Cost-effectiveness of outpatient adherence to recommendations for monitoring of patients hospitalized for heart failure.

AIMS: A set of indicators to assess the quality of care for patients hospitalized for heart failure was developed by an expert working group of the Italian Health Ministry. Because a better performance profile measured using these indicators does not necessarily translate to better outcomes, a study to validate these indicators through their relationship with measurable clinical outcomes and healthcare costs supported by the Italian National Health System was carried out. METHODS AND RESULTS: Residents of four Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche, Lazio, and Sicily) who were newly hospitalized for heart failure (irrespective of stage and New York Heart Association class) during 2014-2015 entered in the cohort and followed up until 2019. Adherence to evidence-based recommendations [i.e. renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAS) inhibitors, beta-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), and echocardiograms (ECCs)] experienced during the first year after index discharge was assessed. Composite clinical outcomes (cardiovascular hospital admissions and all-cause mortality) and healthcare costs (hospitalizations, drugs, and outpatient services) were assessed during the follow-up. The restricted mean survival time at 5 years (denoted as the number of months free from clinical outcomes), the hazard of clinical outcomes (according to the Cox model), and average annual healthcare cost (expressed in euros per person-year) were compared between adherent and non-adherent patients. A non-parametric bootstrap method based on 1000 resamples was used to account for uncertainty in cost-effectiveness estimates. A total of 41 406 patients were included in this study (46.3% males, mean age 76.9 ± 9.4 years). Adherence to RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, MRAs, and ECCs were 64%, 57%, 62%, and 20% among the cohort members, respectively. Compared with non-adherent patients, those who adhered to ECCs, RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, and MRAs experienced (i) a delay in the composite outcome of 1.6, 1.9, 1.6, and 0.6 months and reduced risks of 9% (95% confidence interval, 2-14%), 11% (7-14%), 8% (5-11%), and 4% (-1-8%), respectively; and (ii) lower (€262, €92, and €571 per year for RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, and MRAs, respectively) and higher costs (€511 per year for ECC). Adherence to RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, and MRAs showed a delay in the composite outcome and a saving of costs in 98%, 84%, and 93% of the 1000 bootstrap replications, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Strict monitoring of patients with heart failure through regular clinical examinations and drug therapies should be considered the cornerstone of national guidelines and audits.

[Analysis of predictive factors for non-adherence to organized screening for colorectal and breast cancers in the pre-pandemic period (2018-2019) in Lombardy Region (Northern Italy)]. / Analisi dei fattori predittivi della mancata adesione allo screening organizzato per i tumori del colon retto e della mammella nel periodo pre-pandemico (2018-2019) in Lombardia.

BACKGROUND: according to the International Agency for Cancer Research on Cancer, in 2022, breast cancer is the most common cancer in the Italian population, followed by colorectal cancer. Oncological screenings represent an effective secondary prevention strategy to counteract colorectal and breast cancers, significantly reducing mortality. In Lombardy Region (Northern Italy), screening programmes have been active since 2007, but adherence, especially in specific population subgroups, remains lower than expected. OBJECTIVES: to analyse potential predictors of non-adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screening in the Lombardy Region during the pre-pandemic period of 2018-2019. DESIGN: a retrospective cohort study aimed at investigating the role of sociodemographic variables, health status, and access to the healthcare system on non-adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screening. Statistical analyses were conducted separately by each Agency for Health Protection (ATS). The results of the models were synthesized across the Lombardy region through random-effects meta-analysis. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: residents within the territory of each ATS in Lombardy as of 01.01.2018 and aged between 49 and 69 years at the beginning of the follow-up. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: adherence to colorectal and breast cancer screenings. RESULTS: during the study period, across the Lombardy Region, 2,820,138 individuals were eligible to participate in colorectal cancer screening, and 1,357,344 women were eligible to participate in breast cancer screening, with an invitation coverage of 87% and 86%, respectively.For breast cancer screening, older age, cardiopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), autoimmune diseases, and presence of a rare disease are associated with a reduced risk of non-adherence. Conversely, foreign citizenship, oncological diagnosis, transplant, chronic kidney disease/dialysis, diabetes, heart failure, arterial or cerebral vasculopathy, and presence of a neurological diagnosis are associated with significant excess risks of non-participation. For colorectal cancer screening, factors favouring adherence include female gender, older age, cardiopathy, COPD, autoimmune diseases, and having access/utilization of primary care. Non-adherence is associated with foreign citizenship, transplant, chronic kidney disease/dialysis, diabetes, heart failure, arterial or cerebral vasculopathy, IBD, neurological diseases, residence in assisted living facilities, use of integrated home care, and presence of disability. CONCLUSIONS: this is the first study conducted in the Lombardy Region which explores the theme of equity of access to organized screenings. This analysis highlights how sociodemographic determinants, chronic conditions, and access to the healthcare and social healthcare system constitute significant risk factors for non-adherence to screening programmes. Based on the results of this analysis, communication and/or organizational change interventions will be developed to counteract inequalities in access to effective prevention procedures.

