Population genetics and geographic origins of mallards harvested in northwestern Ohio.

The genetic composition of mallards in eastern North America has been changed by release of domestically-raised, game-farm mallards to supplement wild populations for hunting. We sampled 296 hatch-year mallards harvested in northwestern Ohio, October-December 2019. The aim was to determine their genetic ancestry and geographic origin to understand the geographic extent of game-farm mallard introgression into wild populations in more westward regions of North America. We used molecular analysis to detect that 35% of samples were pure wild mallard, 12% were early generation hybrids between wild and game-farm mallards (i.e., F1-F3), and the remaining 53% of samples were assigned as part of a hybrid swarm. Percentage of individuals in our study with some form of hybridization with game-farm mallard (65%) was greater than previously detected farther south in the mid-continent (~4%), but less than the Atlantic coast of North America (~ 92%). Stable isotope analysis using δ2Hf suggested that pure wild mallards originated from areas farther north and west than hybrid mallards. More specifically, 17% of all Ohio samples had δ2Hf consistent with more western origins in the prairies, parkland, or boreal regions of the mid-continent of North America, with 55%, 35%, and 10% of these being genetically wild, hybrid swarm, and F3, respectively. We conclude that continued game-farm introgression into wild mallards is not isolated to the eastern population of mallards in North America, and may be increasing and more widespread than previously detected. Mallards in our study had greater incidence of game-farm hybridization than other locales in the mid-continent but less than eastern North American regions suggesting further need to understand game-farm mallard genetic variation and movement across the continent.

Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate.

Grasslands, and the depressional wetlands that exist throughout them, are endangered ecosystems that face both climate and land-use change pressures. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to manage the existing fragments of these ecosystems to serve as critical breeding habitat for migratory birds. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains millions of depressional wetlands that produce between 50% and 80% of the continent's waterfowl population. Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR, an area where over half of the depressional wetlands have been drained. The implications of these projections suggest a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR would be needed to sustain waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these modeled results indicating how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl-breeding habitat using up-to-date climate model projections and a newly developed model for simulating prairie-pothole wetland hydrology. We also presented changes to the number of "May ponds," a metric used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations and establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and two emission scenarios, we found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds would shift in the future. However, our results projected a 12% decrease to 1% increase in May pond numbers when comparing the most recent climate period (1989-2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070-2099). When combined, our results suggest areas in the PPR that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding-duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.