ABSTRACT
Introducción y objetivos: El Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) es el índice más extendido en Europa para la valoración del riesgo cardiovascular global. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo validar el riesgo calculado en 2004 con la mortalidad cardiovascular observada en 10 años de seguimiento de una cohorte de población de 40 a 75 años. Métodos: En 2004 se calculó el SCORE y el SCORE OP para personas mayores en la población de 40 a 64 y de 65 a 74 años, respectivamente. En 2014 se estimó la mortalidad a 10 años con el modelo de supervivencia y el estimador de Kaplan-Meier. Se calcularon la sensibilidad, la especificidad, los valores predictivos, el riesgo relativo con valores SCORE≥5% y el área bajo la curva (estadístico C). Resultados: La mortalidad cardiovascular estimada por el SCORE fue 3 veces superior a la observada. La sensibilidad de un SCORE≥5% fue del 20% en mujeres y del 28,6% por debajo de los 65 años. Los valores predictivos positivos fueron también bajos, sobre todo en las mujeres, con un escaso 0,6%. El estadístico C no fue significativo ni para las mujeres ni para los menores de 65 años. Conclusiones: El índice de riesgo de mortalidad SCORE no refleja adecuadamente al patrón epidemiológico de las enfermedades cardiovasculares en Castilla y León. Se hace necesaria una revisión periódica de los modelos de predicción de enfermedad y de mortalidad para adaptar y corregir los protocolos de prevención y tratamiento. El SCORE OP presenta mejores parámetros de validez que el SCORE tradicional
Introduction and objectives: The Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) is the most extended index in Europe for overall cardiovascular risk assessment. This study aims to validate the calculated risk with the observed 10-year cardiovascular mortality in a population cohort aged 40 to 75 years. Methods: In 2014 the SCORE and the SCORE OP (for older people) were calculated in a population aged 40 to 64 years-old and 65 to 75 years-old, respectively. In 2014 the 10-year mortality was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator and survival model. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, risk ratio of a SCORE value≥5%, and the area under the curve (C statistic) were calculated. Results: Cardiovascular mortality estimated by SCORE was 3 times higher than the observed mortality. The sensitivity of a SCORE≥5% was 20% in women and 28.6% in those less than 65 years old. Predictive positive values were also low, particularly in women with 0.6%. Neither women nor those aged less than 65 years had a significant C statistic. Conclusions: The SCORE index does not suitably reflect the cardiovascular mortality pattern in Castilla y León. The prediction models for morbidity and mortality need to be periodically updated in order to adjust the prevention and treatment protocols. The SCORE OP has better validity parameters than the SCORE calculated below that age
Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Cohort Studies , Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality , Risk Assessment , Risk Index , Hypertension/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Spain/epidemiology , Hypertension/complications , SurvivorshipABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: The Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) is the most extended index in Europe for overall cardiovascular risk assessment. This study aims to validate the calculated risk with the observed 10-year cardiovascular mortality in a population cohort aged 40 to 75 years. METHODS: In 2014 the SCORE and the SCORE OP (for older people) were calculated in a population aged 40 to 64 years-old and 65 to 75 years-old, respectively. In 2014 the 10-year mortality was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator and survival model. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, risk ratio of a SCORE value≥5%, and the area under the curve (C statistic) were calculated. RESULTS: Cardiovascular mortality estimated by SCORE was 3 times higher than the observed mortality. The sensitivity of a SCORE≥5% was 20% in women and 28.6% in those less than 65 years old. Predictive positive values were also low, particularly in women with 0.6%. Neither women nor those aged less than 65 years had a significant C statistic. CONCLUSIONS: The SCORE index does not suitably reflect the cardiovascular mortality pattern in Castilla y León. The prediction models for morbidity and mortality need to be periodically updated in order to adjust the prevention and treatment protocols. The SCORE OP has better validity parameters than the SCORE calculated below that age.
Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis , Risk Assessment , Adult , Aged , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , SpainABSTRACT
OBJETIVO: Evaluar los resultados obtenidos por el programa de detección precoz de trastornos generalizados del desarrollo (TGD), actualmente en marcha en las áreas de salud de Salamanca y Zamora, en términos de participación y opinión de los profesionales hacia el mismo, así como la validez de la herramienta con la finalidad de extender su uso tanto a nivel autonómico como nacional. MÉTODO: Un total de 54 equipos de pediatría participaron en las sesiones de formación del programa de cribado de TGD en septiembre de 2005 y accedieron a administrar el cuestionario M-CHAT a todos los padres que acudían a sus consultas de pediatría en cualquiera de estas 2 visitas: 18 y/o los 24 meses dentro del Programa del Control del Niño Sano. Hasta diciembre de 2012 han participado un total de 9.524 niños. Adicionalmente, se ha evaluado la participación y opinión de los equipos de pediatría participantes mediante cuestionarios y entrevistas y se han estimado los costes por caso positivo detectado. RESULTADOS: Del total, 852 (8,9%) sujetos resultaron sospechosos de TGD en el cuestionario M-CHAT, de los cuales 61 (7,1%) se confirmaron mediante la entrevista de seguimiento. De estos, 22 obtuvieron un diagnóstico TGD y 31 de otros trastornos de inicio en la infancia según DSM-IV-TR. El 74% de los equipos encuestados consideran el programa totalmente viable y el 22% viable aunque con reservas (n = 54). CONCLUSIONES: Este estudio ha conseguido mostrar por primera vez en España, la viabilidad de realizar un programa de cribado de TGD de base poblacional dentro del sistema público de salud. La formación sobre los problemas del desarrollo comunicativo y social y la difusión de las señales de alerta entre los pediatras, además de la utilización del M-CHAT, es fundamental para el avance en la detección temprana de estos trastornos
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the results of the Pervasive Developmental Disorders (PDD) screening program currently ongoing in the public health services in the health area of Salamanca and Zamora, Spain, in terms of feasibility, reliability and costs, with the purpose of extending the program at regional and national levels. METHOD: A total of 54 paediatric teams (nurses and paediatricians) from the provinces of Salamanca and Zamora participated in the training sessions for the PDD Screening Programme in September 2005, and agreed to administer the questionnaire M-CHAT1 to all parents attending their clinics in any of these two visits: 18 months and/or 24 months within the Well-baby Checkup Program. A total of 9,524 children have participated up to December 2012. Additionally, we evaluated the participation and opinions of the paediatric teams using questionnaires, and costs per positive case have estimated. RESULTS: Out of a total of 852 (8.9%) children determined as PDD high-risk with the M-CHAT questionnaire results, 61 (7.1%) were confirmed as positive with the M-CHAT follow-up interview. Of these, 22 were diagnosed with a PDD and 31 other disorders of childhood onset according toDSM-IV-TR2. Almost three-quarters (74%) of respondents felt the program was totally feasible, and 22% viable, but with reservations (n=54). CONCLUSIONS: This study has been able to show for the first time in Spain, the feasibility of a population-based PDD screening program within the public health system. Training in social and communicative development, and dissemination of the early signs of PDD among paediatricians, as well as the use of the M-CHAT, is essential for progress in the early detection of these disorders
Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Infant , Child Development Disorders, Pervasive/epidemiology , Autistic Disorder/epidemiology , Early Diagnosis , Mass Screening/methods , Primary Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Neuropsychological TestsABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the results of the Pervasive Developmental Disorders (PDD) screening program currently ongoing in the public health services in the health area of Salamanca and Zamora, Spain, in terms of feasibility, reliability and costs, with the purpose of extending the program at regional and national levels. METHOD: A total of 54 paediatric teams (nurses and paediatricians) from the provinces of Salamanca and Zamora participated in the training sessions for the PDD Screening Programme in September 2005, and agreed to administer the questionnaire M-CHAT(1) to all parents attending their clinics in any of these two visits: 18 months and/or 24 months within the Well-baby Check-up Program. A total of 9,524 children have participated up to December 2012. Additionally, we evaluated the participation and opinions of the paediatric teams using questionnaires, and costs per positive case have estimated. RESULTS: Out of a total of 852 (8.9%) children determined as PDD high-risk with the M-CHAT questionnaire results, 61 (7.1%) were confirmed as positive with the M-CHAT follow-up interview. Of these, 22 were diagnosed with a PDD and 31 other disorders of childhood onset according to DSM-IV-TR(2). Almost three-quarters (74%) of respondents felt the program was totally feasible, and 22% viable, but with reservations (n=54). CONCLUSIONS: This study has been able to show for the first time in Spain, the feasibility of a population-based PDD screening program within the public health system. Training in social and communicative development, and dissemination of the early signs of PDD among paediatricians, as well as the use of the M-CHAT, is essential for progress in the early detection of these disorders.
Subject(s)
Child Development Disorders, Pervasive/diagnosis , Early Diagnosis , Algorithms , Catchment Area, Health , Child, Preschool , Cross-Sectional Studies , Feasibility Studies , Female , Humans , Infant , Male , Spain , Surveys and QuestionnairesABSTRACT
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