The impact of HIV infection on tuberculosis transmission in a country with low tuberculosis incidence: a national retrospective study using molecular epidemiology.

BACKGROUND: HIV is known to increase the likelihood of reactivation of latent tuberculosis to active TB disease; however, its impact on tuberculosis infectiousness and consequent transmission is unclear, particularly in low-incidence settings. METHODS: National surveillance data from England, Wales and Northern Ireland on tuberculosis cases in adults from 2010 to 2014, strain typed using 24-locus mycobacterial-interspersed-repetitive-units-variable-number-tandem-repeats was used retrospectively to identify clusters of tuberculosis cases, subdivided into 'first' and 'subsequent' cases. Firstly, we used zero-inflated Poisson regression models to examine the association between HIV status and the number of subsequent clustered cases (a surrogate for tuberculosis infectiousness) in a strain type cluster. Secondly, we used logistic regression to examine the association between HIV status and the likelihood of being a subsequent case in a cluster (a surrogate for recent acquisition of tuberculosis infection) compared to the first case or a non-clustered case (a surrogate for reactivation of latent infection). RESULTS: We included 18,864 strain-typed cases, 2238 were the first cases of clusters and 8471 were subsequent cases. Seven hundred and fifty-nine (4%) were HIV-positive. Outcome 1: HIV-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases who were the first in a cluster had fewer subsequent cases associated with them (mean 0.6, multivariable incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.75 [0.65-0.86]) than those HIV-negative (mean 1.1). Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) cases with HIV were less likely to be the first case in a cluster compared to HIV-negative EPTB cases. EPTB cases who were the first case had a higher mean number of subsequent cases (mean 2.5, IRR (3.62 [3.12-4.19]) than those HIV-negative (mean 0.6). Outcome 2: tuberculosis cases with HIV co-infection were less likely to be a subsequent case in a cluster (odds ratio 0.82 [0.69-0.98]), compared to being the first or a non-clustered case. CONCLUSIONS: Outcome 1: pulmonary tuberculosis-HIV patients were less infectious than those without HIV. EPTB patients with HIV who were the first case in a cluster had a higher number of subsequent cases and thus may be markers of other undetected cases, discoverable by contact investigations. Outcome 2: tuberculosis in HIV-positive individuals was more likely due to reactivation than recent infection, compared to those who were HIV-negative.

A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health threat in low TB incidence countries, through a combination of reactivated disease and onward transmission. Using surveillance data from the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands (NL), we demonstrate a simple and predictable relationship between the probability of observing a cluster and its size (the number of cases with a single genotype). We demonstrate that the full range of observed cluster sizes can be described using a modified branching process model with the individual reproduction number following a Poisson lognormal distribution. We estimate that, on average, between 2010 and 2015, a TB case generated 0.41 (95% CrI 0.30,0.60) secondary cases in the UK, and 0.24 (0.14,0.48) secondary cases in the NL. A majority of cases did not generate any secondary cases. Recent transmission accounted for 39% (26%,60%) of UK cases and 23%(13%,37%) of NL cases. We predict that reducing UK transmission rates to those observed in the NL would result in 538(266,818) fewer cases annually in the UK. In conclusion, while TB in low incidence countries is strongly associated with reactivated infections, we demonstrate that recent transmission remains sufficient to warrant policies aimed at limiting local TB spread.

Trends and risk factors for death and excess all-cause mortality among notified tuberculosis patients in the UK: an analysis of surveillance data.

INTRODUCTION: In the UK, several hundred patients notified with tuberculosis (TB) die every year. The aim of this article is to describe trends in deaths among notified TB patients, explore risk factors associated with death and compare all-cause mortality in TB patients with age-specific mortality rates in the general UK population. METHODS: We used 2001-2014 data from UK national TB surveillance to explore trends and risk factors for death, and population mortality data to compare age-specific death rates among notified TB patients with annual death rates in the UK general population. RESULTS: The proportion of TB patients in the UK who died each year declined steadily from 7.1% in 2002 to 5.5% in 2014. One in five patients (21.3%) was diagnosed with TB post-mortem. Where information was available, almost half of the deaths occurred within 2 months of starting treatment. Risk factors for death included demographic, disease-specific and social risk factors. Age had by far the largest effect, with patients aged ≥80 years having a 70 times increased risk of death compared with those aged <15 years. In contrast, excess mortality determined by incidence ratios comparing all-cause mortality among TB patients with that of the general population was highest among children and the working-age population (15-64 years old). CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to control TB and improve diagnosis and treatment outcomes in the UK need to be sustained. Control efforts need to focus on socially deprived and vulnerable groups. There is a need for further in-depth analysis of deaths of TB patients in the UK to identify potentially preventable factors.

