Pitfalls of single-study external validation illustrated with a model predicting functional outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Prediction models are often externally validated with data from a single study or cohort. However, the interpretation of performance estimates obtained with single-study external validation is not as straightforward as assumed. We aimed to illustrate this by conducting a large number of external validations of a prediction model for functional outcome in subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) patients. METHODS: We used data from the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) data repository (n = 11,931, 14 studies) to refit the SAHIT model for predicting a dichotomous functional outcome (favorable versus unfavorable), with the (extended) Glasgow Outcome Scale or modified Rankin Scale score, at a minimum of three months after discharge. We performed leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation to mimic the process of multiple single-study external validations. Each study represented one cluster. In each of these validations, we assessed discrimination with Harrell's c-statistic and calibration with calibration plots, the intercepts, and the slopes. We used random effects meta-analysis to obtain the (reference) mean performance estimates and between-study heterogeneity (I2-statistic). The influence of case-mix variation on discriminative performance was assessed with the model-based c-statistic and we fitted a "membership model" to obtain a gross estimate of transportability. RESULTS: Across 14 single-study external validations, model performance was highly variable. The mean c-statistic was 0.74 (95%CI 0.70-0.78, range 0.52-0.84, I2 = 0.92), the mean intercept was -0.06 (95%CI -0.37-0.24, range -1.40-0.75, I2 = 0.97), and the mean slope was 0.96 (95%CI 0.78-1.13, range 0.53-1.31, I2 = 0.90). The decrease in discriminative performance was attributable to case-mix variation, between-study heterogeneity, or a combination of both. Incidentally, we observed poor generalizability or transportability of the model. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate two potential pitfalls in the interpretation of model performance with single-study external validation. With single-study external validation. (1) model performance is highly variable and depends on the choice of validation data and (2) no insight is provided into generalizability or transportability of the model that is needed to guide local implementation. As such, a single single-study external validation can easily be misinterpreted and lead to a false appreciation of the clinical prediction model. Cross-validation is better equipped to address these pitfalls.

Additional treatment after primary conservative treatment in patients with chronic subdural hematoma-A retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) is a common neurological condition and is typically treated with burr hole craniostomy. Nevertheless, conservative treatment may lead to spontaneous hematoma resolution in some patients. This study aims to describe the characteristics of patients who were treated conservatively without the eventual need for additional treatment. METHODS: Data were retrospectively collected from patients who were primarily treated conservatively in three hospitals in the Netherlands from 2008 to 2018. The Primary outcome was the nonnecessity of additional treatment within 3 months after the initial CSDH diagnosis. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses to identify factors associated with not receiving additional treatment. RESULTS: In this study, 83 patients were included and 61 patients (73%) did not receive additional treatment within 3 months. Upon first presentation, the patients had a Markwalder Grading Scale score (MGS) of 0 (n = 5, 6%), 1 (n = 43, 52%), and 2 (n = 35, 42%). Additional treatment was less often received by patients with smaller hematoma volumes (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.78 per 10 mL; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.92). Patients using antithrombotic medication also received less additional treatment, but this association was not significant (aOR 2.02; 95% CI 0.61-6.69). CONCLUSIONS: Three quarters of the initially conservatively treated CSDH patients do not receive additional management. Typically, these patients have smaller hematoma volumes. Further, prospective research is needed to distinguish which patients require surgical intervention and in whom primary conservative treatment suffices.

Prior traumatic brain injury is a risk factor for in-hospital mortality in moderate to severe traumatic brain injury: a TRACK-TBI cohort study.

Objectives: An estimated 14-23% of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) incur multiple lifetime TBIs. The relationship between prior TBI and outcomes in patients with moderate to severe TBI (msTBI) is not well delineated. We examined the associations between prior TBI, in-hospital mortality, and outcomes up to 12 months after injury in a prospective US msTBI cohort. Methods: Data from hospitalized subjects with Glasgow Coma Scale score of 3-12 were extracted from the Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Study (enrollment period: 2014-2019). Prior TBI with amnesia or alteration of consciousness was assessed using the Ohio State University TBI Identification Method. Competing risk regressions adjusting for age, sex, psychiatric history, cranial injury and extracranial injury severity examined the associations between prior TBI and in-hospital mortality, with hospital discharged alive as the competing risk. Adjusted HRs (aHR (95% CI)) were reported. Multivariable logistic regressions assessed the associations between prior TBI, mortality, and unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended score 1-3 (vs. 4-8)) at 3, 6, and 12 months after injury. Results: Of 405 acute msTBI subjects, 21.5% had prior TBI, which was associated with male sex (87.4% vs. 77.0%, p=0.037) and psychiatric history (34.5% vs. 20.7%, p=0.010). In-hospital mortality was 10.1% (prior TBI: 17.2%, no prior TBI: 8.2%, p=0.025). Competing risk regressions indicated that prior TBI was associated with likelihood of in-hospital mortality (aHR=2.06 (1.01-4.22)), but not with hospital discharged alive. Prior TBI was not associated with mortality or unfavorable outcomes at 3, 6, and 12 months. Conclusions: After acute msTBI, prior TBI history is independently associated with in-hospital mortality but not with mortality or unfavorable outcomes within 12 months after injury. This selective association underscores the importance of collecting standardized prior TBI history data early after acute hospitalization to inform risk stratification. Prospective validation studies are needed. Level of evidence: IV. Trial registration number: NCT02119182.

