Real-world clinical burden and economic assessment associated with hyperkalaemia in a large integrated healthcare system: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hyperkalaemia (HK) is a serious and potentially life-threatening condition. Both acute and chronic conditions may alter potassium homeostasis. Our aim is to describe HK incidence, clinical outcomes, and associated resource use within a large, integrated healthcare system. METHODS: Adult patients seen at Intermountain Healthcare facilities with a serum potassium (sK) result between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2018 were retrospectively studied. Descriptive assessment of a population with detected HK, defined by any sK > 5.0 mmol/L and HK frequency and severity to associated resource use and characteristics of HK predictors were made. Multivariable Cox hazard regression was used to evaluate HK to outcomes. RESULTS: Of 1,208,815 patients included, 13% had HK. Compared to no-HK, HK patients were older (60 ± 18 vs 43 ± 18 years, P < 0.001), male (51% vs 41%, P < 0.001), and had greater disease burden (Charlson Comorbidity Index 3.5 ± 2.8 vs 1.7 ± 1.4, P < 0.001). At 3 years, more HK patients experienced major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) (19 vs 3%, P < 0.001), persisting post-adjustment (multivariable hazard ratio = 1.60, P < 0.001). They incurred higher costs for emergency department services ($552 ± 7,574 vs $207 ± 1,930, P < 0.001) and inpatient stays ($10,956 ± 93,026 vs $1,477 ± 21,423, P < 0.001). HyperK Risk Scores for the derivation and validation cohorts were: 44% low-risk, 45% moderate-risk, 11% high-risk. Strongest HK predictors were renal failure, dialysis, aldosterone blockers, diabetes, and smoking. CONCLUSION: Within this large system, HK was associated with a large clinical burden, affecting over 1 in 10 patients; HK was also associated with increased 3-year MACE risk and higher medical costs. Although risk worsened with more severe or persistently recurring HK, even mild or intermittent HK episodes were associated with significantly greater adverse clinical outcomes and medical costs. The HyperK Score predicted patients who may benefit from closer management to reduce HK risk and associated costs. It should be remembered that our assumptions are valid only for detected HK and not HK per se.

High-statin adherence over 5 years of follow-up is associated with improved cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: results from the IMPRES study.

AIMS: Despite proven benefits of LDL-C lowering among those with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), statin adherence remains low. Very little real-world data exist on the effect of long-term statin adherence on cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 7339 patients ≥18 years first diagnosed with ASCVD with a statin prescription within 12 months of diagnosis who had 5 years of continuous Select Health insurance or died during Years 2-5, while a member was studied. The proportion of days covered (PDC) was calculated using pharmacy claims for statin use by year, and patients were stratified into pre-defined categories: fully adherent [PDC ≥ 80% for Years 1-5 or until death, n = 353 (4.8%)], short-term-adherent [PDC ≥ 80% for Years 1-3, n = 330 (4.5%)], early-adherent only [PDC ≥ 80% for Year 1, n = 890 (12.1%)], complex-adherent (PDC ≥ 80% in any of Years 2-5, but not Year 1, n = 1292 [17.6%]), and non-adherent [PDC < 80% for Years 1-5 or until death, n = 3942 (72.1%)]. Patients were followed for major adverse clinical events (MACE = death, myocardial infarction, and stroke). Patients averaged 56.4 ± 9.6 years and 76.5% were male. During Year 1, statin adherence was poor, with PDC < 20% in 4007 (54.6%) patients and PDC ≥80% in 1573 (21.4%) patients, which dropped to 16.9% by Year 5. Increased adherence was associated with significantly fewer MACE (11.6%, 17.9%, 21.9%, 21.1%, and 26.4% for those fully adherent, short-term adherent, early-adherent only, complex-adherent, and non-adherent, respectively, P-trend < 0.0001). After adjustment, fully adherent was associated with a significant decrease in MACE (hazard ratio = 0.51, 0.37-0.71). CONCLUSION: Among ASCVD patients with at least 5 years of continuous pharmacy benefits, long-term adherence to statins was associated with decreased long-term MACE in a linear-fashion.

