Collaborative Care Cost-Sharing and Referral Rates in Colorado.

BACKGROUND: Collaborative care integrates mental health treatment into primary care and has been shown effective. Yet even in states where its use has been encouraged, take-up remains low and there are potential financial barriers to care. OBJECTIVE: Describe patient out-of-pocket costs and variations in referral patterns for collaborative care in Colorado. RESEARCH DESIGN: Retrospective observational study using administrative medical claims data to identify outpatient visits with collaborative care. For individuals with ≥1 visit, we measure spending and visits at the month level. Among physicians with billings for collaborative care, we measure prevalence of eligible patients with collaborative care utilization. SUBJECTS: Patients with Medicare, Medicare Advantage, or commercial health insurance in Colorado, 2018-2019. OUTCOMES: Out-of-pocket costs (enrollee payments to clinicians), total spending (insurer+enrollee payments to clinicians), percent of patients billed collaborative care. RESULTS: Median total spending (insurer+patient cost) was $48.32 (IQR: $41-$53). Median out-of-pocket cost per month in collaborative care was $8.35 per visit (IQR: $0-$10). Patients with commercial insurance paid the most per month (median: $15); patients with Medicare Advantage paid the least (median: $0). Among clinicians billing for collaborative care (n=193), a mean of 12 percent of eligible patients utilized collaborative care; family practice and advanced practice clinicians' patients utilized it most often. CONCLUSIONS: Collaborative care remains underused with fewer than 1 in 6 potentially eligible patients receiving care in this setting. Out-of-pocket costs varied, though were generally low; uncertainty about costs may contribute to low uptake.

Patient Perspectives on Portal-Based Anxiety and Depression Screening in HIV Care: A Qualitative Study Using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research.

Electronic patient portals represent a promising means of integrating mental health assessments into HIV care where anxiety and depression are highly prevalent. Patient attitudes toward portal-based mental health screening within HIV clinics have not been well described. The aim of this formative qualitative study is to characterize the patient-perceived facilitators and barriers to portal-based anxiety and depression screening within HIV care in order to inform implementation strategies for mental health screening. Twelve adult HIV clinic patients participated in semi-structured interviews that were audio recorded and transcribed. The transcripts were coded using constructs from the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research and analyzed thematically to identify the barriers to and facilitators of portal-based anxiety and depression screening. Facilitators included an absence of alternative screening methods, an approachable design, perceived adaptability, high compatibility with HIV care, the potential for linkage to treatment, an increased self-awareness of mental health conditions, the ability to bundle screening with clinic visits, and communicating an action plan for results. The barriers included difficulty navigating the patient portal system, a lack of technical support, stigmatization from the healthcare system, care team response times, and the novelty of using patient portals for communication. The patients in the HIV clinic viewed the use of a portal-based anxiety and depression screening tool as highly compatible with routine HIV care. Technical difficulties, follow-up concerns, and a fear of stigmatization were commonly perceived as barriers to portal use. The results of this study can be used to inform implementation strategies when designing or incorporating portal-based mental health screening into other HIV care settings.

Type 2 Diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a prevalent disease that increases risk for vascular, renal, and neurologic complications. Prevention and treatment of T2D and its complications are paramount. Many advancements in T2D care have emerged over the past 5 years, including increased understanding of the importance of early intensive glycemic control, mental health, social determinants of health, healthy eating patterns, continuous glucose monitoring, and the benefits of some drugs for preventing cardiorenal disease. This review summarizes the evidence supporting T2D prevention and treatment, focusing on aspects that are commonly in the purview of primary care physicians.

TSH Trajectories During Levothyroxine Treatment in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) Cohort.

