Avoidable COVID-19-related deaths and hospitalizations in Brazil, 2020-2023.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of avoidable COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations in Brazil. METHODS: Secondary data on COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations were related to two measures of cumulative vaccine coverage (in the last six months and before this period) by negative binomial regression to estimate population-level protective effectiveness (PLPE) against severe disease. The latter includes the overall protective effect of all COVID-19-preventive measures, such as direct and indirect vaccine effectiveness, social distancing, and lockdown, but only the vaccine coverage data were available for the regression analysis. RESULTS: COVID-19 mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were 10.26, 16.45, 0.14, and 0.94, for the years 2020, 2021, 2022, and the first half of 2023. In the same order and scale, COVID-19 hospitalization rates were 28.96, 47.04, 0.40, and 3.74. Both hospitalizations and deaths peaked early in 2021, then sharply reduced by the end of the year as the first-dose vaccine coverage reached 90 %, and rose with the vaccine coverage within the last six months falling below 10 % in 2023. PLPE for preventing COVID-19 deaths was 19.9 %, 98.9 %, and 93.1 % for the years 2021, 2022, and the first half of 2023. Had Brazil vaccinated the same number of people against COVID-19 in the last quarter of 2020 as it did in the first quarter of 2021, over 117,000 deaths and 277,000 hospitalizations could have been avoided over the period analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: PLPE reduction in 2023 was likely caused by low vaccine uptake. The disease burden could have been much lower had the vaccination started earlier and had the vaccine uptake not dropped so sharply in 2023.

Food patterns associated with overweight in 7-11-year old children: machine-learning approach.

Longitudinal study, whose objective was to present a better strategy and statistical methods, and demonstrate its use with the data across the 2013-2015 period in schoolchildren aged 7 to 11 years, covered with the same food questionnaire (WebCAAFE) survey in Florianopolis, southern Brazil. Six meals/snacks and 32 foods/beverages yielded 192 possible combinations denominated meal/snack-Specific Food/beverage item (MSFIs). LASSO algorithm (LASSO-logistic regression) was used to determine the MSFIs predictive of overweight/obesity, and then binary (logistic) regression was used to further analyze a subset of these variables. Late breakfast, lunch and dinner were all associated with increased overweight/obesity risk, as was an anticipated lunch. Time-of-day or meal-tagged food/beverage intake result in large number of variables whose predictive patterns regarding weight status can be analyzed by machine learning such as LASSO, which in turn may identify the patterns not amenable to other popular statistical methods such as binary logistic regression.

Trends in the prevalence of obesity, overweight, and thinness among schoolchildren aged 7-14 years from southern Brazil (2002-2019).

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the obesity, overweight, and thinness trends among Brazilian schoolchildren by sex, age group, and type of school according to World Health Organization (WHO) and International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) criteria. METHODS: We conducted four surveys between 2002 and 2018/19 involving schoolchildren aged 7-14 years from a state capital in southern Brazil. Weight status was classified using both WHO and IOTF criteria. RESULTS: In the total sample, obesity prevalence based on the IOTF and the WHO criteria were 72% and 44% higher in 2018/19 compared with 2002, respectively. Over the whole period, the obesity prevalence increased among children (WHO: 10.1% vs. 14.1%; IOTF: 5.0% vs. 8.3%), and those from public schools (WHO: 10.5% vs. 16.4%; IOTF: 5.6% vs. 10.1%). There was no significant reduction in thinness prevalence over the analyzed period. CONCLUSION: Obesity prevalence remains on an upward trend in a state capital in southern Brazil, especially among children from public schools. A higher prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed using the WHO criteria compared with IOTF criteria.

Food patterns associated with overweight in 7-11-year old children: machine-learning approach / Padrões alimentares associados ao excesso de peso em crianças de 7 a 11 anos: abordagem de aprendizado de máquina

Abstract Longitudinal study, whose objective was to present a better strategy and statistical methods, and demonstrate its use with the data across the 2013-2015 period in schoolchildren aged 7 to 11 years, covered with the same food questionnaire (WebCAAFE) survey in Florianopolis, southern Brazil. Six meals/snacks and 32 foods/beverages yielded 192 possible combinations denominated meal/snack-Specific Food/beverage item (MSFIs). LASSO algorithm (LASSO-logistic regression) was used to determine the MSFIs predictive of overweight/obesity, and then binary (logistic) regression was used to further analyze a subset of these variables. Late breakfast, lunch and dinner were all associated with increased overweight/obesity risk, as was an anticipated lunch. Time-of-day or meal-tagged food/beverage intake result in large number of variables whose predictive patterns regarding weight status can be analyzed by machine learning such as LASSO, which in turn may identify the patterns not amenable to other popular statistical methods such as binary logistic regression.

