Drivers for a pandemic due to avian influenza and options for One Health mitigation measures.

Avian influenza viruses (AIV) remain prevalent among wild bird populations in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA), leading to significant illness in and death of birds. Transmission between bird and mammal species has been observed, particularly in fur animal farms, where outbreaks have been reported. While transmission from infected birds to humans is rare, there have been instances of exposure to these viruses since 2020 without any symptomatic infections reported in the EU/EEA. However, these viruses continue to evolve globally, and with the migration of wild birds, new strains carrying potential mutations for mammalian adaptation could be selected. If avian A(H5N1) influenza viruses acquire the ability to spread efficiently among humans, large-scale transmission could occur due to the lack of immune defences against H5 viruses in humans. The emergence of AIV capable of infecting mammals, including humans, can be facilitated by various drivers. Some intrinsic drivers are related to virus characteristics or host susceptibility. Other drivers are extrinsic and may increase exposure of mammals and humans to AIV thereby stimulating mutation and adaptation to mammals. Extrinsic drivers include the ecology of host species, such as including wildlife, human activities like farming practices and the use of natural resources, climatic and environmental factors. One Health measures to mitigate the risk of AIV adapting to mammals and humans focus on limiting exposure and preventing spread. Key options for actions include enhancing surveillance targeting humans and animals, ensuring access to rapid diagnostics, promoting collaboration between animal and human sectors, and implementing preventive measures such as vaccination. Effective communication to different involved target audiences should be emphasised, as well as strengthening veterinary infrastructure, enforcing biosecurity measures at farms, and reducing wildlife contact with domestic animals. Careful planning of poultry and fur animal farming, especially in areas with high waterfowl density, is highlighted for effective risk reduction.

The impact of conflict on infectious disease: a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Conflict situations, armed or not, have been associated with emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. This review aims to identify the pathways through which infectious diseases emerge within conflict situations and to outline appropriate infectious disease preparedness and response strategies. METHODS: A systematic review was performed representing published evidence from January 2000 to October 2023. Ovid Medline and Embase were utilised to obtain literature on infectious diseases in any conflict settings. The systematic review adhered to PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis). No geographical restrictions were imposed. FINDINGS: Our review identified 51 studies covering AIDS, Hepatitis B, Tuberculosis, Cholera, Coronavirus 2, Ebola, Poliomyelitis, Malaria, Leishmaniasis, Measles, Diphtheria, Dengue and Acute Bacterial Meningitis within conflict settings in Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Africa since October 2023. Key factors contributing to disease emergence and transmission in conflict situations included population displacement, destruction of vital infrastructure, reduction in functioning healthcare systems and healthcare personnel, disruption of disease control programmes (including reduced surveillance, diagnostic delays, and interrupted vaccinations), reduced access by healthcare providers to populations within areas of active conflict, increased population vulnerability due to limited access to healthcare services, and disruptions in the supply chain of safe water, food, and medication. To mitigate these infectious disease risks reported preparedness and response strategies included both disease-specific intervention strategies as well as broader concepts such as the education of conflict-affected populations through infectious disease awareness programmes, investing in and enabling health care in locations with displaced populations, intensifying immunisation campaigns, and ensuring political commitment and intersectoral collaborations between governments and international organisations. CONCLUSION: Conflict plays a direct and indirect role in the transmission and propagation of infectious diseases. The findings from this review can assist decision-makers in the development of evidence-based preparedness and response strategies for the timely and effective containment of infectious disease outbreaks in conflict zones and amongst conflict-driven displaced populations. FUNDING: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control under specific contract No. 22 ECD.13,154 within Framework contract ECDC/2019/001 Lot 1B.

