Structural vulnerability of hospitals, cemeteries, and crematoriums of the city of São Paulo to COVID-19 / Vulnerabilidade estrutural dos hospitais e cemitérios e crematórios da cidade de São Paulo à COVID-19

This is the first report by the COVID19 Observatory - Group: Contagion Networks analyzing mortality data from the city of São Paulo. In this report, we integrated mortality data for the city of São Paulo between 04/02/2020 and 04/28/2020, with information on the flow of victims between hospitals and cemeteries/crematoriums. We included in our analyzes both confirmed and suspected deaths from COVID-19. The main objectives of this report were: (1) to describe the structure of the flow of victims between locations and (2) to suggest changes in the current flow based on geographical distances in order to avoid a potential overload of the mortuary system. We suggest that the city of São Paulo should plan for a potential overload of the mortuary system (that is, the number of burials), based on the presented results. Thus, our results reinforce the need to adopt specific planning for the management of the extraordinary number of victims of this pandemic. Our predictions are based on the structural analysis of the COVID-19 victim flow network, which shows several hotspots with high vulnerability to system overload. These hotspots concentrate with either the greatest number of deaths (hospital) or of burials (cemetery or crematorium), and therefore have high potential to become overwhelmed by receiving many bodies due to the increase in victims of the pandemic. We recommend special attention to be given to localities on the east side of São Paulo, which has both the most vulnerable hospitals in the city, and also houses cemeteries and crematoriums that have a central role in the network and / or are vulnerable. Based on our optimization analysis, we suggest logistical changes in the current flow of bodies from hospitals to cemeteries/crematoriums so as not to overload the funeral system and minimize transportation costs. In this sense, our results are potentially useful for improving the operational planning of the Municipality of São Paulo, ratifying or rectifying actions underway at the municipal level.

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio analisando os dados de óbitos da cidade de São Paulo. Neste relatório, integramos os dados de óbitos da cidade de São Paulo entre os dias 02/04/2020 e 28/04/2020 com informações sobre o fluxo de vítimas entre os hospitais e os cemitérios e crematórios da cidade de São Paulo. Incluímos em nossas análises óbitos confirmados e óbitos suspeitos de COVID-19. Os principais objetivos deste relatório são: (1) descrever a estrutura do fluxo de vítimas entre localidades e (2) sugerir mudanças no fluxo com base em distâncias geográficas de maneira a evitar uma potencial sobrecarga do sistema funerário. Sugere-se à prefeitura da cidade de São Paulo que seja realizado um planejamento para uma potencial sobrecarga do sistema funerário (isto é, número de sepultamentos) da cidade de São Paulo com base nos resultados apresentados. Desta forma, nossos resultados reforçam a necessidade de ser adotado planejamento específico para a gestão dos casos extraordinários visualizados no contexto da pandemia. Esta previsão está baseada na análise estrutural da rede de fluxos de vítimas da COVID-19, que indica a concentração de vários locais com alta vulnerabilidade à sobrecarga do sistema. Tais locais concentram a maior quantidade de óbitos (hospitais) ou a maior concentração de sepultamentos (cemitérios ou crematórios) e tem portanto alto potencial de tornarem-se sobrecarregados por receberem muitos corpos devido ao aumento de vítimas da pandemia. Recomenda-se especial atenção à localidades da zona leste de São Paulo, que apresenta os hospitais mais vulneráveis da cidade e abriga cemitérios e crematórios que possuem papel central na rede e/ou encontram-se vulneráveis. Com base em nossa análise de otimização, sugerimos mudanças logísticas no atual fluxo de corpos de hospitais para cemitérios/crematórios de modo a não sobrecarregar o sistema funerário e minimizar os custos de transporte. Neste sentido, nossos resultados são potencialmente úteis ao aperfeiçoamento do planejamento operacional da Prefeitura Municipal de São Paulo, ratificando ou retificando ações em curso no âmbito municipal.

Vulnerability of micro-regions within Northeast Brazil to the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic / Vulnerabilidade das microrregiões do Nordeste brasileiro à pandemia do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2)

Report from "Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa" for the Northeast Region of Brazil. We combined data on confirmed cases of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) as reported by public authorities by 02/04 and structural analyses of road transport networks within and between the nine States of Northeast Brazil to predict the potential influence of the 187 micro-regions on the geographic propagation of the pandemic.  