Behavioral Nudges as Patient Decision Support for Medication Adherence: The ENCOURAGE Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Medication adherence is generally low and challenging to address because patient actions control healthcare delivery outside of medical environments. Behavioral nudging changes clinician behavior, but nudging patient decision-making requires further testing. This trial evaluated whether behavioral nudges can increase statin adherence, measured as the proportion of days covered (PDC). METHODS: In a 12-month parallel-group, unblinded, randomized controlled trial, adult patients in Intermountain Healthcare cardiology clinics were enrolled. Inclusion required an indication for statins and membership in SelectHealth insurance. Subjects were randomized 1:1 to control or nudges. Nudge content, timing, frequency, and delivery route were personalized by CareCentra using machine learning of subject motivations and abilities from psychographic assessment, demographics, social determinants, and the Intermountain Mortality Risk Score. PDC calculation used SelectHealth claims data. RESULTS: Among 182 subjects, age averaged 63.2±8.5 years, 25.8% were female, baseline LDL-C was 82.5±32.7 mg/dL, and 93.4% had coronary disease. Characteristics were balanced between nudge (n = 89) and control arms (n = 93). The statin PDC was greater at 12 months in the nudge group (PDC: 0.742±0.318) compared to controls (PDC: 0.639±0.358, P = 0.042). Adherent subjects (PDC ≥80%) were more concentrated in the nudge group (66.3% vs controls: 50.5%, P = 0.036) while a composite of death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and revascularization was non-significant (nudges: 6.7% vs control: 10.8%, P = 0.44). CONCLUSIONS: Persuasive behavioral nudges driven by artificial intelligence resulted in a clinically important increase in statin adherence in general cardiology patients. This precision patient decision support utilized computerized nudge design and delivery with minimal on-going human input.

Coronary Artery Calcium Versus Pooled Cohort Equations Score for Primary Prevention Guidance: Randomized Feasibility Trial.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine the feasibility of performing an extensive randomized outcomes trial comparing a coronary artery calcium (CAC)- versus a pooled cohort equations (PCE) risk score-based strategy for initiating statin therapy for primary atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) prevention. BACKGROUND: Statin therapy is standard for the primary prevention of ASCVD in subjects at increased risk. National guidelines recommend using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association PCE risk score to guide a statin recommendation. Whether guidance by a CAC score is equivalent or superior is unknown. METHODS: CorCal (Effectiveness of a Proactive Cardiovascular Primary Prevention Strategy, With or Without the Use of Coronary Calcium Screening, in Preventing Future Major Adverse Cardiac Events) was a randomized trial consenting 601 patients without known ASCVD, diabetes, or prior statin therapy recruited from primary care clinics and randomized to CAC- (n = 302) or PCE guidance (n = 299) of statin initiation for primary prevention. Enrolled subjects and their physicians made final treatment decisions. Primary outcomes compared the proportion of statin recommendations received and subject adherence over 1 year between CAC- and PCE-arm subjects. Modeled medical costs, adverse effects, and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) were additional measures of interest. RESULTS: Subjects were well matched, and 540 (89.9%) completed entry testing and received a protocol-based recommendation. A statin was recommended in 101 (35.9%) CAC-arm and 124 (47.9%) PCE-arm subjects (P = 0.005). Compared to PCE-based recommendations, CAC-arm subjects were reclassified from statin to no statin in 36.0% and from no statin to statin in 5.6% of cases, resulting in a total reclassification of 20.6%. Physicians accepted the study-dictated recommendation to start a statin in 88.1% of CAC-arm vs 75.0% of PCE-arm subjects (P = 0.01). Patient-reported adherence to this recommendation at 3 months was 62.2% vs 42.2%, respectively (P = 0.009). At 1 year, statin adherence remained superior, LDL-C levels were lower, estimated costs were similar or reduced in CAC subjects, and few events occurred. CONCLUSIONS: CAC guidance may be a more efficient, personalized, cost-effective, and motivating approach to statin initiation and maintenance in primary prevention. This feasibility phase of CorCal should be regarded as hypothesis-generating with respect to cardiovascular outcomes, which is being addressed in a large, longer-term outcomes trial. (Effectiveness of a Proactive Cardiovascular Primary Prevention Strategy, With or Without the Use of Coronary Calcium Screening, in Preventing Future Major Adverse Cardiac Events [CorCal]; NCT03439267).

Vitamin D supplementation protects against reductions in plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D induced by open-heart surgery: Assess-d trial.