Resumo Estudo longitudinal cujo objetivo foi apresentar melhores estratégia e métodos estatísticos e demonstrar sua utilização com os dados do período 2013-2015 em escolares de 7 a 11 anos, contemplados com o mesmo questionário alimentar (WebCAAFE) em Florianópolis, Sul do Brasil. Seis refeições/lanches e 32 alimentos/bebidas resultaram em 192 combinações possíveis denominadas item refeição/lanche-alimentos/bebidas específicos (MSFIs). O algoritmo LASSO (LASSO-regressão logística) foi usado para determinar os MSFIs preditivos de sobrepeso/obesidade e, em seguida, a regressão binária (logística) foi usada para analisar um subconjunto dessas variáveis. Café da manhã, almoço e jantar tardios foram todos associados ao aumento do risco de sobrepeso/obesidade, assim como um almoço antecipado. O consumo de alimentos/bebidas marcados na hora do dia ou na refeição resulta em um grande número de variáveis ​​cujos padrões preditivos em relação ao status do peso podem ser analisados ​​por LASSO. Essa análise pode identificar os padrões não passíveis de outros métodos estatísticos populares, como a regressão logística binária.

Coagulation biomarkers and coronavirus disease 2019 phenotyping: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Because severe acute respiratory syndrome coronarivus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) leads to severe conditions and thrombus formation, evaluation of the coagulation markers is important in determining the prognosis and phenotyping of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: In a prospective study that included 213 COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) the levels of antithrombin, C-reactive protein (CRP); factors XI, XII, XIII; prothrombin and D-dimer were measured. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to assess the pairwise correlations between the biomarkers. Hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analysis was performed using the levels of biomarkers to identify patients´ phenotypes. Multivariate binary regression was used to determine the association of the patient´s outcome with clinical variables and biomarker levels. RESULTS: The levels of factors XI and XIII were significantly higher in patients with less severe COVID-19, while factor XIII and antithrombin levels were significantly associated with mortality. These coagulation biomarkers were associated with the in-hospital survival of COVID-19 patients over and above the core clinical factors on admission. Hierarchical cluster analysis showed a cluster between factor XIII and antithrombin, and this hierarchical cluster was extended to CRP in the next step. Furthermore, a non-hierarchical K-means cluster analysis was performed, and two phenotypes were identified based on the CRP and antithrombin levels independently of clinical variables and were associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: Coagulation biomarkers were associated with in-hospital survival of COVID-19 patients. Lower levels of factors XI, XII and XIII and prothrombin were associated with disease severity, while higher levels of both CRP and antithrombin clustered with worse prognosis. These results suggest the role of coagulation abnormalities in the development of COVID-19 and open the perspective of identifying subgroups of patients who would benefit more from interventions focused on regulating coagulation.

Glasgow coma scale pupil score (GCS-P) and the hospital mortality in severe traumatic brain injury: analysis of 1,066 Brazilian patients.

BACKGROUND: Pupil reactivity and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score are the most clinically relevant information to predict the survival of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the accuracy of the GCS-Pupil score (GCS-P) as a prognostic index to predict hospital mortality in Brazilian patients with severe TBI and compare it with a model combining GCS and pupil response with additional clinical and radiological prognostic factors. METHODS: Data from 1,066 patients with severe TBI from 5 prospective studies were analyzed. We determined the association between hospital mortality and the combination of GCS, pupil reactivity, age, glucose levels, cranial computed tomography (CT), or the GCS-P score by multivariate binary logistic regression. RESULTS: Eighty-five percent (n = 908) of patients were men. The mean age was 35 years old, and the overall hospital mortality was 32.8%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.73 (0.70-0.77) for the model using the GCS-P score and 0.80 (0.77-0.83) for the model including clinical and radiological variables. The GCS-P score showed similar accuracy in predicting the mortality reported for the patients with severe TBI derived from the International Mission for Prognosis and Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) and the Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) studies. CONCLUSION: Our results support the external validation of the GCS-P to predict hospital mortality following a severe TBI. The predictive value of the GCS-P for long-term mortality, functional, and neuropsychiatric outcomes in Brazilian patients with mild, moderate, and severe TBI deserves further investigation.