Psychometrics of patient-reported outcomes measurement information system in von Willebrand disease, inherited platelet function disorders, and rare bleeding disorders.

Background: Patient-reported outcomes measurement information system (PROMIS) measures can be used to measure patient-reported outcomes. PROMIS measures, including computer adaptive tests (CATs) and short forms, have demonstrated the ability to adequately assess outcomes in patients with hemophilia. It is, however, unclear if PROMIS measures are suitable for patients with von Willebrand disease (VWD), inherited platelet function disorders (IPFDs), and rare bleeding disorders (RBDs). Objectives: To evaluate the feasibility, measurement properties, and relevance of PROMIS measures in adults with VWD, IPFDs, and RBDs. Methods: In this cross-sectional multicenter study, adults with VWD, IPFDs, and RBDs completed 9 PROMIS measures and the Short Form-36 version 2 (SF-36v2) electronically. Feasibility was determined by the number of completed items and floor/ceiling effects. Measurement properties included construct validity based on a multitrait-multimethod analysis and reliability using the reliability coefficient and greatest lower bound. Relevance was evaluated based on comparison with the Dutch general population. Results: In total, 111 patients (median age, 57 years [IQR, 44-67]; 60% VWD, 16% IPFD, 24% RBD) participated. Mean number of items answered varied from 5.3 to 8.7 (range, 4-12) per PROMIS CAT in patients with VWD. Construct validity was supported for all CATs and all instruments had a good reliability (≥0.70). The PROMIS measures had less ceiling effects than the SF-36v2. Conclusion: The PROMIS measures are a feasible, valid, and reliable alternative for the SF-36v2 in patients with primarily nonsevere forms of VWD. The relevance of the selected measures was limited. Additional research is necessary to evaluate the PROMIS measures in adults with IPFDs and RBDs.

Patient experiences with value-based healthcare interventions at the HIV outpatient clinic of the Erasmus Medical Centre.

BACKGROUND: One of the aims of value-based healthcare (VBHC) is to deliver more patient-centred care. However, little is known about the effect of VBHC interventions on patient experiences. We aim to explore how patients experience VBHC as implemented in an HIV outpatient clinic in an academic hospital in the Netherlands. METHODS: The HIV outpatient clinic of the Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, an academic tertiary hospital, implemented a VBHC intervention consisting of 1) implementation of a generic quality of life questionnaire, administered before each visit, 2) a change in consultation schedule; from twice a year face-to-face to one face-to-face double consultation and one remote consultation per year, and 3) a change in consultation structure; from a single face-to-face consultation with the infectious diseases (ID) specialist to a double consultation in which the patient visits both the nurse and the ID specialist. Semi-structured interviews were held with Dutch or English-speaking adult patients, that had been a patient within Erasmus MC for more than 5 years, on their experiences with the implemented changes. RESULTS: Thirty patients were interviewed. Patients had no objections towards completing the questionnaires especially if it could provide the professionals with additional information. Patients were primarily positive about the change in consultation schedule. For the yearly remote consultation they preferred a telephone-consultation above a video-consultation. The change in consultation structure ensured that more topics, including psychosocial and medical aspects could be discussed. Some patients did not see the added value of talking to two professionals on the same day or completing the quality of life questionnaire before their consultation. CONCLUSION: Patients are generally positive towards the VBHC interventions implemented at the HIV outpatient clinic. Our findings may inform further optimization of VBHC interventions and improve patient-centred care in outpatient HIV clinics.

Clinical and Imaging Characteristics, Care Pathways, and Outcomes of Traumatic Epidural Hematomas: A Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Guideline recommendations for surgical management of traumatic epidural hematomas (EDHs) do not directly address EDHs that co-occur with other intracranial hematomas; the relative rates of isolated vs nonisolated EDHs and guideline adherence are unknown. We describe characteristics of a contemporary cohort of patients with EDHs and identify factors influencing acute surgery. METHODS: This research was conducted within the longitudinal, observational Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury cohort study which prospectively enrolled patients with traumatic brain injury from 65 hospitals in 18 European countries from 2014 to 2017. All patients with EDH on the first scan were included. We describe clinical, imaging, management, and outcome characteristics and assess associations between site and baseline characteristics and acute EDH surgery, using regression modeling. RESULTS: In 461 patients with EDH, median age was 41 years (IQR 24-56), 76% were male, and median EDH volume was 5 cm3 (IQR 2-20). Concomitant acute subdural hematomas (ASDHs) and/or intraparenchymal hemorrhages were present in 328/461 patients (71%). Acute surgery was performed in 99/461 patients (21%), including 70/86 with EDH volume ≥30 cm3 (81%). Larger EDH volumes (odds ratio [OR] 1.19 [95% CI 1.14-1.24] per cm3 below 30 cm3), smaller ASDH volumes (OR 0.93 [95% CI 0.88-0.97] per cm3), and midline shift (OR 6.63 [95% CI 1.99-22.15]) were associated with acute surgery; between-site variation was observed (median OR 2.08 [95% CI 1.01-3.48]). Six-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended scores ≥5 occurred in 289/389 patients (74%); 41/389 (11%) died. CONCLUSION: Isolated EDHs are relatively infrequent, and two-thirds of patients harbor concomitant ASDHs and/or intraparenchymal hemorrhages. EDHs ≥30 cm3 are generally evacuated early, adhering to Brain Trauma Foundation guidelines. For heterogeneous intracranial pathology, surgical decision-making is related to clinical status and overall lesion burden. Further research should examine the optimal surgical management of EDH with concomitant lesions in traumatic brain injury, to inform updated guidelines.

