A Novel Nomogram to Predict Prognosis of Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Plus Anti-PD1.

Purpose: The combination of radiotherapy and monoclonal antibody against programmed cell death 1 (anti-PD1) showed preliminary efficacy in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to identify the prognostic factors and construct a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with advanced HCC after treatment with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) plus anti-PD1. Patients and Methods: The OS and progression-free survival (PFS) of 102 patients with BCLC stage C HCC was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Potential independent prognostic factors were determined using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. A nomogram was established to predict prognosis whose accuracy and reliability was verified by a calibration curve and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results: The median PFS and OS rates of the 102 patients with advanced HCC were 9.9 months and 14.3 months, respectively. Ninety-three patients were evaluated for efficacy, including five (5.38%) with complete response and 48 (51.61%) with partial response, with an overall response rate of 56.99%. Grade 3 and 4 adverse reactions (AEs) were observed in 32.35% of patients; no grade 5 AEs occurred. Multivariate Cox analysis revealed albumin and alpha-fetoprotein levels, neutrophil counts 3-4 weeks after IMRT initiation, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio 3-4 weeks after IMRT initiation to be independent prognostic factors. The nomogram model constructed using these factors had good consistency and accuracy with 1-3 years AUROC of 78.7, 78.6, and 93.5, respectively. Conclusion: IMRT plus anti-PD1 showed promising efficacy and controllable adverse reactions in treating advanced HCC. The nomogram model demonstrated good reliability and clinical applicability.

The combination of radiotherapy and monoclonal antibody against programmed cell death 1 (anti­PD1) showed preliminary efficacy and manageable safety in HCC. We retrospectively evaluated the efficacy and safety of 102 patients with advanced HCC treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) plus anti-PD1. The study shows that the combination showed promising efficacy with a median PFS and OS of 9.9 months and 14.3 months, respectively. The adverse reactions were controllable. The novel nomogram model established based on independent prognostic factors including albumin, alpha-fetoprotein, neutrophils count 3­4 weeks after IMRT initiation and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio 3­4 weeks after IMRT initiation demonstrated good reliability.

Radiotherapy plus anti-PD1 versus radiotherapy for hepatic toxicity in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

PURPOSE: In this study, we aimed to compare the radiation-induced hepatic toxicity (RIHT) outcomes of radiotherapy (RT) plus antibodies against programmed cell death protein 1 (anti-PD1) versus RT alone in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), evaluate prognostic factors of non-classic radiation-induced liver disease (ncRILD), and establish a nomogram for predicting the probability of ncRILD. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with unresectable HCC treated with RT and anti-PD1 (RT + PD1, n = 30) or RT alone (n = 66) were enrolled retrospectively. Patients (n = 30) in each group were placed in a matched cohort using propensity score matching (PSM). Treatment-related hepatotoxicity was evaluated and analyzed before and after PSM. The prognostic factors affecting ncRILD were identified by univariable logistic analysis and Spearman's rank test in the matched cohort to generate a nomogram. RESULTS: There were no differences in RIHT except for increased aspartate aminotransferase (AST) ≥ grade 1 and increased total bilirubin ≥ grade 1 between the two groups before PSM. After PSM, AST ≥ grade 1 occurred more frequently in the RT + PD1 group (p = 0.020), and there were no significant differences in other hepatotoxicity metrics between the two groups. In the matched cohort, V25, tumor number, age, and prothrombin time (PT) were the optimal prognostic factors for ncRILD modeling. A nomogram revealed a good predictive performance (area under the curve = 0.82). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of RIHT in patients with HCC treated with RT + PD1 was acceptable and similar to that of RT treatment. The nomogram based on V25, tumor number, age, and PT robustly predicted the probability of ncRILD.

Establishment and validation of a prognostic pomogram in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma treated with intensity modulated radiotherapy: a real world study.

BACKGROUND: To establish a prognostic model to predict the overall survival (OS) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). METHODS: The unresectable HCC patients treated with IMRT were retrospectively analyzed and randomized into development cohort (n = 237) and validation cohort (n = 103) in a 7:3 ratio. We developed a prognosis model with the multivariate Cox regression analysis in the development cohort to derive the predictive nomogram, which was then validated in the validation cohort. Model performance was evaluated by the c-index, the area under curve(AUC) and the calibration plot. RESULTS: A total of 340 patients were enrolled. Tumor numbers > 3 (HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.21-2.37), AFP ≥ 400 ng/ml (HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.10-2.10), PLT < 100 × 10^9(HR = 1.7495% CI = 1.11-2.73), ALP > 150U/L (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.15-2.37) and prior surgery (HR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.43-0.93) were independent prognostic factors. The nomogram based on independent factors was constructed. The c-index for OS prediction was 0.658 (95% CI, 0.647-0.804) and 0.683 (95% CI, 0.580-0.785) in the development and validation cohort, respectively. The nomogram demonstrated good discriminative ability with AUC rates of 0.726, 0.739 and 0.753 at 1-year, 2-year and 3-year models in the development cohort, and 0.715, 0.756 and 0.780 in the validation cohort, respectively. Additionally, good prognostic discrimination of the nomogram is also reflected in stratifying patients into two subgroups with distinct prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: We constructed a prognostic nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with unresectable HCC treated with IMRT.