CONTEXT: Thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) trajectory classification represents a novel approach to defining the adequacy of levothyroxine (LT4) treatment for hypothyroidism over time. OBJECTIVE: This is a proof of principle study that uses longitudinal clinical data, including thyroid hormone levels from a large prospective study to define classes of TSH trajectories and examine changes in cardiovascular (CV) health markers over the study period. METHODS: Growth mixture modeling (GMM), including latent class growth analysis (LCGA), was used to classify LT4-treated individuals participating in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) based on serial TSH levels. Repeated measure analyses were then utilized to assess within-class changes in blood pressure, lipid levels, hemoglobin A1c, and CV-related medication utilization. RESULTS: From the 621 LT4-treated study participants, the best-fit GMM approach identified 4 TSH trajectory classes, as defined by their relationship to the normal TSH range: (1) high-high normal TSH, (2) normal TSH, (3) normal to low TSH, and (4) low to normal TSH. Notably, the average baseline LT4 dose was lowest in the high-high normal TSH group (77.7 µg, P < .001). There were no significant differences in CV health markers between the classes at baseline. At least 1 significant difference in CV markers occurred in all classes, highlighted by the low to normal class, in which total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, and A1c all increased significantly (P = .049, P < .001, P < .001, and P = .001, respectively). Utilization of antihypertensive, antihyperlipidemic, and antidiabetes medications increased in all classes. CONCLUSION: GMM/LCGA represents a viable approach to define and examine LT4 treatment by TSH trajectory. More comprehensive datasets should allow for more complex trajectory modeling and analysis of clinical outcome differences between trajectory classes.

Food Insecurity and Hypoglycemia among Older Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Treated with Insulin or Sulfonylureas: The Diabetes & Aging Study.

BACKGROUND: Severe hypoglycemia is a serious adverse drug event associated with hypoglycemia-prone medications; older patients with diabetes are particularly at high risk. Economic food insecurity (food insecurity due to financial limitations) is a known risk factor for hypoglycemia; however, less is known about physical food insecurity (due to difficulty cooking or shopping for food), which may increase with age, and its association with hypoglycemia. OBJECTIVE: Study associations between food insecurity and severe hypoglycemia. DESIGN: Survey based cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: Survey responses were collected in 2019 from 1,164 older (≥ 65 years) patients with type 2 diabetes treated with insulin or sulfonylureas. MAIN MEASURES: Risk ratios (RR) for economic and physical food insecurity associated with self-reported severe hypoglycemia (low blood glucose requiring assistance) adjusted for age, financial strain, HbA1c, Charlson comorbidity score and frailty. Self-reported reasons for hypoglycemia endorsed by respondents. KEY RESULTS: Food insecurity was reported by 12.3% of the respondents; of whom 38.4% reported economic food insecurity only, 21.1% physical food insecurity only and 40.5% both. Economic food insecurity and physical food insecurity were strongly associated with severe hypoglycemia (RR = 4.3; p = 0.02 and RR = 4.4; p = 0.002, respectively). Missed meals ("skipped meals, not eating enough or waiting too long to eat") was the dominant reason (77.5%) given for hypoglycemia. CONCLUSIONS: Hypoglycemia prevention efforts among older patients with diabetes using hypoglycemia-prone medications should address food insecurity. Standard food insecurity questions, which are used to identify economic food insecurity, will fail to identify patients who have physical food insecurity only.

Willingness to take less medication for type 2 diabetes among older patients: The Diabetes & Aging Study.

BACKGROUND: To examine the willingness of older patients to take less diabetes medication (de-intensify) and to identify characteristics associated with willingness to de-intensify treatment. METHODS: Survey conducted in 2019 in an age-stratified, random sample of older (65-100 years) adults with diabetes on glucose-lowering medications in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Diabetes Registry. We classified survey responses to the question: "I would be willing to take less medication for my diabetes" as willing, neutral, or unwilling to de-intensify. Willingness to de-intensify treatment was examined by several clinical characteristics, including American Diabetes Association (ADA) health status categories used for individualizing glycemic targets. Analyses were weighted to account for over-sampling of older individuals. RESULTS: A total of 1337 older adults on glucose-lowering medication(s) were included (age 74.2 ± 6.0 years, 44% female, 54.4% non-Hispanic white). The proportions of participants willing, neutral, or unwilling to take less medication were 51.2%, 27.3%, and 21.5%, respectively. Proportions of willing to take less medication varied by age (65-74 years: 54.2% vs. 85+ years: 38.5%) and duration of diabetes (0-4 years: 61.0% vs. 15+ years: 44.2%), both p < 0.001. Patients on 1-2 medications were more willing to take less medication(s) compared with patients on 10+ medications (62.1% vs. 46.6%, p = 0.03). Similar proportions of willingness to take less medications were seen across ADA health status, and HbA1c. Willingness to take less medication(s) was similar across survey responses to questions about patient-clinician relationships. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical guidelines suggest considering treatment de-intensification in older patients with longer duration of diabetes, yet patients with these characteristics are less likely to be willing to take less medication(s).

Population-Level Portal-Based Anxiety and Depression Screening Perspectives in HIV Care Clinicians: Qualitative Study Using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research.

