Development of an online calculator for the prediction of seizure freedom following pediatric hemispherectomy using the Hemispherectomy Outcome Prediction Scale (HOPS).

OBJECTIVES: Although hemispheric surgeries are among the most effective procedures for drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) in the pediatric population, there is a large variability in seizure outcomes at the group level. A recently developed HOPS score provides individualized estimation of likelihood of seizure freedom to complement clinical judgement. The objective of this study was to develop a freely accessible online calculator that accurately predicts the probability of seizure freedom for any patient at 1-, 2-, and 5-years post-hemispherectomy. METHODS: Retrospective data of all pediatric patients with DRE and seizure outcome data from the original Hemispherectomy Outcome Prediction Scale (HOPS) study were included. The primary outcome of interest was time-to-seizure recurrence. A multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression model was developed to predict the likelihood of post-hemispheric surgery seizure freedom at three time points (1-, 2- and 5- years) based on a combination of variables identified by clinical judgment and inferential statistics predictive of the primary outcome. The final model from this study was encoded in a publicly accessible online calculator on the International Network for Epilepsy Surgery and Treatment (iNEST) website (https://hops-calculator.com/). RESULTS: The selected variables for inclusion in the final model included the five original HOPS variables (age at seizure onset, etiologic substrate, seizure semiology, prior non-hemispheric resective surgery, and contralateral fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography [FDG-PET] hypometabolism) and three additional variables (age at surgery, history of infantile spasms, and magnetic resonance imaging [MRI] lesion). Predictors of shorter time-to-seizure recurrence included younger age at seizure onset, prior resective surgery, generalized seizure semiology, FDG-PET hypometabolism contralateral to the side of surgery, contralateral MRI lesion, non-lesional MRI, non-stroke etiologies, and a history of infantile spasms. The area under the curve (AUC) of the final model was 73.0%. SIGNIFICANCE: Online calculators are useful, cost-free tools that can assist physicians in risk estimation and inform joint decision-making processes with patients and families, potentially leading to greater satisfaction. Although the HOPS data was validated in the original analysis, the authors encourage external validation of this new calculator.

Comparison of the real-world effectiveness of vertical versus lateral functional hemispherotomy techniques for pediatric drug-resistant epilepsy: A post hoc analysis of the HOPS study.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to determine whether the vertical parasagittal approach or the lateral peri-insular/peri-Sylvian approach to hemispheric surgery is the superior technique in achieving long-term seizure freedom. METHODS: We conducted a post hoc subgroup analysis of the HOPS (Hemispheric Surgery Outcome Prediction Scale) study, an international, multicenter, retrospective cohort study that identified predictors of seizure freedom through logistic regression modeling. Only patients undergoing vertical parasagittal, lateral peri-insular/peri-Sylvian, or lateral trans-Sylvian hemispherotomy were included in this post hoc analysis. Differences in seizure freedom rates were assessed using a time-to-event method and calculated using the Kaplan-Meier survival method. RESULTS: Data for 672 participants across 23 centers were collected on the specific hemispherotomy approach. Of these, 72 (10.7%) underwent vertical parasagittal hemispherotomy and 600 (89.3%) underwent lateral peri-insular/peri-Sylvian or trans-Sylvian hemispherotomy. Seizure freedom was obtained in 62.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 53.5%-70.2%) of the entire cohort at 10-year follow-up. Seizure freedom was 88.8% (95% CI = 78.9%-94.3%) at 1-year follow-up and persisted at 85.5% (95% CI = 74.7%-92.0%) across 5- and 10-year follow-up in the vertical subgroup. In contrast, seizure freedom decreased from 89.2% (95% CI = 86.3%-91.5%) at 1-year to 72.1% (95% CI = 66.9%-76.7%) at 5-year to 57.2% (95% CI = 46.6%-66.4%) at 10-year follow-up for the lateral subgroup. Log-rank test found that vertical hemispherotomy was associated with durable seizure-free progression compared to the lateral approach (p = .01). Patients undergoing the lateral hemispherotomy technique had a shorter time-to-seizure recurrence (hazard ratio = 2.56, 95% CI = 1.08-6.04, p = .03) and increased seizure recurrence odds (odds ratio = 3.67, 95% CI = 1.05-12.86, p = .04) compared to those undergoing the vertical hemispherotomy technique. SIGNIFICANCE: This pilot study demonstrated more durable seizure freedom of the vertical technique compared to lateral hemispherotomy techniques. Further studies, such as prospective expertise-based observational studies or a randomized clinical trial, are required to determine whether a vertical approach to hemispheric surgery provides superior long-term seizure outcomes.

Preoperative Heart Rate Variability During Sleep Predicts Vagus Nerve Stimulation Outcome Better in Patients With Drug-Resistant Epilepsy.

