Refining Bayesian hierarchical MPT modeling: Integrating prior knowledge and ordinal expectations.

Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models are a broad class of statistical models used to test sophisticated psychological theories. The research questions derived from these theories often go beyond simple condition effects on parameters and involve ordinal expectations (e.g., the same-direction effect on the memory parameter is stronger in one experimental condition than another) or disordinal expectations (e.g., the effect reverses in one experimental condition). Here, we argue that by refining common modeling practices, Bayesian hierarchical models are well suited to estimate and test these expectations. Concretely, we show that the default priors proposed in the literature lead to nonsensical predictions for individuals and the population distribution, leading to problems not only in model comparison but also in parameter estimation. Rather than relying on these priors, we argue that MPT modelers should determine priors that are consistent with their theoretical knowledge. In addition, we demonstrate how Bayesian model comparison may be used to test ordinal and disordinal interactions by means of Bayes factors. We apply the techniques discussed to empirical data from Bell et al. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 41, 456-472 (2015).

Corrigendum to "Expert management of congenital portosystemic shunts and their complications" [JHEP Reports 6 (2024)].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.jhepr.2023.100933.].

Enhanced source memory for emotionally valenced sources: does an affective orienting task make the difference?

Previous research on whether source memory is enhanced for emotionally valenced sources yielded inconclusive results. To identify potential boundary conditions, we tested whether encoding instructions that promote affective versus different types of non-affective item-source-processing foster versus hamper source-valence effects. In both experiments, we used neutral words as items superimposed on emotional (positive & negative) or neutral pictures as sources. Source pictures were selected based on valence and arousal ratings collected in a pre-study such that only valence varied across sources. Source memory was measured via multinomial modelling. In Experiment 1, we applied an affective, item-focused orienting task (OT; i.e. word-pleasantness ratings) during item-source encoding and found enhanced source memory for emotionally valenced (positive & negative) compared to neutral sources. In Experiment 2, we systematically manipulated encoding instructions and again found enhanced source memory for emotionally valenced sources with an affective OT. No such effects occurred in the non-affective conditions, where participants were instructed to integrate item and source (item-source-fit judgments), to focus on the item (living-non-living judgments), or to encode the items only, respectively. With intentional item encoding, however, source memory was surprisingly better for positive than negative sources. We conclude that source-valence effects might unfold only under affective processing.

Expert management of congenital portosystemic shunts and their complications.

Congenital portosystemic shunts are often associated with systemic complications, the most challenging of which are liver nodules, pulmonary hypertension, endocrine abnormalities, and neurocognitive dysfunction. In the present paper, we offer expert clinical guidance on the management of liver nodules, pulmonary hypertension, and endocrine abnormalities, and we make recommendations regarding shunt closure and follow-up.

The temporal development of memory processes in source monitoring: An investigation with mouse tracking.

The present study investigated whether we first remember an item (e.g., a word itself) and then its source (e.g., position on the screen) or whether the retrieval of item and source information can (partially) overlap. Participants were tested on the source either in immediate sequence to item recognition (as standard in source-monitoring research) or following as a separate block after full completion of the item recognition test to separate these processes in time, providing a baseline. Using the mouse-tracking procedure during the item and source tests, we analyzed how item and source decisions unfolded qualitatively over time. Despite no significant difference in the aggregated trajectory curvatures, more thorough analyses based on the individual trajectories revealed differences across the test formats. In the standard format, trajectories were less curved in the source than in the item test. In contrast, in the blocked format, this difference was in the other direction with source showing more curved trajectories than item. Alternative interpretations of mouse-trajectory curvatures on the source-monitoring paradigm and what their difference may imply for item and source processing are discussed.

Metacognitive differentiation of item memory and source memory in schema-based source monitoring.

Item memory and source memory are different aspects of episodic remembering. To investigate metamemory differences between them, the authors assessed systematic differences between predictions of item memory via Judgments of Learning (JOLs) and source memory via Judgments of Source (JOSs). Schema-based expectations affect JOLs and JOSs differently: Judgments are higher for expected source-item pairs (e.g., "nightstand in the bedroom") than unexpected pairs (e.g., "bed in the bathroom"), but this expectancy effect is stronger on JOSs than JOLs (Schaper et al., 2019b). The current study tested theoretical underpinnings of this difference. Due to semantic priming, JOLs should be influenced by the consistency between an item and any of the schemas activated at study. JOSs, however, should be influenced by the (in)consistency between an item and its actual source. In three experiments, source-item pairs varied in strength of consistency and inconsistency. Participants provided item-wise JOLs and JOSs. Regardless of an items' actual source, JOLs were higher the more consistent an item was with any of the source schemas, but only if that schema was activated by occurring as a source at study. JOLs were also biased by the actual source: JOLs were lower the more inconsistent an item was with its actual source. By contrast, JOSs were primarily influenced by an item's (in)consistency with its actual source (positively for consistency, negatively for inconsistency). Thus, participants metacognitively differentiated item memory and source memory. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

The role of school education in time-dependent changes of cognitive abilities in cohorts from midlife to old age.