Switching patterns of biological drugs in patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis: insight from the VALORE database network.

BACKGROUND: Switch patterns among different biologics and from originators to biosimilars (and vice versa) can be complex in patients with psoriasis (PsO) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe switching patterns of biological drugs in PsO/PsA patients and to explore predictors of multiple switches and switch-back. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A large-scale retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Italian VALORE database. Bio-naïve users treated for PsO/PsA during 2010-2022 were included. Time to switch/swap and predictors of multiple switches and switch-back were analyzed. RESULTS: Thirty-thousand seven hundred bio-naïve users were included. At 3 and 5 years of follow-up, patients with at least one switch/swap were 37.1% and 47.8%, respectively. The median time to first switch/swap was significantly shorter (p< 0.001) for TNF-α inhibitors (2,068 days) than anti-IL (2,780 days). At 1 year of follow-up patients starting with IL-23 switched/swapped biological therapy less frequently than those with anti-IL-12/23 and anti-IL-17 (4.9% vs. 8.7% and 9.4%, respectively). Patients starting with anti-IL-12/23 reported a significantly lower risk of multiple switches and switch-back (0.74, 95% CI, 0.67-0.83; 0.58, 95% CI, 0.44-0.77, respectively) than those with TNF-α inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with PsO/PsA starting with TNF-α inhibitors switch/swap more rapidly and frequently than those with anti-IL, which are also associated with a reduced risk of multiple switches during follow-up.

A NLP-based semi-automatic identification system for delays in follow-up examinations: an Italian case study on clinical referrals.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to propose a semi-automatic method for monitoring the waiting times of follow-up examinations within the National Health System (NHS) in Italy, which is currently not possible to due the absence of the necessary structured information in the official databases. METHODS: A Natural Language Processing (NLP) based pipeline has been developed to extract the waiting time information from the text of referrals for follow-up examinations in the Lombardy Region. A manually annotated dataset of 10 000 referrals has been used to develop the pipeline and another manually annotated dataset of 10 000 referrals has been used to test its performance. Subsequently, the pipeline has been used to analyze all 12 million referrals prescribed in 2021 and performed by May 2022 in the Lombardy Region. RESULTS: The NLP-based pipeline exhibited high precision (0.999) and recall (0.973) in identifying waiting time information from referrals' texts, with high accuracy in normalization (0.948-0.998). The overall reporting of timing indications in referrals' texts for follow-up examinations was low (2%), showing notable variations across medical disciplines and types of prescribing physicians. Among the referrals reporting waiting times, 16% experienced delays (average delay = 19 days, standard deviation = 34 days), with significant differences observed across medical disciplines and geographical areas. CONCLUSIONS: The use of NLP proved to be a valuable tool for assessing waiting times in follow-up examinations, which are particularly critical for the NHS due to the significant impact of chronic diseases, where follow-up exams are pivotal. Health authorities can exploit this tool to monitor the quality of NHS services and optimize resource allocation.

Comparing clinical trial population representativeness to real-world users of 17 biologics approved for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: An external validity analysis of 66,639 biologic users from the Italian VALORE project.

