The Evidence for Excess Risk of Cancer and Non-Cancer Disease at Low Doses and Dose Rates.

The question of whether there are excess radiation-associated health risks at low dose is controversial. We present evidence of excess cancer risks in a number of (largely pediatrically or in utero exposed) groups exposed to low doses of radiation (<0.1 Gy). Moreover, the available data on biological mechanisms do not provide support for the idea of a low-dose threshold or hormesis for any of these endpoints. There are emerging data suggesting risks of cardiovascular disease and cataract at low doses, but this is less well established. This large body of evidence does not suggest and, indeed, is not statistically compatible with any very large threshold in dose (>10 mGy), or with possible beneficial effects from exposures. The presented data suggest that exposure to low-dose radiation causes excess cancer risks and quite possibly also excess risks of various non-cancer endpoints.

THYROID SCREENING AND RELIABILITY OF RADIATION THYROID DOSES FOR THE BELARUSIAN IN UTERO COHORT.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the status and results of thyroid disease screening and assessment of reliability of radiationthyroid doses in the Belarusian in utero cohort of 2,965 individuals exposed to Chernobyl (Chornobyl) fallout. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thyroid screening examinations are currently underway including thyroid palpation by anendocrinologist, ultrasonographic examination by an ultrasonographer and analysis of blood samples for diagnosisof hypo- and hyperthyroidism, autoimmune thyroiditis, thyroid function tests (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH],thyroxine [T4], thyroid peroxidase antibody [anti-TPO], and thyroglobulin antibodies [anti-TG]). Reliability of (i)information from 780 pairs of questionnaires obtained during the first and second interviews of the mothers and (ii)thyroid doses, which were calculated for the cohort members using this information, is evaluated. RESULTS: As of 15 August 2021, 1,267 in utero exposed study subjects had been screened. A single thyroid nodule wasdiagnosed in 167 persons (13.2 % of the total) and multiple thyroid nodules in 101 persons (8.0 %): 189 (14.9 %)persons had nodules detected for the first time at the screening while 79 (6.2 %) persons had nodules detected pre-viously (pre-screening nodules). Fifty-nine out of 268 subjects (22.0 %) with a suspicious thyroid nodule werereferred to fine needle aspiration biopsy, and among them 33 (55.9 %) were biopsied. Reasonable agreement wasobserved for modelqbased doses calculated for the Belarusian in utero cohort members using data from the two inter-views (Spearman's rank-correlation coefficient rs = 0.74, p < 0.001), while measurementqbased doses yielded almost per-fect agreement (rs = 0.99, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: During the thyroid screening, at least one thyroid nodule was identified in 268 of 1,267 (21.2 %) inutero exposed cohort members. Seven thyroid cancer cases were identified in the cohort, including 5 pre-screeningcases and 2 cases detected during the screening. Ongoing research on this unique cohort will provide importantinformation on adverse health effects following prenatal and postnatal exposure to radioiodine and radiocesium iso-topes, for which available epidemiological data are scant.

Modelling the bimodal distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates in Great Britain.

Gamma radiation from naturally occurring sources (including directly ionizing cosmic-rays) is a major component of background radiation. An understanding of the magnitude and variation of doses from these sources is important, and the ability to predict them is required for epidemiological studies. In the present paper, indoor measurements of naturally occurring gamma-rays at representative locations in Great Britain are summarized. It is shown that, although the individual measurement data appear unimodal, the distribution of gamma-ray dose-rates when averaged over relatively small areas, which probably better represents the underlying distribution with inter-house variation reduced, appears bimodal. The dose-rate distributions predicted by three empirical and geostatistical models are also bimodal and compatible with the distributions of the areally averaged dose-rates. The distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates in the UK is compared with those in other countries, which also tend to appear bimodal (or possibly multimodal). The variation of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates with geology, socio-economic status of the area, building type, and period of construction are explored. The factors affecting indoor dose-rates from background gamma radiation are complex and frequently intertwined, but geology, period of construction, and socio-economic status are influential; the first is potentially most influential, perhaps, because it can be used as a general proxy for local building materials. Various statistical models are tested for predicting indoor gamma-ray dose-rates at unmeasured locations. Significant improvements over previous modelling are reported. The dose-rate estimates generated by these models reflect the imputed underlying distribution of dose-rates and provide acceptable predictions at geographical locations without measurements.