Low vitamin D (serum or plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D)) is a global pandemic and associates with a greater prevalence in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Open-heart surgery is a form of acute stress that decreases circulating 25(OH)D concentrations and exacerbates the preponderance of low vitamin D in a patient population already characterized by low levels. Although supplemental vitamin D increases 25(OH)D, it is unknown if supplemental vitamin D can overcome the decreases in circulating 25(OH)D induced by open-heart surgery. We sought to identify if supplemental vitamin D protects against the acute decrease in plasma 25(OH)D propagated by open-heart surgery during perioperative care. Participants undergoing open-heart surgery were randomly assigned (double-blind) to one of two groups: (a) vitamin D (n = 75; cholecalciferol, 50,000 IU/dose) or (b) placebo (n = 75). Participants received supplements on three separate occasions: orally the evening before surgery and either orally or per nasogastric tube on postoperative days 1 and 2. Plasma 25(OH)D concentrations were measured at baseline (the day before surgery and before the first supplement bolus), after surgery on postoperative days 1, 2, 3, and 4, at hospital discharge (5-8 days after surgery), and at an elective outpatient follow-up visit at 6 months. Supplemental vitamin D abolished the acute decrease in 25(OH)D induced by open-heart surgery during postoperative care. Moreover, plasma 25(OH)D gradually increased from baseline to day 3 and remained significantly increased thereafter but plateaued to discharge with supplemental vitamin D. We conclude that perioperative vitamin D supplementation protects against the immediate decrease in plasma 25(OH)D induced by open-heart surgery. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02460211.

Frequency and clinical impact of hyperkalaemia within a large, modern, real-world heart failure population.

AIMS: This analysis qualitatively describes the impact of hyperkalaemia (HK) and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) use on clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients were included if they were ≥18 years old; had a serum potassium result between 1 January 2003 and 3 December 2018; had ≥2 separate, non-urgent care or emergency department encounters; and had an HF diagnosis. Criteria were met by 52 253 patients; 48 333 had sufficient follow-up for analysis. Patients were stratified by the presence/absence of HK (serum potassium >5.0 mmol/L) (n = 31 619 and n = 20 634, respectively) and by baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤40% or >40%. Compared with patients without HK (no-HK), those with HK had significantly higher rates of baseline cardiovascular risk factors, prior diagnoses, and greater RAASi use in both baseline and follow-up periods. Assessed outcomes included RAASi use, rate of 3 year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and individual component rates. Between baseline and follow-up analyses, the proportion of patients on RAASi decreased by 5% in patients with HK but increased by 20% in no-HK patients. Overall, MACE and death were consistently highest in the presence of HK without RAASi treatment (63% and 62%, respectively) and lowest in no-HK but on RAASi (25% and 21%, respectively). After complete multivariable adjustment, these trends were consistent regardless of baseline LVEF. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, real-world HF population, HK was common and linked to baseline clinical risk factors, declining use of RAASi treatment, and an increase in future MACE, regardless of baseline LVEF. Both HK and reduced RAASi use were independent predictors of future MACE.

Predictors of Statin Intolerance in Patients With a New Diagnosis of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Within a Large Integrated Health Care Institution: The IMPRES Study.

Statins are among the most prescribed medications because of the well-documented benefits of safely lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. However, many patients are unable or unwilling to continue statin therapy because of real or perceived adverse effects. This study sought to increase understanding about which patients are unlikely to tolerate statin therapy. The Intermountain Healthcare's electronic data repository was queried from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2013, to identify all adults who survived their first encounter of coronary artery disease (CAD), cerebral vascular disease, or peripheral artery disease and received statin therapy during follow-up. Statin intolerance (SI) was identified by the documentation of clinician-noted intolerance or allergy or by the use of pitavastatin. Patients were followed up for ≥3 years or until death. Of the 48,997 patients evaluated, 3049 (6.2%) were documented with SI. Of those with SI, 9.8% were prescribed a low-intensity, 73.4% a moderate-intensity, and 16.8% a high-intensity statin dose. After adjustment for covariables, significant predictors of SI were female sex [odds ratio (OR) = 1.47, P < 0.0001], age (65-74 vs. <65: OR = 1.15, P = 0.002; ≥75 vs. <65: OR = 0.90, P = 0.03), hypertension (OR = 1.11, P = 0.01), hyperlipidemia (OR = 1.31, P < 0.0001), smoking (OR = 0.88, P = 0.001), renal failure (OR = 1.20, P = 0.009), heart failure (OR = 1.26, P < 0.0001), sleep apnea (OR = 1.22, P < 0.0001), prior malignancy (OR = 1.18, P = 0.007), depression (OR = 1.13, P = 0.04), and index atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease diagnosis (CAD vs. cerebral vascular disease: OR = 1.71, P < 0.0001; CAD vs. peripheral artery disease: OR = 1.23, P = 0.02). In this study, the strongest identified clinical predictor of future SI was female sex. Many standard cardiovascular risk factors were also associated with SI, suggesting that patients with multiple comorbidities are more likely to be vulnerable.