To date, no population-based studies have specifically explored the external validity of pivotal randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of biologics simultaneously for a broad spectrum of immuno-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs). The aims of this study were, firstly, to compare the patients' characteristics and median treatment duration of biologics approved for IMIDs between RCTs' and real-world setting (RW); secondly, to assess the extent of biologic users treated for IMIDs in the real-world setting that would not have been eligible for inclusion into pivotal RCT for each indication of use. Using the Italian VALORE distributed database (66,639 incident biologic users), adult patients with IMIDs treated with biologics in the Italian real-world setting were substantially older (mean age ± SD: 50 ± 15 years) compared to those enrolled in pivotal RCTs (45 ± 15 years). In the real-world setting, certolizumab pegol was more commonly used by adult women with psoriasis/ankylosing spondylitis (F/M ratio: 1.8-1.9) compared to RCTs (F/M ratio: 0.5-0.6). The median treatment duration (weeks) of incident biologic users in RW was significantly higher than the duration of pivotal RCTs in almost all indications for use and most biologics (4-100 vs. 6-167). Furthermore, almost half (46.4%) of biologic users from RW settings would have been ineligible for inclusion in the respective indication-specific pivotal RCTs. The main reasons were: advanced age, recent history of cancer and presence of other concomitant IMIDs. These findings suggest that post-marketing surveillance of biologics should be prioritized for those patients.

Immunosuppression with Generics in Liver and Kidney Transplantation: A Real-World Evidence Study.

Purpose: This study evaluates the use, benefit-risk profile, and economic impact of generic immunosuppressants (tacrolimus-TAC, cyclosporine-CsA, and mycophenolate-MYC) in kidney and liver transplant recipients compared to brand-name drugs. Patients and Methods: A retrospective multicentre observational study, involving four Italian regions, was conducted based on the national transplant Information system and regional healthcare claims data. The analysis focused on incident patients who received kidney and liver transplants between 2013 and 2019 and evaluated the use of generic of CsA, TAC, and MYC during the 30-day period following discharge. For each type of transplant and immunosuppressive agent, the benefit-risk profile of generic vs branded drugs in a two-year window was estimated by multivariate Cox models (HR; 95% CI). Furthermore, the potential cost savings per person associated with one year of treatment using generics were calculated. Results: The utilization of generic drugs showed a significant increase; over the study years, the proportion of users among kidney recipients ranged from 14.2% to 40.5% for TAC, from 36.9% to 56.7% for MYC, and from 18.2% to 94.7% for CsA. A great variability in generic uptake for region was found. A comparable risk-benefit profile between generic and branded formulations was shown for all immunosuppressors considered. Choosing generic immunosuppressants during maintenance could result in yearly savings of around 2000 euros per person for each therapy ingredient. Conclusion: The study shows an increasing proportion of patients using generic immunosuppressive drugs over time suggesting a growing acceptance of generics within the transplant community and reveals comparable risk-benefit profiles between the generic and branded formulations of TAC, CsA, and MYC. A significant variability in the use of generics immunosuppressive agents was found both at the regional level and among transplant centers and future research should delve into regional prescribing variations.

Effectiveness and safety of immunosuppressive regimens used as maintenance therapy in kidney transplantation: The CESIT study.

Maintenance immunosuppressive therapy used in kidney transplantation typically involves calcineurin inhibitors, such as tacrolimus or cyclosporine, in combination with mycophenolate or mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTORi) with or without corticosteroids. An Italian retrospective multicentre observational study was conducted to investigate the risk-benefit profile of different immunosuppressive regimens. We identified all subjects who underwent kidney transplant between 2009 and 2019, using healthcare claims data. Patients on cyclosporine and tacrolimus-based therapies were matched 1:1 based on propensity score, and effectiveness and safety outcomes were compared using Cox models (HR; 95%CI). Analyses were also conducted comparing mTORi versus mycophenolate among tacrolimus-treated patients. Patients treated with cyclosporine had a higher risk of rejection or graft loss (HR:1.69; 95%CI:1.16-2.46) and a higher incidence of severe infections (1.25;1.00-1.55), but a lower risk of diabetes (0.66;0.47-0.91) compared to those treated with tacrolimus. Among tacrolimus users, mTORi showed non-inferiority to MMF in terms of mortality (1.01;0.68-1.62), reject/graft loss (0.61;0.36-1.04) and severe infections (0.76;0.56-1.03). In a real-life setting, tacrolimus-based immunosuppressive therapy appeared to be superior to cyclosporine in reducing rejection and severe infections, albeit with an associated increased risk of diabetes. The combination of tacrolimus and mTORi may represent a valid alternative to the combination with mycophenolate, although further studies are needed to confirm this finding.

