The interaction of patients' physical status and time to endoscopy on mortality risk in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A national prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The correct time to perform an upper endoscopy is decisive in acutely GI bleeding patients. However, patients' physical status may affect mortality. We speculated that the physical status and procedural time could be the principal factors accountable for death-risk. The primary aim was to verify the interaction between physical status and time to endoscopy on mortality; the secondary aim was to verify the interaction of the physical status and time to endoscopy on the length of stay (LOS). METHODS: Consecutive patients admitted to 50 Italian hospitals were included. Clinical and endoscopic data were recorded. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed and the interaction of adjusted clinical physical status and time to endoscopy on mortality was calculated. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 3.190 patients. The time frames did not interfere with outcomes but influenced LOS. Conversely, the ASA score correlated with mortality, LOS, need for transfusions and rebleeding risk. CONCLUSION: Endoscopy time should be tailored to the patient's physical. In our experience, ASA 1-2-3 patients can be safely submitted to endoscopy to reduce the LOS; on the contrary, keen attention should be paid to ASA4 patients, following the 'not too early-not too late' rule (12-24 h from admission).

Rebleeding in peptic ulcer bleeding - a nationwide cohort study of 19,537 patients.

BACKGROUND: Rebleeding is a frequent complication of peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). The associated prognosis remains rather unclear because previous studies generally also included non-ulcer lesions. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify predictors for rebleeding; clarify the prognostic consequence of rebleeding; and develop a score for predicting rebleeding. METHODS: Nationwide cohort study of consecutive patients presenting to hospital with PUB in Denmark from 2006-2014. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors for rebleeding, evaluate the association between rebleeding and 30-day mortality, and develop a score to predict rebleeding. Patients with persistent bleeding were excluded. RESULTS: Among 19,258 patients (mean age 74 years, mean ASA-score 2.4), 10.8% rebled, and 10.2% died. Strongest predictors for rebleeding were endoscopic high-risk stigmata of bleeding (Odds Ratio (OR): 2.12 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.91-2.36]), bleeding from duodenal ulcers (OR: 1.87 [95% CI: 1.69-2.08]), and presentation with hemodynamic instability (OR: 1.55 [95% CI: 1.38-1.73]). Among patients with all three factors (7.9% of total), 24% rebled, 50% with rebleeding failed endoscopic therapy, and 23% died. Rebleeding was associated with increased mortality (OR: 2.04 [95% CI: 1.78-2.32]). We were unable to develop an accurate score to predict rebleeding. CONCLUSION: Rebleeding occurs in ∼10% of patients with PUB and is overall associated with a two-fold increase in 30-day mortality. Patients with hemodynamic instability, duodenal ulcers, and high-risk endoscopic stigmata are at highest risk of rebleeding. When rebleeding occurs in such patients, consultation with surgery and/or interventional radiology should be obtained prior to repeat endoscopy.

International multicenter study comparing demographics, therapy and outcomes in bleeding from Mallory Weiss tears and peptic ulcers.

Background and study aims Mallory Weiss tears (MWTs) are relatively uncommon causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), and patients are generally considered at low risk of poor outcome, although data are limited. There is uncertainty about use of endoscopic therapy. We aimed to describe and compare an international cohort of patients presenting with UGIB secondary to MWT and peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). Patients and methods From an international dataset of patients undergoing endoscopy for acute UGIB at seven hospitals, we assessed patients with MWT bleeding, including the endoscopic stigmata and endoscopic therapy applied. We compared baseline parameters, rebleeding rate, and 30-day mortality between patients with MWT and PUB. Results A total of 3648 patients presented with UGIB, 125 of whom (3.4 %) had bleeding from a MWT. Those patients were younger (61 vs 69 years, P  < 0.0001) and more likely to be men (66 % vs 53 %, P  = 0.006) compared to the patients PUB. The most common endoscopic stigmata seen in MWTs were oozing blood (26 %) or clean base (26 %). Of the patients with MWT, 53 (42 %) received endoscopic therapy. Forty-eight of them (90 %) had epinephrine injections and 25 (48 %) had through-the-scope clips. The rebleeding rate was lower in MWT patients compared with PUB patients (4.9 % vs 12 %, P  = 0.016), but mortality was similar (5.7 vs 7.0 %, P  = 0.71). Conclusions Although patients presenting with MWT were younger, with a lower rebleeding rate, their mortality was similar to that of patients with PUB. Endoscopic therapy was applied to 42 % MWT patients, with epinephrine injection as the most common modality.

Endoscopic diagnosis and management of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (NVUGIH): European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Guideline - Update 2021.

