Natural History of Asymptomatic Moderate Carotid Artery Stenosis in a Large Community-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Moderate carotid artery stenosis is a poorly defined risk factor for ischemic stroke. As such, practice recommendations are lacking. In this study, we describe the long-term risk of stroke in patients with moderate asymptomatic stenosis in an integrated health care system. METHODS: All adult patients with asymptomatic moderate (50%-69%) internal carotid artery stenosis between 2008 and 2012 were identified, with follow-up through 2017. The primary outcome was acute ischemic stroke attributed to the ipsilateral carotid artery. Stroke rates were calculated using competing risk analysis. Secondary outcomes included disease progression, ipsilateral intervention, and long-term survival. RESULTS: Overall, 11 614 arteries with moderate stenosis in 9803 patients were identified. Mean age was 74.2±9.9 years with 51.4% women. Mean follow-up was 5.1±2.9 years. There were 180 ipsilateral ischemic strokes (1.6%) identified (crude annual risk, 0.31% [95% CI, 0.21%-0.41%]), of which thirty-one (17.2%) underwent subsequent intervention. Controlling for death and intervention as competing risks, the cumulative incidence of stroke was 1.2% (95% CI, 1.0%-1.4%) at 5 years and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.7%-2.4%) at 10 years. Of identified strokes, 50 (27.8%) arteries had progressed to severe stenosis or occlusion. During follow-up, there were 17 029 carotid studies performed in 5951 patients, revealing stenosis progression in 1674 (14.4%) arteries, including 1614 (13.9%) progressing to severe stenosis and 60 (0.5%) to occlusion. The mean time to stenosis progression was 2.6±2.1 years. Carotid intervention occurred in 708 arteries (6.1%). Of these, 66.1% (468/708) had progressed to severe stenosis. The overall mortality rate was 44.5%, with 10.5% of patients lost to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based sample of patients with asymptomatic moderate internal carotid artery stenosis followed for an average of 5 years, the cumulative incidence of stroke is low out to 10 years. Future research is needed to optimize management strategies for this population.

Incidence of Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Asymptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis Without Surgical Intervention.

Importance: Optimal management of patients with asymptomatic severe carotid stenosis is uncertain, due to advances in medical care and a lack of contemporary data comparing medical and surgical treatment. Objective: To estimate stroke outcomes among patients with medically treated asymptomatic severe carotid stenosis who did not undergo surgical intervention. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study that included 3737 adult participants with asymptomatic severe (70%-99%) carotid stenosis diagnosed between 2008 and 2012 and no prior intervention or ipsilateral neurologic event in the prior 6 months. Participants received follow-up through 2019, and all were members of an integrated US regional health system serving 4.5 million members. Exposures: Imaging diagnosis of asymptomatic carotid stenosis of 70% to 99%. Main Outcomes and Measures: Occurrence of ipsilateral carotid-related acute ischemic stroke. Censoring occurred with death, disenrollment, or ipsilateral intervention. Results: Among 94 822 patients with qualifying imaging studies, 4230 arteries in 3737 (mean age, 73.8 [SD 9.5 years]; 57.4% male) patients met selection criteria including 2539 arteries in 2314 patients who never received intervention. The mean follow-up in this cohort was 4.1 years (SD 3.6 years). Prior to any intervention, there were 133 ipsilateral strokes with a mean annual stroke rate of 0.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7%-1.2%). The Kaplan-Meier estimate of ipsilateral stroke by 5 years was 4.7% (95% CI, 3.9%-5.7%). Conclusions and Relevance: In a community-based cohort of patients with asymptomatic severe carotid stenosis who did not undergo surgical intervention, the estimated rate of ipsilateral carotid-related acute ischemic stroke was 4.7% over 5 years. These findings may inform decision-making regarding surgical and medical treatment for patients with asymptomatic severe carotid artery stenosis.

Establishing a carotid artery stenosis disease cohort for comparative effectiveness research using natural language processing.