BACKGROUND: Depression and anxiety are common among people with HIV and are associated with inadequate viral suppression, disease progression, and increased mortality. However, depression and anxiety are underdiagnosed and undertreated in people with HIV owing to inadequate visit time and personnel availability. Conducting population-level depression and anxiety screening via the patient portal is a promising intervention that has not been studied in HIV care settings. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to explore facilitators of and barriers to implementing population-level portal-based depression and anxiety screening for people with HIV. METHODS: We conducted semistructured hour-long qualitative interviews based on the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research with clinicians at an HIV clinic. RESULTS: A total of 10 clinicians participated in interviews. In total, 10 facilitators and 7 barriers were identified across 5 Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research domains. Facilitators included advantages of systematic screening outside clinic visits; the expectation that assessment frequency could be tailored to patient needs; evidence from the literature and previous experience in other settings; respect for patient privacy; empowering patients and facilitating communication about mental health; compatibility with clinic culture, workflows, and systems; staff beliefs about the importance of mental health screening and benefits for HIV care; engaging all clinic staff and leveraging their strengths; and clear planning and communication with staff. Barriers included difficulty in ensuring prompt response to suicidal ideation; patient access, experience, and comfort using the portal; limited availability of mental health services; variations in how providers use the electronic health record and communicate with patients; limited capacity to address mental health concerns during HIV visits; staff knowledge and self-efficacy regarding the management of mental health conditions; and the impersonal approach to a sensitive topic. CONCLUSIONS: We proposed 13 strategies for implementing population-level portal-based screening for people with HIV. Before implementation, clinics can conduct local assessments of clinicians and clinic staff; engage clinicians and clinic staff with various roles and expertise to support the implementation; highlight advantages, relevance, and evidence for population-level portal-based mental health screening; make screening frequency adaptable based on patient history and symptoms; use user-centered design methods to refine results that are displayed and communicated in the electronic health record; make screening tools available for patients to use on demand in the portal; and create protocols for positive depression and anxiety screeners, including those indicating imminent risk. During implementation, clinics should communicate with clinicians and clinic staff and provide training on protocols; provide technical support and demonstrations for patients on how to use the portal; use multiple screening methods for broad reach; use patient-centered communication in portal messages; provide clinical decision support tools, training, and mentorship to help clinicians manage mental health concerns; and implement integrated behavioral health and increase mental health referral partnerships.

5-Year simulation of diabetes-related complications in people treated with tirzepatide or semaglutide versus insulin glargine.

AIM: This study compared the 5-year incidence rate of macrovascular and microvascular complications for tirzepatide, semaglutide and insulin glargine in individuals with type 2 diabetes, using the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) diabetes simulation model. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This study was a 5-year SURPASS-2 trial extrapolation, with an insulin glargine arm added as an additional comparator. The 1-year treatment effects of tirzepatide (5, 10 or 15 mg), semaglutide (1 mg) and insulin glargine on glycated haemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein and body weights were obtained from the SUSTAIN-4 and SURPASS-2 trials. We used the BRAVO model to predict 5-year complications for each study arm under two scenarios: the 1-year treatment effects persisted (optimistic) or diminished to none in 5 years (conservative). RESULTS: When compared with insulin glargine, we projected a 5-year risk reduction in cardiovascular adverse events [rate ratio (RR) 0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.67] and microvascular composite (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.64-0.70) with 15 mg tirzepatide, and 5-year risk reduction in cardiovascular adverse events (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.72-0.79) and microvascular composite (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.76-0.82) with semaglutide (1 mg) under an optimistic scenario. Lower doses of tirzepatide also had similar, albeit smaller benefits. Treatment effects for tirzepatide and semaglutide were smaller but still significantly higher than insulin glargine under a conservative scenario. The 5-year risk reduction in diabetes-related complication events and mortality for the 15 mg tirzepatide compared with insulin glargine ranged from 49% to 10% under an optimistic scenario, which was reduced by 17%-33% when a conservative scenario was assumed. CONCLUSION: With the use of the BRAVO diabetes model, tirzepatide and semaglutide exhibited potential to reduce the risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications among individuals with type 2 diabetes, compared with insulin glargine in a 5-year window. Based on the current modelling assumptions, tirzepatide (15 mg) may potentially outperform semaglutide (1 mg). While the BRAVO model offered insights, the long-term cardiovascular benefit of tirzepatide should be further validated in a prospective clinical trial.