ANTECEDENTES: A reatividade pupilar e o escore da Escala de Coma de Glasgow (ECG) representam as informações clínicas mais relevantes para predizer a sobrevivência de pacientes com traumatismo cranioencefálico (TCE). OBJETIVO: Avaliar a acurácia da ECG com resposta pupilar (ECG-P) como índice prognóstico para predizer mortalidade hospitalar em pacientes brasileiros acometidos por TCE grave e compará-lo com um modelo combinando ECG e resposta pupilar com fatores prognósticos radiológicos. MéTODOS: Foram analisados dados de 1.066 pacientes com TCE grave de 5 estudos prospectivos. Foi determinada a associação entre mortalidade hospitalar e a combinação de ECG, reatividade pupilar, idade, níveis glicêmicos, tomografia computadorizada (TC) de crânio ou o escore ECG-P por regressão logística binária multivariada. RESULTADOS: Oitenta e cinco por cento (n = 908) dos pacientes eram homens. A média de idade foi de 35 anos e a mortalidade hospitalar geral foi de 32,8%. A AUROC (em português, Curva Característica de Operação do Receptor) foi de 0,73 (0,70­0,77) para o modelo utilizando o escore ECG-P e de 0,80 (0,77­0,83) para o modelo incluindo variáveis clínicas e radiológicas. O escore ECG-P mostrou acurácia semelhante na previsão da mortalidade relatada para pacientes com TCE grave derivados dos estudos International Mission for Prognosis and Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT, na sigla em inglês) e Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH, na sigla em inglês). CONCLUSãO: Nossos resultados apoiam a validação externa da ECG-P para prever a mortalidade hospitalar após um TCE grave. O valor preditivo da ECG-P para mortalidade a longo prazo, resultados funcionais e neuropsiquiátricos em pacientes brasileiros com TCE leve, moderado e grave precisam ser investigados.

Cognitive Performance of Brazilian Patients With Favorable Outcomes After Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Prospective Study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the cognitive performance of patients with favorable outcomes, determined by the Glasgow Outcome Scale, 1 yr after hospital discharge due to severe traumatic brain injury. DESIGN: This was a prospective case-control study. From 163 consecutive adult patients with severe traumatic brain injury included in the study, 73 patients had a favorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 4 or 5) 1 yr after hospital discharge and were eligible for the cognitive evaluation, of which 28 completed the evaluations. The latter were compared with 44 healthy controls. RESULTS: The average loss of cognitive performance among participants with traumatic brain injury varied between 13.35% and 43.49% compared with the control group. Between 21.4% and 32% of the patients performed below the 10th percentile on three language tests and two verbal memory tests, whereas 39% to 50% performed below this threshold on one language test and three memory tests. Longer hospital stay, older age, and lower education were the most important predictors of worse cognitive performance. CONCLUSION: One year after a severe traumatic brain injury, a significant proportion of Brazilian patients with the favorable outcome determined by Glasgow Outcome Scale still showed significant cognitive impairment in verbal memory and language domains.

Glasgow coma scale pupil score (GCS-P) and the hospital mortality in severe traumatic brain injury: analysis of 1,066 Brazilian patients / Escala de coma de Glasgow com resposta pupilar (ECC-P) e mortalidade hospitalar em traumatismo cranioencefálico grave: análise de 1.066 pacientes brasileiros

Abstract Background Pupil reactivity and the Glasgow Coma Scale (CCS) score are the most clinically relevant information to predict the survival of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients. Objective We evaluated the accuracy of the CCS-Pupil score (CCS-P) as a prognostic index to predict hospital mortality in Brazilian patients with severe TBI and compare it with a model combining CCS and pupil response with additional clinical and radiological prognostic factors. Methods Data from 1,066 patients with severe TBI from 5 prospective studies were analyzed. We determined the association between hospital mortality and the combination of CCS, pupil reactivity, age, glucose levels, cranial computed tomography (CT), or the CCS-P score by multivariate binary logistic regression. Results Eighty-five percent (n = 908) of patients were men. The mean age was 35 years old, and the overall hospital mortality was 32.8%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.73 (0.70-0.77) for the model using the CCS-P score and 0.80 (0.77-0.83) for the model including clinical and radiological variables. The CCS-P score showed similar accuracy in predicting the mortality reported for the patients with severe TBI derived from the International Mission for Prognosis and Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) and the Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) studies. Conclusion Our results support the external validation of the CCS-P to predict hospital mortality following a severe TBI. The predictive value of the CCS-P for long-term mortality, functional, and neuropsychiatric outcomes in Brazilian patients with mild, moderate, and severe TBI deserves further investigation.