1: ESGE recommends in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Score (GBS) for pre-endoscopy risk stratification. Patients with GBS ≤ 1 are at very low risk of rebleeding, mortality within 30 days, or needing hospital-based intervention and can be safely managed as outpatients with outpatient endoscopy.Strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence. 2: ESGE recommends that in patients with acute UGIH who are taking low-dose aspirin as monotherapy for secondary cardiovascular prophylaxis, aspirin should not be interrupted. If for any reason it is interrupted, aspirin should be re-started as soon as possible, preferably within 3-5 days.Strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence. 3: ESGE recommends that following hemodynamic resuscitation, early (≤ 24 hours) upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy should be performed. Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 4: ESGE does not recommend urgent (≤ 12 hours) upper GI endoscopy since as compared to early endoscopy, patient outcomes are not improved. Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 5: ESGE recommends for patients with actively bleeding ulcers (FIa, FIb), combination therapy using epinephrine injection plus a second hemostasis modality (contact thermal or mechanical therapy). Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 6: ESGE recommends for patients with an ulcer with a nonbleeding visible vessel (FIIa), contact or noncontact thermal therapy, mechanical therapy, or injection of a sclerosing agent, each as monotherapy or in combination with epinephrine injection. Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 7 : ESGE suggests that in patients with persistent bleeding refractory to standard hemostasis modalities, the use of a topical hemostatic spray/powder or cap-mounted clip should be considered. Weak recommendation, low quality evidence. 8: ESGE recommends that for patients with clinical evidence of recurrent peptic ulcer hemorrhage, use of a cap-mounted clip should be considered. In the case of failure of this second attempt at endoscopic hemostasis, transcatheter angiographic embolization (TAE) should be considered. Surgery is indicated when TAE is not locally available or after failed TAE. Strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence. 9: ESGE recommends high dose proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy for patients who receive endoscopic hemostasis and for patients with FIIb ulcer stigmata (adherent clot) not treated endoscopically. (A): PPI therapy should be administered as an intravenous bolus followed by continuous infusion (e. g., 80 mg then 8 mg/hour) for 72 hours post endoscopy. (B): High dose PPI therapies given as intravenous bolus dosing (twice-daily) or in oral formulation (twice-daily) can be considered as alternative regimens.Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 10: ESGE recommends that in patients who require ongoing anticoagulation therapy following acute NVUGIH (e. g., peptic ulcer hemorrhage), anticoagulation should be resumed as soon as the bleeding has been controlled, preferably within or soon after 7 days of the bleeding event, based on thromboembolic risk. The rapid onset of action of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACS), as compared to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), must be considered in this context.Strong recommendation, low quality evidence.

Validation of a Machine Learning Model That Outperforms Clinical Risk Scoring Systems for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Scoring systems are suboptimal for determining risk in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB); these might be improved by a machine learning model. We used machine learning to develop a model to calculate the risk of hospital-based intervention or death in patients with UGIB and compared its performance with other scoring systems. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from consecutive unselected patients with UGIB from medical centers in 4 countries (the United States, Scotland, England, and Denmark; n = 1958) from March 2014 through March 2015. We used the data to derive and internally validate a gradient-boosting machine learning model to identify patients who met a composite endpoint of hospital-based intervention (transfusion or hemostatic intervention) or death within 30 days. We compared the performance of the machine learning prediction model with validated pre-endoscopic clinical risk scoring systems (the Glasgow-Blatchford score [GBS], admission Rockall score, and AIMS65). We externally validated the machine learning model using data from 2 Asia-Pacific sites (Singapore and New Zealand; n = 399). Performance was measured by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. RESULTS: The machine learning model identified patients who met the composite endpoint with an AUC of 0.91 in the internal validation set; the clinical scoring systems identified patients who met the composite endpoint with AUC values of 0.88 for the GBS (P = .001), 0.73 for Rockall score (P < .001), and 0.78 for AIMS65 score (P < .001). In the external validation cohort, the machine learning model identified patients who met the composite endpoint with an AUC of 0.90, the GBS with an AUC of 0.87 (P = .004), the Rockall score with an AUC of 0.66 (P < .001), and the AIMS65 with an AUC of 0.64 (P < .001). At cutoff scores at which the machine learning model and GBS identified patients who met the composite endpoint with 100% sensitivity, the specificity values were 26% with the machine learning model versus 12% with GBS (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a machine learning model that identifies patients with UGIB who met a composite endpoint of hospital-based intervention or death within 30 days with a greater AUC and higher levels of specificity, at 100% sensitivity, than validated clinical risk scoring systems. This model could increase identification of low-risk patients who can be safely discharged from the emergency department for outpatient management.

