Joint effect of ischemic stroke and obesity on the risk of venous thromboembolism: the Tromsø Study.

Background: Patients with ischemic stroke have increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Obesity is prevalent in stroke patients and a well-established risk factor for VTE. Whether obesity further increases the VTE risk in patients with stroke remains unclear. Objectives: We investigated the joint effect of ischemic stroke and obesity on the risk of incident VTE in a population-based cohort. Methods: Participants (n = 29,920) were recruited from the fourth to sixth surveys of the Tromsø Study (1994-1995, 2001, and 2007-2008) and followed through 2014. Incident events of ischemic stroke and VTE during follow-up were recorded. Hazard ratios (HRs) of VTE with 95% CIs were estimated according to combined categories of ischemic stroke and obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2), with exposure to neither risk factors as reference. Results: During a median follow-up of 19.6 years, 1388 participants experienced ischemic stroke and 807 participants developed VTE. Among those with stroke, 51 developed VTE, yielding an incidence rate of VTE after stroke of 7.2 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 5.5-9.5). In subjects without stroke, obesity was associated with a 1.8-fold higher VTE risk (HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.47-2.11). In nonobese subjects, stroke was associated with a 1.8-fold higher VTE risk (HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.27-2.46). Obese subjects with stroke had a 2-fold increased VTE risk (HR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.37-4.36). Conclusion: The combination of obesity and ischemic stroke did not yield an excess risk of VTE. Our findings suggest that obese subjects with ischemic stroke do not have a more than additive risk of VTE.

No decline in drug overdose deaths in Norway: An ecological approach to understanding at-risk groups and the impact of interventions.

Aim: This Norwegian case study examines groups at risk of drug overdose deaths, evidence-based harm reduction interventions, low-threshold services and treatment implemented, as well as trends in drug overdose deaths between 2010 and 2021. We aimed to explore the relevance of interventions for at-risk groups and discuss their potential impact on drug overdose trends. Method/data: Using an ecological approach, we analysed the following: (1) groups identified through latent profile analysis (LPA) among a sample of 413 high-risk drug users collected in 2010-2012, supplemented with other relevant studies up to 2021; (2) published information on harm-reduction interventions, low-threshold services and treatment in Norway; and (3) nationwide drug overdose mortality figures supplemented with published articles on the topic. Results: High-risk drug users in 2010-2012 commonly engaged in frequent illegal drug use, injecting and poly-drug use (including pharmaceutical opioids), which continued into following decade. The interventions implemented between 2010 and 2021 were relevant for at-risk groups identified in the surveys. However, there was no decrease in the trend of drug overdose deaths up to 2021. While relevant interventions may have mitigated a theoretical increase in mortality, new at-risk groups may have contributed to fatal outcomes associated with pharmaceutical opioids. Conclusion: The interventions were relevant to the risk groups identified among high-risk drug users and potentially effective in preventing an increase in drug overdose trends. However, tailored interventions are needed for individuals at risk of death from prescribed opioids. Comprehensive studies encompassing all at-risk populations, including both legal and non-medical users of prescription opioids, are needed.

Females Display Lower Risk of Myocardial Infarction From Higher Estimated Cardiorespiratory Fitness Than Males: The Tromsø Study 1994-2014.

Objective: To examine the dose-response association between estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (eCRF) and risk of myocardial infarction (MI). Patients and Methods: Adults who attended Tromsø Study surveys 4-6 (Janurary 1,1994-December 20, 2008) with no previous cardiovascular disease were followed up through December 31, 2014 for incident MI. Associations were examined using restricted cubic splines Fine and Gray regressions, adjusted for education, smoking, alcohol, diet, sex, adiposity, physical activity, study survey, and age (timescale) in the total cohort and subsamples with hyperlipidemia (n=2956), hypertension (n=8290), obesity (n=5784), metabolic syndrome (n=1410), smokers (n=3823), and poor diet (n=3463) and in those who were physically inactive (n=6255). Results: Of 14,285 participants (mean age ± SD, 53.7±11.4 years), 979 (6.9%) experienced MI during follow-up (median, 7.2 years; 25th-75th, 5.3-14.6 years). Females with median eCRF (32 mL/kg/min) had 43% lower MI risk (subdistributed hazard ratio [SHR], 0.57; 95% CI, 0.48-0.68) than those at the 10th percentile (25 mL/kg/min) as reference. The lowest MI risk was observed at 47 mL/kg/min (SHR, 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.11). Males had 26% lower MI risk at median eCRF (40 mL/kg/min; SHR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.63-0.86) than those at the 10th percentile (32 mL/kg/min), and the lowest risk was 69% (SHR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.14-0.71) at 60 mL/kg/min. The associations were similar in subsamples with cardiovascular disease risk factors. Conclusion: Higher eCRF associated with lower MI risk in females and males, but associations were more pronounced among females than those in males. This suggest eCRF as a vital estimate to implement in medical care to identify individuals at high risk of future MI, especially for females.