Resumo Antecedentes A reatividade pupilar e o escore da Escala de Coma de Glasgow (ECC) representam as informações clínicas mais relevantes para predizer a sobrevivência de pacientes com traumatismo cranioencefálico (TCE). Objetivo Avaliar a acurácia da ECC com resposta pupilar (ECC-P) como índice prognóstico para predizer mortalidade hospitalar em pacientes brasileiros acometidos por TCE grave e compará-lo com um modelo combinando ECC e resposta pupilar com fatores prognósticos radiológicos. Métodos Foram analisados dados de 1.066 pacientes com TCE grave de 5 estudos prospectivos. Foi determinada a associação entre mortalidade hospitalar e a combinação de ECC, reatividade pupilar, idade, níveis glicêmicos, tomografia computadorizada (TC) de crânio ou o escore ECC-P por regressão logística binária multivariada. Resultados Oitenta e cinco por cento (n = 908) dos pacientes eram homens. A média de idade foi de 35 anos e a mortalidade hospitalar geral foi de 32,8%. A AUROC (em português, Curva Característica de Operação do Receptor) foi de 0,73 (0,70-0,77) para o modelo utilizando o escore ECC-P e de 0,80 (0,77-0,83) para o modelo incluindo variáveis clínicas e radiológicas. O escore ECC-P mostrou acurácia semelhante na previsão da mortalidade relatada para pacientes com TCE grave derivados dos estudos International Mission for Prognosis and Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT, na sigla em inglês) e Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH, na sigla em inglês). Conclusão Nossos resultados apoiam a validação externa da ECC-P para prever a mortalidade hospitalar após um TCE grave. O valor preditivo da ECC-P para mortalidade a longo prazo, resultados funcionais e neuropsiquiátricos em pacientes brasileiros com TCE leve, moderado e grave precisam ser investigados.

Methodological aspects and characteristics of participants in the study on the prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents in Florianópolis, Southern Brazil, 2018-2019: EPOCA study.

PURPOSE: To describe the methodological aspects and characteristics of the participants of the EPOCA survey. METHODS: The study was conducted with schoolchildren aged between seven to 14 years old from 30 schools in Florianópolis, Southern Brazil. Body mass, height, girths, and skinfold thicknesses were measured. Food consumption and physical activity from the previous day were self-reported using the validated Web-CAAFE questionnaire. Adolescents completed a specific questionnaire about physical activity, meal consumption, and weight control behaviors. Parents/guardians responded to a sociodemographic and habits questionnaire. RESULTS: A total of 1671 schoolchildren participated in the study (response rate: 27.2%). About 63% of schoolchildren were enrolled in public schools. Most studied in the morning shift (54.2%), were female (53.1%) and aged between seven and 10 years (58.1%). The prevalence of overweight was 33.7% and obesity was 11.3%. CONCLUSIONS: The data obtained will allow us to assess the trend in the prevalence of overweight and obesity and associated factors when compared to other surveys performed. Descriptions of the logistics and protocols can help in the development and improvement of similar studies. It is hoped that the results of EPOCA 2018/2019 may help in the design of obesity prevention policies and programs for this population.

Syphilis and Co-Infections with HIV-1, HBV, and HCV among People Who Use Crack-Cocaine in Northern Brazil.

The rates of syphilis and viral co-infections among people who use crack-cocaine (PWUCC) were assessed in this study. This cross-sectional study relied on biological and self-reported socio-behavioral data from a convenience sample of 990 PWUCC from twenty-six municipalities in the states of Amapá and Pará, northern Brazil. Blood samples were collected to assess the presence of Treponema pallidum using the Rapid Qualitative Test (RQT) and the Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL). Reactive samples by RQT were used to assess the presence of HBV, HCV, and HIV-1 using Enzyme Immunoassay (EIA) and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Logistic regression models were used to determine the association of variables assessed with syphilis. In total, 287 (29.0%) of the PWUCC sample had reactive results for syphilis. HBV (15.7%), HCV (5.9%), and HIV-1 (9.8%) were detected among PWUCC with syphilis. Young age, low monthly income and education level, long duration of crack-cocaine use, condomless sex, multiple sex partners, and exchange of sex for money/drugs were associated with syphilis. The present study provides unique insights on the epidemiological status of syphilis among PWUCC in northern Brazil, with multiple implications for improving urgent interventions for diagnosis, prevention, and treatment.

Most meal and snack patterns are stable over a 3-year period in schoolchildren in southern Brazil.

This study aimed to identify meal and snack patterns in Brazilian schoolchildren and assess their stability over 3 years. This is a repeated cross-sectional study carried out in 2013, 2014 and 2015 with 6353 schoolchildren aged 7-12 years from public schools in Florianópolis, Brazil. Previous-day food consumption data for six pre-defined meals (breakfast, mid-morning snack, lunch, mid-afternoon snack, dinner and evening snack) were collected using the validated Web-CAAFE (Food Consumption and Physical Activity of Schoolchildren) questionnaire. Latent class analysis was performed to derive meal and snack patterns. The stability of patterns was analysed using multinomial logistic regression, and the probability of belonging to a meal pattern was calculated for each year. Three patterns were identified for breakfast and four patterns for a mid-morning snack, lunch, mid-afternoon snack, dinner and evening snack. Most meal and snack patterns were stable over the 3-year evaluation period. In the total sample, for a mid-afternoon snack, there was an increase in the probability of the children belonging to the 'Fruits and porridge' pattern (14.5%, 95% CI 12%-17% in 2015 vs. 9.2%, 95% CI 6.8%-11.7% in 2013) and a reduction in the 'Ultra-processed' pattern (42.5%, 95% CI 39.4%-45.6% in 2015 vs. 51.3%, 95% CI 46.5%-56.1% in 2013). These results appear to be in line with the recommendations of the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines and regional policies to increase the intake of healthy foods and limit that of ultra-processed, high fat, sugar and salt foods.

