Disentangling effects of dispersal, environment and anthropogenic barriers on functional connectivity in aquatic systems.

Disentangling the roles of structural landscape factors and animal movement behaviour can present challenges for practitioners managing landscapes to maintain functional connectivity and achieve conservation goals. We used a landscape genetics approach to combine robust demographic, behavioural and genetic datasets with spatially explicit simulations to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic barriers (dams, culverts) and natural landscape resistance (gradient, elevation) affecting dispersal behaviour, genetic connectivity and genetic structure in a resident population of Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi). Analyses based on 10 years of sampling effort revealed a pattern of restricted dispersal, and population genetics identified discrete population clusters between distal tributaries and the mainstem stream and no structure within the mainstem stream. Demogenetic simulations demonstrated that, for this population, the effects of existing anthropogenic barriers on population structure are redundant with effects of restricted dispersal associated with the underlying environmental resistance. Our approach provides an example of how extensive field sampling combined with landscape genetics can be incorporated into spatially explicit simulation modelling to explore how, together, movement ecology and landscape resistance can be used to inform decisions around restoration and connectivity.

A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19.

Background: Under-reporting and, thus, uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting systems. While the problem of under-reporting is acknowledged in epidemiology, the guidance and methods available for assessing and correcting the resulting bias are obscure. Objective: We aim to design a simple modification to the Susceptible - Infected - Removed (SIR) model for estimating the fraction or proportion of reported infection cases. Methods: The suggested modification involves rescaling of the classical SIR model producing its mathematically equivalent version with explicit dependence on the reporting parameter (true proportion of cases reported). We justify the rescaling using the phase plane analysis of the SIR model system and show how this rescaling parameter can be estimated from the data along with the other model parameters. Results: We demonstrate how the proposed method is cross-validated using simulated data with known disease cases and then apply it to two empirical reported data sets to estimate the fraction of reported cases in Missoula County, Montana, USA, using: (1) flu data for 2016-2017 and (2) COVID-19 data for fall of 2020. Conclusions: We establish with the simulated and COVID-19 data that when most of the disease cases are presumed reported, the value of the additional reporting parameter in the modified SIR model is close or equal to one, so that the original SIR model is appropriate for data analysis. Conversely, the flu example shows that when the reporting parameter is close to zero, the original SIR model is not accurately estimating the usual rate parameters, and the re-scaled SIR model should be used. This research demonstrates the role of under-reporting of disease data and the importance of accounting for under-reporting when modeling simulated, endemic, and pandemic disease data. Correctly reporting the "true" number of disease cases will have downstream impacts on predictions of disease dynamics. A simple parameter adjustment to the SIR modeling framework can help alleviate bias and uncertainty around crucial epidemiological metrics (e.g.: basic disease reproduction number) and public health decision making.

Seasonal extreme temperatures and short-term fine particulate matter increases pediatric respiratory healthcare encounters in a sparsely populated region of the intermountain western United States.

BACKGROUND: Western Montana, USA, experiences complex air pollution patterns with predominant exposure sources from summer wildfire smoke and winter wood smoke. In addition, climate change related temperatures events are becoming more extreme and expected to contribute to increases in hospital admissions for a range of health outcomes. Evaluating while accounting for these exposures (air pollution and temperature) that often occur simultaneously and may act synergistically on health is becoming more important. METHODS: We explored short-term exposure to air pollution on children's respiratory health outcomes and how extreme temperature or seasonal period modify the risk of air pollution-associated healthcare events. The main outcome measure included individual-based address located respiratory-related healthcare visits for three categories: asthma, lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), and upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) across western Montana for ages 0-17 from 2017-2020. We used a time-stratified, case-crossover analysis with distributed lag models to identify sensitive exposure windows of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) lagged from 0 (same-day) to 14 prior-days modified by temperature or season. RESULTS: For asthma, increases of 1 µg/m3 in PM2.5 exposure 7-13 days prior a healthcare visit date was associated with increased odds that were magnified during median to colder temperatures and winter periods. For LRTIs, 1 µg/m3 increases during 12 days of cumulative PM2.5 with peak exposure periods between 6-12 days before healthcare visit date was associated with elevated LRTI events, also heightened in median to colder temperatures but no seasonal effect was observed. For URTIs, 1 unit increases during 13 days of cumulative PM2.5 with peak exposure periods between 4-10 days prior event date was associated with greater risk for URTIs visits that were intensified during median to hotter temperatures and spring to summer periods. CONCLUSIONS: Delayed, short-term exposure increases of PM2.5 were associated with elevated odds of all three pediatric respiratory healthcare visit categories in a sparsely population area of the inter-Rocky Mountains, USA. PM2.5 in colder temperatures tended to increase instances of asthma and LRTIs, while PM2.5 during hotter periods increased URTIs.

