Development and validation of an early mortality risk model for pediatric hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis: a comparison with HScore, PELOD-2, P-MODS, and pSOFA.

There has been no severity evaluation model for pediatric patients with hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) that uses readily available parameters. This study aimed to develop a novel model for predicting the early mortality risk in pediatric patients with HLH using easily obtained parameters whatever etiologic subtype. Patients from one center were divided into training and validation sets for model derivation. The developed model was validated using an independent validation cohort from the second center. The prediction model with nomogram was developed based on logistic regression. The model performance underwent internal and external evaluation and validation using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve with 1000 bootstrap resampling, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Model performance was compared with the most prevalent severity evaluation scores, including the PELOD-2, P-MODS, and pSOFA scores. The prediction model included nine variables: glutamic-pyruvic transaminase, albumin, globulin, myohemoglobin, creatine kinase, serum potassium, procalcitonin, serum ferritin, and interval between onset and diagnosis. The AUC of the model for predicting the 28-day mortality was 0.933 and 0.932 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The AUC values of the HScore, PELOD-2, P-MODS and pSOFA were 0.815, 0.745, 0.659 and 0.788, respectively. The DCA of the 28-day mortality prediction exhibited a greater net benefit than the HScore, PELOD-2, P-MODS and pSOFA. Subgroup analyses demonstrated good model performance across HLH subtypes. The novel mortality prediction model in this study can contribute to the rapid assessment of early mortality risk after diagnosis with readily available parameters.

Respiratory syncytial virus subtype ON1/NA1/BA9 predominates in hospitalized children with lower respiratory tract infections.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is the leading cause of acute respiratory tract disease in children less than 5 years old. The aim of this study was to further elucidate the molecular properties and clinical characteristics of RSV infection. The study sample included 238 patients <5 years old who were hospitalized with clinical symptoms of upper or lower respiratory tract infection (URTI or LRTI) in the Pediatric Department at the First People's Hospital of Chenzhou, South China in 2014. We subjected nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA) or nasal swab (NS) samples from the patients to indirect fluorescence assay screens. RSV G genes were amplified by reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) and sequenced. Of the 238 patients screened, 64 (26.8%) were confirmed to have RSV infections. Of those 64 confirmed RSV infection cases, 39 (60.9%) had subtype BA9, 13 (20.3%) had the recently identified subtype ON1, 11 (17.2%) had subtype NA1, and 1 (1.6%) had subtype GB2. The predominant presentation was LRTI with coughing, sputum production, fever, and wheezing. RSV subtype NA1 and BA9 infections were found mostly in infants, whereas the age distribution of subtype ON1 infections was more uniform across the age bands. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that, compared with the prototype strain A2, all ON1 and most NA1 isolates had lost one potential N-glycosylation site at amino acid 251 and 249 due to T251K and N249Y substitution, respectively. These findings suggest that NA1, BA9, and ON1 are the dominant RSV subtypes causing respiratory tract infections in young children presenting to the hospital in South China. J. Med. Virol. 89:213-221, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.