An app-based ecological momentary assessment of undergraduate student mental Health during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada (Smart Healthy Campus Version 2.0): Longitudinal study.

This paper presents results from the Smart Healthy Campus 2.0 study/smartphone app, developed and used to collect mental health-related lifestyle data from 86 Canadian undergraduates January-August 2021. Objectives of the study were to 1) address the absence of longitudinal mental health overview and lifestyle-related data from Canadian undergraduate students, and 2) to identify associations between these self-reported mental health overviews (questionnaires) and lifestyle-related measures (from smartphone digital measures). This was a longitudinal repeat measures study conducted over 40 weeks. A 9-item mental health questionnaire was accessible once daily in the app. Two variants of this mental health questionnaire existed; the first was a weekly variant, available each Monday or until a participant responded during the week. The second was a daily variant available after the weekly variant. 6518 digital measure samples and 1722 questionnaire responses were collected. Mixed models were fit for responses to the two questionnaire variants and 12 phone digital measures (e.g. GPS, step counts). The daily questionnaire had positive associations with floors walked, installed apps, and campus proximity, while having negative associations with uptime, and daily calendar events. Daily depression had a positive association with uptime. Daily resilience appeared to have a slight positive association with campus proximity. The weekly questionnaire variant had positive associations with device idling and installed apps, and negative associations with floors walked, calendar events, and campus proximity. Physical activity, weekly, had a negative association with uptime, and a positive association with calendar events and device idling. These lifestyle indicators that associated with student mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic suggest directions for new mental health-related interventions (digital or otherwise) and further efforts in mental health surveillance under comparable circumstances.

DRL-GAN: A Hybrid Approach for Binary and Multiclass Network Intrusion Detection.

Our increasingly connected world continues to face an ever-growing number of network-based attacks. An Intrusion Detection System (IDS) is an essential security technology used for detecting these attacks. Although numerous Machine Learning-based IDSs have been proposed for the detection of malicious network traffic, the majority have difficulty properly detecting and classifying the more uncommon attack types. In this paper, we implement a novel hybrid technique using synthetic data produced by a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to use as input for training a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) model. Our GAN model is trained on the NSL-KDD dataset, a publicly available collection of labeled network traffic data specifically designed to support the evaluation and benchmarking of IDSs. Ultimately, our findings demonstrate that training the DRL model on synthetic datasets generated by specific GAN models can result in better performance in correctly classifying minority classes over training on the true imbalanced dataset.

Factors Influencing Admission Decisions in Skilled Nursing Facilities: Retrospective Quantitative Study.

BACKGROUND: Occupancy rates within skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) in the United States have reached a record low. Understanding drivers of occupancy, including admission decisions, is critical for assessing the recovery of the long-term care sector as a whole. We provide the first comprehensive analysis of financial, clinical, and operational factors that impact whether a patient referral to an SNF is accepted or denied, using a large health informatics database. OBJECTIVE: Our key objectives were to describe the distribution of referrals sent to SNFs in terms of key referral- and facility-level features; analyze key financial, clinical, and operational variables and their relationship to admission decisions; and identify the key potential reasons behind referral decisions in the context of learning health systems. METHODS: We extracted and cleaned referral data from 627 SNFs from January 2020 to March 2022, including information on SNF daily operations (occupancy and nursing hours), referral-level factors (insurance type and primary diagnosis), and facility-level factors (overall 5-star rating and urban versus rural status). We computed descriptive statistics and applied regression modeling to identify and describe the relationships between these factors and referral decisions, considering them individually and controlling for other factors to understand their impact on the decision-making process. RESULTS: When analyzing daily operation values, no significant relationship between SNF occupancy or nursing hours and referral acceptance was observed (P>.05). By analyzing referral-level factors, we found that the primary diagnosis category and insurance type of the patient were significantly related to referral acceptance (P<.05). Referrals with primary diagnoses within the category "Diseases of the Musculoskeletal System" are least often denied whereas those with diagnoses within the "Mental Illness" category are most often denied (compared with other diagnosis categories). Furthermore, private insurance holders are least often denied whereas "medicaid" holders are most often denied (compared with other insurance types). When analyzing facility-level factors, we found that the overall 5-star rating and urban versus rural status of an SNF are significantly related to referral acceptance (P<.05). We found a positive but nonmonotonic relationship between the 5-star rating and referral acceptance rates, with the highest acceptance rates found among 5-star facilities. In addition, we found that SNFs in urban areas have lower acceptance rates than their rural counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: While many factors may influence a referral acceptance, care challenges associated with individual diagnoses and financial challenges associated with different remuneration types were found to be the strongest drivers. Understanding these drivers is essential in being more intentional in the process of accepting or denying referrals. We have interpreted our results using an adaptive leadership framework and suggested how SNFs can be more purposeful with their decisions while striving to achieve appropriate occupancy levels in ways that meet their goals and patients' needs.