Evidence for dose and dose rate effects in human and animal radiation studies.

For stochastic effects such as cancer, linear-quadratic models of dose are often used to extrapolate from the experience of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors to estimate risks from low doses and low dose rates. The low dose extrapolation factor (LDEF), which consists of the ratio of the low dose slope (as derived via fitting a linear-quadratic model) to the slope of the straight line fitted to a specific dose range, is used to derive the degree of overestimation (if LDEF > 1) or underestimation (if LDEF < 1) of low dose risk by linear extrapolation from effects at higher doses. Likewise, a dose rate extrapolation factor (DREF) can be defined, consisting of the ratio of the low dose slopes at high and low dose rates. This paper reviews a variety of human and animal data for cancer and non-cancer endpoints to assess evidence for curvature in the dose response (i.e. LDEF) and modifications of the dose response by dose rate (i.e. DREF). The JANUS mouse data imply that LDEF is approximately 0.2-0.8 and DREF is approximately 1.2-2.3 for many tumours following gamma exposure, with corresponding figures of approximately 0.1-0.9 and 0.0-0.2 following neutron exposure. This paper also cursorily reviews human data which allow direct estimates of low dose and low dose rate risk.

Buccal mucosa micronuclei counts in relation to exposure to low dose-rate radiation from the Chornobyl nuclear accident and other medical and occupational radiation exposures.

BACKGROUND: Ionizing radiation is a well-known carcinogen. Chromosome aberrations, and in particular micronuclei represent an early biological predictor of cancer risk. There are well-documented associations of micronuclei with ionizing radiation dose in some radiation-exposed groups, although not all. That associations are not seen in all radiation-exposed groups may be because cells with micronuclei will not generally pass through mitosis, so that radiation-induced micronuclei decay, generally within a few years after exposure. METHODS: Buccal samples from a group of 111 male workers in Ukraine exposed to ionizing radiation during the cleanup activities at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant were studied. Samples were taken between 12 and 18 years after their last radiation exposure from the Chornobyl cleanup. The frequency of binucleated micronuclei was analyzed in relation to estimated bone marrow dose from the cleanup activities along with a number of environmental/occupational risk factors using Poisson regression adjusted for overdispersion. RESULTS: Among the 105 persons without a previous cancer diagnosis, the mean Chornobyl-related dose was 59.5 mSv (range 0-748.4 mSv). There was a borderline significant increase in micronuclei frequency among those reporting work as an industrial radiographer compared with all others, with a relative risk of 6.19 (95% CI 0.90, 31.08, 2-sided p = 0.0729), although this was based on a single person. There was a borderline significant positive radiation dose response for micronuclei frequency with increase in micronuclei per 1000 scored cells per Gy of 3.03 (95% CI -0.78, 7.65, 2-sided p = 0.1170), and a borderline significant reduction of excess relative MN prevalence with increasing time since last exposure (p = 0.0949). There was a significant (p = 0.0388) reduction in MN prevalence associated with bone X-ray exposure, but no significant trend (p = 0.3845) of MN prevalence with numbers of bone X-ray procedures. CONCLUSIONS: There are indications of increasing trends of micronuclei prevalence with Chornobyl-cleanup-associated dose, and indications of reduction in radiation-associated excess prevalence of micronuclei with time after exposure. There are also indications of substantially increased micronuclei associated with work as an industrial radiographer. This analysis adds to the understanding of the long-term effects of low-dose radiation exposures on relevant cellular structures and methods appropriate for long-term radiation biodosimetry.

Breast cancer risk and protracted low-to-moderate dose occupational radiation exposure in the US Radiologic Technologists Cohort, 1983-2008.