Effectiveness of pre-entry active tuberculosis and post-entry latent tuberculosis screening in new entrants to the UK: a retrospective, population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating interventions that might lead to a reduction in tuberculosis in high-income countries with a low incidence of the disease is key to accelerate progress towards its elimination. In such countries, migrants are known to contribute a large proportion of tuberculosis cases to the burden. We assessed the effectiveness of screening for active tuberculosis before entry to the UK and for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) post-entry for reduction of tuberculosis in new-entrant migrants to the UK. Additionally, we investigated the effect of access to primary care on tuberculosis incidence in this population. METHODS: We did a retrospective, population-based cohort study of migrants from 66 countries who were negative for active tuberculosis at pre-entry screening between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2014, and eligible for LTBI screening. We used record linkage to track their first contact with primary care, uptake of LTBI screening, and development of active tuberculosis in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. To assess the effectiveness of the pre-entry screening programme, we identified a control group of migrants who were not screened for active tuberculosis using the specific code for new entrants to the UK registering in primary care within the National Health Service patient registration data system. Our primary outcome was development of active tuberculosis notified to the National Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance System. FINDINGS: Our cohort comprised 224 234 migrants who were screened for active tuberculosis before entry to the UK and a control group of 118 738 migrants who were not. 103 990 (50%) migrants who were screened for active tuberculosis registered in primary care; all individuals in the control group were registered in primary care. 1828 tuberculosis cases were identified during the cohort time, of which 31 were prevalent. There were 26 incident active tuberculosis cases in migrants with no evidence of primary care registration, and 1771 cases in the entire cohort of migrants who registered in primary care (n=222 728), giving an incidence rate of 174 (95% CI 166-182) per 100 000 person-years. 672 (1%) of 103 990 migrants who were screened for active tuberculosis went on to develop tuberculosis compared with 1099 (1%) of 118 738 not screened for active tuberculosis (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1·49, 95% CI 1·33-1·67; p<0·0001). 2451 (1%) of the 222 728 migrants registered in primary care were screened for LTBI, of whom 421 (17%) tested positive and 1961 (80%) tested negative; none developed active tuberculosis within the observed time period. Migrants settling in the least deprived areas had a decreased risk of developing tuberculosis (IRR 0·74, 95% CI 0·62-0·89; p=0·002), and time from UK arrival to primary care registration of 1 year or longer was associated with increased risk of active tuberculosis (2·96, 2·59-3·38; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Pre-entry tuberculosis screening, early primary care registration, and LTBI screening are strongly and independently associated with a lower tuberculosis incidence in new-entrant migrants. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections and NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre.

Fluoroquinolones and isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis: implications for the 2018 WHO guidance.

INTRODUCTION: 2018 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for the treatment of isoniazid (H)-resistant (Hr) tuberculosis recommend a four-drug regimen: rifampicin (R), ethambutol (E), pyrazinamide (Z) and levofloxacin (Lfx), with or without H ([H]RZE-Lfx). This is used once Hr is known, such that patients complete 6 months of Lfx (≥6[H]RZE-6Lfx). This cohort study assessed the impact of fluoroquinolones (Fq) on treatment effectiveness, accounting for Hr mutations and degree of phenotypic resistance. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 626 Hr tuberculosis patients notified in London, 2009-2013. Regimens were described and logistic regression undertaken of the association between regimen and negative regimen-specific outcomes (broadly, death due to tuberculosis, treatment failure or disease recurrence). RESULTS: Of 594 individuals with regimen information, 330 (55.6%) were treated with (H)RfZE (Rf=rifamycins) and 211 (35.5%) with (H)RfZE-Fq. The median overall treatment period was 11.9 months and median Z duration 2.1 months. In a univariable logistic regression model comparing (H)RfZE with and without Fqs, there was no difference in the odds of a negative regimen-specific outcome (baseline (H)RfZE, cluster-specific odds ratio 1.05 (95% CI 0.60-1.82), p=0.87; cluster NHS trust). Results varied minimally in a multivariable model. This odds ratio dropped (0.57, 95% CI 0.14-2.28) when Hr genotype was included, but this analysis lacked power (p=0.42). CONCLUSIONS: In a high-income setting, we found a 12-month (H)RfZE regimen with a short Z duration to be similarly effective for Hr tuberculosis with or without a Fq. This regimen may result in fewer adverse events than the WHO recommendations.