Spread of Human T-Lymphotropic Virus 1 and 2 Among Relatives of People Who Use Illicit Drugs in Northern Brazil.

The human T-lymphotropic virus 1 (HTLV-1) and 2 (HTLV-2) can be transmitted between humans by mechanisms associated with horizontal and vertical routes. Recently, high prevalence rates and levels of genetic diversity for HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 were detected among people who use illicit drugs (PWUDs) in the Brazilian state of Pará. None of the PWUDs with HTLV-1 or HTLV-2 were aware of their carrier condition of the retrovirus, and they ability to spread it to their family group, sexual partners, and other contacts. Thus, this study evaluated the presence of HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 in families of PWUDs in the state of Pará, in Northern Brazil. This descriptive study used convenience sampling and accessed 37 PWUDs and their respective families (n = 97) in 18 municipalities in the state of Pará, northern Brazil. All participants provided personal data and were tested for the presence of HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and western blotting. HTLV positive samples were selected for Nested-PCR, and viral genotyping by nucleotide sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. HTLV-1 or HTLV-2 infections were detected in 15 families of PWUDs: 27 family members of PWUDs were infected with HTLV-1 (27.8%) and another 20 of them with HTLV-2 (20.6%). Subtypes 1a [subgroup A (54.5%)], 2b (20.5%), and 2c (25.0%) were detected. High horizontal (76.9%) and vertical (61.4%) transmission rates of HTLV were ascertained. Factors that facilitate the acquisition and transmission of HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 were reported by the participants, such as long-term relationships, unprotected sex, breastfeeding, and lack of knowledge about the condition of being a carrier of the retrovirus. Evidence indicates intrafamilial transmission of HTLV from PWUDs to members of their respective families. Key interventions should urgently be employed for the control and prevention of HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 to reduce the spread of this retrovirus in PWUDs and the general population in Northern Brazil and elsewhere.

Time trend estimation of food consumption in repeated studies with different versions of food questionnaire among Brazilian schoolchildren aged 7 to 11 years.

Longitudinal study, whose objective was to evaluate of the time trend in food consumption across the 2002-2015 period in schoolchildren aged 7 to 11 years, covered five food surveys in Florianopolis, southern Brazil. Methodological differences across the surveys (typical vs. previous day food consumption, pen-and-paper versus computer screen presentation) and some known risk factors, were adjusted for statistically. Offset by maximum food/beverage consumption per day allowed comparability of a varying number of food components in a food group over survey years. Significant reduction in some healthy (fruits and animal proteins) and unhealthy diet markers (sodas, sugary drinks, sweets) was observed over the 2013-2015 period compared with the 2002 and 2007 data. Computer screen presentation of the food questionnaire systematically reduced the reporting frequency compared to the pen-and-paper presentation. Converting frequency reports into rates and using contrast analysis allowed time trend estimation based on food questionnaires with different presentation modes, varying number of items within food group over survey years, and variations in probabilistic sampling procedures.

Teste de Progresso: ausência de alunos de Medicina é sugestiva de mau desempenho acadêmico / Progress Test: medical student absenteeism is suggestive of poor academic performance

