A Multicenter Study of the Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Expectations About Prognosis by Surrogate Decision-Makers in ICUs.

OBJECTIVES: Optimistic expectations about prognosis by surrogate decision-makers in ICUs are common, but there are few data about the causes and clinical consequences. Our objective was to determine the causes of optimistic expectations about prognosis among surrogates and whether it is associated with more use of life support at the end of life. DESIGN: Prospective, multicenter cohort study from 2009 to 2012. SETTING: Twelve ICUs from multiple regions of the United States. SUBJECTS: The surrogates and physicians of 275 incapacitated ICU patients at high risk of death. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Surrogates and physicians completed a validated instrument assessing their prognostic expectations for hospital survival. We determined the proportion of surrogates with optimistic expectations, defined as a prognostic estimate that was at least 20% more optimistic than the physician's, then determined how frequently this arose from surrogates miscomprehending the physicians' prognosis versus holding more hopeful beliefs compared with the physician. We used multivariable regression to examine whether optimistic expectations were associated with length of stay, stratified by survival status, and time to withdrawal of life support among nonsurvivors. Overall, 45% of surrogates (95% CI, 38-51%) held optimistic expectations about prognosis, which arose from a combination of misunderstanding the physician's prognostic expectations and from holding more hopeful beliefs compared with the physician. Optimistic expectations by surrogates were associated with significantly longer duration of ICU treatment among nonsurvivors before death (ß coefficient = 0.44; 95% CI, 0.05-0.83; p = 0.027), corresponding to a 56% longer ICU stay. This difference was associated with a significantly longer time to withdrawal of life support among dying patients whose surrogates had optimistic prognostic expectations compared with those who did not (ß coefficient = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.16-1.07; p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalent optimism about prognosis among surrogates in ICUs arises both from surrogates' miscomprehension of physicians' prognostications and from surrogates holding more hopeful beliefs. This optimism is associated with longer duration of life support at the end of life.

Institutional review board guidance on pediatric research: missed opportunities.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether and how institutional review boards (IRBs) are using their web-sites to provide guidance to investigators conducting pediatric research. STUDY DESIGN: We studied guidance on pediatric research from IRB web-sites at the 25 US medical schools, plus affiliated hospitals, research centers, and public health schools, and the top National Institutes of Health-funded (>5 million dollars) children's hospitals with separate IRBs. We also included 1 IRB that was not otherwise eligible because other IRBs use its web-based research ethics training program. Our final study population was 39 IRB web-sites. RESULTS: IRB web-sites generally provide basic information about pediatric research. However, few IRBs discuss important ethical issues on which the regulations are silent. Moreover, some IRBs provide incorrect advice about the regulations. More detailed IRB guidance may help pediatric investigators think through ethical issues and protect children in clinical research. Helpful approaches we identified include checklists and "points to consider," concrete examples to illustrate regulatory requirements, and discussion of areas of controversy. CONCLUSION: Few IRBs present the kind of detailed guidance that investigators might need to ensure ethically designed protocols. IRBs should revise their web-sites to ensure that they provide accurate, comprehensive, and sufficiently detailed guidance.