Exploring the effects of BCG vaccination in patients diagnosed with tuberculosis: Observational study using the Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system.

BACKGROUND: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is one of the most widely-used vaccines worldwide. BCG primarily reduces the progression from infection to disease, however there is evidence that BCG may provide additional benefits. We aimed to investigate whether there is evidence in routinely-collected surveillance data that BCG vaccination impacts outcomes for tuberculosis (TB) cases in England. METHODS: We obtained all TB notifications for 2009-2015 in England from the Enhanced Tuberculosis surveillance system. We considered five outcomes: All-cause mortality, death due to TB (in those who died), recurrent TB, pulmonary disease, and sputum smear status. We used logistic regression, with complete case analysis, to investigate each outcome with BCG vaccination, years since vaccination and age at vaccination, adjusting for potential confounders. All analyses were repeated using multiply imputed data. RESULTS: We found evidence of an association between BCG vaccination and reduced all-cause mortality (aOR:0.76 (95%CI 0.64-0.89), P:0.001) and weak evidence of an association with reduced recurrent TB (aOR:0.90 (95%CI 0.81-1.00), P:0.056). Analyses using multiple imputation suggested that the benefits of vaccination for all-cause mortality were reduced after 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: We found that BCG vaccination was associated with reduced all-cause mortality in people with TB although this benefit was less pronounced more than 10 years after vaccination. There was weak evidence of an association with reduced recurrent TB.

The Changing Landscape of Childhood Tuberculosis in the United Kingdom: A Retrospective Cohort (2000-2015).

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) is changing in the United Kingdom and globally. Childhood TB is a key indicator of recent transmission and provides a marker of wider TB control. We describe the recent epidemiology of childhood TB in the United Kingdom, how this compares to TB in adults, and document changes with time. METHODS: TB cases notified in the United Kingdom between 2000 and 2015 were categorized as children (<15 years of age) or adults (≥15 years of age). Descriptive analyses were carried out on demographic, clinical and microbiologic data. We carried out logistic regressions to identify risk factors associated with children having no microbiologic confirmation. RESULTS: In the study period, 6293 TB cases (5%) in the United Kingdom were notified in children. Childhood TB incidence declined from 487 cases in 2000 (3.4 per 100,000) to 232 cases (2.0 per 100,000) in 2015. The majority (68%) of children with TB were UK born, with a high proportion of Pakistani (24%) and Black-African (22%) ethnicity. Sixty-four percent of children had pulmonary disease. Culture confirmation was low (24%). Children who were younger, UK born and those with extrapulmonary disease were less likely to have microbiologically confirmed TB. A high proportion (87%) of children completed treatment at last-recorded outcome, with few deaths (39 cases; 0.7%). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of TB in children in the United Kingdom has decreased in the past 16 years, with the majority of children completing TB treatment. Ongoing monitoring of childhood TB will provide a measure of the effectiveness of the national TB program.

Creating a web-based electronic tool to aid tuberculosis (TB) cluster investigation: data integration in TB surveillance activities in the United Kingdom, 2013 to 2016.

Molecular technology to identify relatedness between Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolates, representative of possible tuberculosis (TB) transmission between individuals, continues to evolve. At the same time, tools to utilise this information for public health action to improve TB control should also be implemented. Public Health England developed the Strain Typing Module (STM) as an integral part of the web-based surveillance system used in the United Kingdom following the roll-out of prospective 24 loci mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) strain typing. The creation of such a system required data integration and linkage, bringing together laboratory results and patient notification information. The STM facilitated widespread access to patient strain typing and clustering results for the public health community working in TB control. In addition, the system provided a log of cluster review and investigation decision making and results. Automated real-time data linkage between laboratory and notification data are essential to allow routine use of genotyping results in TB surveillance and control. Outputs must be accessible by those working in TB control at a local level to have any impact in ongoing public health activity.

Understanding Tuberculosis Transmission in the United Kingdom: Findings From 6 Years of Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Unit-Variable Number Tandem Repeats Strain Typing, 2010-2015.

