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1.
Epidemics ; 47: 100775, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38838462

ABSTRACT

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers and scientists. In the past decade, and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the field of epidemiology has seen substantial growth in the use of scenario projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at the same time, allowing important comparisons that can guide the choice of intervention, the prioritization of research topics, or public communication. The design of the scenarios is central to their ability to inform important questions. In this paper, we draw on the fields of decision analysis and statistical design of experiments to propose a framework for scenario design in epidemiology, with relevance also to other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes for scenario designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting, and value of information) and discuss how those purposes guide the structure of scenarios. We discuss other aspects of the content and process of scenario design, broadly for all settings and specifically for multi-model ensemble projections. As an illustrative case study, we examine the first 17 rounds of scenarios from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect on future advancements that could improve the design of scenarios in epidemiological settings.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Decision Support Techniques , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Forecasting , SARS-CoV-2 , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , Decision Making , Research Design
2.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38774820

ABSTRACT

We present MacKenzie, a HPC-driven multi-cluster workflow system that was used repeatedly to configure and execute fine-grained US national-scale epidemic simulation models during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mackenzie supported federal and Virginia policymakers, in real-time, for a large number of "what-if" scenarios during the COVID-19 pandemic, and continues to be used to answer related questions as COVID-19 transitions to the endemic stage of the disease. MacKenzie is a novel HPC meta-scheduler that can execute US-scale simulation models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges. The meta-scheduler optimizes the total execution time of simulations in the workflow, and helps improve overall human productivity. As an exemplar of the kind of studies that can be conducted using Mackenzie, we present a modeling study to understand the impact of vaccine-acceptance in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the US. We use a 288 million node synthetic social contact network (digital twin) spanning all 50 US states plus Washington DC, comprised of 3300 counties, with 12 billion daily interactions. The highly-resolved agent-based model used for the epidemic simulations uses realistic information about disease progression, vaccine uptake, production schedules, acceptance trends, prevalence, and social distancing guidelines. Computational experiments show that, for the simulation workload discussed above, MacKenzie is able to scale up well to 10K CPU cores. Our modeling results show that, when compared to faster and accelerating vaccinations, slower vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy cause averted infections to drop from 6.7M to 4.5M, and averted total deaths to drop from 39.4K to 28.2K across the US. This occurs despite the fact that the final vaccine coverage is the same in both scenarios. We also find that if vaccine acceptance could be increased by 10% in all states, averted infections could be increased from 4.5M to 4.7M (a 4.4% improvement) and total averted deaths could be increased from 28.2K to 29.9K (a 6% improvement) nationwide.

3.
ArXiv ; 2024 Mar 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38562450

ABSTRACT

The pandemic of COVID-19 has imposed tremendous pressure on public health systems and social economic ecosystems over the past years. To alleviate its social impact, it is important to proactively track the prevalence of COVID-19 within communities. The traditional way to estimate the disease prevalence is to estimate from reported clinical test data or surveys. However, the coverage of clinical tests is often limited and the tests can be labor-intensive, requires reliable and timely results, and consistent diagnostic and reporting criteria. Recent studies revealed that patients who are diagnosed with COVID-19 often undergo fecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 virus into wastewater, which makes wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for COVID-19 surveillance a promising approach to complement traditional clinical testing. In this paper, we survey the existing literature regarding WBE for COVID-19 surveillance and summarize the current advances in the area. Specifically, we have covered the key aspects of wastewater sampling, sample testing, and presented a comprehensive and organized summary of wastewater data analytical methods. Finally, we provide the open challenges on current wastewater-based COVID-19 surveillance studies, aiming to encourage new ideas to advance the development of effective wastewater-based surveillance systems for general infectious diseases.