Perceptions of Artificial Intelligence Use in Primary Care: A Qualitative Study with Providers and Staff of Ontario Community Health Centres.

PURPOSE: To understand staff and health care providers' views on potential use of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven tools to help care for patients within a primary care setting. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative descriptive study using individual semistructured interviews. As part of province-wide Learning Health Organization, Community Health Centres (CHCs) are a community-governed, team-based delivery model providing primary care for people who experience marginalization in Ontario, Canada. CHC health care providers and staff were invited to participate. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. We performed a thematic analysis using a team approach. RESULTS: We interviewed 27 participants across 6 CHCs. Participants lacked in-depth knowledge about AI. Trust was essential to acceptance of AI; people need to be receptive to using AI and feel confident that the information is accurate. We identified internal influences of AI acceptance, including ease of use and complementing clinical judgment rather than replacing it. External influences included privacy, liability, and financial considerations. Participants felt AI could improve patient care and help prevent burnout for providers; however, there were concerns about the impact on the patient-provider relationship. CONCLUSIONS: The information gained in this study can be used for future research, development, and integration of AI technology.

Application of a novel index for understanding vascular health following pharmacological intervention in a pre-clinical model of metabolic disease.

While a thorough understanding of microvascular function in health and how it becomes compromised with progression of disease risk is critical for developing effective therapeutic interventions, our ability to accurately assess the beneficial impact of pharmacological interventions to improve outcomes is vital. Here we introduce a novel Vascular Health Index (VHI) that allows for simultaneous assessment of changes to vascular reactivity/endothelial function, vascular wall mechanics and microvessel density within cerebral and skeletal muscle vascular networks with progression of metabolic disease in obese Zucker rats (OZR); under control conditions and following pharmacological interventions of clinical relevance. Outcomes are compared to "healthy" conditions in lean Zucker rats. We detail the calculation of vascular health index, full assessments of validity, and describe progressive changes to vascular health index over the development of metabolic disease in obese Zucker rats. Further, we detail the improvement to cerebral and skeletal muscle vascular health index following chronic treatment of obese Zucker rats with anti-hypertensive (15%-52% for skeletal muscle vascular health index; 12%-48% for cerebral vascular health index; p < 0.05 for both), anti-dyslipidemic (13%-48% for skeletal muscle vascular health index; p < 0.05), anti-diabetic (12%-32% for cerebral vascular health index; p < 0.05) and anti-oxidant/inflammation (41%-64% for skeletal muscle vascular health index; 29%-42% for cerebral vascular health index; p < 0.05 for both) drugs. The results present the effectiveness of mechanistically diverse interventions to improve cerebral or skeletal muscle vascular health index in obese Zucker rats and provide insight into the superiority of some pharmacological agents despite similar effectiveness in terms of impact on intended targets. In addition, we demonstrate the utility of including a wider, more integrative approach to the study of microvasculopathy under settings of elevated disease risk and following pharmacological intervention. A major benefit of integrating vascular health index is an increased understanding of the development, timing and efficacy of interventions through greater insight into integrated microvascular function in combination with individual, higher resolution metrics.

A novel vascular health index: Using data analytics and population health to facilitate mechanistic modeling of microvascular status.

The study of vascular function across conditions has been an intensive area of investigation for many years. While these efforts have revealed many factors contributing to vascular health, challenges remain for integrating results across research groups, animal models, and experimental conditions to understand integrated vascular function. As such, the insights attained in clinical/population research from linking datasets, have not been fully realized in the basic sciences, thus frustrating advanced analytics and complex modeling. To achieve comparable advances, we must address the conceptual challenge of defining/measuring integrated vascular function and the technical challenge of combining data across conditions, models, and groups. Here, we describe an approach to establish and validate a composite metric of vascular function by comparing parameters of vascular function in metabolic disease (the obese Zucker rat) to the same parameters in age-matched, "healthy" conditions, resulting in a common outcome measure which we term the vascular health index (VHI). VHI allows for the integration of datasets, thus expanding sample size and permitting advanced modeling to gain insight into the development of peripheral and cerebral vascular dysfunction. Markers of vascular reactivity, vascular wall mechanics, and microvascular network density are integrated in the VHI. We provide a detailed presentation of the development of the VHI and provide multiple measures to assess face, content, criterion, and discriminant validity of the metric. Our results demonstrate how the VHI captures multiple indices of dysfunction in the skeletal muscle and cerebral vasculature with metabolic disease and provide context for an integrated understanding of vascular health under challenged conditions.