Non-classic radiation-induced liver disease after intensity-modulated radiotherapy for Child-Pugh grade B patients with locally advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of classic radiation-induced liver disease (cRILD) has been significantly reduced. However, non-classic radiation-induced liver disease (ncRILD) remains a major concern following radiotherapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study evaluated the incidence of ncRILD following intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for Child-Pugh grade B (CP-B) patients with locally advanced HCC and established a nomogram for predicting ncRILD probability. METHODS: Seventy-five CP-B patients with locally advanced HCC treated with IMRT between September 2014 and July 2021 were included. The max tumor size was 8.39 cm ± 5.06, and the median prescribed dose was 53.24 Gy ± 7.26. Treatment-related hepatotoxicity was evaluated within three months of completing IMRT. A nomogram model was formulated to predict the probability of ncRILD, using univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Among CP-B patients with locally advanced HCC, ncRILD occurred in 17 (22.7%) patients. Two patients (2.7%) exhibited a transaminase elevation of ≥ G3, fourteen (18.7%) exhibited a Child-Pugh score increase of ≥ 2, and one (1.3%) demonstrated both a transaminase elevation of ≥ G3 and a Child-Pugh score increase of ≥ 2. No cRILD cases were observed. A mean dose to the normal liver of ≥ 15.1 Gy was used as the cutoff for ncRILD. Multivariate analysis revealed that the prothrombin time before IMRT, tumour number, and mean dose to the normal liver were independent risk factors for ncRILD. The nomogram established on the basis of these risk factors displayed exceptional predictive performance (AUC = 0.800, 95% CI 0.674-0.926). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of ncRILD following IMRT for CP-B patients with locally advanced HCC was acceptable. A nomogram based on prothrombin time before IMRT, tumour number, and mean dose to the normal liver accurately predicted the probability of ncRILD in these patients.

A novel signature constructed by super-enhancer-related genes for the prediction of prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma and associated with immune infiltration.

Background: Super-enhancer (SE) refers to a regulatory element with super transcriptional activity, which can enrich transcription factors and drive gene expression. SE-related genes play an important role in the pathogenesis of malignant tumors, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: The SE-related genes were obtained from the human super-enhancer database (SEdb). Data from the transcriptome analysis and related clinical information with HCC were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) database. The upregulated SE-related genes from TCGA-LIHC were identified by the DESeq2R package. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to construct a four-gene prognostic signature. According to the median risk score, HCC patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk group patients. Results: The Kaplan-Meier (KM) curve showed that a significantly worse prognosis was found for the high-risk group (P<0.001). In the TCGA-LIHC dataset, the area under the curve (AUC) values were 0.737, 0.662, and 0.667 for the model predicting overall survival (OS) over 1-, 3-, and 5- years, respectively, indicating the good prediction ability of our prediction model. This model's prognostic value was further validated in the LIRI-JP dataset and HCC samples (n=65). Furthermore, we found that higher infiltration level of M0 macrophages and upregulated of CTLA4 and PD1 in the high-risk group, implying that immunotherapy could be effective for those patients. Conclusion: These results provide further evidence that the unique SE-related gene model could accurately predict the prognosis of HCC.

Prognostic value of a nomogram based on peripheral blood immune parameters in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: For patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC), intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) has become one of the options for clinical local treatment. Immune parameters, including platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and systemic immune inflammatory (SII), predict survival in various cancers. This study aimed to determine whether peripheral immune parameters can predict survival in patients with uHCC undergoing IMRT and establish a clinically useful prognostic nomogram for survival prediction. METHODS: The clinical data of 309 HCC patients were retrospectively analyzed and randomly divided into training (n = 216) and validation (n = 93) cohorts. PLR, NLR and SII were collected before and after IMRT. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors affecting survival, which were used to generate a nomogram. RESULTS: The median survival was 16.3 months, and significant increases in PLR, NLR, and SII were observed after IMRT (P < 0.001). High levels of immune parameters were associated with poor prognosis (P < 0.001); enlarged spleen, Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage (B and C), post-SII, and delta-NLR were independent risk factors for survival and were included in the nomogram, which accurately predicted 3- and 5-year survival. The nomogram was well verified in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of immune parameters are associated with poor prognosis in uHCC patients receiving IMRT. Our nomogram accurately predicts the survival of patients with uHCC receiving IMRT.