Post-marketing active surveillance of Guillain Barré Syndrome following COVID-19 vaccination in persons aged ≥12 years in Italy: A multi-database self-controlled case series study.

BACKGROUND: Recently published studies have reported association of COVID-19 vaccine ChAdOx1-S (Vaxzevria) with Guillain Barré Syndrome (GBS). Less is known about the safety of other COVID-19 vaccines with respect to GBS outcome. This study investigated the association of COVID-19 vaccines with GBS in more than 15 million persons aged ≥12 years in Italy. METHODS: Study population was all individuals aged ≥12 years who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccines, admitted to emergency care/hospital for GBS from 27 December 2020-30 September 2021 in Italy. Identification of GBS cases and receipt of at least one dose of mRNA-1273 (Elasomeran), BNT162b2 (Tozinameran), ChAdOx1-S (Vaxzevria) and Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen) through record linkage between regional health care and vaccination registries. Relative Incidence (RI) was estimated Self-controlled case series method adapted to event-dependent exposure using in the 42-day exposure risk period after each dose compared with other observation periods. RESULTS: Increased risk of GBS was found after first (RI = 6.83; 95% CI 2.14-21.85) and second dose (RI = 7.41; 2.35-23.38) of mRNA-1273 and first dose of ChAdOx1-S (RI = 6.52; 2.88-14.77). Analysis by age found an increased risk among those aged≥60 years after first (RI = 8.03; 2.08-31.03) and second dose (RI = 7.71; 2.38-24.97) of mRNA-1273. The first dose of ChAdOx1-S was associated with GBS in those aged 40-59 (RI = 4.50; 1.37-14.79) and in those aged ≥ 60 years (RI = 6.84; 2.56-18.28). CONCLUSIONS: mRNA-1273 and ChAdOx1-S vaccines were associated with an increased risk of GBS however this risk resulted in a small number of excess cases. Limitations were loss of GBS outpatient cases and imprecision of the estimates in the subgroup analysis due to a low number of events.

Access to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in immigrants in Italy, by geographical area of origin.

OBJECTIVE: Immigrants are commonly considered disadvantaged and at high risk of not receiving appropriate care, including vaccination. This study aimed to evaluate the access to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in immigrants, by geographical area of origin, compared with Italian citizens. We also evaluated sex differences in vaccine's coverage by geographical area of origin. METHODS: We performed a retrospective observational study in four Italian regions, including all resident subjects aged 5-69 years, and undergoing first dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in the period 28th December 2020- 3rd April 2022. We estimated cumulative coverage percentages, by age class and geographical area. To compare first-dose vaccine coverage by geographical area of origin, we estimated, through a Poisson analysis, Vaccine Coverage Ratios (VCR) with 95 % confidence intervals (95 %CI), adjusting for age and sex. RESULTS: We included 16,294,785 Italian citizens and 2,534,351 immigrants aged 5-69 years and resident in the four regions considered. Regarding the geographical area of origin, 40.7 % of immigrants came from Eastern Europe, 13.5 % from North Africa and 13.1 % from Western Asia. A great variability in the first dose vaccine coverage emerged. We documented substantial heterogeneity in the first-dose vaccine coverage within immigrant's population, expressed with Italy as a reference, ranging from 0,768 (95 %CI: 0,766-0,769) in Eastern Europe countries to 1,013 (95 %CI: 1,009 - 1,018) in Eastern Asia. The chance of being vaccinated was found higher in males compared with females for African countries (VCR 1.07, 95 %CI 1.06-1.08) and Western Asian countries (VCR 1.08, 95 %CI 1.07-1.09). CONCLUSION: We observed substantial heterogeneity in first-dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccination coverage in immigrants, suggesting a different propensity to vaccines according to the geographical area of origin. These data can help define appropriate and tailored strategies in order to improve vaccine coverage in some specific immigrant groups at the local health district level.