Is primary health care ready for artificial intelligence? What do primary health care stakeholders say?

BACKGROUND: Effective deployment of AI tools in primary health care requires the engagement of practitioners in the development and testing of these tools, and a match between the resulting AI tools and clinical/system needs in primary health care. To set the stage for these developments, we must gain a more in-depth understanding of the views of practitioners and decision-makers about the use of AI in primary health care. The objective of this study was to identify key issues regarding the use of AI tools in primary health care by exploring the views of primary health care and digital health stakeholders. METHODS: This study utilized a descriptive qualitative approach, including thematic data analysis. Fourteen in-depth interviews were conducted with primary health care and digital health stakeholders in Ontario. NVivo software was utilized in the coding of the interviews. RESULTS: Five main interconnected themes emerged: (1) Mismatch Between Envisioned Uses and Current Reality-denoting the importance of potential applications of AI in primary health care practice, with a recognition of the current reality characterized by a lack of available tools; (2) Mechanics of AI Don't Matter: Just Another Tool in the Toolbox- reflecting an interest in what value AI tools could bring to practice, rather than concern with the mechanics of the AI tools themselves; (3) AI in Practice: A Double-Edged Sword-the possible benefits of AI use in primary health care contrasted with fundamental concern about the possible threats posed by AI in terms of clinical skills and capacity, mistakes, and loss of control; (4) The Non-Starters: A Guarded Stance Regarding AI Adoption in Primary Health Care-broader concerns centred on the ethical, legal, and social implications of AI use in primary health care; and (5) Necessary Elements: Facilitators of AI in Primary Health Care-elements required to support the uptake of AI tools, including co-creation, availability and use of high quality data, and the need for evaluation. CONCLUSION: The use of AI in primary health care may have a positive impact, but many factors need to be considered regarding its implementation. This study may help to inform the development and deployment of AI tools in primary health care.

Connecting artificial intelligence and primary care challenges: findings from a multi stakeholder collaborative consultation.

Despite widespread advancements in and envisioned uses for artificial intelligence (AI), few examples of successfully implemented AI innovations exist in primary care (PC) settings. OBJECTIVES: To identify priority areas for AI and PC in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: A collaborative consultation event engaged multiple stakeholders in a nominal group technique process to generate, discuss and rank ideas for how AI can support Ontario PC. RESULTS: The consultation process produced nine ranked priorities: (1) preventative care and risk profiling, (2) patient self-management of condition(s), (3) management and synthesis of information, (4) improved communication between PC and AI stakeholders, (5) data sharing and interoperability, (6-tie) clinical decision support, (6-tie) administrative staff support, (8) practitioner clerical and routine task support and (9) increased mental healthcare capacity and support. Themes emerging from small group discussions about barriers, implementation issues and resources needed to support the priorities included: equity and the digital divide; system capacity and culture; data availability and quality; legal and ethical issues; user-centred design; patient-centredness; and proper evaluation of AI-driven tool implementation. DISCUSSION: Findings provide guidance for future work on AI and PC. There are immediate opportunities to use existing resources to develop and test AI for priority areas at the patient, provider and system level. For larger scale, sustainable innovations, there is a need for longer-term projects that lay foundations around data and interdisciplinary work. CONCLUSION: Study findings can be used to inform future research and development of AI for PC, and to guide resource planning and allocation.

Describing a complex primary health care population to support future decision support initiatives.