Value-Based Integrated Care: A Systematic Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare services worldwide are transforming themselves into value-based organizations. Integrated care is an important aspect of value-based healthcare (VBHC), but practical evidence-based recommendations for the successful implementation of integrated care within a VBHC context are lacking. This systematic review aims to identify how value-based integrated care (VBIC) is defined in literature, and to summarize the literature regarding the effects of VBIC, and the facilitators and barriers for its implementation. METHODS: Embase, Medline ALL, Web of Science Core Collection, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trails databases were searched from inception until January 2022. Empirical studies that implemented and evaluated an integrated care intervention within a VBHC context were included. Non-empirical studies were included if they described either a definition of VBIC or facilitators and barriers for its implementation. Theoretical articles and articles without an available full text were excluded. All included articles were analysed qualitatively. The Rainbow Model of Integrated Care (RMIC) was used to analyse the VBIC interventions. The quality of the articles was assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT). RESULTS: After screening 1328 titles/abstract and 485 full-text articles, 24 articles were included. No articles were excluded based on quality. One article provided a definition of VBIC. Eleven studies reported-mostly positive- effects of VBIC, on clinical outcomes, patient-reported outcomes, and healthcare utilization. Nineteen studies reported facilitators and barriers for the implementation of VBIC; factors related to reimbursement and information technology (IT) infrastructure were reported most frequently. CONCLUSION: The concept of VBIC is not well defined. The effect of VBIC seems promising, but the exact interpretation of effect evaluations is challenged by the precedence of multicomponent interventions, multiple testing and generalizability issues. For successful implementation of VBIC, it is imperative that healthcare organizations consider investing in adequate IT infrastructure and new reimbursement models. Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42021259025).

Performance of the IMPACT and CRASH prognostic models for traumatic brain injury in a contemporary multicenter cohort: a TRACK-TBI study.

OBJECTIVE: The International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) and Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) prognostic models for mortality and outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI) were developed using data from 1984 to 2004. This study examined IMPACT and CRASH model performances in a contemporary cohort of US patients. METHODS: The prospective 18-center Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) study (enrollment years 2014-2018) enrolled subjects aged ≥ 17 years who presented to level I trauma centers and received head CT within 24 hours of TBI. Data were extracted from the subjects who met the model criteria (for IMPACT, Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score 3-12 with 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended [GOSE] data [n = 441]; for CRASH, GCS score 3-14 with 2-week mortality data and 6-month GOSE data [n = 831]). Analyses were conducted in the overall cohort and stratified on the basis of TBI severity (severe/moderate/mild TBI defined as GCS score 3-8/9-12/13-14), age (17-64 years or ≥ 65 years), and the 5 top enrolling sites. Unfavorable outcome was defined as GOSE score 1-4. Original IMPACT and CRASH model coefficients were applied, and model performances were assessed by calibration (intercept [< 0 indicated overprediction; > 0 indicated underprediction] and slope) and discrimination (c-statistic). RESULTS: Overall, the IMPACT models overpredicted mortality (intercept -0.79 [95% CI -1.05 to -0.53], slope 1.37 [1.05-1.69]) and acceptably predicted unfavorable outcome (intercept 0.07 [-0.14 to 0.29], slope 1.19 [0.96-1.42]), with good discrimination (c-statistics 0.84 and 0.83, respectively). The CRASH models overpredicted mortality (intercept -1.06 [-1.36 to -0.75], slope 0.96 [0.79-1.14]) and unfavorable outcome (intercept -0.60 [-0.78 to -0.41], slope 1.20 [1.03-1.37]), with good discrimination (c-statistics 0.92 and 0.88, respectively). IMPACT overpredicted mortality and acceptably predicted unfavorable outcome in the severe and moderate TBI subgroups, with good discrimination (c-statistic ≥ 0.81). CRASH overpredicted mortality in the severe and moderate TBI subgroups and acceptably predicted mortality in the mild TBI subgroup, with good discrimination (c-statistic ≥ 0.86); unfavorable outcome was overpredicted in the severe and mild TBI subgroups with adequate discrimination (c-statistic ≥ 0.78), whereas calibration was nonlinear in the moderate TBI subgroup. In subjects ≥ 65 years of age, the models performed variably (IMPACT-mortality, intercept 0.28, slope 0.68, and c-statistic 0.68; CRASH-unfavorable outcome, intercept -0.97, slope 1.32, and c-statistic 0.88; nonlinear calibration for IMPACT-unfavorable outcome and CRASH-mortality). Model performance differences were observed across the top enrolling sites for mortality and unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The IMPACT and CRASH models adequately discriminated mortality and unfavorable outcome. Observed overestimations of mortality and unfavorable outcome underscore the need to update prognostic models to incorporate contemporary changes in TBI management and case-mix. Investigations to elucidate the relationships between increased survival, outcome, treatment intensity, and site-specific practices will be relevant to improve models in specific TBI subpopulations (e.g., older adults), which may benefit from the inclusion of blood-based biomarkers, neuroimaging features, and treatment data.

