Realised rather than fundamental thermal niches predict site occupancy: Implications for climate change forecasting.

Thermal performance traits are regularly used to make forecasts of the responses of ectotherms to anthropogenic environmental change, but such forecasts do not always differentiate between fundamental and realised thermal niches. Here we determine the relative extents to which variation in the fundamental and realised thermal niches accounts for current variation in species abundance and occupancy and assess the effects of niche-choice on future-climate response estimations. We investigated microclimate and macroclimate temperatures alongside abundance, occupancy, critical thermal limits and foraging activity of 52 ant species (accounting for >95% individuals collected) from a regional assemblage from across the Western Cape Province, South Africa, between 2003 and 2014. Capability of a species to occupy sites experiencing the most extreme temperatures, coupled with breadth of realised niche, explained most deviance in occupancy (up to 75%), while foraging temperature range and body mass explained up to 50.5% of observed variation in mean species abundance. When realised niches are used to forecast responses to climate change, large positive and negative effects among species are predicted under future conditions, in contrast to the forecasts of minimal impacts on all species that are indicated by fundamental niche predictions.

An assessment of the effectiveness of a long-term ecosystem restoration project in a fynbos shrubland catchment in South Africa.

The long-term effectiveness of ecological restoration projects is seldom reported in the scientific literature. This paper reports on the outcomes of ecosystem restoration following the clearing of alien Pinus plantations and associated alien plant invasions over 13 years from an 8000 ha mountain catchment in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. We examined the goals, methods and costs of management, and the ecological outcomes in terms of reduced alien plant cover and native vegetation recovery. While the goals were not explicitly formulated at the outset, they were implicitly focussed on the conservation of water resources, the restoration of biodiversity, and the provision of employment. Initially, most (>90% of the area) was occupied by Pinus and Acacia invasions, mostly at low densities. The cost of control (initial clearing and up to 16 follow-up visits to remove emergent seedlings) amounted to almost ZAR 50 million (14 ZAR âˆ¼ 1US$). Although the cover of alien plants was greatly reduced, over 1000 ha still support dense or medium invasions (>25% cover), and the area occupied by scattered Pinus plants increased by over 3000 ha to >5700 ha. A reliance on passive restoration had not yet resulted in full recovery of the natural vegetation. The mean number of species, and total projected canopy cover on 50 m2 plots was lower in cleared than in comparable reference sites with pristine vegetation (21 vs 32 species/plot, and 94 vs 168% cover respectively). While the project is ongoing, we conclude that the entire area could revert to a more densely-invaded state in the event of a reduction of funding. Several changes to the management approach (including the integrated use of fire, a greater use of power tools, and active re-seeding of cleared areas with indigenous shrubs) would substantially increase the future effectiveness of the project and the sustainability of its outcomes.