Introduction: Developing decision support tools using data from a health care organization, to support care within that organization, is a promising paradigm to improve care delivery and population health. Descriptive epidemiology may be a valuable supplement to stakeholder input towards selection of potential initiatives and to inform methodological decisions throughout tool development. We additionally propose that to properly characterize complex populations in large-scale descriptive studies, both simple statistical and machine learning techniques can be useful. Objective: To describe sociodemographic, clinical, and health care use characteristics of primary care clients served by the Alliance for Healthier Communities, which provides team-based primary health care through Community Health Centres (CHCs) across Ontario, Canada. Methods: We used electronic health record data from adult ongoing primary care clients served by CHCs in 2009-2019. We performed traditional table-based summaries for each characteristic; and applied three unsupervised learning techniques to explore patterns of common condition co-occurrence, care provider teams, and care frequency. Results: There were 221,047 eligible clients. Sociodemographics: We described 13 characteristics, stratified by CHC type and client multimorbidity status. Clinical characteristics: Eleven-year prevalence of 24 investigated conditions ranged from 1% (Hepatitis C) to 63% (chronic musculoskeletal problem) with non-uniform risk across the care history; multimorbidity was common (81%) with variable co-occurrence patterns. Health care use characteristics: Most care was provided by physician and nursing providers, with heterogeneous combinations of other provider types. A subset of clients had many issues addressed within single-visits and there was within- and between-client variability in care frequency. In addition to substantive findings, we discuss methodological considerations for future decision support initiatives. Conclusions: We demonstrated the use of methods from statistics and machine learning, applied with an epidemiological lens, to provide an overview of a complex primary care population and lay a foundation for stakeholder engagement and decision support tool development.

A Mobile App to Identify Lifestyle Indicators Related to Undergraduate Mental Health (Smart Healthy Campus): Observational App-Based Ecological Momentary Assessment.

BACKGROUND: Undergraduate studies are challenging, and mental health issues can frequently occur in undergraduate students, straining campus resources that are already in demand for somatic problems. Cost-effective measures with ubiquitous devices, such as smartphones, offer the potential to deliver targeted interventions to monitor and affect lifestyle, which may result in improvements to student mental health. However, the avenues by which this can be done are not particularly well understood, especially in the Canadian context. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to deploy an initial version of the Smart Healthy Campus app at Western University, Canada, and to analyze corresponding data for associations between psychosocial factors (measured by a questionnaire) and behaviors associated with lifestyle (measured by smartphone sensors). METHODS: This preliminary study was conducted as an observational app-based ecological momentary assessment. Undergraduate students were recruited over email, and sampling using a custom 7-item questionnaire occurred on a weekly basis. RESULTS: First, the 7-item Smart Healthy Campus questionnaire, derived from fully validated questionnaires-such as the Brief Resilience Scale; General Anxiety Disorder-7; and Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale-21-was shown to significantly correlate with the mental health domains of these validated questionnaires, illustrating that it is a viable tool for a momentary assessment of an overview of undergraduate mental health. Second, data collected through the app were analyzed. There were 312 weekly responses and 813 sensor samples from 139 participants from March 2019 to March 2020; data collection concluded when COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. Demographic information was not collected in this preliminary study because of technical limitations. Approximately 69.8% (97/139) of participants only completed one survey, possibly because of the absence of any incentive. Given the limited amount of data, analysis was not conducted with respect to time, so all data were analyzed as a single collection. On the basis of mean rank, students showing more positive mental health through higher questionnaire scores tended to spend more time completing questionnaires, showed more signs of physical activity based on pedometers, and had their devices running less and plugged in charging less when sampled. In addition, based on mean rank, students on campus tended to report more positive mental health through higher questionnaire scores compared with those who were sampled off campus. Some data from students found in or near residences were also briefly examined. CONCLUSIONS: Given these limited data, participants tended to report a more positive overview of mental health when on campus and when showing signs of higher levels of physical activity. These early findings suggest that device sensors related to physical activity and location are useful for monitoring undergraduate students and designing interventions. However, much more sensor data are needed going forward, especially given the sweeping changes in undergraduate studies due to COVID-19.