The Shock Index is not accurate at predicting outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a major cause of hospital admission worldwide. The recent UK National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) report on severe gastrointestinal bleeding used the Shock Index to assess bleeding severity and found an association between Shock Index and mortality. However, this has never been prospectively validated as a predictor of outcome in UGIB. AIMS: To compare the Shock Index with existing pre-endoscopic UGIB risk scores in predicting outcomes after UGIB METHODS: In an international, prospective study of 3012 consecutive patients with UGIB, we compared the Shock Index with existing scores including the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), admission Rockall score, AIMS65, and the newly described "ABC" score. Pre-determined endpoints were need for major (≥4 units red cells) transfusion, need for endoscopic therapy and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: The Shock Index was inferior to the GBS in predicting need for major transfusion (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.655 vs 0.836, P < 0.001) and need for endotherapy (AUROC 0.606 vs 0.747, P < 0.001). The Shock Index was inferior to all other scores for 30-day mortality: for example, AUROC 0.611 vs 0.863 for ABC score (P < 0.001). Adding the Shock Index to the ABC score did not improve accuracy of the ABC score in predicting mortality (AUROC 0.864 vs 0.863, P = 0.95). CONCLUSION: The Shock Index performed poorly with AUROCs <0.66 and was inferior to existing pre-endoscopy scores at predicting major clinical endpoints after UGIB. We found no clear evidence that the Shock Index is clinically useful at predicting outcomes in UGIB. [Correction added on 20 December 2019, after first online publication: Summary section has been changed for clarification.].

Previous Use of Antithrombotic Agents Reduces Mortality and Length of Hospital Stay in Patients With High-risk Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Anti-thrombotic agents are risk factors for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). However, few studies have evaluated their effects on patient outcomes. We assessed the effects of anti-thrombotic agents on outcomes of patients with high-risk UGIB. METHODS: We performed a prospective study of 619 patients with acute UGIB (defined by hematemesis, coffee-ground vomit or melena) who required intervention and underwent endoscopy at 8 centers in North America, Asia, and Europe, from March 2014 through March 2015. We collected data recorded on use of anti-thrombotic agents, clinical features, and laboratory test results to calculate AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford Score, and full Rockall scores. We also collected and analyzed data on co-morbidities, endoscopic findings, blood transfusion, interventional radiology results, surgeries, length of hospital stay, rebleeding, and mortality. RESULTS: Of the 619 patients who required endoscopic therapy, data on use of anti-thrombotic agents was available for 568; 253 of these patients (44%) used anti-thrombotic agents. Compared to patients not taking anti-thrombotic agents, patients treated with anti-thrombotics were older (P < .001), had a higher mean American Society of Anesthesiologists classification score (P < .0001), had a higher mean Rockall score (P < .0001), a higher mean AIMS65 score (P < .0001), and more frequently bled from ulcers (P < .001). There were no differences between groups in sex, systolic blood pressure, level of hemoglobin at hospital admission, frequency of malignancies, Glasgow-Blatchford Score, need for surgery or interventional radiology, number of rebleeding events, or requirement for transfusion. All-cause mortality was lower in patients who took anti-thrombotic drugs (11 deaths, 4%) than in patients who did not (37 deaths, 12%) (P = .002); this was due to lower bleeding-related mortality in patients taking anti-thrombotic drugs (3 deaths, 1%) than in patients who were not (19 deaths, 6%) (P = .003). Patients taking anti-thrombotic drugs had mean hospital stays of 6.9 days (95% CI, 2-23 days) compared to 7.9 days for non-users of anti-thrombotic agents (95% CI, 2-26 days) (P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Despite being older, with higher American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, AIMS65, and Rockall scores, patients who have UGIB that requires endoscopic therapy and take anti-thrombotic drugs have lower mortality due to GI bleeding and shorter hospital stays, with similar rates of rebleeding, surgery, and transfusions, compared with those not taking anti-thrombotic drugs.

Severity and Outcomes of Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding With Bloody Vs. Coffee-Grounds Hematemesis.

