Predicted Impacts of Booster, Immunity Decline, Vaccination Strategies, and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Outcomes in France.

The major economic and health consequences of COVID-19 called for various protective measures and mass vaccination campaigns. A previsional model was used to predict the future impacts of various measure combinations on COVID-19 mortality over a 400-day period in France. Calibrated on previous national hospitalization and mortality data, an agent-based epidemiological model was used to predict individual and combined effects of booster doses, vaccination of refractory adults, and vaccination of children, according to infection severity, immunity waning, and graded non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Assuming a 1.5 hospitalization hazard ratio and rapid immunity waning, booster doses would reduce COVID-19-related deaths by 50-70% with intensive NPIs and 93% with moderate NPIs. Vaccination of initially-refractory adults or children ≥5 years would half the number of deaths whatever the infection severity or degree of immunity waning. Assuming a 1.5 hospitalization hazard ratio, rapid immunity waning, moderate NPIs and booster doses, vaccinating children ≥12 years, ≥5 years, and ≥6 months would result in 6212, 3084, and 3018 deaths, respectively (vs. 87,552, 64,002, and 48,954 deaths without booster, respectively). In the same conditions, deaths would be 2696 if all adults and children ≥12 years were vaccinated and 2606 if all adults and children ≥6 months were vaccinated (vs. 11,404 and 3624 without booster, respectively). The model dealt successfully with single measures or complex combinations. It can help choosing them according to future epidemic features, vaccination extensions, and population immune status.

Impact of in Situ Simulated Climate Change on Communities and Non-Indigenous Species: Two Climates, Two Responses.

Climate change constitutes a major challenge for marine urban ecosystems and ocean warming will likely strongly affect local communities. Non-Indigenous Species (NIS) have been shown to often have higher heat resistance than natives, but studies investigating how forthcoming global warming might affect them in marine urban environments remain scarce, especially in Situ studies. Here we used an in Situ warming experiment in a NW Mediterranean (warm temperate) and a NE Atlantic (cold temperate) marina to see how global warming might affect recruited communities in the near future. In both marinas, warming resulted in significantly different community structure, lower biomass, and more empty space compared to control. However, while in the warm temperate marina, NIS showed an increased surface cover, it was reduced in the cold temperate one. Metabolomic analyses on Bugula neritina in the Atlantic marina revealed potential heat stress experienced by this introduced bryozoan and a potential link between heat stress and the expression of a halogenated alkaloid, Caelestine A. The present results might indicate that the effects of global warming on the prevalence of NIS may differ between geographical provinces, which could be investigated by larger scale studies.

Pollution gradient leads to local adaptation and small-scale spatial variability of communities and functions in an urban marine environment.

Urbanization of coastal habitats, of which harbors and marinas are the paragon, has led to various ecological paradigms about their functioning. Harbor infrastructures offer new hard substrata that are colonized by a wide variety of organisms (biofouling) including many introduced species. These structures also modify hydrodynamism and contaminant dispersal, leading to strong disturbance gradients within them. Differences in sessile community structure have previously been correlated to these gradients at small spatial scale (<100 m). Local adaptation might be involved to explain such results, but as correlation is not causation, the present study aims to understand the causal link between the environmental gradients and community structure through a reciprocal transplant experiment among three sites of a marina (inner, middle, entrance). Our results highlighted strong small-scale spatial variations of contaminants (trace metals, PCB, pesticides, and PAH) in sediments and animal samples which have been causally linked to changes in community composition after transplant. But historical contingency and colonization succession also play an important role. Our results provided strong evidence for local adaptation since community structure, respiration, and pollutant uptake in Bugula neritina, as well as the metabolomes of B. neritina and Ciona intestinalis were impacted by the transplant with a disadvantage for individuals transplanted from the entrance to the inner location. The here observed results may thus indicate that the disturbance gradient in marinas might constitute a staple for selecting pollutant-resistant species and populations, causing local adaptation. This highlights the importance of conducting further studies into small scale local adaptation.

Expected Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in France for Several Combinations of Vaccination Strategies and Barrier Measures.

