Using remote sensing to assess peatland resilience by estimating soil surface moisture and drought recovery.

Peatland areas provide a range of ecosystem services, including biodiversity, carbon storage, clean water, and flood mitigation, but many areas of peatland in the UK have been degraded through human land use including drainage. Here, we explore whether remote sensing can be used to monitor peatland resilience to drought. We take resilience to mean the rate at which a system recovers from perturbation; here measured literally as a recovery timescale of a soil surface moisture proxy from drought lowering. Our objectives were (1) to assess the reliability of Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) backscatter as a proxy for water table depth (WTD); (2) to develop a method using SAR to estimate below-ground (hydrological) resilience of peatlands; and (3) to apply the developed method to different sites and consider the links between resilience and land management. Our inferences of WTD from Sentinel-1 SAR data gave results with an average Pearson's correlation of 0.77 when compared to measured WTD values. The 2018 summer drought was used to assess resilience across three different UK peatland areas (Dartmoor, the Peak District, and the Flow Country) by considering the timescale of the soil moisture proxy recovery. Results show clear areas of lower resilience within all three study sites, which often correspond to areas of high drainage and may be particularly vulnerable to increasing drought severity/events under climate change. This method is applicable to monitoring peatland resilience elsewhere over larger scales, and could be used to target restoration work towards the most vulnerable areas.

Warm afterglow from the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event drives the success of deep-adapted brachiopods.

Many aspects of the supposed hyperthermal Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE, Early Jurassic, c. 182 Ma) are well understood but a lack of robust palaeotemperature data severely limits reconstruction of the processes that drove the T-OAE and associated environmental and biotic changes. New oxygen isotope data from calcite shells of the benthic fauna suggest that bottom water temperatures in the western Tethys were elevated by c. 3.5 °C through the entire T-OAE. Modelling supports the idea that widespread marine anoxia was induced by a greenhouse-driven weathering pulse, and is compatible with the OAE duration being extended by limitation of the global silicate weathering flux. In the western Tethys Ocean, the later part of the T-OAE is characterized by abundant occurrences of the brachiopod Soaresirhynchia, which exhibits characteristics of slow-growing, deep sea brachiopods. The unlikely success of Soaresirhynchia in a hyperthermal event is attributed here to low metabolic rate, which put it at an advantage over other species from shallow epicontinental environments with higher metabolic demand.

Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World.

The notion that small changes can have large consequences in the climate or ecosystems has become popular as the concept of tipping points. Typically, tipping points are thought to arise from a loss of stability of an equilibrium when external conditions are slowly varied. However, this appealingly simple view puts us on the wrong foot for understanding a range of abrupt transitions in the climate or ecosystems because complex environmental systems are never in equilibrium. In particular, they are forced by diurnal variations, the seasons, Milankovitch cycles and internal climate oscillations. Here we show how abrupt and sometimes even irreversible change may be evoked by even small shifts in the amplitude or time scale of such environmental oscillations. By using model simulations and reconciling evidence from previous studies we illustrate how these phenomena can be relevant for ecosystems and elements of the climate system including terrestrial ecosystems, Arctic sea ice and monsoons. Although the systems we address are very different and span a broad range of time scales, the phenomena can be understood in a common framework that can help clarify and unify the interpretation of abrupt shifts in the Earth system.

High potential for weathering and climate effects of non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician.

It has been hypothesized that predecessors of today's bryophytes significantly increased global chemical weathering in the Late Ordovician, thus reducing atmospheric CO2 concentration and contributing to climate cooling and an interval of glaciations. Studies that try to quantify the enhancement of weathering by non-vascular vegetation, however, are usually limited to small areas and low numbers of species, which hampers extrapolating to the global scale and to past climatic conditions. Here we present a spatially explicit modelling approach to simulate global weathering by non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician. We estimate a potential global weathering flux of 2.8 (km(3) rock) yr(-1), defined here as volume of primary minerals affected by chemical transformation. This is around three times larger than today's global chemical weathering flux. Moreover, we find that simulated weathering is highly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration. This implies a strong negative feedback between weathering by non-vascular vegetation and Ordovician climate.

Ocean acidification and the Permo-Triassic mass extinction.

Ocean acidification triggered by Siberian Trap volcanism was a possible kill mechanism for the Permo-Triassic Boundary mass extinction, but direct evidence for an acidification event is lacking. We present a high-resolution seawater pH record across this interval, using boron isotope data combined with a quantitative modeling approach. In the latest Permian, increased ocean alkalinity primed the Earth system with a low level of atmospheric CO2 and a high ocean buffering capacity. The first phase of extinction was coincident with a slow injection of carbon into the atmosphere, and ocean pH remained stable. During the second extinction pulse, however, a rapid and large injection of carbon caused an abrupt acidification event that drove the preferential loss of heavily calcified marine biota.

Nitrogen cycle feedbacks as a control on euxinia in the mid-Proterozoic ocean.