Occupational physical activity and risk of mortality in women and men: the Tromsø Study 1986-2021.

OBJECTIVE: Associations between occupational physical activity (OPA) and mortality risks are inconclusive. We aimed to examine associations between (1) OPA separately and (2) jointly with leisure time physical activity (LTPA), and risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality, over four decades with updated exposure and covariates every 6-8 years. METHODS: Adults aged 20-65 years from the Tromsø Study surveys Tromsø3-Tromsø7 (1986-2016) were included. We categorised OPA as low (sedentary), moderate (walking work), high (walking+lifting work) or very high (heavy manual labour) and LTPA as inactive, moderate and vigorous. We used Cox/Fine and Gray regressions to examine associations, adjusted for age, body mass index, smoking, education, diet, alcohol and LTPA (aim 1 only). RESULTS: Of 29 605 participants with 44 140 total observations, 4131 (14.0%) died, 1057 (25.6%) from CVD and 1660 (40.4%) from cancer, during follow-up (median: 29.1 years, 25th-75th: 16.5.1-35.3). In men, compared with low OPA, high OPA was associated with lower all-cause (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.92) and CVD (subdistributed HR (SHR) 0.68, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.84) but not cancer mortality (SHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.19), while no association was observed for moderate or very high OPA. In joint analyses using inactive LTPA and low OPA as reference, vigorous LTPA was associated with lower all-cause mortality combined with low (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.89), high (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.82) and very high OPA (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.94), but not with moderate OPA. In women, there were no associations between OPA, or combined OPA and LTPA, with mortality. CONCLUSION: High OPA, but not moderate and very high OPA, was associated with lower all-cause and CVD mortality risk in men but not in women. Vigorous LTPA was associated with lower mortality risk in men with low, high and very high OPA, but not moderate OPA.

Post-traumatic stress disorder among heart disease patients: a clinical follow-up of individuals with myocardial infarction in the Tromsø Study.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial infarction is likely to be experienced as a life-threatening and potentially traumatic event. Approximately one-third of patients with myocardial infarction experience clinically significant symptoms of anxiety/depression. However, it is unclear how many of these patients experience these symptoms because of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We conducted a clinical screening of individuals with a confirmed myocardial infarction diagnosis. Our goal was to examine the prevalence of PTSD in myocardial infarction patients and study how PTSD symptoms were associated with exposure to potentially traumatic events. METHOD: This is epidemiological research with a cross-sectional design following up participants from the Tromsø Study with a confirmed diagnosis of myocardial infarction. We sent invitations to participants in the Tromsø Study with clinically significant self-reported anxiety or depression symptoms following myocardial infarction. A cross-sectional sample of N = 79 participants (61 men and 18 women) was collected. During an interview, participants completed the Stressful Life Events Screening Questionnaire and the PTSD checklist PCL-5. RESULTS: We found nine participants (11.6%) with probable PTSD. This was significantly higher than the postulated population prevalence in Norway (p < 0.015). We found no direct association between myocardial infarction as illness trauma and symptom levels (p = 0.123). However, we found a significant linear trend (p = 0.002), indicating that symptom severity increased proportionately as the number of post-traumatic events increased. CONCLUSION: PTSD prevalence in myocardial infarction patients was related to lifetime exposure to traumatic events, not the myocardial infarction event alone. More research is required to examine the interaction between myocardial infarction and PTSD. Clinicians should be aware that anxiety or depression symptoms after MI could be secondary symptoms of PTSD.

Lifestyle factors as mediators of area-level socioeconomic differentials in mental health and cognitive function: the Tromsø Study.