BACKGROUND: Although high-dose ionising radiation is associated with increased breast cancer risks, the association with protracted low-dose-rate exposures remains unclear. The US Radiologic Technologist study provides an opportunity to examine the association between low-to-moderate dose radiation and breast cancer incidence and mortality. METHODS: One thousand nine hundred and twenty-two self-reported first primary cancers were diagnosed during 1983-2005 among 66 915 female technologists, and 586 breast cancer deaths occurred during 1983-2008 among 83 538 female cohort members. Occupational breast dose estimates were based on work histories, historical data, and, after the mid-1970s, individual film badge measurements. Excess relative risks were estimated using Poisson regression with birth cohort stratification and adjustment for menopause, reproductive history, and other risk factors. RESULTS: Higher doses were associated with increased breast cancer incidence, with an excess relative risk at 100 mGy of 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.005 to 0.19). Associations were strongest for technologists born before 1930 (excess relative risk at 100 mGy=0.16; 95% CI: 0.03-0.39) with similar patterns for mortality among technologists born before 1930. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational radiation to the breast was positively associated with breast cancer risk. The risk was more pronounced for women born before 1930 who began working before 1950 when mean annual doses (37 mGy) were considerably higher than in later years (1.3 mGy). However, because of the uncertainties and possible systematic errors in the occupational dose estimates before 1960, these findings should be treated with caution.

Spatial prediction of naturally occurring gamma radiation in Great Britain.

Gamma radiation from natural sources is an important component of background radiation, and correlates with childhood leukaemia risk in Great Britain. The geographic variation of indoor gamma radiation dose-rates in Great Britain is explored using various geo-statistical methods. A multi-resolution Gaussian-process model using radial basis functions with 2, 4, or 8 components, is fitted via maximum likelihood, and a non-spatial model is also used, fitted by ordinary least squares. Because of the dataset size (N = 10,199), four other parametric spatial models are fitted by variogram-fitting. A randomly selected 70:30 split is used for fitting:validation. The models are evaluated based on their predictive performance as measured by Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, as well as Pearson correlation and rank-correlation between predicted and actual dose-rates. Each of the four parametric models (Matérn, Gaussian, Bessel, Spherical) fitted the empirical variogram well, and yielded similar predictions at >50 km separation, although with more substantial differences in predicted variograms at <50 km. The multi-resolution Gaussian-process model with 8 components had the best predictive accuracy among the models considered. The Spherical, Bessel, Matérn, Gaussian and ordinary least squares models had progressively worse predictive performance, the ordinary least squares model being particularly poor in this respect.

Dose-rate effects in radiation biology and radiation protection.

Quantification of biological effects (cancer, other diseases, and cell damage) associated with exposure to ionising radiation has been a major issue for the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) since its foundation in 1928. While there is a wealth of information on the effects on human health for whole-body doses above approximately 100 mGy, the effects associated with doses below 100 mGy are still being investigated and debated intensively. The current radiological protection approach, proposed by ICRP for workers and the public, is largely based on risks obtained from high-dose and high-dose-rate studies, such as the Japanese Life Span Study on atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficients obtained from these studies can be reduced by the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) to account for the assumed lower effectiveness of low-dose and low-dose-rate exposures. The 2007 ICRP Recommendations continue to propose a value of 2 for DDREF, while other international organisations suggest either application of different values or abandonment of the factor. This paper summarises the current status of discussions, and highlights issues that are relevant to reassessing the magnitude and application of DDREF.

Levels of naturally occurring gamma radiation measured in British homes and their prediction in particular residences.

Gamma radiation from natural sources (including directly ionising cosmic rays) is an important component of background radiation. In the present paper, indoor measurements of naturally occurring gamma rays that were undertaken as part of the UK Childhood Cancer Study are summarised, and it is shown that these are broadly compatible with an earlier UK National Survey. The distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose rates in Great Britain is approximately normal with mean 96 nGy/h and standard deviation 23 nGy/h. Directly ionising cosmic rays contribute about one-third of the total. The expanded dataset allows a more detailed description than previously of indoor gamma-ray exposures and in particular their geographical variation. Various strategies for predicting indoor natural background gamma-ray dose rates were explored. In the first of these, a geostatistical model was fitted, which assumes an underlying geologically determined spatial variation, superimposed on which is a Gaussian stochastic process with Matérn correlation structure that models the observed tendency of dose rates in neighbouring houses to correlate. In the second approach, a number of dose-rate interpolation measures were first derived, based on averages over geologically or administratively defined areas or using distance-weighted averages of measurements at nearest-neighbour points. Linear regression was then used to derive an optimal linear combination of these interpolation measures. The predictive performances of the two models were compared via cross-validation, using a randomly selected 70 % of the data to fit the models and the remaining 30 % to test them. The mean square error (MSE) of the linear-regression model was lower than that of the Gaussian-Matérn model (MSE 378 and 411, respectively). The predictive performance of the two candidate models was also evaluated via simulation; the OLS model performs significantly better than the Gaussian-Matérn model.

