ADVANCE system testing: Benefit-risk analysis of a marketed vaccine using multi-criteria decision analysis and individual-level state transition modelling.

BACKGROUND: The Accelerated Development of VAccine beNefit-risk Collaboration in Europe (ADVANCE) is a public-private collaboration aiming to develop and test a system for rapid benefit-risk (B/R) monitoring of vaccines using electronic health record (eHR) databases in Europe. Proof-of-concept studies were designed to assess the proposed processes and system for generating the required evidence to perform B/R assessment and near-real time monitoring of vaccines. We aimed to test B/R methodologies for vaccines, using the comparison of the B/R profiles of whole-cell (wP) and acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine formulations in children as an example. METHODS: We used multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to structure the B/R assessment combined with individual-level state transition modelling to build the B/R effects table. In the state transition model, we simulated the number of events in two hypothetical cohorts of 1 million children followed from first pertussis dose till pre-school-entry booster (or six years of age, whichever occurred first), with one cohort receiving wP, and the other aP. The benefits were reductions in pertussis incidence and complications. The risks were increased incidences of febrile convulsions, fever, hypotonic-hyporesponsive episodes, injection-site reactions and persistent crying. Most model parameters were informed by estimates (coverage, background incidences, relative risks) from eHR databases from Denmark (SSI), Spain (BIFAP and SIDIAP), Italy (Pedianet) and the UK (RCGP-RSC and THIN). Preferences were elicited from clinical and epidemiological experts. RESULTS: Using state transition modelling to build the B/R effects table facilitated the comparison of different vaccine effects (e.g. immediate vaccine risks vs long-term vaccine benefits). Estimates from eHR databases could be used to inform the simulation model. The model results could be easily combined with preference weights to obtain B/R scores. CONCLUSION: Existing B/R methodology, modelling and estimates from eHR databases can be successfully used for B/R assessment of vaccines.

Attributes influencing parental decision-making to receive the Tdap vaccine to reduce the risk of pertussis transmission to their newborn - outcome of a cross-sectional conjoint experiment in Spain and Italy.

Pertussis vaccination of parents and household contacts ('cocooning') to protect newborn infants is an established strategy in many countries, although uptake may be low. Many aspects may influence such decision-making. We conducted a cross-sectional survey (NCT01890447) of households and other close contacts of newborns aged ≤6 months (or of expectant mothers in their last trimester) in Spain and Italy, using an adaptive discrete-choice experiment questionnaire. Aims were to assess the relative importance of attributes influencing vaccine adoption, and to estimate variation in vaccine adoption rates and the impact of cost on vaccination rates. Six hundred and fifteen participants (Spain, n = 313; Italy, n = 302) completed the survey. Of 144 available questionnaire scenarios, the most frequently selected (14% of respondents in both countries) were infant protection by household vaccination at vaccination center, recommendation by family physician and health authorities, with information available on leaflets and websites. The attribute with highest median relative importance was 'reduction in source of infection' in Spain (23.1%) and 'vaccination location' in Italy (18.8%). Differences between other attributes were low in both countries, with media attributes showing low importance. Over 80% of respondents indicated a definite or probable response to vaccine adoption (at no-cost) with estimated probability of adoption of 89-98%; applying vaccine costs (25€ per person) would reduce the probability of uptake by 7-20% in definite/probable respondents. Awareness of these determinants is helpful in informing Health Authorities and healthcare practitioners implementing a cocooning strategy for those populations where maternal immunization is not a preferred option.

Development of adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine and its implications for shingles prevention.