Genotyping provides the opportunity to better understand tuberculosis (TB) transmission. We utilized strain typing data to assess trends in the proportion of clustering and identify the characteristics of individuals and clusters associated with recent United Kingdom (UK) transmission. In this retrospective cohort analysis, we included all culture-confirmed strain-typed TB notifications from the UK between 2010 and 2015 to estimate the proportion of patients that clustered over time. We explored the characteristics of patients in a cluster using multivariable logistic regression. Overall, 58.5% of TB patients were concentrated in 2,701 clusters. The proportion of patients in a cluster decreased between 2010 (58.7%) and 2015 (55.3%) (P = 0.001). Being a clustered patient was associated with being male and UK-born, having pulmonary disease, having a previous TB diagnosis, and having a history of drug misuse or imprisonment. Our results suggest that TB transmission in the UK decreased between 2010 and 2015, during which time TB incidence also decreased. Targeted cluster investigation and extended contact tracing should be aimed at persons at risk of being in a transmission chain, including UK-born individuals with social risk factors in clusters with a high proportion of patients having pulmonary disease.

Trends in, and factors associated with, HIV infection amongst tuberculosis patients in the era of anti-retroviral therapy: a retrospective study in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

BACKGROUND: HIV increases the progression of latent tuberculosis (TB) infection to active disease and contributed to increased TB in the UK until 2004. We describe temporal trends in HIV infection amongst patients with TB and identify factors associated with HIV infection. METHODS: We used national surveillance data of all TB cases reported in England, Wales and Northern Ireland from 2000 to 2014 and determined HIV status through record linkage to national HIV surveillance. We used logistic regression to identify associations between HIV and demographic, clinical and social factors. RESULTS: There were 106,829 cases of TB in adults (≥ 15 years) reported from 2000 to 2014. The number and proportion of TB patients infected with HIV decreased from 543/6782 (8.0%) in 2004 to 205/6461 (3.2%) in 2014. The proportion of patients diagnosed with HIV > 91 days prior to their TB diagnosis increased from 33.5% in 2000 to 60.2% in 2013. HIV infection was highest in people of black African ethnicity from countries with high HIV prevalence (32.3%), patients who misused drugs (8.1%) and patients with miliary or meningeal TB (17.2%). CONCLUSIONS: There has been an overall decrease in TB-HIV co-infection and a decline in the proportion of patients diagnosed simultaneously with both infections. However, high rates of HIV remain in some sub-populations of patients with TB, particularly black Africans born in countries with high HIV prevalence and people with a history of drug misuse. Whilst the current policy of testing all patients diagnosed with TB for HIV infection is important in ensuring appropriate management of TB patients, many of these TB cases would be preventable if HIV could be diagnosed before TB develops. Improving screening for both latent TB and HIV and ensuring early treatment of HIV in these populations could help prevent these TB cases. British HIV Association guidelines on latent TB testing for people with HIV from sub-Saharan Africa remain relevant, and latent TB screening for people with HIV with a history of drug misuse, homelessness or imprisonment should also be considered.

The use of whole-genome sequencing in cluster investigation of a multidrug-resistant tuberculosis outbreak.

We used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to delineate transmission networks and investigate the benefits of WGS during cluster investigation.We included clustered cases of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB)/extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB linked by mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit variable tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) strain typing or epidemiological information in the national cluster B1006, notified between 2007 and 2013 in the UK. We excluded from further investigation cases whose isolates differed by greater than 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Data relating to patients' social networks were collected.27 cases were investigated and 22 had WGS, eight of which (36%) were excluded as their isolates differed by more than 12 SNPs to other cases. 18 cases were ruled into the transmission network based on genomic and epidemiological information. Evidence of transmission was inconclusive in seven out of 18 cases (39%) in the transmission network following WGS and epidemiological investigation.This investigation of a drug-resistant TB cluster illustrates the opportunities and limitations of WGS in understanding transmission in a setting with a high proportion of migrant cases. The use of WGS should be combined with classical epidemiological methods. However, not every cluster will be solvable, regardless of the quality of genomic data.