An App-Based Surveillance System for Undergraduate Students' Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Protocol for a Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is a public health emergency that poses challenges to the mental health of approximately 1.4 million university students in Canada. Preliminary evidence has shown that the COVID-19 pandemic had a detrimental impact on undergraduate student mental health and well-being; however, existing data are predominantly limited to cross-sectional survey-based studies. Owing to the evolving nature of the pandemic, longer-term prospective surveillance efforts are needed to better anticipate risk and protective factors during a pandemic. OBJECTIVE: The overarching aim of this study is to use a mobile (primarily smartphone-based) surveillance system to identify risk and protective factors for undergraduate students' mental health. Factors will be identified from weekly self-report data (eg, affect and living accommodation) and device sensor data (eg, physical activity and device usage) to prospectively predict self-reported mental health and service utilization. METHODS: Undergraduate students at Western University (London, Ontario, Canada), will be recruited via email to complete an internet-based baseline questionnaire with the option to participate in the study on a weekly basis, using the Student Pandemic Experience (SPE) mobile app for Android/iOS. The app collects sensor samples (eg, GPS coordinates and steps) and self-reported weekly mental health and wellness surveys. Student participants can opt in to link their mobile data with campus-based administrative data capturing health service utilization. Risk and protective factors that predict mental health outcomes are expected to be estimated from (1) cross-sectional associations among students' characteristics (eg, demographics) and key psychosocial factors (eg, affect, stress, and social connection), and behaviors (eg, physical activity and device usage) and (2) longitudinal associations between psychosocial and behavioral factors and campus-based health service utilization. RESULTS: Data collection began November 9, 2020, and will be ongoing through to at least October 31, 2021. Retention from the baseline survey (N=427) to app sign-up was 74% (315/427), with 175-215 (55%-68%) app participants actively responding to weekly surveys. From November 9, 2020, to August 8, 2021, a total of 4851 responses to the app surveys and 25,985 sensor samples (consisting of up to 68 individual data items each; eg, GPS coordinates and steps) were collected from the 315 participants who signed up for the app. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this real-world longitudinal cohort study of undergraduate students' mental health based on questionnaires and mobile sensor metrics is expected to show psychosocial and behavioral patterns associated with both positive and negative mental health-related states during pandemic conditions at a relatively large, public, and residential Canadian university campus. The results can be used to support decision-makers and students during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and similar future events. For comparable settings, new interventions (digital or otherwise) might be designed using these findings as an evidence base. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/30504.

Development of a prognostic prediction model to estimate the risk of multiple chronic diseases: constructing a copula-based model using Canadian primary care electronic medical record data.

INTRODUCTION: The ability to estimate risk of multimorbidity will provide valuable information to patients and primary care practitioners in their preventative efforts. Current methods for prognostic prediction modelling are insufficient for the estimation of risk for multiple outcomes, as they do not properly capture the dependence that exists between outcomes. OBJECTIVES: We developed a multivariate prognostic prediction model for the 5-year risk of diabetes, hypertension, and osteoarthritis that quantifies and accounts for the dependence between each disease using a copula-based model. METHODS: We used data from the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN) from 2009 onwards, a collection of electronic medical records submitted by participating primary care practitioners across Canada. We identified patients 18 years and older without all three outcome diseases and observed any incident diabetes, osteoarthritis, or hypertension within 5-years, resulting in a large retrospective cohort for model development and internal validation (n=425,228). First, we quantified the dependence between outcomes using unadjusted and adjusted Ø coefficients. We then estimated a copula-based model to quantify the non-linear dependence between outcomes that can be used to derive risk estimates for each outcome, accounting for the observed dependence. Copula-based models are defined by univariate models for each outcome and a dependence function, specified by the parameter θ. Logistic regression was used for the univariate models and the Frank copula was selected as the dependence function. RESULTS: All outcome pairs demonstrated statistically significant dependence that was reduced after adjusting for covariates. The copula-based model yielded statistically significant θ parameters in agreement with the adjusted and unadjusted Ø coefficients. Our copula-based model can effectively be used to estimate trivariate probabilities. DISCUSSION: Quantitative estimates of multimorbidity risk inform discussions between patients and their primary care practitioners around prevention in an effort to reduce the incidence of multimorbidity.

Primary Care Informatics Response to Covid-19 Pandemic: Adaptation, Progress, and Lessons from Four Countries with High ICT Development.

OBJECTIVE: Internationally, primary care practice had to transform in response to the COVID pandemic. Informatics issues included access, privacy, and security, as well as patient concerns of equity, safety, quality, and trust. This paper describes progress and lessons learned. METHODS: IMIA Primary Care Informatics Working Group members from Australia, Canada, United Kingdom and United States developed a standardised template for collection of information. The template guided a rapid literature review. We also included experiential learning from primary care and public health perspectives. RESULTS: All countries responded rapidly. Common themes included rapid reductions then transformation to virtual visits, pausing of non-COVID related informatics projects, all against a background of non-standardized digital development and disparate territory or state regulations and guidance. Common barriers in these four and in less-resourced countries included disparities in internet access and availability including bandwidth limitations when internet access was available, initial lack of coding standards, and fears of primary care clinicians that patients were delaying care despite the availability of televisits. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care clinicians were able to respond to the COVID crisis through telehealth and electronic record enabled change. However, the lack of coordinated national strategies and regulation, assurance of financial viability, and working in silos remained limitations. The potential for primary care informatics to transform current practice was highlighted. More research is needed to confirm preliminary observations and trends noted.