The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, enhanced by rapid spreads of variants, has caused a major international health crisis, with serious public health and economic consequences. An agent-based model was designed to simulate the evolution of the epidemic in France over 2021 and the first six months of 2022. The study compares the efficiencies of four theoretical vaccination campaigns (over 6, 9, 12, and 18 months), combined with various non-pharmaceutical interventions. In France, with the emergence of the Alpha variant, without vaccination and despite strict barrier measures, more than 600,000 deaths would be observed. An efficient vaccination campaign (i.e., total coverage of the French population) over six months would divide the death toll by 10. A vaccination campaign of 12, instead of 6, months would slightly increase the disease-related mortality (+6%) but require a 77% increase in ICU bed-days. A campaign over 18 months would increase the disease-related mortality by 17% and require a 244% increase in ICU bed-days. Thus, it seems mandatory to vaccinate the highest possible percentage of the population within 12, or better yet, 9 months. The race against the epidemic and virus variants is really a matter of vaccination strategy.

Sexual isolation with and without ecological isolation in marine isopods Jaera albifrons and J. praehirsuta.

Sexual barriers associated with mate choice are often found to be associated with some level of ecological isolation between species. The independence and relative strength of sexual isolation are thus difficult to assess. Here, we take advantage of a pair of marine isopod species (Jaera albifrons and J. praehirsuta) that show sexual isolation and coexist in populations where they share the same microhabitat or not (i.e. without or with ecological isolation). We estimated the strength of sexual isolation between J. albifrons and J. praehirsuta using no-choice trials and a multiple-choice experimental population. We found that sexual isolation is strong in both the presence and the absence of ecological isolation, but that it is asymmetric and fails to prevent interspecific gene flow entirely. First-generation intrinsic post-zygotic barriers were low, and there was no sexual isolation within J. praehirsuta across habitats. The J. albifrons/J. praehirsuta species pair thus provides an example where the role of sexual isolation as a barrier to gene flow (a) does not depend upon current ecological isolation, (b) seems to have evolved independently of local ecological conditions, but (c) is insufficient to complete speciation entirely on its own.

Degradation dynamics and processes associated with the accumulation of Laminaria hyperborea (Phaeophyceae) kelp fragments: an in situ experimental approach.

A high proportion of the kelp Laminaria hyperborea production is exported from kelp forests following seasonal storms or natural annual old blade loss. Transport of drifting kelp fragments can lead to temporary accumulations in benthic subtidal habitats. We investigated the degradation processes of L. hyperborea in a low subtidal sandy bottom ecosystem by setting up a 6-month cage experiment to simulate accumulations of kelp fragments on the seafloor. We monitored temporal changes in biomass, nutritional quality (C:N ratio), respiration, quantum efficiency of photosystem II (Fv /Fm ), bacterial colonization, and chemical defense concentrations. Biomass decomposition started after 2 weeks and followed a classic negative exponential pattern, leading to 50% degradation after 8 weeks. The degradation process seemed to reach a critical step after 11 weeks, with an increase in respiration rate and phlorotannin concentration in the tissues. These results likely reflect an increase in bacterial activity and a weakening of the kelp cell wall. After 25 weeks of degradation, only 16% of the initial biomass persisted, but the remaining large fragments looked intact. Furthermore, photosystems were still responding to light stimuli, indicating that photosynthesis persisted over time. Reproductive tissues appeared on some fragments after 20 weeks of degradation, showing a capacity to maintain the reproductive function. Our results indicate that L. hyperborea fragments degrade slowly. As they maintain major physiological functions (photosynthesis, reproduction, etc.) and accumulate on adjacent ecosystems, they may play a long-term ecological role in coastal ecosystem dynamics.

Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France.

For insurance companies, wind storms represent a main source of volatility, leading to potentially huge aggregated claim amounts. In this article, we compare different constructions of a storm index allowing us to assess the economic impact of storms on an insurance portfolio by exploiting information from historical wind speed data. Contrary to historical insurance portfolio data, meteorological variables show fewer nonstationarities between years and are easily available with long observation records; hence, they represent a valuable source of additional information for insurers if the relation between observations of claims and wind speeds can be revealed. Since standard correlation measures between raw wind speeds and insurance claims are weak, a storm index focusing on high wind speeds can afford better information. A storm index approach has been applied to yearly aggregated claim amounts in Germany with promising results. Using historical meteorological and insurance data, we assess the consistency of the proposed index constructions with respect to various parameters and weights. Moreover, we are able to place the major insurance events since 1998 on a broader horizon beyond 40 years. Our approach provides a meteorological justification for calculating the return periods of extreme-storm-related insurance events whose magnitude has rarely been reached.