Breastfeeding and presence of the companion of woman's choice during COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: regional population-based routine data and best practices at birth

OBJECTIVES: to describe the monthly trend of breastfeeding during hospitalization and the presence of companion of woman's choice during labour and birth, and the key regional responders' perspective of homogeneity/heterogeneity of the presence of the support person, before, during (February-May 2020), and after the first COVID-19 pandemic wave in a few Italian Regions. DESIGN: two-phase study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: data from the italian birth certificate of six Italian Regions between 01.01.2019 and 31.03.2021 were analysed. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with the key regional respondents. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the frequency distributions of breastfeeding and the presence of companion of woman's choice were calculated as a whole and for each Region. RESULTS: the infant feeding practices experienced smaller changes during COVID-19 pandemic than the presence of the companion of woman's choice during labour and birth, from January 2019 to March 2021. The highest value of exclusive breastfeeding was recorded in September 2020 (72.1%; 95%CI 71.3-72.8) in all Regions, while the lowest was recorded in March 2021 (62.5%; 95%CI 61.5-63.4). The presence of companion of woman's choice during labour and birth decreased during the pandemic and did not return to pre-pandemic levels. The highest value of presence of father during birth was recorded in March 2019 (59.0%; 95%CI 58.2-59.8), while the lowest in April 2020 (50.0%; 95%CI 49.1-50.8). The main emerging themes were: the existence of national, regional and local indications; the facilitators (e.g., Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative implementation, strong motivation of the staff) and the critical points (e.g., inadequate analysis of the clinical-epidemiological context, inhomogeneous indications) of management of the support person presence. CONCLUSIONS: the emergency has changed the provision of health services that not always guaranteed the application of best practices. It would be desirable to work for assessing the appropriateness of the birth certificate data to collect more accurate information and to provide clinical recommendations.

Impact of first and second/third wave of COVID-19 pandemic on post-acute cardiovascular outcomes in Lombardy.

Background: COVID-19 has been associated with a higher risk of post-acute complications. Our aim was to analyze and compare post-acute cardiovascular complications of COVID-19 survivors of the first and second/third pandemic waves in Lombardy, in both hospitalized and non-hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Methods and results: We included adults aged ≥40 years infected during the first and second/third waves of COVID-19 pandemic. The follow-up initiated 30 days after COVID-19 diagnosis and continued up to 9 months. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the post-acute cardiovascular outcomes were calculated against an inverse probability treatment weighted control group. Subgroup analysis were performed by age classes, sex, previous cardiovascular disease and stratified by COVID-19 hospitalization status to explore the impact of COVID-19 severity on outcomes. Compared to the control group, COVID-19 patients had an increased risk of hospitalization for any cardiovascular complications (HR 1st wave 1.53 95% CI: 1.38-1.69; HR 2nd/3rd wave 1.25 95% CI: 1.19-1.31) and for individual cardiovascular outcomes, although HRs were higher in COVID-19 group from the 1st pandemic wave. The results were confirmed in the subgroup analyses. Of note, the risk for any cardiovascular disease was also evident even among individuals who were not hospitalized during the acute phase of the infection. Conclusion: Our results provide evidence that COVID-19 is a risk factor for post-acute cardiovascular complications among different pandemic waves regardless of COVID-19 severity, age, sex and a history of cardiovascular diseases. Care strategies of people with COVID-19 should include cardiac monitoring.

Determinants of immunosuppressive therapy in renal transplant recipients: an Italian observational study (the CESIT project).

BACKGROUND: Very scanty evidence is available on factors influencing the choice of immunosuppressive drug therapy after kidney transplantation. METHODS: An Italian multiregional real-world study was conducted integrating national transplant information system and claims data. All patients undergoing kidney transplantation for the first time during 2009-2019 (incident patients) were considered. Multilevel logistic models were used to estimate Odds Ratio (OR) and corresponding 95% Confidence intervals. Factors with statistically significance were identified as characteristics associated with treatment regimens: cyclosporin-CsA vs tacrolimus-Tac and, within the latter group, mTOR inhibitors vs mycophenolate-MMF. RESULTS: We identified 3,622 kidney patients undergoing transplantation in 17 hospitals located in 4 Italian regions, 78.3% was treated with TAC-based therapy, of which 78% and 22% in combination with MMF and mTOR, respectively. For both comparison groups, the choice of immunosuppressive regimens was mostly guided by standard hospital practices. Only few recipient and donor characteristics were found associated with specific regimen (donor/receipt age, immunological risk and diabetes). CONCLUSIONS: The choice of post-renal transplant immunosuppressive therapy seems to be mostly driven by standard Centre practices, while only partially based on patient's characteristics and recognized international guidelines.

