Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation.

Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions are obtained using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic spatial predictor variables, with a strong association with domestic duck and extensively raised chicken densities. Our results also support a more systematic use of spatial cross-validation in large-scale disease suitability modelling compared to standard random cross-validation that can lead to unreliable measure of extrapolation accuracy. A global suitability model of the H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, a group of viruses that recently spread extensively in Asia and the US, shows in comparison a lower spatial extrapolation capacity than the HPAI H5N1 models, with a stronger association with intensively raised chicken densities and anthropogenic factors.

Clade-level Spatial Modelling of HPAI H5N1 Dynamics in the Mekong Region Reveals New Patterns and Associations with Agro-Ecological Factors.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has been circulating in Asia since 2003 and diversified into several genetic lineages, or clades. Although the spatial distribution of its outbreaks was extensively studied, differences in clades were never previously taken into account. We developed models to quantify associations over time and space between different HPAI H5N1 viruses from clade 1, 2.3.4 and 2.3.2 and agro-ecological factors. We found that the distribution of clades in the Mekong region from 2004 to 2013 was strongly regionalised, defining specific epidemiological zones, or epizones. Clade 1 became entrenched in the Mekong Delta and was not supplanted by newer clades, in association with a relatively higher presence of domestic ducks. In contrast, two new clades were introduced (2.3.4 and 2.3.2) in northern Viet Nam and were associated with higher chicken density and more intensive chicken production systems. We suggest that differences in poultry production systems in these different epizones may explain these associations, along with differences in introduction pressure from neighbouring countries. The different distribution patterns found at the clade level would not be otherwise apparent through analysis treating all outbreaks equally, which requires improved linking of disease outbreak records and genetic sequence data.

MyHits: improvements to an interactive resource for analyzing protein sequences.

The MyHits web site (http://myhits.isb-sib.ch) is an integrated service dedicated to the analysis of protein sequences. Since its first description in 2004, both the user interface and the back end of the server were improved. A number of tools (e.g. MAFFT, Jacop, Dotlet, Jalview, ESTScan) were added or updated to improve the usability of the service. The MySQL schema and its associated API were revamped and the database engine (HitKeeper) was separated from the web interface. This paper summarizes the current status of the server, with an emphasis on the new services.

Stochastic resonance for motion of flexible macromolecules in solution.

We consider a dilute or semidilute polymer solution with localized attracting centers near a flat phase boundary and assume it driven by both stochastic and periodic forces. The attracting inhomogeneities restrict the free motion of macromolecules and play the role of fixed pinning centers. The flat boundary is modeled by a bistable potential whose minima attract the movable polymer segments between neighboring pinning points. We study the motion of these segments. The stochastic forces lead to stochastic oscillations of the polymer parts between the two potential wells near the phase boundary. Application of a small temporal periodic force can synchronize these oscillations and leads to the phenomenon of stochastic resonance for a nonvanishing noise intensity. As an outcome of our theory in agreement with numerical simulations, the resonance is stronger for wider and/or less deep potentials and observed at smaller values of the noise intensity. Additionally, we discuss under what conditions doubly stochastic resonance of the macromolecular motion occurs, that is, if bistability of the potential near the boundary originates in the action of multiplicative noise.