OBJECTIVE: Investigation of asymptomatic carotid stenosis treatment is hindered by the lack of a contemporary population-based disease cohort. We describe the use of natural language processing (NLP) to identify stenosis in patients undergoing carotid imaging. METHODS: Adult patients with carotid imaging between 2008 and 2012 in a large integrated health care system were identified and followed through 2017. An NLP process was developed to characterize carotid stenosis according to the Society of Radiologists in Ultrasound (for ultrasounds) and North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial (NASCET) (for axial imaging) guidelines. The resulting algorithm assessed text descriptors to categorize normal/non-hemodynamically significant stenosis, moderate or severe stenosis as well as occlusion in both carotid ultrasound (US) and axial imaging (computed tomography and magnetic resonance angiography [CTA/MRA]). For US reports, internal carotid artery systolic and diastolic velocities and velocity ratios were assessed and matched for laterality to supplement accuracy. To validate the NLP algorithm, positive predictive value (PPV or precision) and sensitivity (recall) were calculated from simple random samples from the population of all imaging studies. Lastly, all non-normal studies were manually reviewed for confirmation for prevalence estimates and disease cohort assembly. RESULTS: A total of 95,896 qualifying index studies (76,276 US and 19,620 CTA/MRA) were identified among 94,822 patients including 1059 patients who underwent multiple studies on the same day. For studies of normal/non-hemodynamically significant stenosis arteries, the NLP algorithm showed excellent performance with a PPV of 99% for US and 96.5% for CTA/MRA. PPV/sensitivity to identify a non-normal artery with correct laterality in the CTA/MRA and US samples were 76.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 74.1%-79.5%)/93.1% (95% CI, 91.1%-94.8%) and 74.7% (95% CI, 69.3%-79.5%)/94% (95% CI, 90.2%-96.7%), respectively. Regarding cohort assembly, 15,522 patients were identified with diseased carotid artery, including 2674 exhibiting equal bilateral disease. This resulted in a laterality-specific cohort with 12,828 moderate, 5283 severe, and 1895 occluded arteries and 326 diseased arteries with unknown stenosis. During follow-up, 30.1% of these patients underwent 61,107 additional studies. CONCLUSIONS: Use of NLP to detect carotid stenosis or occlusion can result in accurate exclusion of normal/non-hemodynamically significant stenosis disease states with more moderate precision with lesion identification, which can substantially reduce the need for manual review. The resulting cohort allows for efficient research and holds promise for similar reporting in other vascular diseases.

Long-term stroke risk with carotid endarterectomy in patients with severe carotid stenosis.

OBJECTIVE: Informed debate regarding the optimal use of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) for stroke risk reduction requires contemporary assessment of both long-term risk and periprocedural risk. In this study, we report long-term stroke and death risk after CEA in a large integrated health care system. METHODS: All patients with documented severe (70%-99%) stenosis from 2008 to 2012 who underwent CEA were identified and stratified by asymptomatic or symptomatic indication. Those with prior ipsilateral interventions were excluded. Patients were followed up through 2017 for the primary outcomes of any stroke/death within 30 days of intervention and long-term ipsilateral ischemic stroke; secondary outcomes were any stroke and overall survival. RESULTS: Overall, 1949 patients (63.2% male; mean age, 71.3 ± 8.9 years) underwent 2078 primary CEAs, 1196 (58%) for asymptomatic stenosis and 882 (42%) for symptomatic stenosis. Mean follow-up was 5.5 ± 2.7 years. Median time to surgery was 72.0 (interquartile range, 38.5-198.0) days for asymptomatic patients and 21.0 (interquartile range, 5.0-55.0) days for symptomatic patients (P < .001). Most of the patients' demographics and characteristics were similar in both groups. Controlled blood pressure rates were similar at the time of CEA. Baseline statin use was seen in 60.5% of the asymptomatic group compared with 39.9% in the symptomatic group (P < .001), and statin adherence by 80% medication possession ratio was 19.3% asymptomatic vs 12.4% symptomatic (P < .001). The crude overall 30-day any stroke/death rates were 0.9% and 1.5% for the asymptomatic group and the symptomatic group, respectively. The 5-year risk of ipsilateral stroke and a combined end point of any stroke/death by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were 2.5% and 28.7% for the asymptomatic group and 4.0% and 31.4% for the symptomatic group, respectively. Unadjusted cumulative all-cause survival was 74.2% for the asymptomatic group and 71.8% for the symptomatic group at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: In a contemporary review of CEA, outcomes for either operative indication show low adverse events perioperatively and low long-term stroke risk up to 5 years. These results are well within consensus guidelines and published trial outcomes and should help inform the discussion around optimal CEA use for severe carotid stenosis.