The extreme 2016 wheat yield failure in France.

France suffered, in 2016, the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the largest coherent detailed wheat field experimental dataset with statistical and crop model techniques, climate information, and yield physiology. The 2016 yield was composed of up to 40% fewer grains that were up to 30% lighter than expected across eight research stations in France. The flowering stage was affected by prolonged cloud cover and heavy rainfall when 31% of the loss in grain yield was incurred from reduced solar radiation and 19% from floret damage. Grain filling was also affected as 26% of grain yield loss was caused by soil anoxia, 11% by fungal foliar diseases, and 10% by ear blight. Compounding climate effects caused the extreme yield decline. The likelihood of these compound factors recurring under future climate change is estimated to change with a higher frequency of extremely low wheat yields.

Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops.

Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.

Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France.

In 2016, France, one of the leading wheat-producing and wheat-exporting regions in the world suffered its most extreme yield loss in over half a century. Yet, yield forecasting systems failed to anticipate this event. We show that this unprecedented event is a new type of compound extreme with a conjunction of abnormally warm temperatures in late autumn and abnormally wet conditions in the following spring. A binomial logistic regression accounting for fall and spring conditions is able to capture key yield loss events since 1959. Based on climate projections, we show that the conditions that led to the 2016 wheat yield loss are projected to become more frequent in the future. The increased likelihood of such compound extreme events poses a challenge: farming systems and yield forecasting systems, which often support them, must adapt.

Environmental determinants of the urinary concentrations of herbicides during pregnancy: the PELAGIE mother-child cohort (France).

Herbicides are generally the most extensively used of the pesticides applied to agricultural crops. However, the literature contains little evidence useful in assessing the potential sources of the general population's exposure to herbicides, including by residential proximity to crops. The objective of this study was to take advantage of data from the PELAGIE mother-child cohort to identify the main determinants of the body burden of exposure to the chloroacetanilide and triazine herbicides commonly used on corn crops in Brittany, France, before 2006. Urine samples from a randomly selected subcohort of women in the first trimester of pregnancy (n=579) were assayed for herbicide metabolites. The residential exposure resulting from proximity to corn crops was assessed with satellite-image-based scores combined with meteorological data. Data on diet, drinking tap water (from the public water supply), occupations, and household herbicide use were collected by questionnaires. Herbicides were quantified in 5.3% to 39.7% of urine samples. Alachlor and acetochlor were found most frequently in the urine of women living in rural areas. The presence of dealkylated triazine metabolites in urine samples was positively associated with residential proximity to corn crops (OR=1.38, 95% CI: 1.05-1.80). Urinary metabolites of both atrazine and dealkylated triazine were correlated with tap water consumption (OR=2.94, 1.09-7.90, and OR=1.82, 1.10-3.03, respectively); hydroxylated triazine metabolites were correlated with fish intake (OR=1.48, 1.09-1.99). This study reinforces previous results that suggest that environmental contamination resulting from agricultural activities may contribute to the general population's exposure to herbicides.