Resumo: Introdução: Não se sabe se a ausência de estudantes de Medicina ao Teste de Progresso (TP) se dá de forma aleatória ou por alguma característica sistemática deles, o que poderia influenciar a representatividade dos resultados obtidos pelos participantes. Objetivo: Este estudo teve como objetivos comparar os índices de desempenho acadêmico, no curso de Medicina da UFSC, dos alunos presentes e ausentes ao TP em 2019; propor uma maneira de estimar, a partir desses índices, quais seriam as notas dos faltantes se tivessem participado do TP; e identificar fatores associados à ausência ao TP. Método: Foram comparadas as médias dos índices de desempenho acadêmico, globais e nas diferentes fases (semestres) dos grupos de alunos presentes e ausentes ao TP, utilizando teste t de Student para amostras independentes. Por meio de uma técnica de regressão linear, foram imputadas as prováveis notas no TP ao grupo de alunos ausentes. Resultado: As médias globais dos três indicadores acadêmicos foram significativamente menores nos alunos ausentes ao TP (p variando de < 0,03 a < 0,0001); em dez das 11 fases (semestres) analisadas do curso, os indicadores acadêmicos dos faltosos foram piores do que dos presentes. A imputação de notas no TP aos ausentes permitiu verificar que existe correlação (R = 0,62) entre a porcentagem destes e a diferença de notas entre os grupos que realizaram e os que faltaram ao TP. Entre os alunos do gênero masculino, 25,8% não fizeram o TP, enquanto no gênero feminino foram 16,6% (diferença com p < 0,01). Conclusão: A ausência de alunos ao TP não se dá de forma aleatória. Entre os faltosos, há uma tendência sistemática de existirem alunos com piores índices de desempenho acadêmico. O uso de imputação múltipla de dados evidencia uma correlação entre a porcentagem de faltosos e a diferença na média da nota no TP, desse grupo, comparada à média da nota dos participantes. A proporção de homens que faltaram ao TP foi significativamente maior do que a de mulheres.

Abstract: Introduction: It is not known whether the absence of medical students at the Progress Test (PT) is random event or if it due to some systematic characteristic of the students, which could influence the representativeness of the results obtained by the participants. Objectives: 1) to compare the academic performance indexes, in UFSC Medical School, of students who were present and absent from the PT in 2019; 2) to propose a way to estimate, based on these indexes, what the absentee's grades would be if they had participated in the PT; 3) to identify factors associated with absence from the PT. Method: The averages of academic performance indexes, overall and in the different phases (semesters) in the groups of students who were present and absent from the PT, were compared using Student's t test for independent samples. Using a linear regression technique, the probable PT scores were assigned to the group of absent students. Results: The global averages of the three academic indicators were significantly lower in students absent from the PT (p ranging from < 0.03 to < 0.0001); in 10 of the 11 analyzed course phases (semesters), the academic indicators of absentees were worse than those present at the test. The attribution of PT grades to the absentees allowed us to verify that there is a correlation (R=0.62) between the percentage of these students and the difference in grades between the groups that took and those that did not take the PT. Among male students, 25.8% did not attend the PT, while among female students the number of absentees was 16.6% (difference with p <0.01). Conclusions: The absence of students at the PT does not occur randomly. Among the absentees, there is a systematic tendency to have students with worse academic performance. The use of multiple imputation of data demonstrate a correlation between the percentage of absentees and the difference in the average of grades in the PT of this group, compared to the average of the participants' grades. The proportion of male students who missed the PT was significantly higher than that of female students.

Time trend estimation of food consumption in repeated studies with different versions of food questionnaire among Brazilian schoolchildren aged 7 to 11 years / Estimativa da tendência temporal do consumo alimentar em estudos repetidos com diferentes versões do questionário alimentar entre escolares brasileiros de 7 a 11 anos

Abstract Longitudinal study, whose objective was to evaluate of the time trend in food consumption across the 2002-2015 period in schoolchildren aged 7 to 11 years, covered five food surveys in Florianopolis, southern Brazil. Methodological differences across the surveys (typical vs. previous day food consumption, pen-and-paper versus computer screen presentation) and some known risk factors, were adjusted for statistically. Offset by maximum food/beverage consumption per day allowed comparability of a varying number of food components in a food group over survey years. Significant reduction in some healthy (fruits and animal proteins) and unhealthy diet markers (sodas, sugary drinks, sweets) was observed over the 2013-2015 period compared with the 2002 and 2007 data. Computer screen presentation of the food questionnaire systematically reduced the reporting frequency compared to the pen-and-paper presentation. Converting frequency reports into rates and using contrast analysis allowed time trend estimation based on food questionnaires with different presentation modes, varying number of items within food group over survey years, and variations in probabilistic sampling procedures.

Resumo Estudo longitudinal cujo objetivo foi avaliar a tendência temporal do consumo alimentar no período 2002-2015 em escolares de 7 a 11 anos, abrangendo cinco inquéritos alimentares em Florianópolis, Sul do Brasil. Foi ajustado para diferenças metodológicas (consumo alimentar típico vs. dia anterior, caneta e papel vs. apresentação no computador) e alguns fatores de risco. A compensação pelo consumo máximo de alimentos/bebidas por dia permitiu a comparabilidade de um número variável de componentes de alimentos em um grupo de alimentos ao longo dos anos da pesquisa. Foi observada redução em alguns marcadores de dieta saudável (frutas e proteínas animais) e não saudáveis (refrigerantes, bebidas açucaradas, doces) no período de 2013-2015, em comparação com os dados de 2002 e 2007. A apresentação do questionário alimentar na tela do computador reduziu sistematicamente a frequência de relatórios em comparação com a apresentação em papel e caneta. A conversão de relatórios de frequência em taxas e o uso de análise de contraste permitiram a estimativa de tendência de tempo com base em questionários de alimentos com diferentes modos de apresentação, número variável de itens dentro do grupo de alimentos ao longo dos anos da pesquisa e variações nos procedimentos de amostragem probabilística.