Analyzing Patient Stories on Social Media Using Text Analytics.

Patients can use social media to describe their healthcare experiences. Several social media platforms, such as the Care Opinion platform, host large volumes of patient stories. However, the large number of these stories and the healthcare system's workload make exploring these stories a difficult task for healthcare providers and administrators. This study uses text mining for analyzing patient stories on the Care Opinion platform and exploring healthcare experiences described in these stories. We collected 367,573 stories, which were posted between September 2005 and September 2019. Topic modeling (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) and sentiment analysis were used to analyze the stories. Sixteen topics were identified representing five aspects of the healthcare experience: communication between patients and providers, quality of clinical services, quality of non-clinical services, human aspects of healthcare experiences, and patient satisfaction. There was also a clear sentiment in 99% of the stories. More than 55% of the stories that describe the patient's request for information, the patient's description of treatment, or the patient's making of an appointment had a negative sentiment, which represents patient dissatisfaction. The study provides insights into the content of patient stories and demonstrates how topic modeling and sentiment analysis can be used to analyze large volumes of patient stories and provide insights into these stories. The findings suggest that these stories are not general social media posts; instead, they describe elements of healthcare experiences that can be helpful for quality improvement. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41666-021-00097-5.

Patterns of Primary Care Use Prior to a First Diagnosis of Nonaffective Psychotic Disorder in Ontario, Canada: Modèles d'utilisation des soins de première ligne avant un premier diagnostic de trouble psychotique non affectif en Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Many people experience early signs and symptoms before the onset of psychotic disorder, suggesting that there may be help-seeking prior to first diagnosis. The family physician has been found to play a key role in pathways to care. This study examined patterns of primary care use preceding a first diagnosis of psychotic disorder. METHODS: We used health administrative data from Ontario (Canada) to construct a population-based retrospective cohort. We investigated patterns of primary care use, including frequency and timing of contacts, in the 6 years prior to a first diagnosis of psychosis, relative to a general population comparison group matched on age, sex, geographic area, and index date. We used latent class growth modeling to identify distinct trajectories of primary care service use, and associated factors, preceding the first diagnosis. RESULTS: People with early psychosis contacted primary care over twice as frequently in the 6 years preceding first diagnosis (RR = 2.22; 95% CI, = 2.19 to 2.25), relative to the general population, with a sharp increase in contacts 10 months prior to diagnosis. They had higher contact frequency across nearly all diagnostic codes, including mental health, physical health, and preventative health. We identified 3 distinct service use trajectories: low-, medium-, and high-increasing usage. DISCUSSION: We found elevated patterns of primary care service use prior to first diagnosis of psychotic disorder, suggesting that initiatives to support family physicians in their role on the pathway to care are warranted. Earlier intervention has implications for improved social, educational, and professional development in young people with first-episode psychosis.

Cognition and motor function: The gait and cognition pooled index.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for outcome measures with improved responsiveness to changes in pre-dementia populations. Both cognitive and motor function play important roles in neurodegeneration; motor function decline is detectable at early stages of cognitive decline. This proof of principle study used a Pooled Index approach to evaluate improved responsiveness of the predominant outcome measure (ADAS-Cog: Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale) when assessment of motor function is added. METHODS: Candidate Pooled Index variables were selected based on theoretical importance and pairwise correlation coefficients. Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U tests assessed baseline discrimination. Standardized response means assessed responsiveness to longitudinal change. RESULTS: Final selected variables for the Pooled Index include gait velocity, dual-task cost of gait velocity, and an ADAS-Cog-Proxy (statistical approximation of the ADAS-Cog using similar cognitive tests). The Pooled Index and ADAS-Cog-Proxy scores had similar ability to discriminate between pre-dementia syndromes. The Pooled Index demonstrated trends of similar or greater responsiveness to longitudinal decline than ADAS-Cog-Proxy scores. CONCLUSION: Adding motor function assessments to the ADAS-Cog may improve responsiveness in pre-dementia populations.

Development and evaluation of an osteoarthritis risk model for integration into primary care health information technology.