Seasonal extreme temperatures and short-term fine particulate matter increases child respiratory hospitalizations in a sparsely populated region of the intermountain western United States.

Background: Western Montana, USA, experiences complex air pollution patterns with predominant exposure sources from summer wildfire smoke and winter wood smoke. In addition, climate change related temperatures events are becoming more extreme and expected to contribute to increases in hospital admissions for a range of health outcomes. Few studies have evaluated these exposures (air pollution and temperature) that often occur simultaneously and may act synergistically on health. Methods: We explored short-term exposure to air pollution on childhood respiratory health outcomes and how extreme temperature or seasonal period modify the risk of air pollution-associated hospitalizations. The main outcome measure included all respiratory-related hospital admissions for three categories: asthma, lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), and upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) across western Montana for all individuals aged 0-17 from 2017-2020. We used a time-stratified, case-crossover analysis and distributed lag models to identify sensitive exposure windows of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) lagged from 0 (same-day) to 15 prior-days modified by temperature or season. Results: Short-term exposure increases of 1 µg/m3 in PM2.5 were associated with elevated odds of all three respiratory hospital admission categories. PM2.5 was associated with the largest increased odds of hospitalizations for asthma at lag 7-13 days [1.87(1.17-2.97)], for LRTI at lag 6-12 days [2.18(1.20-3.97)], and for URTI at a cumulative lag of 13 days [1.29(1.07-1.57)]. The impact of PM2.5 varied by temperature and season for each respiratory outcome scenario. For asthma, PM2.5 was associated most strongly during colder temperatures [3.11(1.40-6.89)] and the winter season [3.26(1.07-9.95)]. Also in colder temperatures, PM2.5 was associated with increased odds of LRTI hospitalization [2.61(1.15-5.94)], but no seasonal effect was observed. Finally, 13 days of cumulative PM2.5 prior to admissions date was associated with the greatest increased odds of URTI hospitalization during summer days [3.35(1.85-6.04)] and hotter temperatures [1.71(1.31-2.22)]. Conclusions: Children's respiratory-related hospital admissions were associated with short-term exposure to PM2.5. PM2.5 associations with asthma and LRTI hospitalizations were strongest during cold periods, whereas associations with URTI were largest during hot periods. Classification: environmental public health, fine particulate matter air pollution, respiratory infections.

Corridor-based approach with spatial cross-validation reveals scale-dependent effects of geographic distance, human footprint and canopy cover on grizzly bear genetic connectivity.

Understanding how human infrastructure and other landscape attributes affect genetic differentiation in animals is an important step for identifying and maintaining dispersal corridors for these species. We built upon recent advances in the field of landscape genetics by using an individual-based and multiscale approach to predict landscape-level genetic connectivity for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) across ~100,000 km2 in Canada's southern Rocky Mountains. We used a genetic dataset with 1156 unique individuals genotyped at nine microsatellite loci to identify landscape characteristics that influence grizzly bear gene flow at multiple spatial scales and map predicted genetic connectivity through a matrix of rugged terrain, large protected areas, highways and a growing human footprint. Our corridor-based modelling approach used a machine learning algorithm that objectively parameterized landscape resistance, incorporated spatial cross validation and variable selection and explicitly accounted for isolation by distance. This approach avoided overfitting, discarded variables that did not improve model performance across withheld test datasets and spatial predictive capacity compared to random cross-validation. We found that across all spatial scales, geographic distance explained more variation in genetic differentiation in grizzly bears than landscape variables. Human footprint inhibited connectivity across all spatial scales, while open canopies inhibited connectivity at the broadest spatial scale. Our results highlight the negative effect of human footprint on genetic connectivity, provide strong evidence for using spatial cross-validation in landscape genetics analyses and show that multiscale analyses provide additional information on how landscape variables affect genetic differentiation.