Diabetes Life Expectancy Prediction Model Inputs and Results From Patient Surveys Compared With Electronic Health Record Abstraction: Survey Study.

Background: Prediction models are being increasingly used in clinical practice, with some requiring patient-reported outcomes (PROs). The optimal approach to collecting the needed inputs is unknown. Objective: Our objective was to compare mortality prediction model inputs and scores based on electronic health record (EHR) abstraction versus patient survey. Methods: Older patients aged ≥65 years with type 2 diabetes at an urban primary care practice in Chicago were recruited to participate in a care management trial. All participants completed a survey via an electronic portal that included items on the presence of comorbid conditions and functional status, which are needed to complete a mortality prediction model. We compared the individual data inputs and the overall model performance based on the data gathered from the survey compared to the chart review. Results: For individual data inputs, we found the largest differences in questions regarding functional status such as pushing/pulling, where 41.4% (31/75) of participants reported difficulties that were not captured in the chart with smaller differences for comorbid conditions. For the overall mortality score, we saw nonsignificant differences (P=.82) when comparing survey and chart-abstracted data. When allocating participants to life expectancy subgroups (<5 years, 5-10 years, >10 years), differences in survey and chart review data resulted in 20% having different subgroup assignments and, therefore, discordant glucose control recommendations. Conclusions: In this small exploratory study, we found that, despite differences in data inputs regarding functional status, the overall performance of a mortality prediction model was similar when using survey and chart-abstracted data. Larger studies comparing patient survey and chart data are needed to assess whether these findings are reproduceable and clinically important.

Severe hypoglycemia and falls in older adults with diabetes: The Diabetes & Aging Study.

Objective: To estimate rates of severe hypoglycemia and falls among older adults with diabetes and evaluate their association. Research Design and Methods: Survey in an age-stratified, random sample adults with diabetes age 65-100 years; respondents were asked about severe hypoglycemia (requiring assistance) and falls in the past 12 months. Prevalence ratios (adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity) estimated the increased risk of falls associated with severe hypoglycemia. Results: Among 2,158 survey respondents, 79 (3.7%) reported severe hypoglycemia, of whom 68 (86.1%) had no ED visit or hospitalization for hypoglycemia. Falls were reported by 847 (39.2%), of whom 745 (88.0%) had no fall documented in outpatient or inpatient records. Severe hypoglycemia was associated with a 70% greater prevalence of falls (adjusted prevalence ratio = 1.7 (95% CI, 1.3-2.2)). Conclusion: While clinical documentation of events likely reflects severity or care-seeking behavior, severe hypoglycemia and falls are common, under-reported life-threatening events.

The Use of Dispensary-Obtained Tetrahydrocannabinol as a Treatment for Neuropsychiatric Symptoms of Dementia.

Objective: Neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) of dementia represent a large driver of health care costs, caregiver burden, and institutionalization of people with dementia. Management options are limited, and antipsychotics are often used, although they carry a significant side effect profile. One novel option is tetrahydrocannabinol (THC); however, in the US, to obtain THC for patients with dementia, caregivers have to go to a commercial dispensary. We evaluated the effectiveness of dispensary-obtained THC for patients with dementia and NPS.Methods: Two independent reviewers reviewed charts of patients with diagnosed dementia (N = 50) seen in geriatric psychiatry between 2017 and 2021 for whom dispensary-obtained THC was recommended. The primary outcome was effectiveness in treating NPS; secondary outcomes were the proportion of caregivers who obtained and administered THC (uptake), post-THC antipsychotic use, and adverse reactions leading to treatment discontinuation.Results: Caregiver uptake of dispensary-obtained THC was high (38/50, 76%). The majority of patients (30/38, 79%) who took THC had an improvement in NPS according to their caregivers. THC was recommended most often for the NPS of agitation, aggression, irritability, lability, anxiety, and insomnia. Among the 20 patients who were taking antipsychotics at baseline and took THC, over half (12/20, 60%) were able to decrease or discontinue the antipsychotic. Adverse reactions to THC included dizziness, worsening of agitation, and worsening of paranoia; two caregivers of patients who took THC reported adverse reactions that led to treatment discontinuation.Conclusions: Our results suggest that dispensary-obtained THC can be effective in managing a subset of NPS in patients with dementia and may decrease the requirement for antipsychotics.