INTRODUCTION: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with poor mental health and cognitive function. Individual-level SES and area-level SES (ASES) may affect mental health and cognitive function through lifestyle. We aimed to quantify the associations of ASES with mental health and cognitive function and examine the mediating role of lifestyle behaviours independent of individual-level SES in a Norwegian population. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we included 7211 participants (54% women) from the seventh survey of the Tromsø Study (2015-2016) (Tromsø7). The exposure variable ASES was created by aggregating individual-level SES variables (education, income, housing ownership) from Statistics Norway at the geographical subdivision level. Tromsø7 data were used as mediators (smoking, snuff, alcohol, physical activity, diet) and outcomes (cognitive function, anxiety, depression, insomnia). Mediation and mediated moderation analysis were performed with age as a moderator, stratified by sex. RESULTS: Higher ASES was associated with better cognitive function and fewer depression and insomnia symptoms, independent of individual-level SES. These associations were mediated by smoking and physical activity. Alcohol was a mediator for depression and cognitive function in women. Age was a significant moderator of the association between ASES and global cognitive function in women. The largest total indirect effect of ASES was found for depression, with the joint effect of the mediators accounting for 36% of the total effect. CONCLUSIONS: People living in areas with lower ASES are at higher risk of poor mental health, such as depression and insomnia, and have lower cognitive function possibly due to unhealthy lifestyle (smoking, alcohol and physical inactivity).

Lipid Levels During Adult Lifetime in Men and Women With and Without a Subsequent Incident Myocardial Infarction: A Longitudinal Analysis of Data From the Tromsø Study 1974 to 2016.

Background The atherosclerotic effect of an adverse lipid profile is assumed to accumulate throughout life, leading to increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI). Still, little is known about age at onset and duration of unfavorable lipid levels before MI. Methods and Results Longitudinal data on serum lipid levels for 26 130 individuals (50.5% women, aged 20-89 years) were obtained from 7 population-based health surveys in Tromsø, Norway. Diagnoses of MI were obtained from national registers. A linear mixed model was applied to compare age- and sex-specific mean values of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride concentration by MI status (MI versus non-MI). Already from young adulthood, 20 to 35 years before the incident MI, individuals with a subsequent incident MI had on average more adverse lipid levels than individuals of the same age and sex without MI. Analogous to a dose-response relationship, there was a clear trend toward more severe adverse lipid levels the lower the age at incident MI (P<0.001, test for trend through ordered categories <55, 55-74, ≥75 years). This trend was particularly pronounced for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in percentage of total cholesterol (both sexes) and for the relative relationship between triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and total cholesterol level (women). The difference in mean lipid level by MI status was just as large in women as in men, but the age pattern differed (P≤0.05, tests of 3-way interaction). Conclusions Compared with general population mean levels, adverse lipid levels were seen 20 to 35 years before the incident MI in both men and women.

Lifestyle interventions to change trajectories of obesity-related cardiovascular risk from childhood onset to manifestation in adulthood: a joint scientific statement of the task force for childhood health of the European Association of Preventive Cardiology and the European Childhood Obesity Group.

There is an immediate need to optimize cardiovascular (CV) risk management and primary prevention of childhood obesity to timely and more effectively combat the health hazard and socioeconomic burden of CV disease from childhood development to adulthood manifestation. Optimizing screening programs and risk management strategies for obesity-related CV risk in childhood has high potential to change disease trajectories into adulthood. Building on a holistic view on the aetiology of childhood obesity, this document reviews current concepts in primary prevention and risk management strategies by lifestyle interventions. As an additional objective, this scientific statement addresses the high potential for reversibility of CV risk in childhood and comments on the use of modern surrogate markers beyond monitoring weight and body composition. This scientific statement also highlights the clinical importance of quantifying CV risk trajectories and discusses the remaining research gaps and challenges to better promote childhood health in a population-based approach. Finally, this document provides an overview on the lessons to be learned from the presented evidence and identifies key barriers to be targeted by researchers, clinicians, and policymakers to put into practice more effective primary prevention strategies for childhood obesity early in life to combat the burden of CV disease later in life.

Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study.