Impact of Intracranial Volume and Brain Volume on the Prognostic Value of Computed Tomography Perfusion Core Volume in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography perfusion (CTP)-estimated core volume is associated with functional outcomes in acute ischemic stroke. This relationship might differ among patients, depending on brain volume. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively included patients from the MR CLEAN Registry. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and intracranial volume (ICV) were automatically segmented on NCCT. We defined the proportion of the ICV and total brain volume (TBV) affected by the ischemic core as ICVcore and TBVcore. Associations between the core volume, ICVcore, TBVcore, and functional outcome are reported per interquartile range (IQR). We calculated the area under the curve (AUC) to assess diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: In 200 patients, the median core volume was 13 (5-41) mL. Median ICV and TBV were 1377 (1283-1456) mL and 1108 (1020-1197) mL. Median ICVcore and TBVcore were 0.9 (0.4-2.8)% and 1.7 (0.5-3.6)%. Core volume (acOR per IQR 0.48 [95%CI 0.33-0.69]), ICVcore (acOR per IQR 0.50 [95%CI 0.35-0.69]), and TBVcore (acOR per IQR 0.41 95%CI 0.33-0.67]) showed a lower likelihood of achieving improved functional outcomes after 90 days. The AUC was 0.80 for the prediction of functional independence at 90 days for the CTP-estimated core volume, the ICVcore, and the TBVcore. CONCLUSION: Correcting the CTP-estimated core volume for the intracranial or total brain volume did not improve the association with functional outcomes in patients who underwent EVT.

Time to Treatment With Intravenous Thrombolysis Before Thrombectomy and Functional Outcomes in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Meta-Analysis.

Importance: The benefit of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) for acute ischemic stroke declines with longer time from symptom onset, but it is not known whether a similar time dependency exists for IVT followed by thrombectomy. Objective: To determine whether the benefit associated with IVT plus thrombectomy vs thrombectomy alone decreases with treatment time from symptom onset. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual participant data meta-analysis from 6 randomized clinical trials comparing IVT plus thrombectomy vs thrombectomy alone. Enrollment was between January 2017 and July 2021 at 190 sites in 15 countries. All participants were eligible for IVT and thrombectomy and presented directly at thrombectomy-capable stroke centers (n = 2334). For this meta-analysis, only patients with an anterior circulation large-vessel occlusion were included (n = 2313). Exposure: Interval from stroke symptom onset to expected administration of IVT and treatment with IVT plus thrombectomy vs thrombectomy alone. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome analysis tested whether the association between the allocated treatment (IVT plus thrombectomy vs thrombectomy alone) and disability at 90 days (7-level modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score range, 0 [no symptoms] to 6 [death]; minimal clinically important difference for the rates of mRS scores of 0-2: 1.3%) varied with times from symptom onset to expected administration of IVT. Results: In 2313 participants (1160 in IVT plus thrombectomy group vs 1153 in thrombectomy alone group; median age, 71 [IQR, 62 to 78] years; 44.3% were female), the median time from symptom onset to expected administration of IVT was 2 hours 28 minutes (IQR, 1 hour 46 minutes to 3 hours 17 minutes). There was a statistically significant interaction between the time from symptom onset to expected administration of IVT and the association of allocated treatment with functional outcomes (ratio of adjusted common odds ratio [OR] per 1-hour delay, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.72 to 0.97], P = .02 for interaction). The benefit of IVT plus thrombectomy decreased with longer times from symptom onset to expected administration of IVT (adjusted common OR for a 1-step mRS score shift toward improvement, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.13 to 1.96] at 1 hour, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.49] at 2 hours, and 1.04 [95% CI, 0.88 to 1.23] at 3 hours). For a mRS score of 0, 1, or 2, the predicted absolute risk difference was 9% (95% CI, 3% to 16%) at 1 hour, 5% (95% CI, 1% to 9%) at 2 hours, and 1% (95% CI, -3% to 5%) at 3 hours. After 2 hours 20 minutes, the benefit associated with IVT plus thrombectomy was not statistically significant and the point estimate crossed the null association at 3 hours 14 minutes. Conclusions and Relevance: In patients presenting at thrombectomy-capable stroke centers, the benefit associated with IVT plus thrombectomy vs thrombectomy alone was time dependent and statistically significant only if the time from symptom onset to expected administration of IVT was short.