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID1920 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa para a região Nordeste do Brasil. Combinamos dados de casos confirmados do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) para o Nordeste, conforme disponível até o dia 02/04, com análises estruturais da rede de rotas rodoviárias intra e interestaduais para estimarmos a vulnerabilidade e potencial influência das microrregiões nordestinas na propagação da doença.

Vulnerability of the micro-regions of the South of Brazil to the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic / Vulnerabilidade das microrregiões da Região Sul do Brasil à pandemia do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2)

This is the first report of the 'Observatório COVID191 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa' for the South region of Brazil. We have combined data of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) for the South available up to 17/04/2020, with structural analyses of road networks, from within and between states, to estimate the vulnerability and potential influence of the South micro-regions to propagate the disease.

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa para a região Sul do Brasil. Combinamos dados de casos confirmados do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) para o Sul, disponíveis até o dia 17/04/2020, com análises estruturais da rede de rotas rodoviárias intra e interestaduais para estimarmos a vulnerabilidade e potencial influência das microrregiões sulinas na propagação da doença.

Coevolution Creates Complex Mosaics across Large Landscapes.

The spatial distribution of populations can influence the evolutionary outcome of species interactions. The variation in direction and strength of selection across local communities creates geographic selection mosaics that, when combined with gene flow and genomic processes such as genome duplication or hybridization, can fuel ongoing coevolution. A fundamental problem to solve is how coevolution proceeds when many populations that vary in their ecological outcomes are connected across large landscapes. Here we use a lattice model to explore this problem. Our results show that the complex interrelationships among the elements of the geographic mosaic of coevolution can lead to the formation of clusters of populations with similar phenotypes that are larger than expected by local selection. Our results indicate that neither the spatial distribution of phenotypes nor the spatial differences in magnitude and direction of selection alone dictate coevolutionary dynamics: the geographic mosaic of coevolution affects formation of phenotypic clusters, which in turn affect the spatial and temporal dynamics of coevolution. Because the formation of large phenotypic clusters depends on gene flow, we predict that current habitat fragmentation will change the outcomes of geographic mosaics, coupling spatial patterns in selection and phenotypes.

Signatures of Microevolutionary Processes in Phylogenetic Patterns.

Phylogenetic trees are representations of evolutionary relationships among species and contain signatures of the processes responsible for the speciation events they display. Inferring processes from tree properties, however, is challenging. To address this problem, we analyzed a spatially-explicit model of speciation where genome size and mating range can be controlled. We simulated parapatric and sympatric (narrow and wide mating range, respectively) radiations and constructed their phylogenetic trees, computing structural properties such as tree balance and speed of diversification. We showed that parapatric and sympatric speciation are well separated by these structural tree properties. Balanced trees with constant rates of diversification only originate in sympatry and genome size affected both the balance and the speed of diversification of the simulated trees. Comparison with empirical data showed that most of the evolutionary radiations considered to have developed in parapatry or sympatry are in good agreement with model predictions. Even though additional forces other than spatial restriction of gene flow, genome size, and genetic incompatibilities, do play a role in the evolution of species formation, the microevolutionary processes modeled here capture signatures of the diversification pattern of evolutionary radiations, regarding the symmetry and speed of diversification of lineages.

Gene flow and metacommunity arrangement affects coevolutionary dynamics at the mutualism-antagonism interface.

Interspecific interactions are affected by community context and, as a consequence, show spatial variation in magnitude and sign. The selective forces imposed by interactions at the mutualism-antagonism interface are a consequence of the traits involved and their matching between species. If mutualistic and antagonistic communities are linked by gene flow, coevolution between a pair of interacting species is influenced by how selection varies in space. Here we investigate the effects of metacommunity arrangement, i.e. patterns of connection between communities and the number of communities, on the coevolutionary dynamics between two species for which the sign and magnitude of the interaction varies across the landscape. We quantify coevolutionary outcome as an index that can be decomposed into the contribution of intraspecific genetic diversity and interspecific interaction. We show that polymorphisms and mismatches are an expected outcome, which is influenced by spatial structure, interaction strength and the degree of gene flow. The index describes how variation is distributed within and between species, and provides information on the directionality of the mismatches and polymorphisms. Finally, we argue that depending on metacommunity arrangement, some communities have disproportionate roles in maintaining genetic diversity, with implications for the coevolution of interacting species in a fragmented landscape.