Reduction in tuberculosis incidence in the UK from 2011 to 2015: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Following nearly two decades of increasing tuberculosis in the UK, TB incidence decreased by 32% from 2011 to 2015. Explaining this reduction is crucial to informing ongoing TB control efforts. METHODS: We stratified TB cases notified in the UK and TB cases averted in the UK through pre-entry screening (PES) between 2011 and 2015 by country of birth and time since arrival. We used population estimates and migration data to establish denominators, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) between 2011 and 2015. We calculated the contribution of changing migrant population sizes, PES and changes in TB rates to the reduction in TB notifications. RESULTS: TB IRRs fell in all non-EU migrant and UK-born populations between 2011 and 2015 (0.61; 95% CI 0.59 to 0.64 and 0.78; 0.73 to 0.83 respectively), with the greatest decrease in recent non-EU migrants (0.54; 0.48 to 0.61). 61.9% of the reduction in TB notifications was attributable to decreases in TB rates, 33.4% to a fall in the number of recent/mid-term non-EU migrants and 11.4% to PES. A small increase in notifications in EU-born migrants offset the reduction by 6.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Large decreases in TB rates in almost all populations accounted for the majority of the reduction in TB notifications, providing evidence of the impact of recent interventions to improve UK TB control. The particularly large decrease in TB rates in recent non-EU migrants provides evidence of the effectiveness of screening interventions that target this population. These findings will inform ongoing improvements to TB control.

Acquired Resistance to Antituberculosis Drugs in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, 2000-2015.

Among tuberculosis (TB) patients, acquired resistance to anti-TB drugs represents a failure in the treatment pathway. To improve diagnosis and care for patients with drug-resistant TB, we examined the epidemiology and risk factors associated with acquired drug resistance during 2000-2015 among TB patients in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. We found acquired resistance in 0.2% (158/67,710) of patients with culture-confirmed TB. Using multivariate logistic regression, we identified the following factors associated with acquired drug resistance: having pulmonary disease; initial resistance to isoniazid, rifampin, or both; a previous TB episode; and being born in China or South Africa. Treatment outcomes were worse for patients with than without acquired resistance. Although acquired resistance is rare in the study area, certain patient groups are at higher risk. Identifying these patients and ensuring that adequate resources are available for treatment may prevent acquisition of resistance, thereby limiting transmission of drug-resistant strains of mycobacteria.

Injecting drug use predicts active tuberculosis in a national cohort of people living with HIV.

OBJECTIVES: Tuberculosis (TB) is common in people living with HIV, leading to worse clinical outcomes including increased mortality. We investigated risk factors for developing TB following HIV diagnosis. DESIGN: Adults aged at least 15 years first presenting to health services for HIV care in England, Wales or Northern Ireland from 2000 to 2014 were identified from national HIV surveillance data and linked to TB surveillance data. METHODS: We calculated incidence rates for TB occurring more than 91 days after HIV diagnosis and investigated risk factors using multivariable Poisson regression. RESULTS: A total of 95 003 adults diagnosed with HIV were followed for 635 591 person-years; overall incidence of TB was 344 per 100 000 person-years (95% confidence interval 330-359). TB incidence was high for people who acquired HIV through injecting drugs [PWID; men 876 (696-1104), women 605 (365-945)] and black Africans born in high TB incidence countries [644 (612-677)]. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for TB amongst PWID was 4.79 (3.35-6.85) for men and 6.18 (3.49-10.93) for women, compared with MSM. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for TB in black Africans from high-TB countries was 4.27 (3.42-5.33), compared with white UK-born individuals. Lower time-updated CD4 cell count was associated with increased rates of TB. CONCLUSION: PWID had the greatest risk of TB; incidence rates were comparable with those in black Africans from high TB incidence countries. Most TB cases in PWID were UK-born, and likely acquired TB through transmission within the United Kingdom. Earlier HIV diagnosis and quicker initiation of antiretroviral therapy should reduce TB incidence in these populations.

Recent household transmission of tuberculosis in England, 2010-2012: retrospective national cohort study combining epidemiological and molecular strain typing data.