AIMS: To use the parametric g-formula to estimate the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) by sex and education under hypothetical interventions on six modifiable risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: We estimated the risk reduction under hypothetical risk reduction strategies for smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, body mass index, systolic, and diastolic blood pressure in 14 923 women and men (baseline mean age 45.8 years in women and 47.8 years in men) from the population-based Tromsø Study with a maximum of 22 years of follow-up (1994-2016). The estimated risk of AF under no intervention was 6.15% in women and 13.0% in men. This cumulative risk was reduced by 41% (95% confidence interval 17%, 61%) in women and 14% (-7%, 30%) in men under joint interventions on all risk factors. The most effective intervention was lowering body mass index to ≤ 25 kg/m2, leading to a 16% (4%, 25%) lower risk in women and a 14% (6%, 23%) lower risk in men. We found significant sex-differences in the relative risk reduction by sufficient physical activity, leading to a 7% (-4%, 18%) lower risk in women and an 8% (-2%, -13%) increased risk in men. We found no association between the level of education and differences in risk reduction by any of the interventions. CONCLUSION: The population burden of AF could be reduced by modifying lifestyle risk factors. Namely, these modifications could have prevented 41% of AF cases in women and 14% of AF cases in men in the municipality of Tromsø, Norway during a maximum 22-year follow-up period.

The heart normally has a regular rhythm. However, in an increasing number of adults worldwide, the rhythm is irregular, which is known as arrhythmia. Atrial fibrillation, or AF, is the most common type of arrhythmia. We know that the risk of AF may be related to lifestyle. In this project, we investigated how much the risk of AF in the population could have been reduced by improvements in smoking habits, physical activity level, alcohol intake, body mass index (BMI), and blood pressure. We found that the risk could have been reduced by 41% in women and 14% in men if everyone quit smoking, was sufficiently physically active, limited their alcohol intake to two units per week, lowered their BMI to 25 kg/m2, and lowered their blood pressure to 130/80 mm Hg. Reducing BMI was the most effective intervention to prevent AF.

Risk of Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 3 or Worse (CIN3+) among Women Examined by a 5-Type HPV mRNA Test during 2003 and 2004, Followed through 2015.

BACKGROUND: The study's purpose was to evaluate the performance of a five-type HPV mRNA test to predict cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) during up to 12 years of follow-up. METHODS: Overall, 19,153 women were recruited by gynecologists and general practitioners in different parts of Norway between 2003 and 2004. The study population comprised 9582 women of these women, aged 25-69 years with normal cytology and a valid five-type HPV mRNA test at baseline. Follow-up for CIN3+ through 2015 was conducted in the Norwegian Cervical Cancer Screening Programme. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of CIN3+ by baseline status for HPV mRNA-positive and mRNA-negative women were 20.8% and 1.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Age did not affect the long-term ability of the HPV mRNA test to predict CIN3+ during follow-up. CONCLUSION: The low long-term risk of CIN3+ among HPV mRNA-negative women and the high long-term risk among HPV mRNA-positive women strengthen the evidence that the five-type HPV mRNA test is an appropriate screening test for women of all ages. Our findings suggest that women with a negative result may extend the screening interval up to 10 years.

Ten-year mortality among older male recreational endurance athletes in the Birkebeiner Aging Study in comparison with older men from the Tromsø Study.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity (PA) is associated with reduced mortality. However, whether there is an added benefit of long-term endurance training is unclear. Thus, we aimed to examine 10-year mortality in older male endurance athletes compared with an older male general population. METHOD: Male athletes (n = 503) participating in an annual long-distance ski race (median years of participation: 14, range: 1-53) from the Norwegian Birkebeiner Aging study (BiAS), and non-athletic men (n = 1867) attending the sixth Tromsø Study (Tromsø6) aged ≥65 years were included. Associations with endurance sport practice and joint exposures of endurance sport practice and self-reported leisure-time PA with all-cause mortality were examined. We analyzed the data with Cox proportional hazard models and regression standardization. RESULTS: After 10 years (median: 10.4, range: 0.5-11.1) the mortality rate was lower in athletes (hazard ratio (HR) 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.24-0.49) compared with non-athletes, corresponding to a 15% (95% CI: 12-19%) absolute risk reduction associated with endurance sport practice. In joint analyses categorized according to PA and endurance sport practice, we observed an inverse dose-response relationship with mortality (p < 0.001). Compared to inactive non-athletes, PA was associated with lower mortality in both active non-athletes and athletes. However, the observed benefit among participants reporting moderate-to-vigorous PA was larger in athletes (HR: 0.21, 95% CI: 0.14-0.32) than non-athletes (HR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.31-0.59) (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Endurance sport practice was associated with reduced 10-year mortality, beyond the effect of PA in older men. This study suggests that long-term endurance sport practice maintained into older adulthood promotes longevity.

13-Type HPV DNA Test versus 5-Type HPV mRNA Test in Triage of Women Aged 25-33 Years with Minor Cytological Abnormalities-6 Years of Follow-Up.