OBJECTIVES: It is examined whether older adults' cognitive ability in terms of delayed recall and verbal fluency is improving over time, whether this occurs over all educational levels and both sexes, and whether these changes are due to increasing proportions of individuals with higher education. METHODS: Analyses are based on the German samples of the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (waves 2004 and 2013). RESULTS: Achievement levels increased over time and in all age groups. Improvements over educational levels occurred in parallel, differences between educational levels in the earlier survey were later reproduced at higher levels. Increasing proportions of individuals with higher education did not explain improvements of cognitive ability. No sex differences emerged. CONCLUSION: Improved cognitive abilities could not be explained by upward shifts of educational levels. Improvements in higher age groups may foster improved health status and prolonged self-determined life in the older population.

Is there an emotionality effect in older adults' source memory?

The goal of our research was to investigate whether older adults show a source memory enhancement for emotionally valenced sources. Additionally, building on research on the socioemotional selectivity theory and the age-related positivity effect, we tested whether older adults show a larger enhancement for positive compared to negative (and neutral) sources than younger adults. In Experiment 1 (nold = 25, nyoung = 27), we used one positive, one negative, and one neutral picture to manipulate source valence (many-to-one mapping of items to sources), whereas, in Experiment 2 (nold = 62, nyoung = 62), we used multiple pictures per source valence category (one-to-one mapping of items to sources) to counteract potential habituation effects. In both experiments, sources had medium and matching arousal levels. Items were neutral words superimposed on the source pictures. To support an implicit, natural information processing, participants rated the words in terms of pleasantness. We analyzed memory data with a multinomial processing tree model to disentangle memory processes from guessing bias. Across both experiments, an age-related positivity effect occurred in participants' pleasantness ratings. This effect, however, did not carry over to older adults' source memory. That is, in source memory, we found a general emotionality effect for younger but not for older adults and no age-related positivity effect. We propose that due to older adults' pronounced difficulties in remembering the item-to-source link (i.e., associative deficit), even a greater focus on an inherently emotional source might be insufficient to boost source memory.

Presentation of Congenital Portosystemic Shunts in Children.

BACKGROUND: Congenital portosystemic shunts (CPSS) are rare vascular anomalies resulting in communications between the portal venous system and the systemic venous circulation, affecting an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 live births. CPSS can present at any age as a multi-system disease of variable severity mimicking both common and rare pediatric conditions. CASE PRESENTATIONS: Case A: A vascular malformation was identified in the liver of a 10-year-old girl with tall stature, advanced somatic maturation, insulin resistance with hyperinsulinemia, hyperandrogenemia and transient hematuria. Work-up also suggested elevated pulmonary pressures. Case B: A young girl with trisomy 8 mosaicism with a history of neonatal hypoglycemia, transient neonatal cholestasis and tall stature presented newly increased aminotransferase levels at 6 years of age. Case C: A 3-year-old boy with speech delay, tall stature and abdominal pain underwent abdominal ultrasound (US) showing multiple liver nodules, diagnosed as liver hemangiomas by hepatic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Management and outcome: After identification of a venous malformation on liver Doppler US, all three patients were referred to a specialized liver center for further work-up within 12 to 18 months from diagnosis. Angio-computed tomography (CT) scan confirmed the presence of either an intrahepatic or extrahepatic CPSS with multiples liver nodules. All three had a hyperintense signal in the globus pallidus on T1 weighted cerebral MRI. Right heart catheterization confirmed pulmonary hypertension in cases A and C. Shunts were closed either using an endovascular or surgical approach. Liver nodules were either surgically removed if there was a risk of malignant degeneration or closely monitored by serial imaging when benign. CONCLUSION: These cases illustrate most of the common chief complaints and manifestations of CPSS. Liver Doppler US is the key to diagnosis. Considering portosystemic shunts in the diagnostic work-up of a patient with unexplained endocrine, liver, gastro-intestinal, cardiovascular, hematological, renal or neurocognitive disorder is important as prompt referral to a specialized center may significantly impact patient outcome.