Prognostic Impact of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Older Patients Hospitalized with Acute Myocardial Infarction: Real-World Findings from the Lombardy Health Database.

BACKGROUND: Older patients are less likely to receive percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared to younger patients. We investigated the prognostic impact of PCI in a large population of patients hospitalized with AMI in the period 2003-2018 by using the administrative Lombardy Health Database (Italy). METHODS: We considered all patients aged ≥75 years hospitalized with AMI (either STEMI or NSTEMI) from 2003 to 2018 in Lombardy. Patients were grouped according to whether they were treated or not with PCI during the index hospitalization. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The secondary endpoints were 1-year mortality and 1-year re-hospitalization for acute heart failure (AHF) or AMI. RESULTS: 116,063 patients aged ≥75 years (mean age 83 ± 6; 48% males; 46% STEMI) were hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of AMI. Thirty-seven percent of them (n = 42,912) underwent PCI. The in-hospital mortality rate was significantly lower in PCI-treated patients (6% vs. 15%; p < 0.0001). One-year mortality and 1-year re-hospitalization for AHF/AMI were less frequent in PCI-treated patients (16% vs. 41% and 15% vs. 21%, respectively; p < 0.0001). The adjusted risks of the study endpoints were lower in PCI-treated patients: OR 0.37 (95% CI 0.36-0.39) for in-hospital mortality; HR 0.37 (95% CI 0.36-0.38) for 1-year mortality; HR 0.74 (95% CI 0.71-0.77) for 1-year re-hospitalization for AHF/AMI. Similar results were found in STEMI and NSTEMI patients considered separately. CONCLUSIONS: Our real-world data showed that in patients with AMI ≥ 75 years of age, PCI use is associated with lower in-hospital and 1-year mortality.

The potential of digital health records for public health research, policy, and practice: the case of the Lombardy Region Data Warehouse.

Digital health records can provide advantages to healthcare practice, policy, and research. Several countries have established population-based digitalised data collection, integrated through data linkage techniques. In Lombardy (Italy), a regional population-based registry was established in the 2000s. It collects data from the social and health sector, anonymised immediately after their acquisition and restructured in a single repository. Data can be used for public health interest, planning, monitoring, services evaluation, and research. Indeed, data can also be provided to universities and other scientific institutes. The availability of such data enables to explore the epidemiology of infectious, chronic, and rare diseases. Thus, epidemiological research can support policymakers to tackle public health threats. However, analysis of electronic health records comes along with several challenges, including data inaccuracy, incompleteness, and biases. Researchers should take into consideration limits and barriers related to quality of data. Moreover, health data use must adhere to the national and European privacy legislation, at times limiting the potential of data integration. Therefore, even if big data drives innovation and scientific knowledge, ethical issues regarding privacy should be considered in public debate.

Improved prediction of 5-year mortality by updating the chronic related score for risk profiling in the general population: lessons from the italian region of Lombardy.

Objective: The aim of this study was to improve the performance of the Chronic Related Score (CReSc) in predicting mortality and healthcare needs in the general population. Methods: A population-based study was conducted, including all beneficiaries of the Regional Health Service of Lombardy, Italy, aged 18 years or older in January 2015. Each individual was classified as exposed or unexposed to 69 candidate predictors measured before baseline, updated to include four mental health disorders. Conditions independently associated with 5-year mortality were selected using the Cox regression model on a random sample including 5.4 million citizens. The predictive performance of the obtained CReSc-2.0 was assessed on the remaining 2.7 million citizens through discrimination and calibration. Results: A total of 35 conditions significantly contributed to the CReSc-2.0, among which Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases, dementia, heart failure, active neoplasm, and kidney dialysis contributed the most to the score. Approximately 36% of citizens suffered from at least one condition. CReSc-2.0 discrimination performance was remarkable, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83. Trends toward increasing short-term (1-year) and long-term (5-year) rates of mortality, hospital admission, hospital stay, and healthcare costs were observed as CReSc-2.0 increased. Conclusion: CReSC-2.0 represents an improved tool for stratifying populations according to healthcare needs.