OBJECTIVES: Numerous reviews indicate bloody hematemesis signifies more severe bleeding than coffee-grounds hematemesis. We assessed severity and outcomes related to bleeding symptoms in a prospective study. METHODS: Consecutive patients presenting with hematemesis or melena were categorized as bloody emesis (N=1209), coffee-grounds emesis without bloody emesis (N=701), or melena without hematemesis (N=1069). We assessed bleeding severity (pulse, blood pressure) and predictors of outcome (hemoglobin, risk stratification scores) at presentation, and outcomes of bleeding episodes. The primary outcome was a composite of transfusion, intervention, or mortality. RESULTS: Bloody and coffee-grounds emesis were similar in pulse ≥100 beats/min (35 vs. 37%), systolic blood pressure ≤100 mm Hg (12 vs. 12%), and hemoglobin ≤100 g/l (25 vs. 27%). Risk stratification scores were lower with bloody emesis. The composite end point was 34.7 vs. 38.2% for bloody vs. coffee-grounds emesis; mortality was 6.6 vs. 9.3%. Hemostatic intervention was more common (19.4 vs. 14.4%) with bloody emesis (due to a higher frequency of varices necessitating endoscopic therapy), as was rebleeding (7.8 vs. 4.5%). Outcomes were worse with hematemesis plus melena vs. isolated hematemesis for bloody (composite: 62.4 vs. 25.6%; hemostatic intervention: 36.5 vs. 13.8%) and coffee-grounds emesis (composite: 59.1 vs. 27.1%; hemostatic intervention: 26.4 vs. 8.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Bloody emesis is not associated with more severe bleeding episodes at presentation or higher mortality than coffee-grounds emesis, but is associated with modestly higher rates of hemostatic intervention and rebleeding. Outcomes with hematemesis are worsened with concurrent melena. The presence of bloody emesis plus melena potentially could be considered in decisions regarding timing of endoscopy.

Association between early ERCP and mortality in patients with acute cholangitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute cholangitis (AC) is associated with high mortality of up to 10%. The association between timing of ERCP and mortality in patients with AC remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate whether early ERCP within 24 hours was associated with improved survival. METHODS: All patients who underwent ERCP at Odense University Hospital, Denmark, between March 2009 and September 2016 were identified using a prospective ERCP database. Clinical data were collected from medical records. Patients fulfilling the Tokyo Guidelines 2013 criteria and for whom a detailed review of medical records revealed evidence of AC were included. We investigated the association between ERCP within 24 hours and 30-day mortality using logistic regression analysis with adjustment for confounding factors. RESULTS: A total of 4066 consecutive patients underwent ERCP during the study period, and 166 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Forty-eight patients (29%) underwent ERCP within 24 hours from the time of hospitalization, and 118 patients (71%) underwent later ERCP. Patients undergoing ERCP within 24 hours were younger (medians: 65 vs 73 years; P = .01) and had a higher heart rate (medians: 95 vs 90 beats/minute; P = .02). Overall 30-day mortality was 16% (n = 27). Mortality was 8% (n = 4) among patients undergoing early ERCP and 19% (n = 23) among patients undergoing later ERCP (P = .10). After adjustment for confounding factors, performance of ERCP within 24 hours was associated with lower 30-day mortality (odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.05-0.95; P = .04). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that early ERCP within 24 hours is associated with lower 30-day mortality in patients with AC.

International prospective observational study of upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage: Does weekend admission affect outcome?

INTRODUCTION: Out of hours admissions have higher mortality for many conditions but upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage studies have produced variable outcomes. METHODS: Prospective study of 12 months consecutive admissions of upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage from four international high volume centres. Admission period (weekdays, weeknights or weekends), demographics, haemodynamic parameters, laboratory results, endoscopy findings, further procedures and 30-day mortality were recorded. Five upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage risk scores were calculated. RESULTS: 2118 patients, 60% male, median age 66 years were studied. Compared with patients presenting on weekdays, patients presenting at weekends had no significant differences in comorbidity, pulse, systolic BP, risk scores, frequency of peptic ulcers or varices. Those presenting on weekdays had lower haemoglobin (p = 0.007) and were more likely to have a normal endoscopy (p < 0.01). Time to endoscopy was less for weeknight presentation (p = 0.001). Sixty-seven per cent of those presenting on weekdays, 75% on weeknights and 60% at weekends had endoscopy within 24 h. Transfusion requirements, need for endoscopic therapy or surgery/embolization, rebleeding rates (6.1%) and mortality (7.2%) did not differ with presentation time. CONCLUSION: This multi-centre international study in large centres found no difference in demographics, comorbidity or haemodynamic stability and no increase in mortality for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage out of hours.

