Development of a prediction model for deep vein thrombosis in a retrospective cohort of patients with suspected deep vein thrombosis in primary care.

OBJECTIVE: Early and accurate prediction and diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is essential to allow for immediate treatment and reduce potential complications. However, all potentially strong risk factors have not been included in pretest probability assessments such as the Wells score. In addition, the Wells score might not be suitable for use in primary care because it was developed for secondary care. We hypothesized that the addition of more risk factors for DVT to existing diagnostic approaches could improve the prediction of DVT. METHODS: All consecutive patients suspected of having DVT from 2004 to 2016 in a primary care setting were included in our retrospective study. All the patients had undergone Wells score, D-dimer, and duplex ultrasound assessments. The available recorded data of the patients were used to develop a model to predict DVT. RESULTS: Of 3381 eligible patients, 489 (14.5%) had confirmed DVT. The developed model, which included the D-dimer level, Wells score, gender, anticoagulation use, age, and family history of venous thrombosis, was able to distinguish patients with DVT among those with suspected DVT with a sensitivity of 82% (95% confidence interval, 78%-86%) and specificity of 82% (95% confidence interval, 80%-83%). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed model was able to predict for the presence of DVT among all patients with suspected DVT in a primary care setting with reasonable accuracy. Further validation in prospective studies is required.

Safe Exclusion of Deep Vein Thrombosis by a Rapid Sensitive ELISA D-dimer and Compression Ultrasonography in 1330 Outpatients With Suspected DVT.

Of 1330 outpatients with suspected deep vein thrombosis (DVT), a normal enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) d-dimer (VIDAS) of <500 ng/mL was true negative in 382 of 384 and false negative in compression ultrasonography (CUS) in 2, indicating a sensitivity of 99.52% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.48%, with a specificity of 36% irrespective of clinical score. In 1059 outpatients with no DVT, the CUS was positive for the alternative diagnoses (AD): Bakers cyst, muscle hematoma, or old DVT in 62 (5.8%); superficial vein thrombosis without DVT in 78 (7.4%), and leg edema or varices in 17%. A second CUS in 641 patients was positive in 26 (4.0%), indicating an NPV of 96% after a first negative CUS. The NPV of the combination of a negative first CUS and a ELISA d-dimer test <1000 ng/mL was 99.1% at a specificity of 66.9%. As this strategy is cost effective by reduction in the need to repeat CUS by 67%, we designed a novel algorithm for the safe exclusion and diagnosis of DVT and AD for subsequent evaluation in a large prospective study.

Diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis, and prevention of deep vein thrombosis recurrence and the post-thrombotic syndrome in the primary care medicine setting anno 2014.

The requirement for a safe diagnostic strategy of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) should be based on an overall objective post incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) of less than 1% during 3 mo follow-up. Compression ultrasonography (CUS) of the leg veins has a negative predictive value (NPV) of 97%-98% indicating the need of repeated CUS testing within one week. A negative ELISA VIDAS safely excludes DVT and VTE with a NPV between 99% and 100% at a low clinical score of zero. The combination of low clinical score and a less sensitive D-dimer test (Simplify) is not sensitive enough to exclude DVT and VTE in routine daily practice. From prospective clinical research studies it may be concluded that complete recanalization within 3 mo and no reflux is associated with a low or no risk of PTS obviating the need of MECS 6 mo after DVT. Partial and complete recanalization after 3 to more than 6 mo is usually complicated by reflux due to valve destruction and symptomatic PTS. Reflux seems to be a main determinant for PTS and DVT recurrence, the latter as a main contributing factor in worsening PTS. This hypothesis is supported by the relation between the persistent residual vein thrombosis (RVT = partial recanalization) and the risk of VTE recurrence in prospective studies. Absence of RVT at 3 mo post-DVT and no reflux is predicted to be associated with no recurrence of DVT (1.2%) during follow-up obviating the need of wearing medical elastic stockings and anticoagulation at 6 mo post-DVT. The presence or absence of RVT but with reflux at 3 to 6 mo post-DVT is associated with both symptomatic PTS and an increased risk of VTE recurrence in about one third in the post-DVT period after regular discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment. To test this hypothesis we designed a prospective DVT and postthrombotic syndrome (PTS) Bridging the Gap Study by addressing at least four unanswered questions in the treatment of DVT and PTS. Which DVT patient has a clear indication for long-term compression stocking therapy to prevent PTS after the initial anticoagulant treatment in the acute phase of DVT? Is 3 mo the appropriate point in time to determine candidates at risk to develop DVT recurrence and PTS? Which high risk symptomatic PTS patients need extended anticoagulant treatment?