Cost of the COVID-19 pandemic versus the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies in EU/UK/OECD: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: The economic burden of COVID-19 pandemic is substantial, with both direct and indirect costs playing a significant role. DESIGN: A systematic literature review was conducted to estimate the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic and the cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical or non-pharmaceutical interventions. All cost data were adjusted to the 2021 Euro, and interventions compared with null. DATA SOURCES: Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from January 2020 through 22 April 2021. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies regarding COVID-19 outbreak or public health preparedness measures or interventions with outcome measures related to the direct and indirect costs for disease and preparedness and/or response in countries of the European Union (EU), the European Economic Area (EEA), the UK and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) of all relevant epidemiological designs which estimate cost within the selected time frame were considered eligible. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Studies were searched, screened and coded independently by two reviewers with high measure of inter-rater agreement. Data were extracted to a predefined data extraction sheet. The risk of bias was assessed using the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria checklist. RESULTS: We included data from 41 economic studies. Ten studies evaluated the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic, while 31 assessed the cost-benefit of public health surveillance, preparedness and response measures. Overall, the economic burden of the COVID-19 pandemic was found to be substantial. Community screening, bed provision policies, investing in personal-protective-equipment and vaccination strategies were cost-effective. Physical distancing measures were associated with health benefits; however, their cost-effectiveness was dependent on the duration, compliance and the phase of the epidemic in which it was implemented. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 pandemic is associated with substantial short-term and long-term economic costs to healthcare systems, payers and societies, while interventions including testing and screening policies, vaccination and physical distancing policies were identified as those presenting cost-effective options to deal with the pandemic, dependent on population vaccination and the Re at the stage of the pandemic.

Systematic review of outbreaks of COVID-19 within households in the European region when the child is the index case.

OBJECTIVES: This systematic review aims to identify the secondary attack rates (SAR) to adults and other children when children are the index cases within household settings. METHODS: This literature review assessed European-based studies published in Medline and Embase between January 2020 and January 2022 that assessed the secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within household settings. The inclusion criteria were based on the Population, Exposure, Outcome framework for systematic reviews. Thus, the study population was restricted to humans within the household setting in Europe (population), in contact with paediatric index cases 1-17 years old (exposure) that led to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 reported as either an SAR or the probability of onward infection (outcome). RESULTS: Of 1819 studies originally identified, 19 met the inclusion criteria. Overall, the SAR ranged from 13% to 75% in 15 studies, while there was no evidence of secondary transmission from children to other household members in one study. Evidence indicated that asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 index cases also have a lower SAR than those with symptoms and that younger children may have a lower SAR than adolescents (>12 years old) within household settings. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 secondary transmission from paediatric index cases ranged from 0% to 75%, within household settings between January 2020 and January 2022, with differences noted by age and by symptomatic/asymptomatic status of the index case. Given the anticipated endemic circulation of SARS-CoV-2, continued monitoring and assessment of household transmission is necessary.

Prognostic factors for mortality, intensive care unit and hospital admission due to SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies in Europe.

BACKGROUND: As mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is strongly age-dependent, we aimed to identify population subgroups at an elevated risk for adverse outcomes from COVID-19 using age-/gender-adjusted data from European cohort studies with the aim to identify populations that could potentially benefit from booster vaccinations. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to investigate the role of underlying medical conditions as prognostic factors for adverse outcomes due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), including death, hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mechanical ventilation within three separate settings (community, hospital and ICU). Cohort studies that reported at least age and gender-adjusted data from Europe were identified through a search of peer-reviewed articles published until 11 June 2021 in Ovid Medline and Embase. Results are presented as odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals and absolute risk differences in deaths per 1000 COVID-19 patients. FINDINGS: We included 88 cohort studies with age-/gender-adjusted data from 6 653 207 SARS-CoV-2 patients from Europe. Hospital-based mortality was associated with high and moderate certainty evidence for solid organ tumours, diabetes mellitus, renal disease, arrhythmia, ischemic heart disease, liver disease and obesity, while a higher risk, albeit with low certainty, was noted for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure. Community-based mortality was associated with a history of heart failure, stroke, diabetes and end-stage renal disease. Evidence of high/moderate certainty revealed a strong association between hospitalisation for COVID-19 and solid organ transplant recipients, sleep apnoea, diabetes, stroke and liver disease. INTERPRETATION: The results confirmed the strong association between specific prognostic factors and mortality and hospital admission. Prioritisation of booster vaccinations and the implementation of nonpharmaceutical protective measures for these populations may contribute to a reduction in COVID-19 mortality, ICU and hospital admissions.

Increasing risk of breakthrough COVID-19 in outbreaks with high attack rates in European long-term care facilities, July to October 2021.

We collected data from 10 EU/EEA countries on 240 COVID-19 outbreaks occurring from July-October 2021 in long-term care facilities with high vaccination coverage. Among 17,268 residents, 3,832 (22.2%) COVID-19 cases were reported. Median attack rate was 18.9% (country range: 2.8-52.4%), 17.4% of cases were hospitalised, 10.2% died. In fully vaccinated residents, adjusted relative risk for COVID-19 increased with outbreak attack rate. Findings highlight the importance of early outbreak detection and rapid containment through effective infection prevention and control measures.