A novel risk score based on immune-related genes for hepatocellular carcinoma as a reliable prognostic biomarker and correlated with immune infiltration.

Background: Immunological-related genes (IRGs) play a critical role in the immune microenvironment of tumors. Our study aimed to develop an IRG-based survival prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients and to investigate the impact of IRGs on the immune microenvironment. Methods: Differentially expressed IRGs were obtained from The Genomic Data Commons Data Portal (TCGA) and the immunology database and analysis portal (ImmPort). The univariate Cox regression was used to identify the IRGs linked to overall survival (OS), and a Lasso-regularized Cox proportional hazard model was constructed. The International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) database was used to verify the prediction model. ESTIMATE and CIBERSORT were used to estimate immune cell infiltration in the tumor immune microenvironment (TIME). RNA sequencing was performed on HCC tissue specimens to confirm mRNA expression. Results: A total of 401 differentially expressed IRGs were identified, and 63 IRGs were found related to OS on the 237 up-regulated IRGs by univariate Cox regression analyses. Finally, five IRGs were selected by the LASSO Cox model, including SPP1, BIRC5, STC2, GLP1R, and RAET1E. This prognostic model demonstrated satisfactory predictive value in the ICGC dataset. The risk score was an independent predictive predictor for OS in HCC patients. Immune-related analysis showed that the immune infiltration level in the high-risk group was higher, suggesting that the 5-IRG signature may play an important role in mediating immune escape and immune resistance in the TIME of HCC. Finally, we confirmed the 5-IRG signature is highly expressed in 65 HCC patients with good predictive power. Conclusion: We established and verified a new prognosis model for HCC patients based on survival-related IRGs, and the signature could provide new insights into the prognosis of HCC.

Efficacy and safety of radiotherapy plus anti-PD1 versus transcatheter arterial chemoembolization plus sorafenib for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a real-world study.

BACKGROUND: The combination of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) plus sorafenib prolonged progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) than sorafenib or TACE monotherapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study assessed the efficacy and safety of radiotherapy (RT) plus monoclonal antibody against programmed cell death 1 (anti-PD1) versus TACE plus sorafenib for patients with advanced HCC. METHODS: Patients with advanced HCC who treated with RT plus anti-PD1 and TACE plus sorafenib were enrolled. Objective response rate (ORR), PFS, disease control rate (DCR) and OS were calculated to assess the antitumor response and the treatment-related adverse events to the safety. RESULTS: Between January 2018 to March 2021, 37 patients underwent RT plus anti-PD1 and 41 patients underwent TACE plus sorafenib. The baseline characteristics between the two groups were comparable. The ORR and DCR were significantly higher in the RT + PD1 group than the TACE plus sorafenib group according to RECIST 1.1 (54.05% vs. 12.20%, P < 0.001; 70.27% vs. 46.37%, P = 0.041; respectively) and according to mRECIST (56.76% vs. 31.71%, P = 0.039; 70.27% vs. 46.37%, P = 0.041; respectively). RT plus anti-PD1 provided significantly better PFS (HR, 0.51; 95% CI 0.30-0.86; P = 0.017) than TACE plus sorafenib. Moreover, patients with RT plus anti-PD1 had significantly higher 3-, 6-, and 9-month OS rates than those with TACE plus sorafenib(97.3% vs. 92.30%, P < 0.001; 91.89% vs. 68.60%, P < 0.001; 75.5% vs. 60.60%, P < 0.001; respectively). The median OS was more favorable 17.4 months for the RT + PD1 group and 11.9 months for the TACE plus sorafenib group. No treatment-related death was observed. Grade 3 or more treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) occurred significantly less in patients in the RT + PD1 group than the TACE plus sorafenib group (29.7% vs. 75.6%, P < 0.001), and all TRAEs were manageable. CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world study, RT plus anti-PD1 showed significantly promising efficacy and manageable safety than TACE plus sorafenib in patients with advanced HCC. Toxicities were manageable, with no unexpected safety signals. The study provides evidence on a new therapeutic method in the treatment of advanced HCC.