Secular Improvements in Cognitive Aging: Contribution of Education, Health, and Routine Activities.

OBJECTIVES: Limited evidence exists regarding the reasons for secular changes in cognitive functioning over historical time. Thus, we examined potential explanatory factors for changes in cognitive speed, a central dimension of cognitive functioning. METHODS: Population-based data of middle-aged and older adults from Germany (N = 5443) was used with baseline participants from 2002 to 2014, comparing the time periods 2002-2014. RESULTS: Cognitive speed improved in middle-aged adults (40-65) and older adults (66+). In both age groups, increases were partly explained by education, employment status, volunteering status, routine activities, and physical functioning. Changes in education were more important in explaining increases in older than in middle-aged adults, whereas changes in health were more important for explaining increases in middle-aged adults. CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive speed increased in both age groups over historical time. Education, employment, volunteering, routine activities, and health were all important in explaining these changes, but their importance differed between age groups.

Better memory for emotional sources? A systematic evaluation of source valence and arousal in source memory.

Emotion-enhanced memory (EEM) describes the robust memory advantage of emotional over non-emotional stimuli. While extensively investigated with emotional items, it is unclear whether the EEM effect extends to source memory for a neutral item's emotional context. In two pre-registered studies, we systematically manipulated source valence (positive, negative) between participants and source arousal (high, low, neutral-low) within participants. In Experiment 1 (lab study, N = 80), we used emotional sound sources and presented them together with neutral pictures as items. In Experiment 2 (online study, N = 172), we used emotional background pictures with superimposed neutral item words to similarly manipulate source emotionality. Multinomial model-based analysis showed no general effects of valence or arousal on source memory across both experiments. Source memory was impaired for the negative high-arousing source in Experiment 1 but this did not replicate in Experiment 2. Altogether, we conclude that there are no memory-enhancing effects of source emotionality (valence, arousal, or any specific combination thereof) on source memory, dissociating emotionality effects between source and item memory. Additionally, we propose that material-dependent influences carry more weight if the used emotional material is limited in number, as is the case in the standard source-monitoring paradigm employing few sources only.

Characteristics of Growth in Children With Classic Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia due to 21-Hydroxylase Deficiency During Adrenarche and Beyond.

CONTEXT: Patients with classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) often do not achieve their full growth potential. Adrenarche may accelerate bone maturation and thereby result in decreased growth in CAH. OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to analyze the impact of growth during adrenarche on final height of adequately treated classic CAH patients. METHODS: This retrospective, multicenter study (4 academic pediatric endocrinology centers) included 41 patients with classical CAH, born 1990-2012. We assessed skeletal maturation (bone age), growth velocity, and (projected) adult height outcomes, and analyzed potential influencing factors, such as sex, genotype, and glucocorticoid therapy. RESULTS: Patients with classic CAH were shorter than peers (-0.4 SDS ±â€…0.8 SD) and their parents (corrected final height -0.6 SDS ±â€…1.0 SD). Analysis of growth during adrenarche revealed 2 different growth patterns: patients with accelerating bone age (49%), and patients with nonaccelerating bone age relative to chronological age (BA-CA). Patients with accelerating BA-CA were taller than the normal population during adrenarche years (P = 0.001) and were predicted to achieve lower adult height SDS (-0.9 SDS [95% CI, -1.3; -0.5]) than nonaccelerating patients when assessed during adrenarche (0.2 SDS [95% CI, -0.3; 0.8]). Final adult height was similarly reduced in both accelerating and nonaccelerating BA-CA groups (-0.4 SDS [95% CI, -0.9; 0.1] vs -0.3 SDS [95% CI, [-0.8; 0.1]). CONCLUSION: Patients with and without significant bone age advancement, and thus differing height prediction during adrenarche, showed similar (predicted) final height when reassessed during pubertal years. Bone age alone should not be used during adrenarche as clinical marker for metabolic control in CAH treatment.