Very little influenza in the WHO European Region during the 2020/21 season, weeks 40 2020 to 8 2021.

Between weeks 40 2020 and 8 2021, the World Health Organization European Region experienced a 99.8% reduction in sentinel influenza virus positive detections (33/25,606 tested; 0.1%) relative to an average of 14,966/39,407 (38.0%; p < 0.001) over the same time in the previous six seasons. COVID-19 pandemic public health and physical distancing measures may have extinguished the 2020/21 European seasonal influenza epidemic with just a few sporadic detections of all viral subtypes. This might possibly continue during the remainder of the influenza season.

Differential uptake of herpes zoster vaccination associated with socioeconomic status: A population-based study in Stockholm County, Sweden.

PURPOSE: To investigate whether herpes zoster vaccine (HZV) was associated with socioeconomic status in Stockholm, when the vaccine was reimbursed in Sweden. METHODS: This was an observational retrospective case-control study, using population-based health care registers. During the study period, September 2013 to November 2014, the HZV was reimbursed as part of the National Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme in Sweden and recommended for individuals over 50 years. A case was any person, living in Stockholm County, who received HZV during the study period. For each case, 10 (unvaccinated) controls living in Stockholm County were selected and matched by age and sex. In total, 9099 cases and 89 736 controls were included. Socioeconomic variables investigated included education, income, immigration status, and marital status. We also investigated whether HZV was associated with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and/or previous herpes zoster diagnosis. RESULTS: Mean age at vaccination was 69.8 years, and 65.8% of vaccinees were women. There was a positive association between vaccination and higher education (OR = 3.4 (95% CI 3.0-3.8) for men and OR = 2.8 (95% CI 2.6-3.0) for women, respectively) in comparison to primary education. Higher income and being married were positively associated with vaccination, particularly for men, whereas being an immigrant was negatively associated. There was a negative association between a higher CCI score and HZV, indicating that healthier individuals were more likely to have been vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the vaccine being part of the National Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme, receipt of the HZV was significantly associated with socioeconomic factors.

Antibody Affinity Against 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza and Pandemrix Vaccine Nucleoproteins Differs Between Childhood Narcolepsy Patients and Controls.

Increased narcolepsy incidence was observed in Sweden following the 2009 influenza vaccination with Pandemrix®. A substitution of the 2009 nucleoprotein for the 1934 variant has been implicated in narcolepsy development. The aims were to determine (a) antibody levels toward wild-type A/H1N1-2009[A/California/04/2009(H1N1)] (NP-CA2009) and Pandemrix-[A/Puerto Rico/8/1934(H1N1)] (NP-PR1934) nucleoproteins in 43 patients and 64 age-matched controls; (b) antibody affinity in reciprocal competitive assays in 11 childhood narcolepsy patients compared with 21 age-matched controls; and (c) antibody levels toward wild-type A/H1N1-2009[A/California/04/2009(H1N1)] (H1N1 NS1), not a component of the Pandemrix vaccine. In vitro transcribed and translated 35S-methionine-labeled H1N1 influenza A virus proteins were used in radiobinding reciprocal competition assays to estimate antibody levels and affinity (Kd). Childhood patients had higher NP-CA2009 (p = 0.0339) and NP-PR1934 (p = 0.0246) antibody levels compared with age-matched controls. These childhood controls had lower NP-CA2009 (p = 0.0221) and NP-PR1934 (p = 0.00619) antibodies compared with controls 13 years or older. In contrast, in patients 13 years or older, the levels of NP-PR1934 (p = 0.279) and NP-CA2009 (p = 0.0644) antibodies did not differ from the older controls. Childhood antibody affinity (Kd) against NP-CA2009 was comparable between controls (68 ng/mL) and patients (74 ng/mL; p = 0.21) with NP-CA2009 and NP-PR1934 displacement (controls: 165 ng/mL; patients: 199 ng/mL; p = 0.48). In contrast, antibody affinity against NP-PR1934 was higher in controls with either NP-PR1934 (controls: 9 ng/mL; patients: 20 ng/mL; p = 0.0031) or NP-CA2009 (controls: 14 ng/mL; patients: 23 ng/mL; p = 0.0048). A/H1N1-NS1 antibodies were detected in 0/43 of the narcolepsy patients compared with 3/64 (4.7%) controls (p = 0.272). Similarly, none (0/11) of the childhood patients and 1/21 (4.8%) of the childhood controls had A/H1N1-NS1 antibodies. The higher antibody affinities against NP-PR1934 in controls suggest better protection against wild-type virus. In contrast, the reduced NP-PR1934 antibody affinities among childhood narcolepsy patients suggest poor protection from the wild-type A/H1N1 virus and possibly increased risk for viral damage.