INTRODUCTION: GSK has developed a two-dose adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (Shingrix, RZV) to protect people aged ≥50 years (50+) against herpes zoster (HZ) and its complications. RZV showed >90% efficacy against HZ, sustained over 4 years of follow-up, in all studied age groups. AREAS COVERED: This article reviews the scientific rationale underlying the design of RZV; the clinical evidence demonstrating immunogenicity, safety, and efficacy in persons 50+; and the public health implications and cost-effectiveness. EXPERT COMMENTARY: A decline in varicella zoster virus (VZV) immunity is associated with increased risk of HZ in adults 50+ and immunocompromised individuals. RZV was designed to restore levels of anti-VZV cellular and humoral immunity to prevent VZV reactivation. RZV includes the recombinant gE glycoprotein antigen, and Adjuvant System AS01B which promotes cellular and antibody responses. In two Phase III studies in subjects aged 50+ and 70+ years, RZV efficacy against HZ compared to placebo was >90% and ≥89% against post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN). RZV is expected to dramatically impact HZ morbidity including its complications, and associated health-care costs. In the US population aged 50+ years, vaccination with RZV can be cost-effective compared to no vaccination and cost-saving compared to the currently available live-attenuated HZ vaccine (Zostavax, Merck).

Benefit Versus Risk Assessment of Rotavirus Vaccination in France: A Simulation and Modeling Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Two vaccines against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) in young children, Rotarix and RotaTeq, have been available in Europe since 2006. Vaccination against rotaviruses significantly reduces the burden of RVGE, but it is also associated with a very small increased risk of intussusception. In a benefit-risk analysis, the prevented RVGE burden is weighed against the possible excess of intussusception. PURPOSE: The aim was to compare the estimated benefits and risks of Rotarix vaccination in France. METHODS: We estimated the benefits (vaccine-preventable RVGE hospitalizations and deaths) and risks (vaccine-caused intussusception hospitalizations and deaths) following two doses of Rotarix in a birth cohort of 791,183 followed for 3-5 years in France. We used data from peer-reviewed clinical and epidemiological studies or publications, and government statistics. RESULTS: Within the total number of French children below 5 years of age, we estimate vaccination could prevent a median 11,132 [95% credible interval (CI) 7842-14,408] RVGE hospitalizations and 7.43 (95% CI 3.27-14.68) RVGE deaths. At the same time, vaccination could cause an average of 6.86 (95% CI 2.25-38.37) intussusception hospitalizations and 0.0099 (95% CI 0.0024-0.060) intussusception deaths in the entire French birth cohort of infants below 1 year of age. Therefore, for every intussusception hospitalization and every intussusception death caused by vaccination, 1624 (95% CI 240-5243) RVGE hospitalizations and 743 (95% CI 93-3723) RVGE deaths are prevented, respectively, by vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: The vaccine-prevented RVGE hospitalizations and deaths (benefit) greatly outweigh the excess potentially vaccination-related cases of intussusception (risk), indicating a favorable benefit-risk balance for Rotarix in France.

Dihydroxyphenylglycol as a Biomarker of Norepinephrine Transporter Inhibition by Atomoxetine: Human Model to Assess Central and Peripheral Effects of Dosing.

To assess the primary metabolite of norepinephrine, 3,4-dihydroxyphenylglycol (DHPG), as a sensitive biomarker for norepinephrine transporter (NET) function and the relationship of DHPG measured peripherally and centrally, NET was antagonized with 80 mg/d atomoxetine for 18 days. Twelve healthy subjects were treated with atomoxetine in an open-label, multiple-dose exploratory study. Plasma atomoxetine reached steady state by day 6, and the pharmacokinetic results demonstrated availability of atomoxetine to the central nervous system. The cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)/plasma ratios of atomoxetine based on area under concentration-time curve from 0 to 12 hours postdose (AUC0-12), maximum concentration (Cmax), and predose were 0.3%, 0.2%, and 11%, respectively. Plasma from atomoxetine-treated subjects (ex vivo) significantly inhibited radioligand binding to human NET (P < 0.001) only 1 hour after dosing. Plasma DHPG and DHPG/norepinephrine (ratio) during repeated posture tests were reduced significantly (P < 0.001) on day 5 and stayed significantly reduced up to 1 day after treatment. In CSF, both DHPG and the ratio were significantly reduced (P < 0.001) on day 18. Urine results showed significant decreases for both DHPG and the ratio (P = 0.010 to P < 0.001). Brain-derived neurotrophic factor in CSF was lesser than the limits of detection. The findings suggest that NET blockade can be assessed with DHPG concentration or with the ratio in plasma, CSF, and urine. The data suggest that DHPG is a useful biomarker to proactively assess the pharmacological activity of compounds intended to inhibit NET activity within the brain. The study shows that CSF is a medium for early identification and quantification of biomarkers useful in assessing novel neuroscience targets.