Objective: Vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) is an adjunctive and well-established treatment for patients with drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE). However, it is still difficult to identify patients who may benefit from VNS surgery. Our study aims to propose a VNS outcome prediction model based on machine learning with multidimensional preoperative heart rate variability (HRV) indices. Methods: The preoperative electrocardiography (ECG) of 59 patients with DRE and of 50 healthy controls were analyzed. Responders were defined as having at least 50% average monthly seizure frequency reduction at 1-year follow-up. Time domain, frequency domain, and non-linear indices of HRV were compared between 30 responders and 29 non-responders in awake and sleep states, respectively. For feature selection, univariate filter and recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithms were performed to assess the importance of different HRV indices to VNS outcome prediction and improve the classification performance. Random forest (RF) was used to train the classifier, and leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation was performed to evaluate the prediction model. Results: Among 52 HRV indices, 49 showed significant differences between DRE patients and healthy controls. In sleep state, 35 HRV indices of responders were significantly higher than those of non-responders, while 16 of them showed the same differences in awake state. Low-frequency power (LF) ranked first in the importance ranking results by univariate filter and RFE methods, respectively. With HRV indices in sleep state, our model achieved 74.6% accuracy, 80% precision, 70.6% recall, and 75% F1 for VNS outcome prediction, which was better than the optimal performance in awake state (65.3% accuracy, 66.4% precision, 70.5% recall, and 68.4% F1). Significance: With the ECG during sleep state and machine learning techniques, the statistical model based on preoperative HRV could achieve a better performance of VNS outcome prediction and, therefore, help patients who are not suitable for VNS to avoid the high cost of surgery and possible risks of long-term stimulation.

Hemispherectomy Outcome Prediction Scale: Development and validation of a seizure freedom prediction tool.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a model to predict seizure freedom in children undergoing cerebral hemispheric surgery for the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy. METHODS: We analyzed 1267 hemispheric surgeries performed in pediatric participants across 32 centers and 12 countries to identify predictors of seizure freedom at 3 months after surgery. A multivariate logistic regression model was developed based on 70% of the dataset (training set) and validated on 30% of the dataset (validation set). Missing data were handled using multiple imputation techniques. RESULTS: Overall, 817 of 1237 (66%) hemispheric surgeries led to seizure freedom (median follow-up = 24 months), and 1050 of 1237 (85%) were seizure-free at 12 months after surgery. A simple regression model containing age at seizure onset, presence of generalized seizure semiology, presence of contralateral 18-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose-positron emission tomography hypometabolism, etiologic substrate, and previous nonhemispheric resective surgery is predictive of seizure freedom (area under the curve = .72). A Hemispheric Surgery Outcome Prediction Scale (HOPS) score was devised that can be used to predict seizure freedom. SIGNIFICANCE: Children most likely to benefit from hemispheric surgery can be selected and counseled through the implementation of a scale derived from a multiple regression model. Importantly, children who are unlikely to experience seizure control can be spared from the complications and deficits associated with this surgery. The HOPS score is likely to help physicians in clinical decision-making.

Preoperative Heart Rate Variability as Predictors of Vagus Nerve Stimulation Outcome in Patients with Drug-resistant Epilepsy.

Vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) is an adjunctive treatment for drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE). However, it is still difficult to predict which patients will respond to VNS treatment and to what extent. We aim to explore the relationship between preoperative heart rate variability (HRV) and VNS outcome. 50 healthy control subjects and 63 DRE patients who had received VNS implants and had at least one year of follow up were included. The preoperative HRV were analyzed by traditional linear methods and heart rhythm complexity analyses with multiscale entropy (MSE). DRE patients had significantly lower complexity indices (CI) as well as traditional linear HRV measurements than healthy controls. We also found that non-responders0 had significantly lower preoperative CI including Area 1-5, Area 6-15 and Area 6-20 than those in the responders0 while those of the non-responders50 had significantly lower RMSSD, pNN50, VLF, LF, HF, TP and LF/HF than the responders50. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Area 6-20 and RMSSD had the greatest discriminatory power for the responders0 and non-responders0, responders50 and non-responders50, respectively. Our results suggest that preoperative assessment of HRV by linear and MSE analysis can help in predicting VNS outcomes in patients with DRE.

[Pathologic features of ulegyria in refractory epilepsy by modified anatomic hemispherectomy: a clinicopathologic study of 39 cases].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinicopathologic features of the brain tissue diagnosed as ulegyria from modified anatomic hemispherectomy for refractory epilepsy. METHODS: The clinical and pathologic findings were reviewed in 39 patients who underwent modified anatomic hemispherectomy and diagnosed as ulegyria in the Epilepsy Center of Tsinghua University Yuquan Hospital from 2007 to 2011. RESULTS: All patients including 30 males and 9 females had medically intractable seizures, and the mean age of seizure onset and disease duration were 4.0 years and 7.3 years respectively. Significant history included febrile seizure in 14 patients (35.9%), cerebral hemorrhage in 8 patients (20.5%), fetal distress and surgical trauma each in 6 patients (15.4%), vascular malformation and cerebral hemorrhage in 1 patient (2.6%), and unclear history in 4 patients (10.2%). Histologically, all cases were characterized by cortical destruction, with neuronal loss and gliosis. All cases were accompanied by varying degree of cortical dysplasia, which were diagnosed as focal cortical dysplasia IIId. Hippocampus sclerosis was identified in 2 cases. Seizure outcome after surgery revealed 37 patients (94.9%) had an Engel grade I, two patients (5.1%) had an Engel grade II. CONCLUSIONS: Febrile seizure, cerebral hemorrhage, fetal distress and surgical trauma in childhood can lead to refractory epilepsy. Histopathological change in the brain is ulegyria accompanied by focal cortical dysplasia IIId. Modified anatomic hemispherectomy is an effective therapy to treat those patients with extensive changes of one hemisphere.