Simulating plasticity as a framework for understanding habitat selection and its role in adaptive capacity and extinction risk through an expansion of CDMetaPOP.

Adaptive capacity can present challenges for modelling as it encompasses multiple ecological and evolutionary processes such as natural selection, genetic drift, gene flow and phenotypic plasticity. Spatially explicit, individual-based models provide an outlet for simulating these complex interacting eco-evolutionary processes. We expanded the existing Cost-Distance Meta-POPulation (CDMetaPOP) framework with inducible plasticity modelled as a habitat selection behaviour, using temperature or habitat quality variables, with a genetically based selection threshold conditioned on past individual experience. To demonstrate expected results in the new module, we simulated hypothetical populations and then evaluated model performance in populations of redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri) across three watersheds where temperatures induce physiological stress in parts of the stream network. We ran simulations using projected warming stream temperature data under four scenarios for alleles that: (1) confer thermal tolerance, (2) bestow plastic habitat selection, (3) give both thermal tolerance and habitat selection preference and (4) do not provide either thermal tolerance or habitat selection. Inclusion of an adaptive allele decreased declines in population sizes, but this impact was greatly reduced in the relatively cool stream networks. As anticipated with the new module, high-temperature patches remained unoccupied by individuals with the allele operating plastically after exposure to warm temperatures. Using complete habitat avoidance above the stressful temperature threshold, habitat selection reduced the overall population size due to the opportunity cost of avoiding areas with increased, but not guaranteed, mortality. Inclusion of plasticity within CDMetaPOP will provide the potential for genetic or plastic traits and 'rescue' to affect eco-evolutionary dynamics for research questions and conservation applications.

Evaluating the evolutionary mechanisms maintaining alternative mating strategies in a simulated bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) population.

The coexistence of distinct alternative mating strategies (AMS) is often explained by mechanisms involving trade-offs between reproductive traits and lifetime fitness; yet their relative importance remains poorly understood. Here, we used an established individual-based, spatially explicit model to simulate bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Skagit River (Washington, USA) and investigated the influence of female mating preference, sneaker-specific mortality, and variation in age-at-maturity on AMS persistence using global sensitivity analyses and boosted regression trees. We assumed that two genetically fixed AMS coexisted within the population: sneaker males (characterized by younger age-at-maturity, greater AMS-specific mortality, and lower reproductive fitness) and territorial males. After 300 years, variation in relative sneaker success in the system was explained by sneaker males' reproductive fitness (72%) and, to a lesser extent, the length of their reproductive lifespan (21%) and their proportion in the initial population (8%). However, under a wide range of parameter values, our simulated scenarios predicted the extinction of territorial males or their persistence in small, declining populations. Although these results do not resolve the coexistence of AMS in salmonids, they reinforce the importance of mechanisms reducing sneaker's lifetime reproductive success in favoring AMS coexistence within salmonid populations but also limit the prediction that, without any other selective mechanisms at play, strong female preference for mating with territorial males and differences in reproductive lifespan allow the stable coexistence of distinct AMS.

Evolutionary potential mitigates extinction risk under climate change in the endangered southwestern willow flycatcher.