BACKGROUND: We estimate the proportion of tuberculosis (TB) in England due to recent household transmission, identify factors associated with being a household transmitter, and investigate the impact that identification of a case has on time to treatment of subsequent cases. METHODS: TB cases notified between 2010 and 2012 in England in the same household as another case were identified; 24 locus MIRU-VNTR strain typing (ST) was used to identify household cases with likely recent transmission. Treatment delay in index and subsequent cases was compared. Risk factors for being a household transmitter were identified in univariable and multivariable analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 7.7% (1849/24,060) of TB cases lived in a household with another case. We estimate that 3.9% were due to recent household transmission. ST data was unavailable for 67% (1242) of household pairs. For those with ST data, 64% (386) had confirmed, 11% probable (66) and 25% (155) refuted household transmission. The median treatment delay was 65 days for index cases and 37 days for subsequent asymptomatic cases. Risk factors for being a household transmitter included being under 25 years old, UK-born with Black African, Indian or Pakistani ethnicity, or born in Somalia or Romania. CONCLUSIONS: This study has a number of implications for household TB contact tracing in low incidence countries, including the potential to reduce the diagnostic delay for subsequent household cases and the benefit of using ST to identify when to conduct source contact tracing outside the household. As 25% of TB cases in households had discordant strains, households with multiple TB cases do not necessarily represent household transmission. The additional fact that 25% of index cases within households only had extra-pulmonary TB demonstrates that, if household contact tracing is limited to pulmonary TB cases (as recently recommended in UK guidelines), additional cases of active TB in households will be missed. Our finding that no lineage of TB was associated with recent household transmission and with no increased transmissibility in the Beijing lineage compared to others, suggests that the lineage need not impact contact tracing efforts. Improvements in contact tracing have the potential to reduce transmission of TB in low incidence countries.

Twenty years and counting: epidemiology of an outbreak of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis in England and Wales, 1995 to 2014.

An outbreak of isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis first identified in London has now been ongoing for 20 years, making it the largest drug-resistant outbreak of tuberculosis documented to date worldwide. We identified culture-confirmed cases with indistinguishable molecular strain types and extracted demographic, clinical, microbiological and social risk factor data from surveillance systems. We summarised changes over time and used kernel-density estimation and k-function analysis to assess geographic clustering. From 1995 to 2014, 508 cases were reported, with a declining trend in recent years. Overall, 70% were male (n = 360), 60% born in the United Kingdom (n = 306), 39% white (n = 199), and 26% black Caribbean (n = 134). Median age increased from 25 years in the first 5 years to 42 in the last 5. Approximately two thirds of cases reported social risk factors: 45% drug use (n = 227), 37% prison link (n = 189), 25% homelessness (n = 125) and 13% alcohol dependence (n = 64). Treatment was completed at 12 months by 52% of cases (n = 206), and was significantly lower for those with social risk factors (p < 0.05), but increased over time for all patients (p < 0.05). The outbreak remained focused in north London throughout. Control of this outbreak requires continued efforts to prevent and treat further active cases through targeted screening and enhanced case management.

Epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis Disease in Humans in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, 2002-2014.

Despite control efforts, Mycobacterium bovis incidence among cattle remains high in parts of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, attracting political and public health interest in potential spread from animals to humans. To determine incidence among humans and to identify associated factors, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of human M. bovis cases in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland during 2002-2014. We identified 357 cases and observed increased annual case numbers (from 17 to 35) and rates. Most patients were >65 years of age and born in the United Kingdom. The median age of UK-born patients decreased over time. For 74% of patients, exposure to risk factors accounting for M. bovis acquisition, most frequently consumption of unpasteurized milk, was known. Despite the small increase in case numbers and reduction in patient age, M. bovis infection of humans in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland remains rare.

TB in healthcare workers in the UK: a cohort analysis 2009-2013.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the burden of TB in healthcare workers (HCWs) in the UK and determine whether HCWs are at increased risk of TB due to occupational exposure. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis of national UK TB surveillance and genotyping data between 2009 and 2013. The rate of TB in HCWs compared with non-HCWs to calculate incidence rate ratios stratified by country of birth. RESULTS: 2320 cases of TB in HCWs were notified in the study period, 85% were born abroad. The TB rate in HCWs was 23.4 (95% CI 22.5 to 24.4) per 100 000 compared with 16.2 (95% CI 16.0 to 16.3) per 100 000 in non-HCWs. After stratifying by country of birth, there was not an increased TB incidence in HCWs for the majority of countries of birth, including in the UK-born. Using combined genotyping and epidemiological data, only 10 confirmed nosocomial transmission events involving HCWs were identified between 2010 and 2012. Of these, only two involved transmission to patients. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of an increased risk of TB after stratifying by country of birth, and the very few transmission events involving nosocomial transmission in the UK suggests that TB in HCWs in the UK is not generally acquired through UK occupational exposure. The majority of cases in foreign-born HCWs are likely to result from reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI) acquired abroad, and is not likely to be prevented by BCG vaccination in the UK. Testing and treatment of LTBI in HCWs with exposure to high TB burden countries should be the focus of occupational health prevention activities.