Increasingly capable at the ripe old age? Cognitive abilities from 2004 to 2013 in Germany, Spain, and Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy is increasing in most high-income countries, but gains in life years are maximized if spent in good health and if cognitive abilities are maintained until old age. Age-related decline of cognitive abilities does nevertheless occur, but the pace of decline is decisive. This was the starting point for our study that aims to examine cohort effects of cognitive aging in women and men in Germany, Spain and Sweden by analyzing changes from 2004 to 2013 by estimating cohort effects within age groups starting from the age of 50 years. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted that was based on data of the surveys 2004 (N = 6,081) and 2013 (N = 8,650) from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The analyses were based on data of female and male respondents aged 50 years and older. Age-specific means of verbal fluency and delayed recall from the German, Spanish and Swedish samples were the cognitive domains considered in the study. RESULTS: In both domains of cognitive ability the achievements in the later surveys were higher than in the earlier ones. This was found in all countries, abut achievement levels increased markedly in the German and the Spanish samples, while the scores of the Swedish samples were not significantly different. While the highest scores were found for Sweden, Germany ranked in the middle and the lowest scores were found in the Spanish samples. Over time, the scores of the German samples approached those of Sweden. CONCLUSIONS: From the first to the second survey, improvements of older adults' cognitive abilities were found for all countries considered. This may indicate improvements of the underlying educational systems, but also increasingly stimulating general living conditions.

A novel paradigm to assess storage of sources in memory: the source recognition test with reinstatement.

The present research aimed to devise a test of source recognition that facilitates access to source information stored in memory. Therefore, we extended the standard source-monitoring paradigm, in which items are presented in a source-neutral manner during test, by a second, subsequent test with source reinstatement. In this second test, items (i.e., words) were presented with both study sources (i.e., two speakers) consecutively such that for originally studied words, one test presentation was the exact reinstatement of the original source. To validate our assumption that the test with reinstatement primarily assesses source storage, we manipulated source storage by varying encoding frequency between-participants (repetition vs. no repetition of each item-source-pair). Additionally, we varied source similarity between-participants (similar vs. dissimilar speakers). Data analyses (N = 146) based on multinomial and signal detection models showed a source memory enhancement in the second test with reinstatement compared to the first standard test, especially for similar sources. Additionally, repetition selectively benefited source memory in the second test, validating our interpretation of the second test as a measure for source storage. Altogether, our novel source recognition test offers a promising method for investigating various well-known source memory phenomena more comprehensively.

Guess what? Different source-guessing strategies for old versus new information.

The probability-matching account states that learned specific episodic contingencies of item types and source dominate over general schematic expectations in source guessing. However, recent evidence from Bell et al. [(2020). Source attributions for detected new items: Persistent evidence for schematic guessing. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 73(9), 1407-1422] suggest that this only applies to source guessing for information that is recognised as belonging to a previously encoded episode. When information was detected as being new, participants persisted in applying schematic knowledge about the sources' profession. This dissociation in source guessing for detected-old and detected-new information may have been fostered by the specific source-monitoring paradigm by Bell et al. (2020) in which sources were a group of individuals in a certain profession rather than fixed persons from that profession for whom episodic contingencies are more likely to persist also for new information. The aim of the present study was to test whether source guessing for detected-old versus detected-new information also dissociates in a more typical source-monitoring task, the doctor-lawyer paradigm, in which one individual doctor and one lawyer present profession-related information. Despite this change in paradigm, source guessing was based on the item-source contingency only for detected-old information, whereas schematic knowledge persisted for detected-new information. The present study thus adds evidence for persistent schema-based source guessing for new information.

Health behaviour of women with Turner Syndrome.

AIM: This study assessed lifestyle-related risk factors for cardiovascular disease in young women with Turner syndrome. METHODS: In 2012, we sent a questionnaire to women with Turner syndrome aged ≥18 years and living in Switzerland with questions on socio-demographic and medical data as well as health behaviour. We compared the reported lifestyle with that of women from the Swiss Health Survey 2012, a representative survey of the general population. RESULTS: Fifty-seven per cent (45/79) of women with Turner syndrome answered the questionnaire (mean age: 24 years). Eighty per cent (36/45) had never smoked compared with 58% (1156/1972) of the general population (p < 0.01). Women with Turner syndrome engaged less often in binge drinking (34% vs. 71%) (p < 0.001), but consumed alcohol equally often as the general population (p = 0.327). They performed sports as often as the general population (p = 0.34), but only one quarter (11/45) of women with Turner syndrome adhered to official physical activity recommendations. CONCLUSION: Although most women with Turner syndrome had a healthy lifestyle, only a minority had sufficient physical activity. Paediatricians should promote structured physical activity in girls with Turner syndrome from early childhood onwards to reduce their cardiovascular risk in adulthood and to increase long-term health-related quality of life.

Memory and metamemory for social interactions: Evidence for a metamemory expectancy illusion.