4.
Epidemics ; 47: 100761, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38555667

ABSTRACT

Scenario-based modeling frameworks have been widely used to support policy-making at state and federal levels in the United States during the COVID-19 response. While custom-built models can be used to support one-off studies, sustained updates to projections under changing pandemic conditions requires a robust, integrated, and adaptive framework. In this paper, we describe one such framework, UVA-adaptive, that was built to support the CDC-aligned Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) across multiple rounds, as well as weekly/biweekly projections to Virginia Department of Health (VDH) and US Department of Defense during the COVID-19 response. Building upon an existing metapopulation framework, PatchSim, UVA-adaptive uses a calibration mechanism relying on adjustable effective transmissibility as a basis for scenario definition while also incorporating real-time datasets on case incidence, seroprevalence, variant characteristics, and vaccine uptake. Through the pandemic, our framework evolved by incorporating available data sources and was extended to capture complexities of multiple strains and heterogeneous immunity of the population. Here we present the version of the model that was used for the recent projections for SMH and VDH, describe the calibration and projection framework, and demonstrate that the calibrated transmissibility correlates with the evolution of the pathogen as well as associated societal dynamics.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/immunology , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , United States/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , Virginia/epidemiology , Epidemiological Models , Forecasting
5.
PNAS Nexus ; 3(3): pgae080, 2024 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38505694

ABSTRACT

The ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine has forced over eight million people to migrate out of Ukraine. Understanding the dynamics of forced migration is essential for policy-making and for delivering humanitarian assistance. Existing work is hindered by a reliance on observational data which is only available well after the fact. In this work, we study the efficacy of a data-driven agent-based framework motivated by social and behavioral theory in predicting outflow of migrants as a result of conflict events during the initial phase of the Ukraine war. We discuss policy use cases for the proposed framework by demonstrating how it can leverage refugee demographic details to answer pressing policy questions. We also show how to incorporate conflict forecast scenarios to predict future conflict-induced migration flows. Detailed future migration estimates across various conflict scenarios can both help to reduce policymaker uncertainty and improve allocation and staging of limited humanitarian resources in crisis settings.

6.
Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol ; : 1-6, 2024 Feb 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38404133

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the economic costs of reducing the University of Virginia Hospital's present "3-negative" policy, which continues methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) contact precautions until patients receive 3 consecutive negative test results, to either 2 or 1 negative. DESIGN: Cost-effective analysis. SETTINGS: The University of Virginia Hospital. PATIENTS: The study included data from 41,216 patients from 2015 to 2019. METHODS: We developed a model for MRSA transmission in the University of Virginia Hospital, accounting for both environmental contamination and interactions between patients and providers, which were derived from electronic health record (EHR) data. The model was fit to MRSA incidence over the study period under the current 3-negative clearance policy. A counterfactual simulation was used to estimate outcomes and costs for 2- and 1-negative policies compared with the current 3-negative policy. RESULTS: Our findings suggest that 2-negative and 1-negative policies would have led to 6 (95% CI, -30 to 44; P < .001) and 17 (95% CI, -23 to 59; -10.1% to 25.8%; P < .001) more MRSA cases, respectively, at the hospital over the study period. Overall, the 1-negative policy has statistically significantly lower costs ($628,452; 95% CI, $513,592-$752,148) annually (P < .001) in US dollars, inflation-adjusted for 2023) than the 2-negative policy ($687,946; 95% CI, $562,522-$812,662) and 3-negative ($702,823; 95% CI, $577,277-$846,605). CONCLUSIONS: A single negative MRSA nares PCR test may provide sufficient evidence to discontinue MRSA contact precautions, and it may be the most cost-effective option.

7.
J Natl Compr Canc Netw ; 22(1): 4-16, 2024 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38394781

ABSTRACT

The NCCN Guidelines for Kidney Cancer provide multidisciplinary recommendations for diagnostic workup, staging, and treatment of patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC). These NCCN Guidelines Insights focus on the systemic therapy options for patients with advanced RCC and summarize the new clinical data evaluated by the NCCN panel for the recommended therapies in Version 2.2024 of the NCCN Guidelines for Kidney Cancer.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Renal Cell , Kidney Neoplasms , Humans , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/diagnosis , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/therapy , Kidney Neoplasms/diagnosis , Kidney Neoplasms/therapy
8.
Oncologist ; 29(2): 91-98, 2024 Feb 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38048064