Screening for Emotional Distress in Patients with Cardiovascular Disease.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this article, we discuss the relationship between emotional distress and common cardiovascular disease condition, including coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, mechanical circulatory support, and heart transplant. We review screening measures that have been studied and used in clinical practice for each condition, as well as priorities for future research. RECENT FINDINGS: Studies consistently demonstrate failing to identify and treat emotional distress in patients with cardiovascular disease is associated with adverse outcomes. However, routine emotional distress screening is not formally recommended for all cardiovascular disease conditions and is limited to depression screening in select patient populations. Future research should focus on evaluating the validity and reliability of standardized screening measures across the scope of emotional distress in patients with or at risk for cardiovascular disease. Other areas of future research include implementation of evidence-based pharmaceutical treatments and integrated behavioral health approaches and interventions.

Glycemic control and diabetes complications across health status categories in older adults treated with insulin or insulin secretagogues: The Diabetes & Aging Study.

BACKGROUND: For older adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) treated with insulin or sulfonylureas, Endocrine Society guideline recommends HbA1c between 7% to <7.5% for those in good health, 7.5% to <8% for those in intermediate health, and 8% to <8.5% for those in poor health. Our aim was to examine associations between attained HbA1c below, within (reference), or above recommended target range and risk of complication or mortality. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of adults ≥65 years old with T2D treated with insulin or sulfonylureas from an integrated healthcare delivery system. Cox proportional hazards models of complications during 2019 were adjusted for sociodemographic and clinical variables. Primary outcome was a combined outcome of any microvascular or macrovascular event, severe hypoglycemia, or mortality during 12-month follow-up. RESULTS: Among 63,429 patients (mean age: 74.2 years, 46.8% women), 8773 (13.8%) experienced a complication. Complication risk was significantly elevated for patients in good health (n = 16,895) whose HbA1c was above (HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.62-2.41) or below (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.02-1.63) compared to within recommended range. Among those in intermediate health (n = 30,129), complication risk was increased for those whose HbA1c was above (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.30-1.60) but not those below the recommended range (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.89-1.09). Among those in poor health (n = 16,405), complication risk was not significantly different for those whose HbA1c was below (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.89-1.09) or above (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.88-1.06) recommended range. CONCLUSIONS: For older adults with T2D in good health, HbA1c below or above the recommended range was associated with significantly elevated complication risk. However, for those in poor health, achieving specific HbA1c levels may not be helpful in reducing the risk of complications.

The Effects of Patient Characteristics on the Management of Subclinical Hypothyroidism: A Survey of Faculty and Trainees.

OBJECTIVE: There is no universal approach to the management of subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH). This study was designed to determine the impact of patient characteristics on management decisions in SCH amongst physician faculty members and trainees. METHODS: An online survey was distributed to faculty members and medical trainees (ie, interns, residents, and fellows) at multiple academic medical centers. The survey included 9 clinical scenarios describing women with SCH with 5 management options sequenced from most "conservative" (no further treatment or monitoring) to most "aggressive" (treatment with levothyroxine). RESULTS: Of the 194 survey respondents, 95 (49.0%) were faculty members and 99 (51.0%) were trainees. Faculty members were more likely to report being "confident" or "very confident" in making the diagnosis of SCH compared to trainees (95.8% vs 46.5%, P < .001). Faculty members were also more likely to consider patient preference for treatment (60.0% vs 32.3%, P < .001). Among all respondents, the clinical factors that resulted in the highest predicted probability of treatment were hypothyroid symptoms (predicted probability [PP] 68.8%, 95% CI [65.7%-71.9%]), thyroid stimulating hormone >10 mIU/L in a 31-year-old (PP 63.9%, 95% CI [60.3%-67.3%]), and the desire for fertility (PP 52.2%, 95% CI [48.6%-56.0%]). In general, faculty members favored more aggressive treatment across all clinical scenarios. CONCLUSION: The presence of symptoms, thyroid stimulating hormone >10 mIU/L, and desire for fertility were most predictive of the decision to treat in SCH. In several clinical scenarios, both trainee and faculty decision-making demonstrated discordance with general SCH management principles.