Geochemical evidence invokes anoxic deep oceans until the terminal Neoproterozoic ~0.55 Ma, despite oxygenation of Earth's atmosphere nearly 2 Gyr earlier. Marine sediments from the intervening period suggest predominantly ferruginous (anoxic Fe(II)-rich) waters, interspersed with euxinia (anoxic H(2)S-rich conditions) along productive continental margins. Today, sustained biotic H(2)S production requires NO(3)(-) depletion because denitrifiers outcompete sulphate reducers. Thus, euxinia is rare, only occurring concurrently with (steady state) organic carbon availability when N(2)-fixers dominate the production in the photic zone. Here we use a simple box model of a generic Proterozoic coastal upwelling zone to show how these feedbacks caused the mid-Proterozoic ocean to exhibit a spatial/temporal separation between two states: photic zone NO(3)(-) with denitrification in lower anoxic waters, and N(2)-fixation-driven production overlying euxinia. Interchange between these states likely explains the varying H(2)S concentration implied by existing data, which persisted until the Neoproterozoic oxygenation event gave rise to modern marine biogeochemistry.

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness.

We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings.

The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of<350 ppm CO2.

Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO(2) levels exceeded approximately 320 ppm. When CO(2) levels reached approximately 340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef's previous history and resilience. At today's level of approximately 387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae. If CO(2) levels are allowed to reach 450 ppm (due to occur by 2030-2040 at the current rates), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from multiple synergies arising from mass bleaching, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts. Damage to shallow reef communities will become extensive with consequent reduction of biodiversity followed by extinctions. Reefs will cease to be large-scale nursery grounds for fish and will cease to have most of their current value to humanity. There will be knock-on effects to ecosystems associated with reefs, and to other pelagic and benthic ecosystems. Should CO(2) levels reach 600 ppm reefs will be eroding geological structures with populations of surviving biota restricted to refuges. Domino effects will follow, affecting many other marine ecosystems. This is likely to have been the path of great mass extinctions of the past, adding to the case that anthropogenic CO(2) emissions could trigger the Earth's sixth mass extinction.

Mutation of albedo and growth response produces oscillations in a spatial Daisyworld.

We extended a two-dimensional cellular automaton (CA) Daisyworld to include mutation of optimal growth temperature as well as mutation of albedo. Thus, the organisms (daisies) can adapt to prevailing environmental conditions or evolve to alter their environment. We find the resulting system oscillates with a period of hundreds of daisy generations. Weaker and less regular oscillations exist in previous daisyworld models, but they become much stronger and more regular here with mutation in the growth response. Despite the existence of a particular combination of mean albedo and optimum individual growth temperature which maximises growth, we find that this global state is unstable with respect to mutations which lower absolute growth rate, but increase marginal growth rate. The resulting system oscillates with a period that is found to decrease with increasing death rate, and to increase with increasing heat diffusion and heat capacity. We speculate that the origin of this oscillation is a Hopf bifurcation, previously predicted in a zero-dimensional system.

One-dimensional daisyworld: spatial interactions and pattern formation.

The zero-dimensional daisyworld model of Watson and Lovelock (1983) demonstrates that life can unconsciously regulate a global environment. Here that model is extended to one dimension, incorporating a distribution of incoming solar radiation and diffusion of heat consistent with a spherical planet. Global regulatory properties of the original model are retained. The daisy populations are initially restricted to hospitable regions of the surface but exert both global and local feedback to increase this habitable area, eventually colonizing the whole surface. The introduction of heat diffusion destabilizes the coexistence equilibrium of the two daisy types. In response, a striped pattern consisting of blocks of all black or all white daisies emerges. There are two mechanisms behind this pattern formation. Both are connected to the stability of the system and an overview of the mathematics involved is presented. Numerical experiments show that this pattern is globally determined. Perturbations in one region have an impact over the whole surface but the regulatory properties of the system are not compromised by transient perturbations. The relevance of these results to the Earth and the wider climate modelling field is discussed.

Daisyworld is Darwinian: constraints on adaptation are important for planetary self-regulation.

The Daisyworld model demonstrates that self-regulation of the global environment can emerge from competition amongst types of life altering their local environment in different ways. Robertson & Robinson (1998. J. theor. Biol.195, 129-134) presented what they describe as a "Darwinian Daisyworld" in which the ability of organisms to adapt their internal physiology in response to environmental change undermines their ability to regulate their environment. They assume that there are no bounds on the environmental conditions that organisms can adapt to and that equal growth rates can potentially be achieved under any conditions. If adaptation could respond sufficiently rapidly to changes in the environment, this would eliminate any need for the environment to be regulated in the first place, because all possible states of the environment would be equally tolerable to life. However, the thermodynamics, chemistry and structure of living organisms set bounds on the range of environmental conditions that can be adapted to. As these bounds are approached, environmental conditions limit growth rate, and adaptations necessary for survival can also cost energy. Here we take account of such constraints and find that environmental regulation is recovered in the Daisyworld model. Hence, we suggest that constraints are an important part of a self-regulating planetary system.

Gaia and natural selection.

Evidence indicates that the Earth self-regulates at a state that is tolerated by life, but why should the organisms that leave the most descendants be the ones that contribute to regulating their planetary environment? The evolving Gaia theory focuses on the feedback mechanisms, stemming from naturally selected traits of organisms, that could generate such self-regulation.