ABSTRACT

The 5th Kidney Cancer Research Summit was a hybrid event hosted in Boston, MA in July 2023. As in previous editions, the conference attracted a wide representation of global thought leaders in kidney cancer spanning all stages of clinical and laboratory research. Sessions covered tumor metabolism, novel immune pathways, advances in clinical trials and immunotherapy, and progress toward biomarkers. The abstract presentations were published as a supplement in The Oncologist (https://academic.oup.com/oncolo/issue/28/Supplement_1). Aiming to be more concise than comprehensive, this commentary summarizes the most important emerging areas of kidney cancer research discussed and debated among the stakeholders at the conference, with relevant updates that have occurred since.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Renal Cell , Kidney Neoplasms , Humans , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/therapy , Kidney Neoplasms/therapy , Biomarkers , Research , Boston
9.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(48): e2305227120, 2023 Nov 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37983514

ABSTRACT

Disease surveillance systems provide early warnings of disease outbreaks before they become public health emergencies. However, pandemics containment would be challenging due to the complex immunity landscape created by multiple variants. Genomic surveillance is critical for detecting novel variants with diverse characteristics and importation/emergence times. Yet, a systematic study incorporating genomic monitoring, situation assessment, and intervention strategies is lacking in the literature. We formulate an integrated computational modeling framework to study a realistic course of action based on sequencing, analysis, and response. We study the effects of the second variant's importation time, its infectiousness advantage and, its cross-infection on the novel variant's detection time, and the resulting intervention scenarios to contain epidemics driven by two-variants dynamics. Our results illustrate the limitation in the intervention's effectiveness due to the variants' competing dynamics and provide the following insights: i) There is a set of importation times that yields the worst detection time for the second variant, which depends on the first variant's basic reproductive number; ii) When the second variant is imported relatively early with respect to the first variant, the cross-infection level does not impact the detection time of the second variant. We found that depending on the target metric, the best outcomes are attained under different interventions' regimes. Our results emphasize the importance of sustained enforcement of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on preventing epidemic resurgence due to importation/emergence of novel variants. We also discuss how our methods can be used to study when a novel variant emerges within a population.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Public Health , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Genomics
10.
medRxiv ; 2023 Oct 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37873156

ABSTRACT

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers and scientists. In the past decade, and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the field of epidemiology has seen substantial growth in the use of scenario projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at the same time, allowing important comparisons that can guide the choice of intervention, the prioritization of research topics, or public communication. The design of the scenarios is central to their ability to inform important questions. In this paper, we draw on the fields of decision analysis and statistical design of experiments to propose a framework for scenario design in epidemiology, with relevance also to other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes for scenario designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, value of information, situational awareness, horizon scanning, and forecasting) and discuss how those purposes guide the structure of scenarios. We discuss other aspects of the content and process of scenario design, broadly for all settings and specifically for multi-model ensemble projections. As an illustrative case study, we examine the first 17 rounds of scenarios from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect on future advancements that could improve the design of scenarios in epidemiological settings.

11.
Patient ; 16(5): 415-423, 2023 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37493895

ABSTRACT

The increased use of telehealth in cancer care during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has added to our knowledge and experience of the modality with benefits in terms of efficacy, cost, and patient and healthcare professional experience reported. However, telehealth has also been found not to be universally available to all patients with cancer, nor to be appropriate for every healthcare interaction; additionally, not all patients prefer it. Now that coronavirus disease restrictions have essentially ended and an opportunity to re-assess telehealth provision in cancer care presents, we offer a framework that aims to ensure that the needs and preferences of the patient community are included in the development of telehealth provision. Stakeholders in this process include patients, patient advocates, healthcare providers, healthcare services commissioners, managers, and policy makers. The framework outlines how patient advocates can work with other stakeholders as equal partners at all stages of telehealth service development. The patient advocate community has a unique understanding of the patient perspective as well as expertise in healthcare design and delivery. This enables advocates to contribute to shaping telehealth provision, from policy and guideline formulation to patient navigation. Appropriate resources, education and training may be needed for all stakeholders to support the development of an effective telehealth system. Together with other stakeholders, patient advocates can make an important contribution to optimizing appropriate patient-centred telehealth provision in cancer care.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Neoplasms , Telemedicine , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Delivery of Health Care , Palliative Care , Health Personnel , Neoplasms/therapy
12.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(28): e2300590120, 2023 07 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37399393