Between-hospital variation in indicators of quality of care: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to mitigate unwarranted variation in the quality of care require insight into the 'level' (eg, patient, physician, ward, hospital) at which observed variation exists. This systematic literature review aims to synthesise the results of studies that quantify the extent to which hospitals contribute to variation in quality indicator scores. METHODS: Embase, Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane and Google Scholar were systematically searched from 2010 to November 2023. We included studies that reported a measure of between-hospital variation in quality indicator scores relative to total variation, typically expressed as a variance partition coefficient (VPC). The results were analysed by disease category and quality indicator type. RESULTS: In total, 8373 studies were reviewed, of which 44 met the inclusion criteria. Casemix adjusted variation was studied for multiple disease categories using 144 indicators, divided over 5 types: intermediate clinical outcomes (n=81), final clinical outcomes (n=35), processes (n=10), patient-reported experiences (n=15) and patient-reported outcomes (n=3). In addition to an analysis of between-hospital variation, eight studies also reported physician-level variation (n=54 estimates). In general, variation that could be attributed to hospitals was limited (median VPC=3%, IQR=1%-9%). Between-hospital variation was highest for process indicators (17.4%, 10.8%-33.5%) and lowest for final clinical outcomes (1.4%, 0.6%-4.2%) and patient-reported outcomes (1.0%, 0.9%-1.5%). No clear pattern could be identified in the degree of between-hospital variation by disease category. Furthermore, the studies exhibited limited attention to the reliability of observed differences in indicator scores. CONCLUSION: Hospital-level variation in quality indicator scores is generally small relative to residual variation. However, meaningful variation between hospitals does exist for multiple indicators, especially for care processes which can be directly influenced by hospital policy. Quality improvement strategies are likely to generate more impact if preceded by level-specific and indicator-specific analyses of variation, and when absolute variation is also considered. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022315850.

Sex differences in clot, vessel and tissue characteristics in patients with a large vessel occlusion treated with endovascular thrombectomy.

INTRODUCTION: To improve our understanding of the relatively poor outcome after endovascular treatment (EVT) in women we assessed possible sex differences in baseline neuroimaging characteristics of acute ischemic stroke patients with large anterior vessel occlusion (LVO). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We included all consecutive patients from the MR CLEAN Registry who underwent EVT between 2014 and 2017. On baseline non-contrast CT and CT angiography, we assessed clot location and clot burden score (CBS), vessel characteristics (presence of atherosclerosis, tortuosity, size, and collateral status), and tissue characteristics with the Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score (ASPECTS). Radiological outcome was assessed with the extended thrombolysis in cerebral infarction score (eTICI) and functional outcome with the modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) at 90 days. Sex-differences were assessed with multivariable regression analyses with adjustments for possible confounders. RESULTS: 3180 patients were included (median age 72 years, 48% women). Clots in women were less often located in the intracranial internal carotid artery (ICA) (25%vs 28%, odds ratio (OR) 0.85;95% confidence interval: 0.73-1.00). CBS was similar between sexes (median 6, IQR 4-8). Intracranial (aOR 0.73;95% CI:0.62-0.87) and extracranial (aOR 0.64;95% CI:0.43-0.95) atherosclerosis was less prevalent in women. Vessel tortuosity was more frequent in women in the cervical ICA (aOR 1.89;95% CI:1.39-2.57) and women more often had severe elongation of the aortic arch (aOR 1.38;95% CI:1.00-1.91). ICA radius was smaller in women (2.3vs 2.5 mm, mean difference 0.22;95% CI:0.09-0.35) while M1 radius was essentially equal (1.6vs 1.7 mm, mean difference 0.09;95% CI:-0.02-0.21). Women had better collateral status (⩾50% filling in 62%vs 53% in men, aOR 1.48;95% CI:1.29-1.70). Finally, ASPECT scores were equal between women and men (median 9 in both sexes, IQR 8-10vs 9-10). Reperfusion rates were similar between women and men (acOR 0.94;95% CI:0.83-1.07). However, women less often reached functional independence than men (34%vs 46%, aOR 0.68;95% CI:0.53-0.86). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: On baseline imaging of this Dutch Registry, men and women with LVO mainly differ in vessel characteristics such as atherosclerotic burden, extracranial vessel tortuosity, and collateral status. These sex differences do not result in different reperfusion rates and are, therefore, not likely to explain the worse functional outcome in women after EVT.

Improving shared decision-making about cancer treatment through design-based data-driven decision-support tools and redesigning care paths: an overview of the 4D PICTURE project.