The complexity of global anthropogenic change makes forecasting species responses and planning effective conservation actions challenging. Additionally, important components of a species' adaptive capacity, such as evolutionary potential, are often not included in quantitative risk assessments due to lack of data. While genomic proxies for evolutionary potential in at-risk species are increasingly available, they have not yet been included in extinction risk assessments at a species-wide scale. In this study, we used an individual-based, spatially explicit, dynamic eco-evolutionary simulation model to evaluate the extinction risk of an endangered desert songbird, the southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus), in response to climate change. Using data from long-term demographic and habitat studies in conjunction with genome-wide ecological genomics research, we parameterized simulations that include 418 sites across the breeding range, genomic data from 225 individuals, and climate change forecasts spanning 3 generalized circulation models and 3 emissions scenarios. We evaluated how evolutionary potential, and the lack of it, impacted population trajectories in response to climate change. We then investigated the compounding impact of drought and warming temperatures on extinction risk through the mechanism of increased nest failure. Finally, we evaluated how rapid action to reverse greenhouse gas emissions would influence population responses and species extinction risk. Our results illustrate the value of incorporating evolutionary, demographic, and dispersal processes in a spatially explicit framework to more comprehensively evaluate the extinction risk of threatened and endangered species and conservation actions to promote their recovery.

Revisiting classical SIR modelling in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: Classical infectious disease models during epidemics have widespread usage, from predicting the probability of new infections to developing vaccination plans for informing policy decisions and public health responses. However, it is important to correctly classify reported data and understand how this impacts estimation of model parameters. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided an abundant amount of data that allow for thorough testing of disease modelling assumptions, as well as how we think about classical infectious disease modelling paradigms. Objective: We aim to assess the appropriateness of model parameter estimates and prediction results in classical infectious disease compartmental modelling frameworks given available data types (infected, active, quarantined, and recovered cases) for situations where just one data type is available to fit the model. Our main focus is on how model prediction results are dependent on data being assigned to the right model compartment. Methods: We first use simulated data to explore parameter reliability and prediction capability with three formulations of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) modelling framework. We then explore two applications with reported data to assess which data and models are sufficient for reliable model parameter estimation and prediction accuracy: a classical influenza outbreak in a boarding school in England and COVID-19 data from the fall of 2020 in Missoula County, Montana, USA. Results: We demonstrated the magnitude of parameter estimation errors and subsequent prediction errors resulting from data misclassification to model compartments with simulated data. We showed that prediction accuracy in each formulation of the classical disease modelling framework was largely determined by correct data classification versus misclassification. Using a classical example of influenza epidemics in an England boarding school, we argue that the Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered (SIQR) model is more appropriate than the commonly employed SIR model given the data collected (number of active cases). Similarly, we show in the COVID-19 disease model example that reported active cases could be used inappropriately in the SIR modelling framework if treated as infected. Conclusions: We demonstrate the role of misclassification of disease data and thus the importance of correctly classifying reported data to the proper compartment using both simulated and real data. For both a classical influenza data set and a COVID-19 case data set, we demonstrate the implications of using the "right" data in the "wrong" model. The importance of correctly classifying reported data will have downstream impacts on predictions of number of infections, as well as minimal vaccination requirements.

Population genomics and geographic dispersal in Chagas disease vectors: Landscape drivers and evidence of possible adaptation to the domestic setting.

Accurate prediction of vectors dispersal, as well as identification of adaptations that allow blood-feeding vectors to thrive in built environments, are a basis for effective disease control. Here we adopted a landscape genomics approach to assay gene flow, possible local adaptation, and drivers of population structure in Rhodnius ecuadoriensis, an important vector of Chagas disease. We used a reduced-representation sequencing technique (2b-RADseq) to obtain 2,552 SNP markers across 272 R. ecuadoriensis samples from 25 collection sites in southern Ecuador. Evidence of high and directional gene flow between seven wild and domestic population pairs across our study site indicates insecticide-based control will be hindered by repeated re-infestation of houses from the forest. Preliminary genome scans across multiple population pairs revealed shared outlier loci potentially consistent with local adaptation to the domestic setting, which we mapped to genes involved with embryogenesis and saliva production. Landscape genomic models showed elevation is a key barrier to R. ecuadoriensis dispersal. Together our results shed early light on the genomic adaptation in triatomine vectors and facilitate vector control by predicting that spatially-targeted, proactive interventions would be more efficacious than current, reactive approaches.