Post-recovery impact of the second and third SARS-CoV-2 infection waves on healthcare resource utilization in Lombardy, Italy.

The administrative claims database of the Italian region Lombardy, the first in Europe to be hit by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, was employed to evaluate the impact on healthcare resource utilization following recovery from the second (mainly alpha-related variant) and third (delta-related) infection waves. 317,164 individuals recovered from the infection and became negative after the second wave, 271,180 after the third. Of them, 1571 (0.5%) and 1575 (0.6%) died in the first 6 post-negativization months. In the remaining cases (315,593 after the second wave and 269,605 after the third), hospitalizations, attendances to emergency rooms and outpatient visits were compared with those recorded in the same pre-pandemic time periods in 2019. Dispensation of drugs as well as of imaging, and functional and biochemical diagnostic tests were also compared as additional proxies of the healthcare impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection waves. Following both waves, hospitalizations, attendances at emergency rooms, and outpatient visits were similar in number and rates to the pre-pandemic periods. However, there was an increased dispensation a number of drugs and diagnostic tests, particularly those addressing the cardiorespiratory and blood systems. In a large region such as Lombardy taken as a relevant model because early and severely hit by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the post-COVID burden on healthcare facilities was mildly relevant in cases who recovered from the second and third infection waves regarding such pivotal events as deaths, hospitalizations, and need for emergency room and outpatient visits, but was high regarding the dispensation of some drug classes and types of diagnostic tests.

Web-based surveillance of respiratory infection outbreaks: retrospective analysis of Italian COVID-19 epidemic waves using Google Trends.

Introduction: Large-scale diagnostic testing has been proven insufficient to promptly monitor the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019. Electronic resources may provide better insight into the early detection of epidemics. We aimed to retrospectively explore whether the Google search volume has been useful in detecting Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus outbreaks early compared to the swab-based surveillance system. Methods: The Google Trends website was used by applying the research to three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche, and Sicily), covering 16 million Italian citizens. An autoregressive-moving-average model was fitted, and residual charts were plotted to detect outliers in weekly searches of five keywords. Signals that occurred during periods labelled as free from epidemics were used to measure Positive Predictive Values and False Negative Rates in anticipating the epidemic wave occurrence. Results: Signals from "fever," "cough," and "sore throat" showed better performance than those from "loss of smell" and "loss of taste." More than 80% of true epidemic waves were detected early by the occurrence of at least an outlier signal in Lombardy, although this implies a 20% false alarm signals. Performance was poorer for Sicily and Marche. Conclusion: Monitoring the volume of Google searches can be a valuable tool for early detection of respiratory infectious disease outbreaks, particularly in areas with high access to home internet. The inclusion of web-based syndromic keywords is promising as it could facilitate the containment of COVID-19 and perhaps other unknown infectious diseases in the future.

Two years of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and COVID-19 in Lombardy, Italy.

Lombardy, the largest and most densely populated Italian region, was severely hit in February 2020 by the first pandemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 and associated COVID-19. Since then, additional infection waves spread in the region. The aim of this study was to compare the first with the subsequent waves using the administrative database of the Lombardy Welfare directorate. In the time frames of the four 2020-2022 waves, the absolute number of infected cases, sites of management and crude mortality rate associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity were extracted from the database. Infected cases progressively increased in the region by approximately 5-fold in the second versus the first wave, 4-fold in the third and 20-fold during the most recent wave mainly associated with the omicron variant. The crude death decreased from 18.7% in the first to 2% in the second and third wave to reach a 0.3% nadir at the time of the fourth wave. This study confirms that in Lombardy outcomes of public health and health-care relevance such as deaths and number of hospitalizations declined dramatically across the four virus waves and reached very low values in 2022 when, at variance with the first three SARS-CoV-2 waves, the majority of infected cases had been previously vaccinated.