Background: Patients with cancer often have to make complex decisions about treatment, with the options varying in risk profiles and effects on survival and quality of life. Moreover, inefficient care paths make it hard for patients to participate in shared decision-making. Data-driven decision-support tools have the potential to empower patients, support personalized care, improve health outcomes and promote health equity. However, decision-support tools currently seldom consider quality of life or individual preferences, and their use in clinical practice remains limited, partly because they are not well integrated in patients' care paths. Aim and objectives: The central aim of the 4D PICTURE project is to redesign patients' care paths and develop and integrate evidence-based decision-support tools to improve decision-making processes in cancer care delivery. This article presents an overview of this international, interdisciplinary project. Design methods and analysis: In co-creation with patients and other stakeholders, we will develop data-driven decision-support tools for patients with breast cancer, prostate cancer and melanoma. We will support treatment decisions by using large, high-quality datasets with state-of-the-art prognostic algorithms. We will further develop a conversation tool, the Metaphor Menu, using text mining combined with citizen science techniques and linguistics, incorporating large datasets of patient experiences, values and preferences. We will further develop a promising methodology, MetroMapping, to redesign care paths. We will evaluate MetroMapping and these integrated decision-support tools, and ensure their sustainability using the Nonadoption, Abandonment, Scale-Up, Spread, and Sustainability (NASSS) framework. We will explore the generalizability of MetroMapping and the decision-support tools for other types of cancer and across other EU member states. Ethics: Through an embedded ethics approach, we will address social and ethical issues. Discussion: Improved care paths integrating comprehensive decision-support tools have the potential to empower patients, their significant others and healthcare providers in decision-making and improve outcomes. This project will strengthen health care at the system level by improving its resilience and efficiency.

Improving the cancer patient journey and respecting personal preferences: an overview of the 4D PICTURE project The 4D PICTURE project aims to help cancer patients, their families and healthcare providers better undertstand their options. It supports their treatment and care choices, at each stage of disease, by drawing on large amounts of evidence from different types of European data. The project involves experts from many different specialist areas who are based in nine European countries. The overall aim is to improve the cancer patient journey and ensure personal preferences are respected.

Personalized decision-making for aneurysm treatment of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: development and validation of a clinical prediction tool.

BACKGROUND: In patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage suitable for endovascular coiling and neurosurgical clip-reconstruction, the aneurysm treatment decision-making process could be improved by considering heterogeneity of treatment effect and durability of treatment. We aimed to develop and validate a tool to predict individualized treatment benefit of endovascular coiling compared to neurosurgical clip-reconstruction. METHODS: We used randomized data (International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial, n = 2143) to develop models to predict 2-month functional outcome and to predict time-to-rebleed-or-retreatment. We modeled for heterogeneity of treatment effect by adding interaction terms of treatment with prespecified predictors and with baseline risk of the outcome. We predicted outcome with both treatments and calculated absolute treatment benefit. We described the patient characteristics of patients with ≥ 5% point difference in the predicted probability of favorable functional outcome (modified Rankin Score 0-2) and of no rebleed or retreatment within 10 years. Model performance was expressed with the c-statistic and calibration plots. We performed bootstrapping and leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation and pooled cluster-specific c-statistics with random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: The pooled c-statistics were 0.72 (95% CI: 0.69-0.75) for the prediction of 2-month favorable functional outcome and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.63-0.71) for prediction of no rebleed or retreatment within 10 years. We found no significant interaction between predictors and treatment. The average predicted benefit in favorable functional outcome was 6% (95% CI: 3-10%) in favor of coiling, but 11% (95% CI: 9-13%) for no rebleed or retreatment in favor of clip-reconstruction. 134 patients (6%), young and in favorable clinical condition, had negligible functional outcome benefit of coiling but had a ≥ 5% point benefit of clip-reconstruction in terms of durability of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: We show that young patients in favorable clinical condition and without extensive vasospasm have a negligible benefit in functional outcome of endovascular coiling - compared to neurosurgical clip-reconstruction - while at the same time having a substantially lower probability of retreatment or rebleeding from neurosurgical clip-reconstruction - compared to endovascular coiling. The SHARP prediction tool ( https://sharpmodels.shinyapps.io/sharpmodels/ ) could support and incentivize a multidisciplinary discussion about aneurysm treatment decision-making by providing individualized treatment benefit estimates.

Cost-effectiveness of CT perfusion for the detection of large vessel occlusion acute ischemic stroke followed by endovascular treatment: a model-based health economic evaluation study.