Absence of Coronary Artery Calcium During Positron Emission Tomography Stress Testing in Patients Without Known Coronary Artery Disease Identifies Individuals With Very Low Risk of Cardiac Events.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial perfusion imaging, including positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT), is often used to assess for high-grade coronary artery disease (CAD) requiring revascularization. The use of coronary artery calcium (CAC) to predict risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in asymptomatic patients is accepted. However, little is known regarding the use of CAC in PET/CT patients without known CAD in identifying patients unlikely to need revascularization. Here, we determined whether the absence of CAC, using low-dose attenuation correction CT obtained during the PET/CT, identifies patients unlikely to undergo coronary revascularization within 90 days of a PET/CT. METHODS: Patients, without a history of CAD and no elevation in troponin, referred for PET/CT at Intermountain Medical Center were studied (n=5528). The presence of CAC was visually assessed using low-dose attenuation correction CT. The association between CAC and 90-day high-grade CAD and revascularization were assessed. Longer-term (up to 4 years) major adverse cardiovascular events, including all-cause death, myocardial infarction, and late revascularization (>90 days), were examined. RESULTS: There were 2510 (45.4%) patients in CAC-present group and 3018 (54.6%) patients in CAC-absent group. The CAC-absent group, compared with the CAC-present group, was less likely to undergo coronary angiography (3.4% versus 10.2%, P<0.0001), have high-grade CAD (0.5% versus 6.5%, P<0.0001), and receive revascularization (0.4% versus 5.8%, [adjusted odds ratio =0.09; 95% CI, 0.05-0.16]; P<0.0001). In patients with an ischemic burden >10%, the CAC-absent group was associated with reduced revascularization (P<0.0001). Longer-term major adverse cardiovascular events were lower in the CAC-absent (2.4%) compared with the CAC-present (6.9%) group (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.34-0.60]; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The absence of CAC on low-dose attenuation correction CT identifies PET/CT patients unlikely to have high-grade CAD or require revascularization within 90 days and unlikely to experience longer-term major adverse cardiovascular events. The prognostic value of CAC, beyond ischemic burden, suggests its potential as a first-step screening tool in intermediate-risk patients to identify those who do not need coronary revascularization.

Free thyroxine within the normal reference range predicts risk of atrial fibrillation.

INTRODUCTION: Hyperthyroidism is a known precipitating factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). However, recent reports have suggested an increased risk of AF with free thyroxine (fT4) levels even within the upper reference (normal) range. We sought to test whether higher fT4 levels within the reference range are associated with an increased risk of AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: All patients in the Intermountain Healthcare electronic medical record database with an fT4 level not on thyroid medication were included. The reference range of fT4 was divided into quartiles (Q), and associations with prevalent and incident AF were assessed by multivariable regression. Similar analyses were performed for thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and total and free T3. A total of 174 914 patients were included and followed for 7.0 ± 4.9 years. Of these, 7.4%, 88.4%, and 4.2% had fT4 levels below, within, and above the reference range. As expected, prevalent AF was greater with elevated fT4. However, gradients also were noted within the reference range, comparing Q4 to Q1, for prevalent AF (adjusted odds ratio 1.4, P < .0001) and incident AF (adjusted hazard ratio 1.16, P < .0001). In contrast, no relationship with AF prevalence and incidence was noted for total and free T3 within their reference ranges, and the pattern for TSH was uninformative. CONCLUSION: Higher fT4 levels within the reference range were associated with an increased prevalence and incidence of AF. These findings in a large dataset prospectively validate earlier reports and may have important implications, including a redefinition of the normal range and fT4 targets for replacement therapy.

Comparison of Three Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores With and Without Coronary Calcium for Predicting Revascularization and Major Adverse Coronary Events in Symptomatic Patients Undergoing Positron Emission Tomography-Stress Testing.

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is the most important cause of morbidity and mortality nationally and internationally. Improving ASCVD risk prediction is a high clinical priority. We sought to determine which of 3 ASCVD risk scores best predicts the need for revascularization and incident major adverse coronary events (MACE) in symptomatic patients at low-to-intermediate primary ASCVD risk referred for regadenoson-stress positron emission tomography (PET). Risk scores included the standard ASCVD pooled cohort equation (PCE), the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA) risk equation, and the coronary artery calcium score (CACS), obtained by PET. All qualifying patients in our institution at primary ASCVD risk referred for PET-stress tests in whom PCE, MESA, and CAC scores could be calculated were studied. CACS categories were: 0, 1 to 10, 11 to 299, 300 to 999, and 1000+. MESA and PCE scores were divided into quartiles. Logistic regression modeling was used to predict clinical/PET-driven early revascularization (within 90 days) and 1-year MACE (death, myocardial infarction, or any-time revascularization). A total of 981 patients (54% men, age 67 ± 10 years) qualified and were studied. Scores including CAC (MESA, CACS) performed better than PCE for predicting overall 1-year MACE (MESA p <0.001, CACS p = 0.012 vs PCE), which was driven by early revascularization. In conclusion, in a large population of patients at primary ASCVD risk referred for PET-stress testing, risk scores including CAC (CACS, MESA), which better predicted early revascularization and 1-year MACE, may be particularly useful in primary coronary risk assessment when considering whom to refer for PET-stress testing.