MrIML: Multi-response interpretable machine learning to model genomic landscapes.

We introduce a new R package "MrIML" ("Mister iml"; Multi-response Interpretable Machine Learning). MrIML provides a powerful and interpretable framework that enables users to harness recent advances in machine learning to quantify multilocus genomic relationships, to identify loci of interest for future landscape genetics studies, and to gain new insights into adaptation across environmental gradients. Relationships between genetic variation and environment are often nonlinear and interactive; these characteristics have been challenging to address using traditional landscape genetic approaches. Our package helps capture this complexity and offers functions that fit and interpret a wide range of highly flexible models that are routinely used for single-locus landscape genetics studies but are rarely extended to estimate response functions for multiple loci. To demonstrate the package's broad functionality, we test its ability to recover landscape relationships from simulated genomic data. We also apply the package to two empirical case studies. In the first, we model genetic variation of North American balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera, Salicaceae) populations across environmental gradients. In the second case study, we recover the landscape and host drivers of feline immunodeficiency virus genetic variation in bobcats (Lynx rufus). The ability to model thousands of loci collectively and compare models from linear regression to extreme gradient boosting, within the same analytical framework, has the potential to be transformative. The MrIML framework is also extendable and not limited to modelling genetic variation; for example, it can quantify the environmental drivers of microbiomes and coinfection dynamics.

Decoding influenza outbreaks in a rural region of the USA with archetypal analysis.

We present the first application of archetypal analysis for influenza data from 2010 to 2018 in Montana, USA. Using archetypes, we decompose the data into spatial and temporal components, allowing for a more informed analysis of spatial-temporal dynamic trends during an influenza season. Initially, we reduce the dimension of the set of counties by using a mutual information measure on the influenza time series to create a smaller, maximal mutual information network. Archetypal analysis then describes the relationship between influenza cases across counties and regions in Montana. Finally, we discuss the potential implications this analysis can have for infectious disease modeling, particularly where data is sparse and limited.

Greenspace exposure and COVID-19 mortality in the United States: January-July 2020.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from the novel coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) continues to rise across the United States. Evidence is emerging that environmental factors may contribute to susceptibility to disease and mortality. Greenspace exposure promotes enhanced immunity and may protect against risk of mortality among those with COVID-19. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to determine if high county level greenspace exposure is associated with reduced risk of COVID-19 mortality. METHODS: Greenspace exposure was characterized in 3049 counties across the conterminous United States using Leaf Area Index (LAI) deciles that were derived from satellite imagery via Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer from 2011 to 2015. COVID-19 mortality data were obtained from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. We used a generalized linear mixed model to evaluate the association between county level LAI and COVID-19 mortality rate in analyses adjusted for 2015-2019 county level average total county population, older population, race, overcrowding in home, Medicaid, education, and physical inactivity. RESULTS: A dose-response association was found between greenness and reduced risk of COVID-19 mortality. COVID-19 mortality was negatively associated with LAI deciles 8 [MRR = 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.93)], 9 [MRR = 0.78 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.89)], and 10 [MRR = 0.59 (95% CI: 0.50, 0.69)]. Aside from LAI decile 5, no associations were found between the remaining LAI deciles and COVID-19 mortality. Increasing prevalence of counties with older age residents, low education attainment, Native Americans, Black Americans, and housing overcrowding were significantly associated with increased risk of COVID-19 mortality, whereas Medicaid prevalence was associated with a reduced risk. DISCUSSION: Counties with a higher amount of greenspace may be at a reduced risk of experiencing mortality due to COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 Serial Interval Variation, Montana, USA, March 1-July 31, 2020.