BACKGROUND: A specific, cost-effective triage test for minor cytological abnormalities is essential for cervical cancer screening among younger women to reduce overmanagement and unnecessary healthcare utilization. We compared the triage performance of one 13-type human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA test and one 5-type HPV mRNA test. METHODS: We included 4115 women aged 25-33 years with a screening result of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) recorded in the Norwegian Cancer Registry during 2005-2010. According to Norwegian guidelines, these women went to triage (HPV testing and repeat cytology: 2556 were tested with the Hybrid Capture 2 HPV DNA test, which detects the HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, and 68; and 1559 were tested with the PreTect HPV-Proofer HPV mRNA test, which detects HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, and 45). Women were followed through December 2013. RESULTS: HPV positivity rates at triage were 52.8% and 23.3% among DNA- and mRNA-tested women (p < 0.001), respectively. Referral rates for colposcopy and biopsy and repeat testing (HPV + cytology) after triage were significantly higher among DNA-tested (24.9% and 27.9%) compared to mRNA-tested women (18.3% and 5.1%), as were cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) detection rates (13.1% vs. 8.3%; p < 0.001). Ten cancer cases were diagnosed during follow-up; eight were in DNA-tested women. CONCLUSION: We observed significantly higher referral rates and CIN3+ detection rates in young women with ASC-US/LSIL when the HPV DNA test was used at triage. The mRNA test was as functional in cancer prevention, with considerably less healthcare utilization.

Exploring the incremental utility of circulating biomarkers for robust risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in European cohorts using regressions and modern machine learning methods.

AIMS: To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82-2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10-1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index. CONCLUSION: Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively.

Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation and its complications in the community using hs troponin I.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is becoming increasingly common. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) do not explain all AF cases. Blood-based biomarkers reflecting cardiac injury such as high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) may help close this gap. METHODS: We investigated the predictive ability of hsTnI for incident AF in 45,298 participants (median age 51.4 years, 45.0% men) across European community cohorts in comparison to CVRF and established biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 1734 (3.8%) participants developed AF. Those in the highest hsTnI quarter (≥4.2 ng/L) had a 3.91-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.30, 4.63; p < .01) risk for developing AF compared to the lowest quarter (<1.4 ng/L). In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models a statistically significant association was seen between hsTnI and AF (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in log10(hsTnI) 1.08; 95% CI 1.01, 1.16; p = .03). Inclusion of hsTnI did improve model discrimination (C-index CVRF 0.811 vs. C-index CVRF and hsTnI 0.813; p < .01). Higher hsTnI concentrations were associated with heart failure (HR per SD 1.37; 95% CI 1.12, 1.68; p < .01) and overall mortality (HR per SD 1.24; 95% CI 1.09, 1.41; p < .01). CONCLUSION: hsTnI as a biomarker of myocardial injury does not improve prediction of AF incidence beyond classical CVRF and NT-proBNP. However, it is associated with the AF-related disease heart failure and mortality likely reflecting underlying subclinical cardiovascular impairment.

Sex-specific time trends in incident atrial fibrillation and the contribution of risk factors: the Tromsø Study 1994-2016.

AIMS: To explore sex-specific time trends in atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence and to estimate the impact of changes in risk factor levels using individual participant-level data from the population-based Tromsø Study 1994-2016. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 14 818 women and 13 225 men aged 25 years or older without AF were enrolled in the Tromsø Study between 1994 and 2008 and followed up for incident AF throughout 2016. Poisson regression was used for statistical analyses. During follow-up, age-adjusted AF incidence rates in women decreased from 1.19 to 0.71 per 1000 person-years. In men, AF incidence increased from 1.18 to 2.82 per 1000 person-years in 2004, and then declined to 1.94 per 1000 person-years in 2016. Changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), body mass index (BMI), physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption together accounted for 10.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): -2.4 to 28.6] of the AF incidence decline in women and for 44.7% (95% CI: 19.2; 100.0) of the AF incidence increase in men. Reduction in SBP and DBP had the largest contribution to the decrease in AF incidence in women. Increase in BMI had the largest contribution to the increase in AF incidence in men. CONCLUSION: In the population-based Tromsø Study 1994-2016, AF incidence decreased in women and increased following a reverse U-shape in men. Individual changes in SBP and DBP in women and individual changes in BMI in men were the most important risk factors contributing to the AF incidence trends.