Risk score-guided multidisciplinary team-based Care for Heart Failure Inpatients is associated with lower 30-day readmission and lower 30-day mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Using augmented intelligence clinical decision tools and a risk score-guided multidisciplinary team-based care process (MTCP), this study evaluated the MTCP for heart failure (HF) patients' 30-day readmission and 30-day mortality across 20 Intermountain Healthcare hospitals. BACKGROUND: HF inpatient care and 30-day post-discharge management require quality improvement to impact patient health, optimize utilization, and avoid readmissions. METHODS: HF inpatients (N = 6182) were studied from January 2013 to November 2016. In February 2014, patients began receiving care via the MTCP based on a phased implementation in which the 8 largest Intermountain hospitals (accounting for 89.8% of HF inpatients) were crossed over sequentially in a stepped manner from control to MTCP over 2.5 years. After implementation, patient risk scores were calculated within 24 hours of admission and delivered electronically to clinicians. High-risk patients received MTCP care (n = 1221), while lower-risk patients received standard HF care (n = 1220). Controls had their readmission and mortality scores calculated retrospectively (high risk: n = 1791; lower risk: n = 1950). RESULTS: High-risk MTCP recipients had 21% lower 30-day readmission compared to high-risk controls (adjusted P = .013, HR = 0.79, CI = 0.66, 0.95) and 52% lower 30-day mortality (adjusted P < .001, HR = 0.48, CI = 0.33, 0.69). Lower-risk patients did not experience increased readmission (adjusted HR = 0.88, P = .19) or mortality (adjusted HR = 0.88, P = .61). Some utilization was higher, such as prescription of home health, for MTCP recipients, with no changes in length of stay or overall costs. CONCLUSIONS: A risk score-guided MTCP was associated with lower 30-day readmission and 30-day mortality in high-risk HF inpatients. Further evaluation of this clinical management approach is required.

Safety and Efficacy of Periprocedural Heparin Plus a Short-Term Infusion of Tirofiban Versus Bivalirudin Monotherapy in Patients Who Underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (from the Intermountain Heart Institute STAIR Observational Registry).

Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, used as a standard intravenous bolus followed by a prolonged infusion for 12 to 18 hours, reduces ischemic complications during percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) but often at a cost of increased bleeding. Today, when dual oral antiplatelet therapy is routine, heparin use plus short-term (bolus alone or with a <6 hours infusion) glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, or bivalirudin monotherapy, have been proposed as potentially superior alternatives. This observational study evaluated the safety and efficacy of heparin plus short-term tirofiban versus bivalirudin monotherapy during PCI. Patients with successful PCI and no cardiogenic shock who were anticoagulated with either of the above regimens were followed for 30-day major bleeding and major adverse cardiovascular events (death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and urgent target vessel revascularization) at 30 days, 1 year, and long term. A total of 727 patients receiving tirofiban (age = 63 ± 13 years, males = 76%, ACS presentation = 75%, radial access = 51%) and 459 patients receiving bivalirudin, (age = 65 ± 13 years, males = 71%, ACS presentation = 78%, radial access = 18%) were included. Thirty-day major bleeding was 0.7% and 4.1% for tirofiban and bivalirudin, respectively (adjusted odds ratio = 0.17 [0.06, 0.46], p = 0.001). During 30-day, 1-year, and long-term (1.7 ± 0.9 years) follow-up, major adverse cardiovascular events risk did not differ significantly between tirofiban and bivalirudin. However, long-term death was significantly lower in those receiving tirofiban (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.58 [0.34, 1.00], p = 0.05). In conclusion, in this observational study, PCI patients receiving heparin plus short-term tirofiban experienced significantly lower 30-day major bleeding, and improved long-term survival, than those receiving bivalirudin monotherapy.