Residential mobility and associated factors in relation to the assessment of exposure to naturally occurring radiation in studies of childhood cancer.

Migration, that is the study subjects moving from one residential address to another, is a complication for epidemiological studies where exposures to the agent of interest depend on place of residence [corrected]. In this paper we explore migration in cases from a large British case-control study of childhood cancer and natural background radiation. We find that 44% of cases had not moved house between birth and diagnosis, and about two-thirds were living within 2 km of their residence at birth. The estimated dose at the diagnosis address was strongly correlated with that at the birth address, suggesting that use of just the birth address in this case-control study does not lead to serious bias in risk estimates. We also review other individual-based studies of naturally occurring radiation, with particular emphasis on those from Great Britain. Interview-based case-control and cohort studies can potentially establish full residential histories for study subjects and make direct measurements of radiation levels in the dwellings in question. However, in practice, because of study size and difficulties in obtaining adequate response rates, interview-based studies generally do not use full residential histories, and a substantial proportion of dose estimates often derive from models rather than direct measurements. More seriously, problems of incomplete response may lead to bias, not just to loss of power. Record-based case-control studies, which do not require direct contact with study subjects, avoid such problems, but at the expense of having only model-based exposure estimates that use databases of measurements.

Breast cancer risk after radiotherapy for heritable and non-heritable retinoblastoma: a US-UK study.

BACKGROUND: Retinoblastoma is a rare childhood eye cancer caused by germline or somatic mutations in the RB1 gene. Previous studies observed elevated breast cancer risk among retinoblastoma survivors. However, there has been no research on breast cancer risk in relation to radiation (primarily scatter radiation from the primary treatment) and genetic susceptibility of retinoblastoma survivors. METHODS: Two groups of retinoblastoma survivors from the US and UK were selected, and breast cancer risk analysed using a case-control methodology, nesting within the respective cohorts, matching on heritability (that is to say, having bilateral retinoblastoma or being unilateral cases with at least one relative with retinoblastoma), and using exact statistical methods. There were a total of 31 cases and 77 controls. RESULTS: Overall there was no significant variation of breast cancer risk with dose (P>0.5). However, there was a pronounced and significant (P=0.047) increase in the risk of breast cancer with increasing radiation dose for non-heritable retinoblastoma patients and a slight and borderline significant (P=0.072) decrease in risk of breast cancer with increasing radiation dose for heritable retinoblastoma patients, implying significant (P=0.024) heterogeneity in radiation risk between the heritable and non-heritable retinoblastoma groups; this was unaffected by the blindness status. There was no significant effect of any type of alkylating-agent chemotherapy on breast cancer risk (P>0.5). CONCLUSIONS: There is significant radiation-related risk of breast cancer for non-heritable retinoblastoma survivors but no excess risk for heritable retinoblastoma survivors, and no significant risk overall. However, these results are based on very small numbers of cases; therefore, they must be interpreted with caution.

A record-based case-control study of natural background radiation and the incidence of childhood leukaemia and other cancers in Great Britain during 1980-2006.

We conducted a large record-based case-control study testing associations between childhood cancer and natural background radiation. Cases (27,447) born and diagnosed in Great Britain during 1980-2006 and matched cancer-free controls (36,793) were from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours. Radiation exposures were estimated for mother's residence at the child's birth from national databases, using the County District mean for gamma rays, and a predictive map based on domestic measurements grouped by geological boundaries for radon. There was 12% excess relative risk (ERR) (95% CI 3, 22; two-sided P=0.01) of childhood leukaemia per millisievert of cumulative red bone marrow dose from gamma radiation; the analogous association for radon was not significant, ERR 3% (95% CI -4, 11; P=0.35). Associations for other childhood cancers were not significant for either exposure. Excess risk was insensitive to adjustment for measures of socio-economic status. The statistically significant leukaemia risk reported in this reasonably powered study (power ~50%) is consistent with high-dose rate predictions. Substantial bias is unlikely, and we cannot identify mechanisms by which confounding might plausibly account for the association, which we regard as likely to be causal. The study supports the extrapolation of high-dose rate risk models to protracted exposures at natural background exposure levels.

