What is the recurrence rate of postmenopausal bleeding in women who have a thin endometrium during a first episode of postmenopausal bleeding?

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence and significance of recurrent postmenopausal bleeding among women diagnosed with an endometrial thickness < or =4 mm after a first episode of postmenopausal bleeding. METHODS: Consecutive patients not using hormone replacement therapy (HRT) presenting with a first episode of postmenopausal bleeding and an endometrial thickness < or =4 mm at transvaginal ultrasonography (TVU) were managed expectantly. In case of recurrent bleeding, the patient was evaluated according to the hospital's local policy with TVU, office endometrial sampling, hysteroscopy or dilatation and curettage (D&C) or a combination of these tests. We evaluated the incidence of recurrent bleeding, potential risk factors for recurrent bleeding, and the diagnosis made after recurrent bleeding. RESULTS: A total of 607 patients were registered with a first episode of postmenopausal bleeding, of whom 249 had an endometrial thickness < or =4 mm. Follow-up took place with a median of 174 weeks (range: 4-250 weeks). During follow-up, 25 of the 249 patients (10%; 95% CI: 6.6-14%) had recurrent bleeding. Median time until recurrence of bleeding was 49 weeks (range: 9-186 weeks). Two patients with recurrent bleeding turned out to have an endometrial carcinoma (8%; 95% CI: 2.2-25%), and 1 patient had a malignant melanoma. Time since menopause, age, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes and anticoagulants were not predictive for recurrent bleeding. CONCLUSION: The recurrence rate after a first episode of postmenopausal bleeding managed expectantly is low and cannot be predicted by patient characteristics. Patients with recurrent bleeding should be re-evaluated, as they bear a considerable risk of carcinoma.

The relation between age, time since menopause, and endometrial cancer in women with postmenopausal bleeding.

The objective is to assess among women with postmenopausal bleeding the relationship of age and time since menopause on one hand and the presence of endometrial cancer and atypical hyperplasia on the other hand. In a multicenter prospective cohort study, 614 women presenting with postmenopausal bleeding were included. Women underwent transvaginal sonography and, in cases where the endometrial thickness was >4 mm, endometrial sampling. Splines were used to assess the association between each of the continuous variables and (pre)malignancy of the endometrium. Subsequently, univariate and multivariate analysis were performed. The average age for women without (pre)malignancy was 61.7 years (SD 9.8). As malignant and premalignant cases were found to have similar age, these subgroups were merged in the analyses. Age was an independent predictor of (pre)malignancy. In women younger than 55 years, the odds ratio was 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-3.3) for each year under 55 years of age and 1.03 (95% CI: 1.00-1.06) for each year over 55 years of age. The risk of (pre)malignancy of the endometrium was 4.9% in women less than 3 years postmenopausal versus 19.7% in women more than 20 years postmenopausal. However, in a multivariate analysis only age contributed to the prediction of risk. This study demonstrates that, in postmenopausal women with vaginal bleeding, the risk of (pre)malignancy of the endometrium is low in women under 50 years of age, increases considerably until 55 years of age, and rises only modestly with further advancing age. Future studies should explore whether these findings can be incorporated in the diagnostic work-up of women with postmenopausal bleeding.