ABSTRACT

When an influenza pandemic emerges, temporary school closures and antiviral treatment may slow virus spread, reduce the overall disease burden, and provide time for vaccine development, distribution, and administration while keeping a larger portion of the general population infection free. The impact of such measures will depend on the transmissibility and severity of the virus and the timing and extent of their implementation. To provide robust assessments of layered pandemic intervention strategies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded a network of academic groups to build a framework for the development and comparison of multiple pandemic influenza models. Research teams from Columbia University, Imperial College London/Princeton University, Northeastern University, the University of Texas at Austin/Yale University, and the University of Virginia independently modeled three prescribed sets of pandemic influenza scenarios developed collaboratively by the CDC and network members. Results provided by the groups were aggregated into a mean-based ensemble. The ensemble and most component models agreed on the ranking of the most and least effective intervention strategies by impact but not on the magnitude of those impacts. In the scenarios evaluated, vaccination alone, due to the time needed for development, approval, and deployment, would not be expected to substantially reduce the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths that would occur. Only strategies that included early implementation of school closure were found to substantially mitigate early spread and allow time for vaccines to be developed and administered, especially under a highly transmissible pandemic scenario.


Subject(s)
Influenza Vaccines , Influenza, Human , Humans , Influenza, Human/drug therapy , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Pharmaceutical Preparations , Pandemics/prevention & control , Influenza Vaccines/therapeutic use , Antiviral Agents/pharmacology , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use
13.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 17: 100398, 2023 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36437905

ABSTRACT

Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).

14.
Int J High Perform Comput Appl ; 37(1): 4-27, 2023 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38603425

ABSTRACT

This paper describes an integrated, data-driven operational pipeline based on national agent-based models to support federal and state-level pandemic planning and response. The pipeline consists of (i) an automatic semantic-aware scheduling method that coordinates jobs across two separate high performance computing systems; (ii) a data pipeline to collect, integrate and organize national and county-level disaggregated data for initialization and post-simulation analysis; (iii) a digital twin of national social contact networks made up of 288 Million individuals and 12.6 Billion time-varying interactions covering the US states and DC; (iv) an extension of a parallel agent-based simulation model to study epidemic dynamics and associated interventions. This pipeline can run 400 replicates of national runs in less than 33 h, and reduces the need for human intervention, resulting in faster turnaround times and higher reliability and accuracy of the results. Scientifically, the work has led to significant advances in real-time epidemic sciences.

15.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 743, 2022 Sep 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36127637

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Lockdowns imposed throughout the US to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in all routine immunizations rates, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. It is feared that post-lockdown, these reduced MMR rates will lead to a resurgence of measles. METHODS: To measure the potential impact of reduced MMR vaccination rates on measles outbreak, this research examines several counterfactual scenarios in pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 era. An agent-based modeling framework is used to simulate the spread of measles on a synthetic yet realistic social network of Virginia. The change in vulnerability of various communities to measles due to reduced MMR rate is analyzed. RESULTS: Results show that a decrease in vaccination rate [Formula: see text] has a highly non-linear effect on the number of measles cases and this effect grows exponentially beyond a threshold [Formula: see text]. At low vaccination rates, faster isolation of cases and higher compliance to home-isolation are not enough to control the outbreak. The overall impact on urban and rural counties is proportional to their population size but the younger children, African Americans and American Indians are disproportionately infected and hence are more vulnerable to the reduction in the vaccination rate. CONCLUSIONS: At low vaccination rates, broader interventions are needed to control the outbreak. Identifying the cause of the decline in vaccination rates (e.g., low income) can help design targeted interventions which can dampen the disproportional impact on more vulnerable populations and reduce disparities in health. Per capita burden of the potential measles resurgence is equivalent in the rural and the urban communities and hence proportionally equitable public health resources should be allocated to rural regions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Measles , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Communicable Disease Control , Humans , Measles/epidemiology , Measles/prevention & control , Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine , Pandemics , United States/epidemiology
16.
Elife ; 112022 06 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35726851

ABSTRACT

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , United States/epidemiology , Vaccination
17.
J Clin Oncol ; 40(25): 2957-2995, 2022 09 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35728020