Relationship of time to presentation after onset of upper GI bleeding with patient characteristics and outcomes: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We performed a prospective multi-national study of patients presenting to the emergency department with upper GI bleeding (UGIB) and assessed the relationship of time to presentation after onset of UGIB symptoms with patient characteristics and outcomes. METHODS: Consecutive patients presenting with overt UGIB (red-blood emesis, coffee-ground emesis, and/or melena) from March 2014 to March 2015 at 6 hospitals were included. Multiple predefined patient characteristics and outcomes were collected. Rapid presentation was defined as ≤6 hours. RESULTS: Among 2944 patients, 1068 (36%) presented within 6 hours and 576 (20%) beyond 48 hours. Significant independent factors associated with presentation ≤6 hours versus >6 hours on logistic regression included melena (odds ratio [OR], 0.22; 95% CI, 0.18-0.28), hemoglobin ≤80 g/L (OR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.36-0.61), altered mental status (OR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.55-2.73), albumin ≤30 g/L (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.14-1.78), and red-blood emesis (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.06-1.59). Patients presenting ≤6 hours versus >6 hours required transfusion less often (286 [27%] vs 791 [42%]; difference, -15%; 95% CI, -19% to -12%) because of a smaller proportion with low hemoglobin levels, but were similar with regard to hemostatic intervention (189 [18%] vs 371 [20%]), 30-day mortality (80 [7%] vs 121 [6%]), and hospital days (5.0 ± 0.2 vs 5.0 ± 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with melena alone delay their presentation to the hospital. A delayed presentation is associated with a decreased hemoglobin level and increases the likelihood of transfusion. Other outcomes are similar with rapid versus delayed presentation. Time to presentation should not be used as an indicator for poor outcome. Patients with delayed presentation should be managed with the same degree of care as those with rapid presentation.

Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study.

OBJECTIVE:  To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. DESIGN:  International multicentre prospective study. SETTING:  Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania. PARTICIPANTS:  3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:  Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined. RESULTS:  The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay. CONCLUSIONS:  The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737.

Relationship between timing of endoscopy and mortality in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The optimal timing of endoscopy in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) remains unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the association between timing of endoscopy and mortality in PUB. METHODS: In a nationwide cohort study based on a database of consecutive patients admitted to the hospital with PUB in Denmark, patients were stratified according to the presence of hemodynamic instability at presentation and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score. Using descriptive statistics and logistic regression analyses, we identified optimal time frames for endoscopy and analyzed the association between timing of endoscopy and in-hospital mortality after adjusting for confounding factors. RESULTS: In total, 12,601 patients were included. We did not find any universal association between timing of endoscopy and mortality in hemodynamically stable patients with an ASA score of 1 to 2. In hemodynamically stable patients with an ASA score of 3 to 5, endoscopy 12 to 36 hours after admission to the hospital was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (OR, .48; 95% CI, .34-.67) compared with endoscopy outside this time frame. In patients with hemodynamic instability, endoscopy 6 to 24 hours after admission to the hospital was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (OR, .73; 95% CI, .54-.98) compared with endoscopy outside this time frame. CONCLUSIONS: Timing of endoscopy is associated with mortality in patients with PUB and an ASA score of 3 to 5 or hemodynamic instability. Our findings suggest that in these patients, a period of time to optimize resuscitation and manage comorbidities before endoscopy may improve outcome.

Performance of new thresholds of the Glasgow Blatchford score in managing patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) is a common cause of hospital admission. The Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS) is an accurate determinant of patients' risk for hospital-based intervention or death. Patients with a GBS of 0 are at low risk for poor outcome and could be managed as outpatients. Some investigators therefore have proposed extending the definition of low-risk patients by using a higher GBS cut-off value, possibly with an age adjustment. We compared 3 thresholds of the GBS and 2 age-adjusted modifications to identify the optimal cut-off value or modification. METHODS: We performed an observational study of 2305 consecutive patients presenting with UGIH at 4 centers (Scotland, England, Denmark, and New Zealand). The performance of each threshold and modification was evaluated based on sensitivity and specificity analyses, the proportion of low-risk patients identified, and outcomes of patients classified as low risk. RESULTS: There were differences in age (P = .0001), need for intervention (P < .0001), mortality (P < .015), and GBS (P = .0001) among sites. All systems identified low-risk patients with high levels of sensitivity (>97%). The GBS at cut-off values of ≤1 and ≤2, and both modifications, identified low-risk patients with higher levels of specificity (40%-49%) than the GBS with a cut-off value of 0 (22% specificity; P < .001). The GBS at a cut-off value of ≤2 had the highest specificity, but 3% of patients classified as low-risk patients had adverse outcomes. All GBS cut-off values, and score modifications, had low levels of specificity when tested in New Zealand (2.5%-11%). CONCLUSIONS: A GBS cut-off value of ≤1 and both GBS modifications identify almost twice as many low-risk patients with UGIH as a GBS at a cut-off value of 0. Implementing a protocol for outpatient management, based on one of these scores, could reduce hospital admissions by 15% to 20%.