Low COVID-19 vaccination coverage and high COVID-19 mortality rates in Brazilian elderly.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relation between COVID-19 vaccine coverage and COVID-19-related mortality by age groups in Brazil in 2021. METHODS: Secondary data on COVID-19 deaths and vaccination coverage were retrieved to investigate COVID-19 mortality rate (MR) evolution as the vaccination against COVID-19 advanced in Brazil in 2021. Poisson regression with adjustment for age and Brazilian states was used to calculate the MR. RESULTS: By mid-April 2021, MR increased 2 - 3 times compared with the already high level in January for people aged 60 years or older, reaching the highest epidemic level of 5 - 15 per 100,000 inhabitants in this age group. Despite the following decline trend, by the end of May, the MR level was still about 50% and 80% higher for the age groups of 40 - 79 years and 80 years or older. The coverage concerning the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine reached 80% for people aged 60 - 69 years and exceeded 95% for those aged 70 years or older, but the second dose was only given to 26, 76 and 64% of the age groups of 60 - 69, 70 - 79, and 80 years or older, respectively. The age-standardized average MR over the study period was the highest in northern Brazilian states of Rondônia, Amazonas, Acre, and Roraima (range 6-8.4 per 100,000 inhabitants). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination coverage was below the level necessary to protect Brazilians from rising MR between January and May 2021. Urgent measures are necessary to increase the vaccine supply and the adherence to non-pharmacological protective measures.

Detection and Genetic Characterization of Hepatitis B and D Viruses: A Multi-Site Cross-Sectional Study of People Who Use Illicit Drugs in the Amazon Region.

Hepatitis B (HBV) and delta (HDV) viruses are endemic in the Amazon region, but vaccine coverage against HBV is still limited. People who use illicit drugs (PWUDs) represent a high-risk group due to common risk behavior and socioeconomic factors that facilitate the acquisition and transmission of pathogens. The present study assessed the presence of HBV and HBV-HDV co-infection, identified viral sub-genotypes, and verified the occurrence of mutations in coding regions for HBsAg and part of the polymerase in HBV-infected PWUDs in municipalities of the Brazilian states of Amapá and Pará, in the Amazon region. In total, 1074 PWUDs provided blood samples and personal data in 30 municipalities of the Brazilian Amazon. HBV and HDV were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and polymerase chain reaction. Viral genotypes were identified by nucleotide sequencing followed by phylogenetic analysis, whereas viral mutations were analyzed by specialized software. High rates of serological (32.2%) and molecular (7.2%) markers for HBV were detected, including cases of occult HBV infection (2.5%). Sub-genotypes A1, A2, D4, and F2a were most frequently found. Escape mutations due to vaccine and antiviral resistance were identified. Among PWUDs with HBV DNA, serological (19.5%) and molecular (11.7%) HDV markers were detected, such as HDV genotypes 1 and 3. These are worrying findings, presenting clear implications for urgent prevention and treatment needs for the carriers of these viruses.

Low anti-COVID-19 vaccination coverage and high COVID-19 mortality rates in Brazilian elderly / Baixa cobertura da vacina contra COVID-19 e altas taxas de mortalidade por COVID-19 em idosos no Brazil

Introduction: In 2021, Brazil started a nationwide vaccination against COVID-19 but the emergence of the P.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2, more transmissible and resistant to immunity from the previous infection, rapidly led to a record increase in COVID-19 mortality. Methods: Secondary data on COVID-19 deaths and vaccination coverage were retrieved to examine COVID-19 mortality rate (MR) evolution as anti-COVID-19 vaccination advanced in Brazil in 2021. Poisson regression with adjustment for age and federal states was used to calculate the MR. Results; By mid-April 2021, MR increased 2-3 times compared to the already high level in January for the people of 60 years or older, reaching the highest epidemic level of 5-15 per 100.000 in this age group. Despite a declining time trend followed, by the end of May, the MR level was still about 50% and 80% higher for the 40-79 and 80 years or older. The first dose of anti-COVID-19 coverage reached 80% for the 60-69 years old and exceeded 95% for those of 70 years or older, but the second dose was applied to only 26%, 76%, and 64% of the 60-69, 70-79, and 80 years or older, respectively. The average age-standardized MR over the study time was the highest in northern Brazilian states of Rondônia, Amazonas, Acre, and Roraima (range 6-8.4 per 100.000). Conclusion: Anti-COVID-19 vaccination coverage was below the level necessary to protect Brazilians from rising MR between January and May 2021. Urgent measures are needed to increase the vaccine supply and the adherence to non-pharmacological protective measures.