BACKGROUND: We developed and evaluated a prognostic prediction model that estimates osteoarthritis risk for use by patients and practitioners that is designed to be appropriate for integration into primary care health information technology systems. Osteoarthritis, a joint disorder characterized by pain and stiffness, causes significant morbidity among older Canadians. Because our prognostic prediction model for osteoarthritis risk uses data that are readily available in primary care settings, it supports targeting of interventions delivered as part of clinical practice that are aimed at risk reduction. METHODS: We used the CPCSSN (Canadian Primary Sentinel Surveillance Network) database, which contains aggregated electronic health information from a cohort of primary care practices, to develop and evaluate a prognostic prediction model to estimate 5-year osteoarthritis risk, addressing contextual challenges of data availability and missingness. We constructed a retrospective cohort of 383,117 eligible primary care patients who were included in the cohort if they had an encounter with their primary care practitioner between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2010. Patients were excluded if they had a diagnosis of osteoarthritis prior to their first visit in this time period. Incident cases of osteoarthritis were observed. The model was constructed to predict incident osteoarthritis based on age, sex, BMI, previous leg injury, and osteoporosis. Evaluation of the model used internal 10-fold cross-validation; we argue that internal validation is particularly appropriate for a model that is to be integrated into the same context from which the data were derived. RESULTS: The resulting prediction model for 5-year risk of osteoarthritis diagnosis demonstrated state-of-the-art discrimination (estimated AUROC 0.84) and good calibration (assessed visually.) The model relies only on information that is readily available in Canadian primary care settings, and hence is appropriate for integration into Canadian primary care health information technology. CONCLUSIONS: If the contextual challenges arising when using primary care electronic medical record data are appropriately addressed, highly discriminative models for osteoarthritis risk may be constructed using only data commonly available in primary care. Because the models are constructed from data in the same setting where the model is to be applied, internal validation provides strong evidence that the resulting model will perform well in its intended application.

Artificial Intelligence and Primary Care Research: A Scoping Review.

PURPOSE: Rapid increases in technology and data motivate the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to primary care, but no comprehensive review exists to guide these efforts. Our objective was to assess the nature and extent of the body of research on AI for primary care. METHODS: We performed a scoping review, searching 11 published or gray literature databases with terms pertaining to AI (eg, machine learning, bayes* network) and primary care (eg, general pract*, nurse). We performed title and abstract and then full-text screening using Covidence. Studies had to involve research, include both AI and primary care, and be published in Eng-lish. We extracted data and summarized studies by 7 attributes: purpose(s); author appointment(s); primary care function(s); intended end user(s); health condition(s); geographic location of data source; and AI subfield(s). RESULTS: Of 5,515 unique documents, 405 met eligibility criteria. The body of research focused on developing or modifying AI methods (66.7%) to support physician diagnostic or treatment recommendations (36.5% and 13.8%), for chronic conditions, using data from higher-income countries. Few studies (14.1%) had even a single author with a primary care appointment. The predominant AI subfields were supervised machine learning (40.0%) and expert systems (22.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Research on AI for primary care is at an early stage of maturity. For the field to progress, more interdisciplinary research teams with end-user engagement and evaluation studies are needed.

Estimating patient-reported outcomes for glaucoma management: A cross-sectional study.

AIM: To identify important explanatory variables of four patient-reported outcomes (PROs): vision-related quality of life (VRQoL), preference-based health-related quality of life (HRQoL), social support and community integration and depressive symptoms. METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted at one ophthalmic practice in a hospital setting. Patients with a diagnosis of glaucoma or glaucoma suspect (n = 250) were sequentially recruited. Patients with language restrictions were excluded. Data were collected through medical chart reviews and face-to-face interviews. The PROs were measured using validated tools. Candidate models for predicting PROs from explanatory variables were constructed using linear and logistic regression, as well as classification and regression trees. Through leave-one-out cross-validation, the performance of each model was assessed in terms of mean absolute error. RESULTS: Use of mobility aids, best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), income, and living arrangements were most predictive of VRQoL, social support, and community integration. Use of mobility aids was also most predictive of the presence of depressive symptoms, and BCVA with preference-based HRQoL. CONCLUSION: Although promising associations were discovered, the models based on commonly collected clinical variables had limited ability to accurately predict individual patient PROs. Thus, although this study identifies clinical and demographic variables that are most predictive of PROs, routine collection of PROs in clinical practice may be necessary to obtain a complete picture of the quality of life of glaucoma patients.