CHA2DS2-VASc scores and Intermountain Mortality Risk Scores for the joint risk stratification of dementia among patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: High CHA2DS2-VASc scores in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients are generally associated with increased risks of stroke and dementia. At lower CHA2DS2-VASc scores, there remains an unquantifiable cranial injury risk, necessitating an improved risk assessment method within these lower-risk groups. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine whether sex-specific Intermountain Mortality Risk Scores (IMRS), a dynamic measures of systemic health that comprises commonly performed blood tests, can stratify dementia risk overall and among CHA2DS2-VASc score strata in AF patients. METHODS: Female (n = 34,083) and male (n = 39,998) AF patients with no history of dementia were studied. CHA2DS2-VASc scores were assessed at the time of AF diagnosis and were stratified into scores of 0-1, 2, and ≥3. Within each CHA2DS2-VASc score stratum, patients were further stratified by IMRS categories of low, moderate, and high. Multivariable Cox hazard regression was used to determine dementia risk. RESULTS: High-risk IMRS patients were generally older and had higher rates of hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, and prior stroke. Higher CHA2DS2-VASc score strata (≥3 vs ≤1: women, hazard ratio [HR] 7.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.94-10.17, P < .001; men: HR 4.75, 95% CI 4.15-5.44, P < .001) and IMRS categories (high vs low: women, HR 3.09, 95% CI 2.71-3.51, P < .001; men, HR 2.70, 95% CI 2.39-3.06, P < .001) were predictive of dementia. When stratified by CHA2DS2-VASc scores, IMRS further identified risk in each stratum. CONCLUSION: Both CHA2DS2-VASc scores and IMRS were independently associated with dementia incidence among AF patients. IMRS further stratified dementia risk among CHA2DS2-VASc score strata, particularly among those with lower CHA2DS2-VASc scores.

Prediction of Long-Term Incidence of Chronic Cardiovascular and Cardiopulmonary Diseases in Primary Care Patients for Population Health Monitoring: The Intermountain Chronic Disease Model (ICHRON).

OBJECTIVE: To apply the practical parsimonious modeling method of the Intermountain Mortality Risk Score in a primary care environment to predict chronic disease (ChrD) onset. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Primary care patients free of ChrD (women: n=98,711; men: n=45,543) were evaluated to develop (70% [n=95,882] of patients) and validate (the other 30% [n=48,372]) the sex-specific Intermountain Chronic Disease Risk Score (ICHRON) if seen initially between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2005. The sex-specific ICHRON was composed of comprehensive metabolic profile and complete blood count components and age. The primary outcome was the first diagnosis of coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, diabetes, renal failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, peripheral vascular disease, or dementia within 3 years of baseline. RESULTS: At 3 years, 9.0% of men (mean age, 44±16 years) and 6.6% of women (mean age, 42±16 years) received a diagnosis of ChrD. In the derivation population, C-statistics were 0.783 (95% CI, 0.774-0.791) for men and 0.774 (95% CI, 0.767-0.781) for women. In the validation population, C-statistics were 0.774 (95% CI, 0.762-0.786) for men and 0.762 (95% CI, 0.752-0.772) for women. Evaluation of 10-year outcomes for ICHRON and analysis of its association with each outcome individually at 3 years revealed similar predictive ability. CONCLUSION: An augmented intelligence clinical decision tool for primary care, ICHRON, is developed using common laboratory parameters, which provides good discrimination of ChrD risk at 3 and 10 years.

Improving CHA2DS2-VASc stratification of non-fatal stroke and mortality risk using the Intermountain Mortality Risk Score among patients with atrial fibrillation.

Background: Oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy guidelines recommend using CHA2DS2-VASc to determine OAC need in atrial fibrillation (AF). A usable tool, CHA2DS2-VASc is challenged by its predictive ability. Applying components of the complete blood count and basic metabolic profile, the Intermountain Mortality Risk Score (IMRS) has been extensively validated. This study evaluated whether use of IMRS with CHA2DS2-VASc in patients with AF improves prediction. Methods: Patients with AF undergoing cardiac catheterisation (N=10 077) were followed for non-fatal stroke and mortality (mean 5.8±4.1 years, maximum 19 years). CHA2DS2-VASc and IMRS were calculated at baseline. IMRS categories were defined based on previously defined criteria. Cox regression was adjusted for demographic, clinical and treatment variables not included in IMRS or CHA2DS2-VASc. Results: In women (n=4122, mean age 71±12 years), the composite of non-fatal stroke/mortality was stratified (all p-trend <0.001) by CHA2DS2-VASc (1: 12.6%, 2: 22.8%, >2: 48.1%) and IMRS (low: 17.8%, moderate: 40.9%, high risk: 64.5%), as it was for men (n=5955, mean age 68±12 years) by CHA2DS2-VASc (<2: 15.7%, 2: 30.3%, >2: 51.8%) and IMRS (low: 19.0%, moderate: 42.0%, high risk: 65.9%). IMRS stratified stroke/mortality (all p-trend <0.001) in each CHA2DS2-VASc category. Conclusions: Using IMRS jointly with CHA2DS2-VASc in patients with AF improved the prediction of stroke and mortality. For example, in patients at the OAC treatment threshold (CHA2DS2 -VASc = 2), IMRS provided ≈4-fold separation between low and high risk. IMRS provides an enhancing marker for risk in patients with AF that reflects the underlying systemic nature of this disease that may be considered in combination with the CHA2DS2-VASc score.