Introdução: Brasil começou vacinar contra COVID-19 em 2021, mas o surgimento da variante P.1 do SARS-Cov-2, mais transmissível e resistente, rapidamente levou a aumento recorde em mortalidade por COVID-19. Métodos ­ Foram levantados dados secundários sobre mortes e cobertura vacinal relacionadas a COVID-19, para examinar a evolução da taxa de mortalidade (TM) com avanço da vacinação. Utilizou-se a regressão de Poisson com ajuste para idade e as unidades federadas. Resultados ­ Em abril, a TM aumentou 2-3 vezes comparado com começo do ano 2021 em pessoas com 60 ou mais anos de idade (60+), atingindo o nível recorde de 5-15 por 100.000. Apesar do subsequente declínio, no final de maio a taxa ainda estava aproximadamente 50% e 80% mais alta que no começo do ano para faixas etárias de 40-79 e 80+ anos, respectivamente. As pessoas com 70+ anos ultrapassaram a cobertura vacinal de 95%, enquanto aqueles de 60-69 anos chegaram à 80% da cobertura com a primeira dose da vacina. Porém, a segunda dose foi aplicada a somente 26%, 76%, e 64% das pessoas com 60-69, 70-79, e 80+ anos, respectivamente. As mais altas taxas de 6 a 8.4 per 100.000, ajustadas por faixa etária, foram registradas em Rondônia, Amazonas, Acre, e Roraima. Conclusão ­ Cobertura vacinal contra COVID-19 não atingiu os níveis necessários para proteger os Brasileiros contra crescente mortalidade por esta doença entre janeiro e maio de 2021. É preciso tomar medidas urgentes para aumentar o suprimento das vacinas e aderência às medidas preventivas não farmacológicas.

Hepatitis E Virus in People Who Use Crack-Cocaine: A Cross-Sectional Study in a Remote Region of Northern Brazil.

People who use crack-cocaine (PWUCC) have numerous vulnerabilities and pose a challenge to health and social assistance services. The exposure to pathogens and risk situations occur differently according to each individual, region and social group. This study identified the presence, genotypes and factors associated with hepatitis E virus (HEV) exposure among a community-recruited cohort of 437 PWUCC in northern Brazil. Epidemiological information was collected through community-based assessments and interviews. Thereafter, blood and fecal samples were collected and tested for HEV using an immunoenzymatic assay, and the genotype was identified by PCR. Logistic regressions were used to identify the risk factors independently associated with exposure to HEV. In total, 79 (18.1%) PWUCC were exposed to HEV: 73 (16.7%) for IgG and six for IgG + IgM. HEV RNA was detected in six fecal samples and in two blood samples from PWUCC with IgM + IgG. Subtype 3c was identified in all of the samples. The factors associated with exposure to HEV were low monthly income, unstable housing (e.g., homelessness), crack-cocaine use ≥40 months, and the shared use of crack-cocaine equipment. The current study provides unique initial insights into HEV status and risk factors among PWUCC in a remote area in Brazil, with diverse implications for urgently improved diagnosis, prevention, and treatment intervention needs.

How many more? Under-reporting of the COVID-19 deaths in Brazil in 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the magnitude of under-reporting the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020, previously shown to occur due to low rate of laboratory testing for SARS-CoV-2, reporting delay, inadequate access to medical care, and its poor quality, leading to the low sensitivity of epidemiological surveillance and poor outcomes, often without laboratory confirmation of the cause of death. METHODS: Excess mortality due to COVID-19 was estimated directly based on various data sources, and indirectly, based on the difference between the observed and expected number of deaths from serious acute respiratory infection (SARI) and all-natural causes in 2020 had there been no COVID-19. The absence of laboratory testing for SARS-CoV-2 was adjusted based on the proportion of those who tested positive among the tested individuals whose death was attributed to COVID-19. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) were used to improve prediction of likely mortality without COVID-19 in 2020. RESULTS: Under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths was 22.62%, with a corresponding mortality rate per 100 000 inhabitants of 115 by the direct method, 71-76 by the indirect methods based on the excess SARI mortality and 95-104 by excess mortality due to natural causes. COVID-19 was the third cause of mortality that contributed directly with 18%, and indirectly with additional 10-11% to all deaths in Brazil in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Underestimation of COVID-19 mortality between 1:5 and 1:4 is likely its lower bound. Timely and accurate surveillance of death causes is of the essence to evaluate the COVID-19 burden.