Post-Marketing Benefit-Risk Assessment of Rotavirus Vaccination in Japan: A Simulation and Modelling Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Rotarix™, GSK's live attenuated rotavirus vaccine, was introduced in Japan in 2011. A recent trend in reduction of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) due to this vaccine was described. However, an observed/expected analysis showed a temporal association with intussusception within 7 days post dose 1. OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we compare the benefit and risk of vaccination side-by-side in a benefit-risk analysis. METHODS: The number of vaccine-preventable RVGE-associated hospitalizations and deaths (benefit) and intussusception-associated hospitalizations and deaths (risk) following two doses of Rotarix™ in Japan was compared using simulations. Source data included peer-reviewed clinical and epidemiological publications, Japanese governmental statistics (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications), and market survey data. RESULTS: For a birth cohort of 1 million vaccinated Japanese children followed for 5 years, the benefit-risk analysis suggested that the vaccine would prevent ~17,900 hospitalizations and ~6.3 deaths associated with RVGE. At the same time, vaccination would be associated with about ~50 intussusception hospitalizations and ~0.017 intussusception deaths. Therefore, for every intussusception hospitalization caused by vaccination and for one intussusception-associated death, 350 (95 % CI 69-2510) RVGE-associated hospitalizations and 366 (95 % CI 59-3271) RVGE-associated deaths are prevented, respectively, by vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: The benefit-risk balance for Rotarix™ is favorable in Japan. From a public health perspective, the benefits in terms of prevented RVGE hospitalizations and deaths for the vaccinated population far exceed the estimated risks due to intussusception.

Safety and immunogenicity of three different formulations of an adjuvanted varicella-zoster virus subunit candidate vaccine in older adults: a phase II, randomized, controlled study.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the safety and immunogenicity of different formulations and schedules of a candidate subunit herpes zoster vaccine containing varicella-zoster virus glycoprotein E (gE) with or without the adjuvant system AS01B. METHODS: In this phase II, single-blind, randomized, controlled study, adults aged ≥60years (N=714) received one dose of 100µggE/AS01B, two doses, two months apart, of 25, 50, or 100µggE/AS01B, or two doses of unadjuvanted 100µggE/saline. Frequencies of CD4(+) T cells expressing ≥2 activation markers following induction with gE were measured by intracellular cytokine staining and serum anti-gE antibody concentrations by ELISA. RESULTS: Frequencies of gE-specific CD4(+) T cells were >3-fold higher after two doses of all gE/AS01B formulations than after one dose of 100µggE/AS01B or two doses of 100µggE/saline. Frequencies were comparable after two doses of 25, 50, or 100µggE/AS01B. Serum anti-gE antibody concentrations were comparable after two doses of 50 or 100µggE/AS01B and higher than in the other groups. Immune responses persisted for at least 36 months. Reactogenicities of all gE/AS01B formulations were similar but greater than with gE/saline. CONCLUSIONS: The three formulations of gE/AS01B were immunogenic and well tolerated in adults aged ≥60years. Two vaccinations with gE/AS01B induced higher immune responses than one and the dose of gE impacted humoral but not cellular immune responses (NCT00434577).

Safety and immunogenicity of an AS01-adjuvanted varicella-zoster virus subunit candidate vaccine against herpes zoster in adults >=50 years of age.

