clé sélectionnée à risque accru du VHB. MÉTHODES: Une combinaison d'arbre de décision et de modèle de Markov a été développée pour comparer la rentabilité de la stratégie nouvelle et standard. Les coûts et les résultats pour la santé ont été calculés sur base de la proportion de la cohorte dans chaque état de santé respectif. Les coûts totaux, les années de vie corrigées de la qualité (QALY), le rapport coût-efficacité supplémentaire de l'intervention et les stratégies de comparaison ont été calculés. Les incertitudes des paramètres du modèle ont été évaluées par analyse de sensibilité. RÉSULTATS: La prise en compte d'un diagnostic décentralisé du VHB suivi d'un traitement précoce et d'une vaccination des cas négatifs pour une cohorte de 1000 habitants a permis de gagner 505 QALY et d'économiser des coûts supplémentaires de ₹180.749 (2.620 USD). La stratégie de diagnostic décentralisée pourrait éviter 294 décès, gagner 293 années de vie et réduire les dépenses personnelles de ₹3274 (47 USD) par personne pour la prise en charge du VHB. CONCLUSION: Le diagnostic décentralisé du VHB suivi d'un traitement précoce et de la vaccination des cas négatifs au Tamil Nadu peut sauver des vies et réduire les dépenses personnelles par rapport à la stratégie standard.

Burden of pulmonary tuberculosis in modern prison: A cross sectional prevalence survey from south India.

BACKGROUND: The risk of spread of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) disease depends on several factors. One important factor is the situational and environmental vulnerabilities of the prison setting. Study was conducted in central prison in Chennai, south state, India to estimate the prevalence of PTB disease in 2013. METHODS: All inmates aged 15 years and above were available during survey period screened for symptoms suggestive of PTB and X-ray taken chest PA view. Two sputum specimens were collected for smear and culture examination. All culture positive samples were used for drug sensitivity testing for first line anti-TB drugs. Information on demographic, life style characteristics, past history of PTB treatment were collected through pre-coded interview schedule. RESULTS: Of 1854 jail inmates were screened, prevalence of symptoms suggestive of PTB was 35% and it was dominated by males. Out of all screened 16 PTB cases are diagnosed and the estimated overall prevalence of PTB among prison inmates was 16/1854 (863/100,000 population). CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence PTB was 2.5 times higher as compared to prevalence of PTB in general population in the same areas, and 3.4 times higher as compared to national average.

Identifying costs contributing to catastrophic expenditure among TB patients registered under RNTCP in Delhi metro city in India.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) patients often incur large costs related to illness, as well as for seeking and receiving health care. Despite TB treatment being free under RNCTP, out of pocket expenditure incurred (OOP) by patients for TB diagnosis and treatment impoverishes the households. This expenditure may turn catastrophic (more than 20% of their family income) impacting adherence and leading to poor treatment outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the proportion of households experiencing catastrophic expenditure due to TB and also to find out the various costs contributing to catastrophic expenditure. METHODS: In this cohort study, 450 TB patients (including 96 children) registered under Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP) in Delhi were interviewed at three different time points (in the beginning of treatment, end of intensive phase, end of treatment). Interview schedule was used to collect information on direct medical and non-medical, and indirect costs. The TB-specific indicator of "catastrophic total costs" incorporates both, direct medical and non-medical payments for treatment such as transportation, lodging charges and indirect costs such as wage loss. RESULTS: A total of 450 patients were enrolled in this study, out of which 425 were followed up to the end of treatment. It was observed that 7% of TB patients registered under RNTCP in Delhi experienced catastrophic expenditure due to TB. The total mean cost to patients with TB was Rs. 12165 (Rs. 1406 during diagnosis and Rs. 10759 during treatment). The indirect cost was higher compared to direct cost i.e.Rs. 7564 and Rs. 4601 respectively). CONCLUSION: This information will be useful for policy makers to design an intervention to provide financial protection to TB patients. In addition, findings of this study will aid in providing baseline evidence to periodically measure the OOP which is the one of the End TB strategy target.

Inflammatory diarrhea due to enteroaggregative Escherichia coli: evidence from clinical and mice model studies.

BACKGROUND: This study was conducted to determine the role of enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (EAEC) in inflammatory diarrhea among hospitalized patients in Kolkata. The inflammatory pathogenesis of EAEC was established in mice model and histopathological studies. Presence of fecal leucocytes (FLCs) can be suspected for EAEC infection solely or as a mixed with other enteric pathogens. METHODS: Active surveillance was conducted for 2 years on 2 random days per week with every 5th patient admitted to the Infectious Diseases Hospital (IDH). Diarrheal samples were processed by conventional culture, microscopy, ELISA and molecular methods. Two EAEC isolated as sole pathogens were examined in mice after induced intestinal infection. The intestinal tissue samples were processed to analyze the histological changes. RESULTS: Of the 2519 samples screened, fecal leucocytes, erythrocytes and occult blood were detected in 1629 samples. Most of the patients had acute watery diarrhea (75%) and vomiting (78%). Vibrio cholerae O1 was the main pathogen in patients of 5-10 years age group (33%). Shigellosis was more in children from 2-5 years of age (19%), whereas children <2 years appeared to be susceptible for infection caused by EAEC (16%). When tested for the pathogenicity, the EAEC strains colonized well and caused inflammatory infection in the gut mucosa of BALB/C mice. CONCLUSION: This hospital-based surveillance revealed prevalence of large number of inflammatory diarrhea. EAEC was the suspected pathogen and <2 years children appeared to be the most susceptible age group. BALB/C mice may be a suitable animal model to study the EAEC-mediated pathogenesis.