Extreme erythrocyte macrocytic and microcytic percentages are highly predictive of morbidity and mortality.

BACKGROUND: The red cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with health outcomes. Whether non-RDW risk information is contained in RBC sizes is unknown. This study evaluated the association of the percentage of extreme macrocytic RBCs (%Macro, RBC volume > 120 fl) and microcytic RBCs (%Micro, RBC volume < 60 fl) and the RDW-size distribution (RDW-sd) with mortality and morbidity. METHODS: Patients (females, n = 165,770; males, n = 100,210) at Intermountain Healthcare were studied if they had a hematology panel between May 2014 and September 2016. Adjusted sex-specific associations of %Macro/%Micro and RDW-sd with mortality and 33 morbidities were evaluated. RESULTS: Among females with fourth-quartile values of %Macro quartile and %Micro (referred to throughout as 4/4), there was an average of 7.2 morbidities versus 2.9 in the lowest risk (LR1) categories, 1/1, 1/2, 2/1, and 2/2 (P < 0.001). Among males, those in the 4/4 category had 8.0 morbidities, while those in the LR1 had 3.4 (P < 0.001). Cox regressions found %Macro/%Micro (4/4 vs. LR1, females: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.97 [95% CI = 1.53, 2.54]; males: HR = 2.17 [CI = 1.72, 2.73]), RDW-sd (quartile 4 vs. 1, females: HR = 1.33 [CI = 1.04, 1.69]; males: HR = 1.41 [CI = 1.10, 1.80]), and RDW (quartile 4 vs. 1, females: HR = 1.59 [CI = 1.26, 2.00]; males: HR = 1.23 [CI = 0.99, 1.52]) independently predicted mortality. Limitations include that the observational design did not reveal causality and unknown confounders may be unmeasured. CONCLUSIONS: Concomitantly elevated %Macro and %Micro predicted the highest mortality risk and the greatest number of morbidities, revealing predictive ability of RBC volume beyond what is measured clinically. Mechanistic investigations are needed to explain the biological basis of these observations. FUNDING: This study was supported by internal Intermountain Heart Institute funds and in-kind support from Sysmex America Inc.

Implementation of a cardiac PET stress program: comparison of outcomes to the preceding SPECT era.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac positron emission testing (PET) is more accurate than single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) at identifying coronary artery disease (CAD); however, the 2 modalities have not been thoroughly compared in a real-world setting. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 60-day catheterization outcomes and 1-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) after the transition from a SPECT- to a PET-based myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) program. METHODS: MPI patients at Intermountain Medical Center from January 2011-December 2012 (the SPECT era, n = 6,777) and January 2014-December 2015 (the PET era, n = 7,817) were studied. Outcomes studied were 60-day coronary angiography, high-grade obstructive CAD, left main/severe 3-vessel disease, revascularization, and 1-year MACE-revascularization (MACE-revasc; death, myocardial infarction [MI], or revascularization >60 days). RESULTS: Patients were 64 ± 13 years old; 54% were male and 90% were of European descent; and 57% represented a screening population (no prior MI, revascularization, or CAD). During the PET era, compared with the SPECT era, a higher percentage of patients underwent coronary angiography (13.2% vs. 9.7%, P < 0.0001), had high-grade obstructive CAD (10.5% vs. 6.9%, P < 0.0001), had left main or severe 3-vessel disease (3.0% vs. 2.3%, P = 0.012), and had coronary revascularization (56.7% vs. 47.1%, P = 0.0001). Similar catheterization outcomes were seen when restricted to the screening population. There was no difference in 1-year MACE-revasc (PET [5.8%] vs. SPECT [5.3%], P = 0.31). CONCLUSIONS: The PET-based MPI program resulted in improved identification of patients with high-grade obstructive CAD, as well as a larger percentage of revascularization, thus resulting in fewer patients undergoing coronary angiography without revascularization. FUNDING: This observational study was funded using internal departmental funds.

GlycA and hsCRP are independent and additive predictors of future cardiovascular events among patients undergoing angiography: The intermountain heart collaborative study.