People do not always have accurate metacognitive awareness of the conditions that lead to good source memory. In Experiment 1, participants studied words referring to bathroom and kitchen items that were either paired with an expected or unexpected room as the source. Participants provided judgments of item and source learning after each item-source pair. In line with previous studies, participants incorrectly predicted their memory to be better for expected than for unexpected sources. Here, we show that this metamemory expectancy illusion generalizes to socially relevant stimuli. In Experiment 2, participants played a prisoner's dilemma game with trustworthy-looking and untrustworthy-looking partners who either cooperated or cheated. After each round of the game, participants provided metamemory judgments about how well they were going to remember the partner's face and behavior. On average, participants predicted their source memory to be better for behaviors that were expected based on the facial appearances of the partners. This stands in contrast to the established finding that veridical source memory is better for unexpected than expected information. Asking participants to provide metamemory judgments at encoding selectively enhanced source memory for the expected information. These results are consistent with how schematic expectations affect source memory and metamemory for nonsocial information, suggesting that both are governed by general rather than by domain-specific principles. Differences between experiments may be linked to the fact that people may have special beliefs about memory for social stimuli, such as the belief that cheaters are particularly memorable (Experiment 3).

Longer resistance of associative versus item memory to interference-based forgetting, even in older adults.

Few studies have compared interference-based forgetting between item versus associative memory. The memory-system dependent forgetting hypothesis (Hardt, Nader, & Nadel, 2013) predicts that effects of interference on associative memory should be minimal because its hippocampal representation allows pattern separation even of highly similar information. In contrast, there should be strong interference effects on extra-hippocampally represented item memory. We tested this prediction in behavioral data from 3 experiments using continuous recognition paradigms. Given older adults' greater deficits in associative than item memory, we also compared younger and older adults to test whether this associative deficit extends to greater interference susceptibility in older adults' associative memory. Experiment 1 examined item-item associative memory with participants studying unrelated word pairs continuously intermixed with item (single words) and associative (intact vs. recombined pairs) recognition tests across interference-filled lags. Experiments 2 and 3 examined item-context (i.e., source) associative memory with participants studying words in different spatial positions continuously intermixed with source-monitoring tests (presented on top vs. on bottom vs. new?) across interference-filled lags (Experiment 3 controlling for delay/decay-based effects). In all experiments, item memory declined from the first lag on. In contrast, associative memory initially remained stable, with strong evidence for null effects of interference even in older adults, but showed some declines at later lags. The data supports Hardt et al.'s proposal of differential interference-based forgetting in item versus associative memory. The results further show that the age-related associative memory deficit does not extend to greater interference-based forgetting in older adults' associative memory. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Is knowledge reliance in source guessing a cognitive trait? Examining stability across time and domain.

When people need to infer the source of information in the absence of memory, they may rely on general knowledge (e.g., stereotypes) to guess the source. Prior research documented task-related determinants and individual differences of stereotype reliance in source guessing, but little is known about the underling nature of this process. In two experiments, we tested whether a cognitive trait could account for the knowledge reliance in source guessing. Participants performed two distinct study-test cycles of a classical source-monitoring paradigm in which two person sources present stereotypical information that in a later test phase had to be attributed to its origin. In Experiment 1, both tasks used item material from the same knowledge domain (age stereotypes) and were either separated by 10 minutes or 7 days. In Experiment 2, we used item material from two different knowledge domains (Task 1: age stereotypes; Task 2: gender stereotypes). Although cross-task correlations of source-guessing parameters from Bayesian-hierarchical multinomial processing tree model analyses showed only weak positive correlations, absolute source guessing remained fairly stable within individuals across time (Experiment 1) and knowledge domains (Experiment 2). Considering statistical challenges of the assessment of relative stability via correlations, we suggest based on the stricter absolute stability criterion that source guessing rather encompasses trait-like features. We discuss implications regarding the generalizability and nature of source guessing in comparison to other cognitive processes involved in source attribution, which were highly stable in both experiments.

Testing Interactions in Multinomial Processing Tree Models.

Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models allow testing hypotheses on latent psychological processes that underlie human behavior. However, past applications of this model class have mainly been restricted to the analysis of main effects. In this paper, we adopt the interaction concept as defined in log-linear models and show why it is appropriate for MPT models. We then explain how to implement and test ordinal and disordinal two-way interaction hypotheses in MPT models. We also show how our method generalizes to higher-order interactions involving three or more factors. An empirical example from source memory and aging demonstrates the applicability of this method and allows for directly testing the associative deficit theory that age differences are larger in associative (e.g., source) memory as opposed to item memory. Throughout the paper, we explain how most analytic steps can be easily implemented in the freely available software multiTree.