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To provide recommendations for the management of patients with metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). METHODS: An Expert Panel conducted a systematic literature review to obtain evidence to guide treatment recommendations. RESULTS: The panel considered peer-reviewed reports published in English. RECOMMENDATIONS: The diagnosis of metastatic ccRCC should be made using tissue biopsy of the primary tumor or a metastatic site with the inclusion of markers and/or stains to support the diagnosis. The International Metastatic RCC Database Consortium risk criteria should be used to inform treatment. Cytoreductive nephrectomy may be offered to select patients with kidney-in-place and favorable- or intermediate-risk disease. For those who have already had a nephrectomy, an initial period of active surveillance may be offered if they are asymptomatic with a low burden of disease. Patients with favorable-risk disease who need systemic therapy may be offered an immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) in combination with a vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI); patients with intermediate or poor risk should be offered a doublet regimen (no recommendation was provided between ICIs or an ICI in combination with a VEGFR TKI). For select patients, monotherapy with either an ICI or a VEGFR TKI may be offered on the basis of comorbidities. Interleukin-2 remains an option, although selection criteria could not be identified. Recommendations are also provided for second- and subsequent-line therapy as well as the treatment of bone metastases, brain metastases, or the presence of sarcomatoid features. Participation in clinical trials is highly encouraged for patients with metastatic ccRCC.Additional information is available at www.asco.org/genitourinary-cancer-guidelines.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Renal Cell , Kidney Neoplasms , Angiogenesis Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/drug therapy , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/pathology , Humans , Kidney Neoplasms/drug therapy , Kidney Neoplasms/pathology , Protein Kinase Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A
18.
medRxiv ; 2022 Mar 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35313593

ABSTRACT

Background: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches. Findings: Absent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts. Conclusions: Results from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.

19.
J Natl Compr Canc Netw ; 20(1): 71-90, 2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34991070

ABSTRACT

The NCCN Guidelines for Kidney Cancer focus on the screening, diagnosis, staging, treatment, and management of renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Patients with relapsed or stage IV RCC typically undergo surgery and/or receive systemic therapy. Tumor histology and risk stratification of patients is important in therapy selection. The NCCN Guidelines for Kidney Cancer stratify treatment recommendations by histology; recommendations for first-line treatment of ccRCC are also stratified by risk group. To further guide management of advanced RCC, the NCCN Kidney Cancer Panel has categorized all systemic kidney cancer therapy regimens as "Preferred," "Other Recommended Regimens," or "Useful in Certain Circumstances." This categorization provides guidance on treatment selection by considering the efficacy, safety, evidence, and other factors that play a role in treatment selection. These factors include pre-existing comorbidities, nature of the disease, and in some cases consideration of access to agents. This article summarizes surgical and systemic therapy recommendations for patients with relapsed or stage IV RCC.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Renal Cell , Kidney Neoplasms , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/diagnosis , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/therapy , Humans , Kidney Neoplasms/diagnosis , Kidney Neoplasms/therapy , Medical Oncology
20.
Clin Cancer Res ; 28(5): 831-839, 2022 03 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34965942

ABSTRACT

The second Kidney Cancer Research Summit was held virtually in October 2020. The meeting gathered worldwide experts in the field of kidney cancer, including basic, translational, and clinical scientists as well as patient advocates. Novel studies were presented, addressing areas of unmet need related to different topics. These include novel metabolic targets, promising immunotherapeutic regimens, predictive genomic and transcriptomic biomarkers, and variant histologies of renal cell carcinoma (RCC). With the development of pioneering technologies, and an unprecedented commitment to kidney cancer research, the field has tremendously evolved. This perspective aims to summarize the different sessions of the conference, outline major advances in the understanding of RCC and discuss current challenges faced by the field.


Subject(s)
Biomedical Research , Carcinoma, Renal Cell , Kidney Neoplasms , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/diagnosis , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/genetics , Carcinoma, Renal Cell/therapy , Female , Genomics , Humans , Kidney Neoplasms/diagnosis , Kidney Neoplasms/genetics , Kidney Neoplasms/therapy , Male
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