We report mean severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 serial intervals for Montana, USA, from 583 transmission pairs; infectors' symptom onset dates occurred during March 1-July 31, 2020. Our estimate was 5.68 (95% CI 5.27-6.08) days, SD 4.77 (95% CI 4.33-5.19) days. Subperiod estimates varied temporally by nonpharmaceutical intervention type and fluctuating incidence.

The effect of gene flow from unsampled demes in landscape genetic analysis.

An assumption of correlative landscape genetic methods is that genetic differentiation at neutral markers arises solely from the degree to which the intervening landscape between individuals or populations resists gene flow. However, this assumption is violated when gene flow occurs into the sampled population from an unsampled, differentiated deme. This may happen when sampling within only a portion of a population's extent or when closely related species hybridize with the sampled population. In both cases, violation of the modelling assumptions has the potential to reduce landscape genetic model selection accuracy and result in poor inferences. We used individual-based population genetic simulations in complex landscapes within a model selection framework to explore the potential confounding effect of gene flow from unsampled demes. We hypothesized that as gene flow from outside the sampling extent increased, model selection accuracy would decrease due to the formation of a hybrid zone where allele frequencies were perturbed in a way that was not correlated with effective distances between sampled individuals. Surprisingly, we found this expectation was unfounded, because the reduced accuracy due to admixture was counteracted by an increase in allelic diversity as alleles spread from the unsampled deme into the sampled population. These new alleles increased the power to detect landscape genetic relationships and even slightly improving model selection accuracy overall. This is a reassuring result, suggesting that sampling the full extent of a population or related species that may hybridize may be unnecessary, as long as other well-established sampling requirements are met.

The delayed effect of wildfire season particulate matter on subsequent influenza season in a mountain west region of the USA.

Particularly in rural settings, there has been little research regarding the health impacts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) during the wildfire season smoke exposure period on respiratory diseases, such as influenza, and their associated outbreaks months later. We examined the delayed effects of PM2.5 concentrations for the short-lag (1-4 weeks prior) and the long-lag (during the prior wildfire season months) on the following winter influenza season in Montana, a mountainous state in the western United States. We created gridded maps of surface PM2.5 for the state of Montana from 2009 to 2018 using spatial regression models fit with station observations and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical thickness data. We used a seasonal quasi-Poisson model with generalized estimating equations to estimate weekly, county-specific, influenza counts for Montana, associated with delayed PM2.5 concentration periods (short-lag and long-lag effects), adjusted for temperature and seasonal trend. We did not detect an acute, short-lag PM2.5 effect nor short-lag temperature effect on influenza in Montana. Higher daily average PM2.5 concentrations during the wildfire season was positively associated with increased influenza in the following winter influenza season (expected 16% or 22% increase in influenza rate per 1 µg/m3 increase in average daily summer PM2.5 based on two analyses, p = 0.04 or 0.008). This is one of the first observations of a relationship between PM2.5 during wildfire season and influenza months later.

Modelling multilocus selection in an individual-based, spatially-explicit landscape genetics framework.

We implemented multilocus selection in a spatially-explicit, individual-based framework that enables multivariate environmental gradients to drive selection in many loci as a new module for the landscape genetics programs, CDPOP and CDMetaPOP. Our module simulates multilocus selection using a linear additive model, providing a flexible platform to evaluate a wide range of genotype-environment associations. Importantly, the module allows simulation of selection in any number of loci under the influence of any number of environmental variables. We validated the module with individual-based selection simulations under Wright-Fisher assumptions. We then evaluated results for simulations under a simple landscape selection model. Next, we simulated individual-based multilocus selection across a complex selection landscape with three loci linked to three different environmental variables. Finally, we demonstrated how the program can be used to simulate multilocus selection under varying selection strengths across different levels of gene flow in a landscape genetics framework. This new module provides a valuable addition to the study of landscape genetics, allowing for explicit evaluation of the contributions and interactions between gene flow and selection-driven processes across complex, multivariate environmental and landscape conditions.

Simulating impacts of rapid forest loss on population size, connectivity and genetic diversity of Sunda clouded leopards (Neofelis diardi) in Borneo.