BACKGROUND: GlycA is an inflammatory marker that is raised in patients with cardiometabolic diseases and associated with cardiovascular (CV) events. We sought to determine if GlycA adds independent value to hsCRP for CV risk prediction. METHODS: Patients in the Intermountain Heart Collaborative Study who underwent coronary angiography and had plasma GlycA and hsCRP levels were studied (n = 2996). Patients were followed for 7.0 ±â€¯2.8 years. GlycA and hsCRP were moderately correlated (r = 0.46, P < .0001). GlycA and hsCRP concentrations were stratified into high and low categories by their median values. Multivariable cox hazard regression was utilized to determine the associations of GlycA quartiles, as well as high and low categories of GlycA and hsCRP, with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as the composite of death, myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF) hospitalization, and stroke. RESULTS: The highest GlycA quartile was associated with future MACE [HR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.22-1.69; P < .0001]. Patients with high GlycA and high hsCRP had more diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, HF, renal failure and MI, but not coronary artery disease. High GlycA and hsCRP (H/H) versus low GlycA and hsCRP (L/L) was associated with MACE, death and HF hospitalization, but not MI or stroke. Combined MACE rates were 33.5%, 41.3%, 35.7% and 49.1% for L/L, L/H, H/L and H/H categories of GlycA/hsCRP, respectively (P-trend < .0001). The interaction between GlycA and hsCRP was significant for the outcome of death (P = .03). CONCLUSION: In this study, levels of GlycA and hsCRP were independent and additive markers of risk for MACE, death and HF hospitalization.

Temporal changes in statin prescription and intensity at discharge and impact on outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease-Real-world experience within a large integrated health care system: The IMPRES study.

BACKGROUND: Statins are indicated for secondary atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) prevention; however, multiple surveys have found treatment gaps in clinical application. OBJECTIVE: To determine trends over 15 years in the prevalence and impact of a statin prescription and dose intensity at discharge after a first ASCVD event. METHODS: The Intermountain Enterprise Data Warehouse was searched to identify all adults with a first encounter for ASCVD between January 1, 1999 and December 31, 2013, including coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral arterial disease, who survived the index event and were followed for ≥3 years or until death. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were assessed overall and in 5-year increments. RESULTS: A total of 62,070 patients met inclusion criteria. Mean age was 65.9 ± 13.7 years, and most of them were male (64.7%). Increases in any statin (59.3% to 72.6% to 80.8%) and high-intensity prescription (3.1% to 14.2% to 28.1%) occurred over consecutive 5-year intervals and were greatest in coronary artery disease patients. Statin therapy was associated with a reduced risk of 3-year MACE (multivariable hazard ratio = 0.75 [0.72, 0.78], P < .0001), with a significant linear trend across dose intensities. CONCLUSION: In a real-world experience within a large, integrated health care system, significant reductions in MACE were found in association with both any and high-intensity statin prescriptions following an ASCVD event. Temporal trends indicated progressive improvement in guideline-recommended prescriptions. However, treatment gaps remain in receipt of both any statin and, especially, a high-intensity statin prescription, and these represent prime opportunities for further improvement in secondary ASCVD prevention.

Practical laboratory-based clinical decision tools and associations with short-term bleeding and mortality outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The red cell distribution width (RDW) predicts mortality in numerous populations. The Intermountain Risk Scores (IMRS) predict patient outcomes using laboratory measurements including RDW. Whether the RDW or IMRS predicts in-hospital outcomes is unknown. METHODS: The predictive abilities of RDW and two IMRS formulations (the complete blood count [CBC] risk score [CBC-RS] or full IMRS using CBC plus the basic metabolic profile) were studied among percutaneous coronary intervention patients at Intermountain (males: N = 6007, females: N = 2165). Primary endpoints were a composite bleeding outcome and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: IMRS predicted the composite bleeding endpoint (females: χ2 = 47.1, odds ratio [OR] = 1.13 per +1 score, p < 0.001; males: χ2 = 108.7, OR = 1.13 per +1 score, p < 0.001) more strongly than RDW (females: χ2 = 1.6, OR = 1.04 per +1%, p = 0.20; males: χ2 = 11.2, OR = 1.09 per +1%, p < 0.001). For in-hospital mortality, RDW was predictive in females (χ2 = 4.3, OR = 1.13 per +1%, p = 0.037) and males (χ2 = 4.4, OR = 1.11 per +1%, p = 0.037), but IMRS was profoundly more predictive (females: χ2 = 35.5, OR = 1.36 per +1 score, p < 0.001; males: χ2 = 72.9, OR = 1.40 per+1 score, p < 0.001). CBC-RS was more predictive than RDW but not as powerful as IMRS. CONCLUSIONS: The IMRS, the CBC-RS, and RDW predict in-hospital outcomes. Risk score-directed personalization of in-hospital clinical care should be studied.