Mobile phone use and glioma risk: comparison of epidemiological study results with incidence trends in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: In view of mobile phone exposure being classified as a possible human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), we determined the compatibility of two recent reports of glioma risk (forming the basis of the IARC's classification) with observed incidence trends in the United States. DESIGN: Comparison of observed rates with projected rates of glioma incidence for 1997-2008. We estimated projected rates by combining relative risks reported in the 2010 Interphone study and a 2011 Swedish study by Hardell and colleagues with rates adjusted for age, registry, and sex; data for mobile phone use; and various latency periods. SETTING: US population based data for glioma incidence in 1992-2008, from 12 registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) programme (Atlanta, Detroit, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose-Monterey, Seattle, rural Georgia, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, New Mexico, and Utah). PARTICIPANTS: Data for 24,813 non-Hispanic white people diagnosed with glioma at age 18 years or older. RESULTS: Age specific incidence rates of glioma remained generally constant in 1992-2008 (-0.02% change per year, 95% confidence interval -0.28% to 0.25%), a period coinciding with a substantial increase in mobile phone use from close to 0% to almost 100% of the US population. If phone use was associated with glioma risk, we expected glioma incidence rates to be higher than those observed, even with a latency period of 10 years and low relative risks (1.5). Based on relative risks of glioma by tumour latency and cumulative hours of phone use in the Swedish study, predicted rates should have been at least 40% higher than observed rates in 2008. However, predicted glioma rates based on the small proportion of highly exposed people in the Interphone study could be consistent with the observed data. Results remained valid if we used either non-regular users or low users of mobile phones as the baseline category, and if we constrained relative risks to be more than 1. CONCLUSIONS: Raised risks of glioma with mobile phone use, as reported by one (Swedish) study forming the basis of the IARC's re-evaluation of mobile phone exposure, are not consistent with observed incidence trends in US population data, although the US data could be consistent with the modest excess risks in the Interphone study.

Low-dose radiation exposure and atherosclerosis in ApoE⁻/⁻ mice.

The hypothesis that single low-dose exposures (0.025-0.5 Gy) to low-LET radiation given at either high (about 150 mGy/min) or low (1 mGy/min) dose rate would promote aortic atherosclerosis was tested in female C57BL/6J mice genetically predisposed to this disease (ApoE⁻/⁻). Mice were exposed either at an early stage of disease (2 months of age) and examined 3 or 6 months later or at a late stage of disease (8 months of age) and examined 2 or 4 months later. Changes in aortic lesion frequency, size and severity as well as total serum cholesterol levels and the uptake of lesion lipids by lesion-associated macrophages were assessed. Statistically significant changes in each of these measures were observed, depending on dose, dose rate and disease stage. In all cases, the results were distinctly non-linear with dose, with maximum effects tending to occur at 25 or 50 mGy. In general, low doses given at low dose rate during either early- or late-stage disease were protective, slowing the progression of the disease by one or more of these measures. Most effects appeared and persisted for months after the single exposures, but some were ultimately transitory. In contrast to exposure at low dose rate, high-dose-rate exposure during early-stage disease produced both protective and detrimental effects, suggesting that low doses may influence this disease by more than one mechanism and that dose rate is an important parameter. These results contrast with the known, generally detrimental effects of high doses on the progression of this disease in the same mice and in humans, suggesting that a linear extrapolation of the known increased risk from high doses to low doses is not appropriate.

The statistical power of epidemiological studies analyzing the relationship between exposure to ionizing radiation and cancer, with special reference to childhood leukemia and natural background radiation.