OBJECTIVES: CT perfusion (CTP) has been suggested to increase the rate of large vessel occlusion (LVO) detection in patients suspected of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) if used in addition to a standard diagnostic imaging regime of CT angiography (CTA) and non-contrast CT (NCCT). The aim of this study was to estimate the costs and health effects of additional CTP for endovascular treatment (EVT)-eligible occlusion detection using model-based analyses. METHODS: In this Dutch, nationwide retrospective cohort study with model-based health economic evaluation, data from 701 EVT-treated patients with available CTP results were included (January 2018-March 2022; trialregister.nl:NL7974). We compared a cohort undergoing NCCT, CTA, and CTP (NCCT + CTA + CTP) with a generated counterfactual where NCCT and CTA (NCCT + CTA) was used for LVO detection. The NCCT + CTA strategy was simulated using diagnostic accuracy values and EVT effects from the literature. A Markov model was used to simulate 10-year follow-up. We adopted a healthcare payer perspective for costs in euros and health gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The primary outcome was the net monetary benefit (NMB) at a willingness to pay of €80,000; secondary outcomes were the difference between LVO detection strategies in QALYs (ΔQALY) and costs (ΔCosts) per LVO patient. RESULTS: We included 701 patients (median age: 72, IQR: [62-81]) years). Per LVO patient, CTP-based occlusion detection resulted in cost savings (ΔCosts median: € - 2671, IQR: [€ - 4721; € - 731]), a health gain (ΔQALY median: 0.073, IQR: [0.044; 0.104]), and a positive NMB (median: €8436, IQR: [5565; 11,876]) per LVO patient. CONCLUSION: CTP-based screening of suspected stroke patients for an endovascular treatment eligible large vessel occlusion was cost-effective. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Although CTP-based patient selection for endovascular treatment has been recently suggested to result in worse patient outcomes after ischemic stroke, an alternative CTP-based screening for endovascular treatable occlusions is cost-effective. KEY POINTS: • Using CT perfusion to detect an endovascular treatment-eligible occlusions resulted in a health gain and cost savings during 10 years of follow-up. • Depending on the screening costs related to the number of patients needed to image with CT perfusion, cost savings could be considerable (median: € - 3857, IQR: [€ - 5907; € - 1916] per patient). • As the gain in quality adjusted life years was most affected by the sensitivity of CT perfusion-based occlusion detection, additional studies for the diagnostic accuracy of CT perfusion for occlusion detection are required.

Costs and health effects of CT perfusion-based selection for endovascular thrombectomy within 6 hours of stroke onset: a model-based health economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Although CT perfusion (CTP) is often incorporated in acute stroke workflows, it remains largely unclear what the associated costs and health implications are in the long run of CTP-based patient selection for endovascular treatment (EVT) in patients presenting within 6 hours after symptom onset with a large vessel occlusion. METHODS: Patients with a large vessel occlusion were included from a Dutch nationwide cohort (n=703) if CTP imaging was performed before EVT within 6 hours after stroke onset. Simulated cost and health effects during 5 and 10 years follow-up were compared between CTP based patient selection for EVT and providing EVT to all patients. Outcome measures were the net monetary benefit at a willingness-to-pay of €80 000 per quality-adjusted life year, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio), difference in costs from a healthcare payer perspective (ΔCosts) and quality-adjusted life years (ΔQALY) per 1000 patients for 1000 model iterations as outcomes. RESULTS: Compared with treating all patients, CTP-based selection for EVT at the optimised ischaemic core volume (ICV≥110 mL) or core-penumbra mismatch ratio (MMR≤1.4) thresholds resulted in losses of health (median ΔQALYs for ICV≥110 mL: -3.3 (IQR: -5.9 to -1.1), for MMR≤1.4: 0.0 (IQR: -1.3 to 0.0)) with median ΔCosts for ICV≥110 mL of -€348 966 (IQR: -€712 406 to -€51 158) and for MMR≤1.4 of €266 513 (IQR: €229 403 to €380 110)) per 1000 patients. Sensitivity analyses did not yield any scenarios for CTP-based selection of patients for EVT that were cost-effective for improving health, including patients aged ≥80 years CONCLUSION: In EVT-eligible patients presenting within 6 hours after symptom onset, excluding patients based on CTP parameters was not cost-effective and could potentially harm patients.

Predicting outcome in acute stroke with large vessel occlusion-application and validation of MR PREDICTS in the ESCAPE-NA1 population.

BACKGROUND: Predicting outcome after endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke is challenging. We aim to investigate differences between predicted and observed outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with endovascular treatment and to evaluate the performance of a validated outcome prediction score. PATIENTS AND METHODS: MR PREDICTS is an outcome prediction tool based on a logistic regression model designed to predict the treatment benefit of endovascular treatment based on the MR CLEAN and HERMES populations. ESCAPE-NA1 is a randomized trial of nerinetide vs. placebo in patients with acute stroke and large vessel occlusion. We applied MR PREDICTS to patients in the control arm of ESCAPE-NA1. Model performance was assessed by calculating its discriminative ability and calibration. RESULTS: Overall, 556/1105 patients (50.3%) in the ESCAPE-NA1-trial were randomized to the control arm, 435/556 (78.2%) were treated within 6 h of symptom onset. Good outcome (modified Rankin scale 0-2) at 3 months was achieved in 275/435 patients (63.2%), the predicted probability of good outcome was 52.5%. Baseline characteristics were similar in the study and model derivation cohort except for age (ESCAPE-NA1: mean: 70 y vs. HERMES: 66 y), hypertension (72% vs. 57%), and collaterals (good collaterals, 15% vs. 44%). Compared to HERMES we observed higher rates of successful reperfusion (TICI 2b-3, ESCAPE-NA1: 87% vs. HERMES: 71%) and faster times from symptom onset to reperfusion (median: 201 min vs. 286 min). Model performance was good, indicated by a c-statistic of 0.76 (95%confidence interval: 0.71-0.81). CONCLUSION: Outcome-prediction using models created from HERMES data, based on information available in the emergency department underestimated the actual outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke and large vessel occlusion receiving endovascular treatment despite overall good model performance, which might be explained by differences in quality of and time to reperfusion. These findings underline the importance of timely and successful reperfusion for functional outcomes in acute stroke patients.