Insidious Risk of Severe Mycobacterium chimaera Infection in Cardiac Surgery Patients.

BACKGROUND: An urgent UK investigation was launched to assess risk of invasive Mycobacterium chimaera infection in cardiothoracic surgery and a possible association with cardiopulmonary bypass heater-cooler units following alerts in Switzerland and The Netherlands. METHODS: Parallel investigations were pursued: (1) identification of cardiopulmonary bypass-associated M. chimaera infection through national laboratory and hospital admissions data linkage; (2) cohort study to assess patient risk; (3) microbiological and aerobiological investigations of heater-coolers in situ and under controlled laboratory conditions; and (4) whole-genome sequencing of clinical and environmental isolates. RESULTS: Eighteen probable cases of cardiopulmonary bypass-associated M. chimaera infection were identified; all except one occurred in adults. Patients had undergone valve replacement in 11 hospitals between 2007 and 2015, a median of 19 months prior to onset (range, 3 months to 5 years). Risk to patients increased after 2010 from <0.2 to 1.65 per 10000 person-years in 2013, a 9-fold rise for infections within 2 years of surgery (rate ratio, 9.08 [95% CI, 1.81-87.76]). Endocarditis was the most common presentation (n = 11). To date, 9 patients have died. Investigations identified aerosol release through breaches in heater-cooler tanks. Mycobacterium chimaera and other pathogens were recovered from water and air samples. Phylogenetic analysis found close clustering of strains from probable cases. CONCLUSIONS: We identified low but escalating risk of severe M. chimaera infection associated with heater-coolers with cases in a quarter of cardiothoracic centers. Our investigations strengthen etiological evidence for the role of heater-coolers in transmission and raise the possibility of an ongoing, international point-source outbreak. Active management of heater-coolers and heightened clinical awareness are imperative given the consequences of infection.

Tuberculosis in migrants moving from high-incidence to low-incidence countries: a population-based cohort study of 519 955 migrants screened before entry to England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis elimination in countries with a low incidence of the disease necessitates multiple interventions, including innovations in migrant screening. We examined a cohort of migrants screened for tuberculosis before entry to England, Wales, and Northern Ireland and tracked the development of disease in this group after arrival. METHODS: As part of a pilot pre-entry screening programme for tuberculosis in 15 countries with a high incidence of the disease, the International Organization for Migration screened all applicants for UK visas aged 11 years or older who intended to stay for more than 6 months. Applicants underwent a chest radiograph, and any with results suggestive of tuberculosis underwent sputum testing and culture testing (when available). We tracked the development of tuberculosis in those who tested negative for the disease and subsequently migrated to England, Wales, and Northern Ireland with the Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system. Primary outcomes were cases of all forms of tuberculosis (including clinically diagnosed cases), and bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. FINDINGS: Our study cohort was 519 955 migrants who were screened for tuberculosis before entry to the UK between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2012. Cases notified on the Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2013, were included. 1873 incident cases of all forms of tuberculosis were identified, and, on the basis of data for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, the estimated incidence of all forms of tuberculosis in migrants screened before entry was 147 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 140-154). The estimated incidence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in migrants screened before entry was 49 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 45-53). Migrants whose chest radiographs were compatible with active tuberculosis but with negative pre-entry microbiological results were at increased risk of tuberculosis compared with those with no radiographic abnormalities (incidence rate ratio 3·2, 95% CI 2·8-3·7; p<0·0001). Incidence of tuberculosis after migration increased significantly with increasing WHO-estimated prevalence of tuberculosis in migrants' countries of origin. 35 of 318 983 pre-entry screened migrants included in a secondary analysis with typing data were assumed index cases. Estimates of the rate of assumed reactivation tuberculosis ranged from 46 (95% CI 42-52) to 91 (82-102) per 100 000 population. INTERPRETATION: Migrants from countries with a high incidence of tuberculosis screened before being granted entry to low-incidence countries pose a negligible risk of onward transmission but are at increased risk of tuberculosis, which could potentially be prevented through identification and treatment of latent infection in close collaboration with a pre-entry screening programme. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, Public Health England, and Department of Health Policy Research Programme.