The etiology of childhood leukemia remains generally unknown, although risk models based on the Japanese A-bomb survivors imply that the dose accumulated from protracted exposure to low-level natural background ionizing radiation materially raises the risk of leukemia in children. In this paper a novel Monte Carlo score-test methodology is used to assess the statistical power of cohort, ecological and case-control study designs, using the linear low-dose part of the BEIR V model derived from the Japanese data. With 10 (or 20) years of follow-up of childhood leukemias in Great Britain, giving about 4600 (or 9200) cases, under an individual-based cohort design there is 67.9% (or 90.9%) chance of detecting an excess (at 5% significance level, one-sided test); little difference is made by extreme heterogeneity in risk. For an ecological design these figures reduce to 57.9% (or 83.2%). Case-control studies with five controls per case achieve much of the power of a cohort design, 61.1% (or 86.0%). However, participation bias may seriously affect studies that require individual consent, and area-based studies are subject to severe interpretational problems. For this reason register-based studies, in particular those that make use of predicted doses that avoid the need for interviews, have considerable advantages. We argue that previous studies have been underpowered (all have power <80%), and some are also subject to unquantifiable biases and confounding. Sufficiently large studies should be capable of detecting the predicted risk attributable to natural background radiation.

Do non-targeted effects increase or decrease low dose risk in relation to the linear-non-threshold (LNT) model?

In this paper we review the evidence for departure from linearity for malignant and non-malignant disease and in the light of this assess likely mechanisms, and in particular the potential role for non-targeted effects. Excess cancer risks observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in many medically and occupationally exposed groups exposed at low or moderate doses are generally statistically compatible. For most cancer sites the dose-response in these groups is compatible with linearity over the range observed. The available data on biological mechanisms do not provide general support for the idea of a low dose threshold or hormesis. This large body of evidence does not suggest, indeed is not statistically compatible with, any very large threshold in dose for cancer, or with possible hormetic effects, and there is little evidence of the sorts of non-linearity in response implied by non-DNA-targeted effects. There are also excess risks of various types of non-malignant disease in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in other groups. In particular, elevated risks of cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and digestive disease are observed in the A-bomb data. In contrast with cancer, there is much less consistency in the patterns of risk between the various exposed groups; for example, radiation-associated respiratory and digestive diseases have not been seen in these other (non-A-bomb) groups. Cardiovascular risks have been seen in many exposed populations, particularly in medically exposed groups, but in contrast with cancer there is much less consistency in risk between studies: risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies vary over at least two orders of magnitude, possibly a result of confounding and effect modification by well known (but unobserved) risk factors. In the absence of a convincing mechanistic explanation of epidemiological evidence that is, at present, less than persuasive, a cause-and-effect interpretation of the reported statistical associations for cardiovascular disease is unreliable but cannot be excluded. Inflammatory processes are the most likely mechanism by which radiation could modify the atherosclerotic disease process. If there is to be modification by low doses of ionizing radiation of cardiovascular disease through this mechanism, a role for non-DNA-targeted effects cannot be excluded.

Review and meta-analysis of epidemiological associations between low/moderate doses of ionizing radiation and circulatory disease risks, and their possible mechanisms.

Although the link between high doses of ionizing radiation and damage to the heart and coronary arteries has been well established for some time, the association between lower-dose exposures and late occurring cardiovascular disease has only recently begun to emerge, and is still controversial. In this paper, we extend an earlier systematic review by Little et al. on the epidemiological evidence for associations between low and moderate doses of ionizing radiation exposure and late occurring blood circulatory system disease. Excess relative risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies vary over at least two orders of magnitude, possibly a result of confounding and effect modification by well-known (but unobserved) risk factors, and there is statistically significant (p < 0.00001) heterogeneity between the risks. This heterogeneity is reduced, but remains significant, if adjustments are made for the effects of fractionated delivery or if there is stratification by endpoint (cardiovascular disease vs. stroke, morbidity vs. mortality). One possible biological mechanism is damage to endothelial cells and subsequent induction of an inflammatory response, although it seems unlikely that this would extend to low-dose and low-dose-rate exposure. A recent paper of Little et al. proposed an arguably more plausible mechanism for fractionated low-dose effects, based on monocyte cell killing in the intima. Although the predictions of the model are consistent with the epidemiological data, the experimental predictions made have yet to be tested. Further epidemiological and biological evidence will allow a firmer conclusion to be drawn.