No Evidence for Disease History as a Risk Factor for Narcolepsy after A(H1N1)pdm09 Vaccination.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate disease history before A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination as a risk factor for narcolepsy. METHODS: Case-control study in Sweden. Cases included persons referred for a Multiple Sleep Latency Test between 2009 and 2010, identified through diagnostic sleep centres and confirmed through independent review of medical charts. Controls, selected from the total population register, were matched to cases on age, gender, MSLT-referral date and county of residence. Disease history (prescriptions and diagnoses) and vaccination history was collected through telephone interviews and population-based healthcare registers. Conditional logistic regression was used to investigate disease history before A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination as a risk-factor for narcolepsy. RESULTS: In total, 72 narcolepsy cases and 251 controls were included (range 3-69 years mean19-years). Risk of narcolepsy was increased in individuals with a disease history of nervous system disorders (OR range = 3.6-8.8) and mental and behavioural disorders (OR = 3.8, 95% CI 1.6-8.8) before referral. In a second analysis of vaccinated individuals only, nearly all initial associations were no longer statistically significant and effect sizes were smaller (OR range = 1.3-2.6). A significant effect for antibiotics (OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.8) and a marginally significant effect for nervous system disorders was observed. In a third case-only analysis, comparing cases referred before vaccination to those referred after; prescriptions for nervous system disorders (OR = 26.0 95% CI 4.0-170.2) and ADHD (OR = 35.3 95% CI 3.4-369.9) were statistically significant during the vaccination period, suggesting initial associations were due to confounding by indication. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study do not support disease history before A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination as a risk factor for narcolepsy.

A/H1N1 antibodies and TRIB2 autoantibodies in narcolepsy patients diagnosed in conjunction with the Pandemrix vaccination campaign in Sweden 2009-2010.

Narcolepsy is a lifelong sleep disorder related to hypocretin deficiency resulting from a specific loss of hypocretin-producing neurons in the lateral hypothalamic area. The disease is thought to be autoimmune due to a strong association with HLA-DQB1*06:02. In 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the H1N1 2009 flu pandemic (A/H1N1PDM09). In response to this, the Swedish vaccination campaign began in October of the same year, using the influenza vaccine Pandemrix(®). A few months later an excess of narcolepsy cases was observed. It is still unclear to what extent the vaccination campaign affected humoral autoimmunity associated with narcolepsy. We studied 47 patients with narcolepsy (6-69 years of age) and 80 healthy controls (3-61 years of age) selected after the Pandemrix vaccination campaign. The first aim was to determine antibodies against A/H1N1 and autoantibodies to Tribbles homolog 2 (TRIB2), a narcolepsy autoantigen candidate as well as to GAD65 and IA-2 as disease specificity controls. The second aim was to test if levels and frequencies of these antibodies and autoantibodies were associated with HLA-DQB1*06:02. In vitro transcribed and translated [(35)S]-methionine and -cysteine-labeled influenza A virus (A/California/04/2009/(H1N1)) segment 4 hemagglutinin was used to detect antibodies in a radiobinding assay. Autoantibodies to TRIB2, GAD65 and IA-2 were similarly detected in standard radiobinding assays. The narcolepsy patients had higher median levels of A/H1N1 antibodies than the controls (p = 0.006). A/H1N1 antibody levels were higher among the <13 years old (n = 12) compared to patients who were older than 30 years (n = 12, p = 0.014). Being HLA-DQB1*06:02 positive was associated with higher A/H1N1 antibody levels in both patients and controls (p = 0.026). Serum autoantibody levels to TRIB2 were low overall and high binders did not differ between patients and controls. We observed an association between levels of A/H1N1 antibodies and TRIB2 autoantibody levels particularly among the youngest narcolepsy patients (r = 0.819, p < 0.001). In conclusion, following the 2009 influenza pandemic vaccination, A/H1N1 antibody levels were associated with young age-at-onset narcolepsy patients positive for HLA-DQB1*06:02. The possibility that TRIB2 is an autoantigen in narcolepsy remains to be clarified. We could verify autoantibody responses against TRIB2 which needs to be determined in larger patient cohorts and control populations.