Population Health Management Approach to Depression Symptom Monitoring in Primary Care via Patient Portal: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Depression is undertreated in primary care. Using patient portals to administer regular symptom assessments could facilitate more timely care. At an urban academic medical center outpatient clinic, patients with active portal accounts and depression on their problem list or a positive screen in the past year were randomized to assessment during triage at visits (usual care) versus usual care plus assessment via portal (population health care). Portal invitations were sent regardless of whether patients had scheduled appointments. More patients completed assessments in the population health care arm than usual care: 59% versus 18%, P < 0.001. Depression symptoms were more common among patients who completed their initial assessment via the portal versus in the clinic. In the population health care arm, 57% (N = 80/140) of patients with moderate-to-severe symptoms completed at least 1 follow-up assessment versus 37% (N = 13/35) in usual care. A portal-based population health approach could improve depression monitoring in primary care.

Demographic, Healthcare Access, and Dietary Factors Associated With Thyroid Hormone Treatments for Hypothyroidism.

CONTEXT: Clinical guidelines have recommended a trial of liothyronine (LT3) with levothyroxine (LT4) in select patients with hypothyroidism. However, little is known about the real-world use of LT3 and desiccated thyroid extract (DTE) and the characteristics of patients treated with LT3 and DTE. OBJECTIVES: (1) Determine national trends of new LT4, LT3, and DTE prescriptions in the United States; (2) determine whether sociodemographic, healthcare access, and dietary factors are associated with different thyroid hormone (TH) therapies. METHODS: Parallel cross-sectional studies were conducted using 2 datasets: (1) a national patient claims dataset (2010-2020) and (2) the National Health and Nutrition Examination Study (NHANES) dataset (1999-2016). Included participants had a diagnosis of primary or subclinical hypothyroidism. Study outcomes included the impact of demographics and healthcare access on differences in the proportion of TH therapies consisting of LT4, LT3, and DTE (patient claims) and differences in dietary behaviors between DTE-treated participants and LT4-treated matched controls (NHANES). RESULTS: On an average annual basis, 47 711 adults received at least 1 new TH prescription, with 88.3% receiving LT4 monotherapy, 2.0% receiving LT3 therapy, and 9.4% receiving DTE therapy. The proportion receiving DTE therapy increased from 5.4% in 2010 to 10.2% in 2020. In the analysis between states, high primary care and endocrinology physician densities were associated with increased use of LT4 monotherapy (odds ratio 2.51, P < .001 and odds ratio 2.71, P < .001). DTE-treated NHANES participants (n = 73) consumed more dietary supplements compared to LT4-treated participants (n = 146) (4.7 vs 2.1, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of new TH therapies containing DTE for hypothyroidism doubled since 2010 while LT3 therapies remained stable. DTE treatment was associated with decreased physician density and increased dietary supplement use.

Development and Validation of the Life Expectancy Estimator for Older Adults with Diabetes (LEAD): the Diabetes and Aging Study.

BACKGROUND: Estimated life expectancy for older patients with diabetes informs decisions about treatment goals, cancer screening, long-term and advanced care, and inclusion in clinical trials. Easily implementable, evidence-based, diabetes-specific approaches for identifying patients with limited life expectancy are needed. OBJECTIVE: Develop and validate an electronic health record (EHR)-based tool to identify older adults with diabetes who have limited life expectancy. DESIGN: Predictive modeling based on survival analysis using Cox-Gompertz models in a retrospective cohort. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with diabetes aged ≥ 65 years from Kaiser Permanente Northern California: a 2015 cohort (N = 121,396) with follow-up through 12/31/2019, randomly split into training (N = 97,085) and test (N = 24,311) sets. Validation was conducted in the test set and two temporally distinct cohorts: a 2010 cohort (n = 89,563; 10-year follow-up through 2019) and a 2019 cohort (n = 152,357; 2-year follow-up through 2020). MAIN MEASURES: Demographics, diagnoses, utilization and procedures, medications, behaviors and vital signs; mortality. KEY RESULTS: In the training set (mean age 75 years; 49% women; 48% racial and ethnic minorities), 23% died during 5 years follow-up. A mortality prediction model was developed using 94 candidate variables, distilled into a life expectancy model with 11 input variables, and transformed into a risk-scoring tool, the Life Expectancy Estimator for Older Adults with Diabetes (LEAD). LEAD discriminated well in the test set (C-statistic = 0.78), 2010 cohort (C-statistic = 0.74), and 2019 cohort (C-statistic = 0.81); comparisons of observed and predicted survival curves indicated good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: LEAD estimates life expectancy in older adults with diabetes based on only 11 patient characteristics widely available in most EHRs and claims data. LEAD is simple and has potential application for shared decision-making, clinical trial inclusion, and resource allocation.