Habitat loss is the greatest threat to biodiversity in Borneo, and to anticipate and combat its effects it is important to predict the pattern of loss and its consequences. Borneo is a region of extremely high biodiversity from which forest is being lost faster than in any other. The little-known Sunda clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi) is the top predator in Borneo and is likely to depend critically on habitat connectivity that is currently being rapidly lost to deforestation. We modeled the effects of landscape fragmentation on population size, genetic diversity and population connectivity for the Sunda clouded leopard across the entirety of Borneo. We modelled the impacts of land use change between the years 2000, 2010 and projected forwards to 2020. We found substantial reductions across all metrics between 2000 and 2010: the proportion of landscape connected by dispersal fell by approximately 12.5% and the largest patch size declined by around 15.1%, leading to a predicted 11.4% decline in clouded leopard numbers. We also predict that these trends will accelerate greatly towards 2020, with the percentage of the landscape being connected by dispersal falling by about 57.8%, the largest patch size falling by around 62.8% and the predicted clouded leopard population falling by 62.5% between 2010 and 2020. We predicted that these large declines in clouded leopard population size and connectivity will also substantially reduce the genetic diversity of the remaining clouded leopard population.

Spatial genetic structure in American black bears (Ursus americanus): female philopatry is variable and related to population history.

Previously, American black bears (Ursus americanus) were thought to follow the pattern of female philopatry and male-biased dispersal. However, recent studies have identified deviations from this pattern. Such flexibility in dispersal patterns can allow individuals greater ability to acclimate to changing environments. We explored dispersal and spatial genetic relatedness patterns across ten black bear populations-including long established (historic), with known reproduction >50 years ago, and newly established (recent) populations, with reproduction recorded <50 years ago-in the Interior Highlands and Southern Appalachian Mountains, United States. We used spatially explicit, individual-based genetic simulations to model gene flow under scenarios with varying levels of population density, genetic diversity, and female philopatry. Using measures of genetic distance and spatial autocorrelation, we compared metrics between sexes, between population types (historic and recent), and among simulated scenarios which varied in density, genetic diversity, and sex-biased philopatry. In empirical populations, females in recent populations exhibited stronger patterns of isolation-by-distance (IBD) than females and males in historic populations. In simulated populations, low-density populations had a stronger indication of IBD than medium- to high-density populations; however, this effect varied in empirical populations. Condition-dependent dispersal strategies may permit species to cope with novel conditions and rapidly expand populations. Pattern-process modeling can provide qualitative and quantitative means to explore variable dispersal patterns, and could be employed in other species, particularly to anticipate range shifts in response to changing climate and habitat conditions.

A comparison of regression methods for model selection in individual-based landscape genetic analysis.

Anthropogenic migration barriers fragment many populations and limit the ability of species to respond to climate-induced biome shifts. Conservation actions designed to conserve habitat connectivity and mitigate barriers are needed to unite fragmented populations into larger, more viable metapopulations, and to allow species to track their climate envelope over time. Landscape genetic analysis provides an empirical means to infer landscape factors influencing gene flow and thereby inform such conservation actions. However, there are currently many methods available for model selection in landscape genetics, and considerable uncertainty as to which provide the greatest accuracy in identifying the true landscape model influencing gene flow among competing alternative hypotheses. In this study, we used population genetic simulations to evaluate the performance of seven regression-based model selection methods on a broad array of landscapes that varied by the number and type of variables contributing to resistance, the magnitude and cohesion of resistance, as well as the functional relationship between variables and resistance. We also assessed the effect of transformations designed to linearize the relationship between genetic and landscape distances. We found that linear mixed effects models had the highest accuracy in every way we evaluated model performance; however, other methods also performed well in many circumstances, particularly when landscape resistance was high and the correlation among competing hypotheses was limited. Our results provide guidance for which regression-based model selection methods provide the most accurate inferences in landscape genetic analysis and thereby best inform connectivity conservation actions.