BACKGROUND: An adjuvanted varicella-zoster virus glycoprotein E (gE) subunit vaccine candidate for herpes zoster is in development. In this trial we compared the safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of the vaccine antigen combined with different adjuvant doses. METHODS: This was a phase II, observer-blind, randomized, multinational study. Adults ≥50 years old were randomized 4:4:2:1 to be vaccinated at months 0 and 2 with gE combined with a higher (AS01B) or lower (AS01E) dose adjuvant, unadjuvanted gE, or saline. Following each dose, solicited events were recorded for 7 days and unsolicited adverse events for 30 days. Serious adverse events were collected for 1 year. Cell-mediated and humoral immune responses were assessed at baseline and following each dose. RESULTS: No vaccine-related severe adverse events were reported. Solicited adverse events were generally mild to moderate and transient. For all gE-based vaccines, pain was the most common local symptom and fatigue the most common general symptom. Immune responses were significantly enhanced by AS01B and AS01E compared to unadjuvanted gE and were significantly stronger for gE/AS01B than for gE/AS01E. CONCLUSIONS: AS01 improved the immunogenicity of gE while retaining acceptable safety and reactogenicity profiles. The enhancement of gE-specific cellular and humoral responses was adjuvant dose dependent. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00802464.

Sampling of herpes zoster skin lesion types and the impact on viral DNA detection.

This was a multicenter, non-therapeutic study to determine the optimal type of lesion sample for quantitative PCR detection of varicella zoster virus (VZV) DNA in herpes zoster patients. Up to three crusts, three crust swabs, three vesicle swabs, and three papule swabs were collected from 41 adults with clinically diagnosed herpes zoster. 83% of subjects had at least one valid crust swab (detectable VZV or ß-actin DNA), 78% had at least one valid crust, 78% had at least one valid vesicle swab, and 32% had at least one valid papule swab. Of valid samples, 97% of crusts, 94% of vesicle swabs, 90% of crust swabs, and 84% of papule swabs were VZV-DNA-positive (≥10 DNA copies/sample). 37 (90%) subjects had at least one VZV DNA-positive sample. VZV DNA copy numbers were highest for vesicle swabs and crusts. The probability of a false-negative result was 5% for crusts, 6% for vesicle swabs, 14% for papule swabs, and 24% for crust swabs. Overall, vesicle swabs and crusts were the most specific and sensitive samples for detecting VZV.

Improved CD4⁺ T cell responses to Mycobacterium tuberculosis in PPD-negative adults by M72/AS01 as compared to the M72/AS02 and Mtb72F/AS02 tuberculosis candidate vaccine formulations: a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) tuberculosis (TB) vaccine provides incomplete protection, necessitating development of an effective vaccine against TB disease. The Mtb72F/AS02 candidate vaccine was previously shown to be clinically well tolerated and immunogenic in Purified Protein Derivative (PPD)-negative adults. To improve the stability of Mtb72F, a point mutation was introduced into a putative serine protease site to give the final M72 construct. AS01 is an Adjuvant System that can potentially improve both humoral and cellular immune responses compared to the AS02 Adjuvant System or unadjuvanted vaccine. This study evaluated the safety and immunogenicity in Mtb-naïve adults of vaccines containing 40 µg of the M72 antigen with AS02 or AS01 and compared the results with Mtb72F/AS02 vaccine (40 µg dose), M72 in saline (40 µg dose) and AS01 alone. METHODS: In this Phase I/II observer-blind controlled trial, 110 participants were randomized (4:4:1:1:1) to receive M72/AS01, M72/AS02, Mtb72F/AS02, M72/saline or AS01, following a 0, 1-month schedule. Subjects receiving the adjuvanted M72 vaccines were followed up until 3 years post vaccination. Evaluation of the immune response and safety/reactogenicity was performed. RESULTS: For all vaccines, solicited adverse events (AEs) were predominantly mild to moderate and transient. No vaccine-related serious AEs occurred and no subject withdrew due to an AE. Immune responses induced by Mtb72F and M72 antigens combined with AS02 were similar. M72/AS01 and M72/AS02 induced robust polyfunctional M72-specific CD4(+) T cell and antibody responses persisting at 3 years, with the highest CD4(+) T cell responses found with M72/AS01. CONCLUSION: This first clinical study with M72/AS01 and M72/AS02 showed that both vaccines were clinically well tolerated and induced high magnitude and persistent cell-mediated and humoral immune responses. The Mtb72F/AS02 and M72/AS02 vaccines were comparably immunogenic with significantly higher immune responses compared to the M72/saline control. Of the formulations tested, M72/AS01 demonstrated significantly higher vaccine specific Th1 CD4(+) T cell responses supporting its further clinical evaluation.