Prioritization of surgical patients during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond: A qualitative exploration of patients' perspectives.

INTRODUCTION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, prioritizing certain surgical patients became inevitable due to limited surgical capacity. This study aims to identify which factors patients value in priority setting, and to evaluate their perspective on a decision model for surgical prioritization. METHODS: We enacted a qualitative exploratory study and conducted semi-structured interviews with N = 15 patients. Vignettes were used as guidance. The interviews were transcribed and iteratively analyzed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: We unraveled three themes: 1) general attitude towards surgical prioritization: patients showed understanding for the difficult decisions to be made, but demanded greater transparency and objectivity; 2) patient-related factors that some participants considered should, or should not, influence the prioritization: age, physical functioning, cognitive functioning, behavior, waiting time, impact on survival and quality of life, emotional consequences, and resource usage; and 3) patients' perspective on a decision model: usage of such a model for prioritization decisions is favorable if the model is simple, uses trustworthy data, and its output is supervised by physicians. The model could also be used as a communication tool to explain prioritization dilemmas to patients. CONCLUSION: Support for the various factors and use of a decision model varied among patients. Therefore, it seems unrealistic to immediately incorporate these factors in decision models. Instead, this study calls for more research to identify feasible avenues and seek consensus.

Patient-relevant health outcomes for von Willebrand disease, platelet function disorders, and rare bleeding disorders: a Delphi study.

Background: To assess patient value, it is essential to regularly measure health outcomes that matter to patients. It is currently unknown which health outcomes are important for patients with autosomal inherited bleeding disorders. Objectives: This study aimed to assess which health outcomes are important for patients with autosomal inherited bleeding disorders, consisting of von Willebrand disease, platelet function disorders, and rare bleeding disorders, as seen from the patients', caregivers', and healthcare professionals' perspectives. Methods: Two panels, one consisting of patients and caregivers, and one consisting of healthcare professionals participated in a Delphi process. A list of 146 health outcomes was identified from the literature. During 3 rounds, both panels rated the importance of health outcomes on a 5-point Likert scale. A health outcome was considered important by a panel if it received a median score of 5 with an IQR of ≤1. Results: In total, 13 patients, 10 caregivers, and 19 healthcare professionals participated in the Delphi study. Both panels reached consensus on the importance of health outcomes related to bleeding episodes, life-threatening complications, and the intensity and impact of menstruation. Patients and caregivers additionally reached consensus on the importance of health outcomes related to menstruation and the impact of the bleeding disorder on their daily lives. Healthcare professionals reached consensus on the importance of health outcomes related to treatment, joint health, and pain. Conclusion: In this study, health outcomes were identified that should be considered when implementing value-based health care in the care of patients with autosomal inherited bleeding disorders.

Early surgery versus conservative treatment in patients with traumatic intracerebral hematoma: a CENTER-TBI study.

PURPOSE: Evidence regarding the effect of surgery in traumatic intracerebral hematoma (t-ICH) is limited and relies on the STITCH(Trauma) trial. This study is aimed at comparing the effectiveness of early surgery to conservative treatment in patients with a t-ICH. METHODS: In a prospective cohort, we included patients with a large t-ICH (< 48 h of injury). Primary outcome was the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) at 6 months, analyzed with multivariable proportional odds logistic regression. Subgroups included injury severity and isolated vs. non-isolated t-ICH. RESULTS: A total of 367 patients with a large t-ICH were included, of whom 160 received early surgery and 207 received conservative treatment. Patients receiving early surgery were younger (median age 54 vs. 58 years) and more severely injured (median Glasgow Coma Scale 7 vs. 10) compared to those treated conservatively. In the overall cohort, early surgery was not associated with better functional outcome (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.1, (95% CI, 0.6-1.7)) compared to conservative treatment. Early surgery was associated with better outcome for patients with moderate TBI and isolated t-ICH (AOR 1.5 (95% CI, 1.1-2.0); P value for interaction 0.71, and AOR 1.8 (95% CI, 1.3-2.5); P value for interaction 0.004). Conversely, in mild TBI and those with a smaller t-ICH (< 33 cc), conservative treatment was associated with better outcome (AOR 0.6 (95% CI, 0.4-0.9); P value for interaction 0.71, and AOR 0.8 (95% CI, 0.5-1.0); P value for interaction 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Early surgery in t-ICH might benefit those with moderate TBI and isolated t-ICH, comparable with results of the STITCH(Trauma) trial.