A phase 1/2 clinical trial evaluating safety and immunogenicity of a varicella zoster glycoprotein e subunit vaccine candidate in young and older adults.

BACKGROUND: An adjuvanted recombinant varicella zoster virus (VZV) subunit vaccine is being developed for the prevention of herpes zoster and its complications. METHODS: In a phase I/II, open-label, randomized, parallel-group study, older adults (50-70 years) received 2 doses 2 months apart of an adjuvanted recombinant glycoprotein E vaccine (HZ/su; n = 45), a live attenuated Oka strain VZV vaccine (OKA; n = 45), or HZ/su and OKA administered concomitantly (n = 45). To evaluate safety prior to administration in older adults, young adults (18-30 years) were vaccinated with 2 doses 2 months apart of HZ/su (n = 10) or OKA (n = 10). Safety and immunogenicity were assessed up to 42 months for older adults immunized with HZ/su and up to 12 months for all others. RESULTS: Few grade 3 events and no severe adverse events were reported. Fatigue, myalgia, headache, and injection site pain were the most common solicited reactions for HZ/su and occurred more frequently than with OKA. CD4(+) T-cell and humoral immune responses were much higher with HZ/su than with OKA and remained elevated until 42 months. Addition of OKA to HZ/su did not increase immunogenicity. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, HZ/su adjuvanted subunit vaccine was well tolerated and more immunogenic than a live attenuated VZV vaccine. Clinical Trial registration. NCT00492648 and NCT00492648.

Applying concepts of generalizability theory on data from experimental pain studies to investigate reliability.

This work demonstrates how full modelling power in statistically mixed models can be used to study generalizability (reliability) coefficients of advanced data from human experimental pain studies utilizing placebo data from drug screening trials. This can be used to help optimizing outcome parameters from existing data sets.

A Bayesian approach for dose-escalation in a Phase I clinical trial incorporating pharmacodynamic endpoints.

Bayesian decision procedures have already been proposed for and implemented in Phase I dose-escalation studies in healthy volunteers. The procedures have been based on pharmacokinetic responses reflecting the concentration of the drug in blood plasma and are conducted to learn about the dose-response relationship while avoiding excessive concentrations. However, in many dose-escalation studies, pharmacodynamic endpoints such as heart rate or blood pressure are observed, and it is these that should be used to control dose-escalation. These endpoints introduce additional complexity into the modeling of the problem relative to pharmacokinetic responses. Firstly, there are responses available following placebo administrations. Secondly, the pharmacodynamic responses are related directly to measurable plasma concentrations, which in turn are related to dose. Motivated by experience of data from a real study conducted in a conventional manner, this paper presents and evaluates a Bayesian procedure devised for the simultaneous monitoring of pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic responses. Account is also taken of the incidence of adverse events. Following logarithmic transformations, a linear model is used to relate dose to the pharmacokinetic endpoint and a quadratic model to relate the latter to the pharmacodynamic endpoint. A logistic model is used to relate the pharmacokinetic endpoint to the risk of an adverse event.