30-day mortality among very old patients admitted to European intensive care units for major trauma.

INTRODUCTION: Cases of major trauma in the very old (over 80 years) are increasingly common in the intensive care unit. Predicting outcome is challenging in this group of patients as chronological age is a poor marker of health and poor predictor of outcome. Increasingly, decisions are guided with the use of organ dysfunction scores of both the acute condition (e.g. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score) and chronic health issues (e.g. clinical frailty scale, (CFS)). Recent work suggests that increased CFS is associated with a worse outcome in elderly major trauma patients. We aimed to test whether this association held true in the very old (over 80) or whether SOFA had a stronger association with 30-day outcome. METHODS: Data from the VIP-1 and VIP-2 studies for patients over 80 years old with major trauma admissions were merged. These participants were recruited from 20 countries across Europe. Baseline characteristics, level of care provided and outcome (ICU and 30-day mortality) were summarised. Uni- and multi- variable regression analysis were undertaken to determine associations between CFS and SOFA score in the first 24-hours, type of major trauma and outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 8062 acute patients recruited to the two VIP studies, 498 patients were admitted to intensive care because of major trauma. Median age was 84 years; median SOFA score was 6 (IQR 3,9) and median CFS was 3 (IQR 2,5). Survival to 30-days was 54%. Median and inter-quartile range of CFS was the same in survivors and non-survivors. In the logistic regression analysis, CFS was not associated with increased mortality. SOFA score (p<0.001) and trauma with head injury (p<0.01) were associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Major trauma admissions in the very old are not uncommon and 30-day mortality is high. We found that CFS was not a helpful predictor of mortality. SOFA and trauma with head injury were associated with worse outcomes in this patient group.

The Neonatal and Paediatric Pharmacokinetics of Antimicrobials study (NAPPA): investigating amoxicillin, benzylpenicillin, flucloxacillin and piperacillin pharmacokinetics from birth to adolescence.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacokinetic (PK) data underlying paediatric penicillin dosing remain limited, especially in critical care. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of the Neonatal and Paediatric Pharmacokinetics of Antimicrobials study (NAPPA) was to characterize PK profiles of commonly used penicillins using data obtained during routine care, to further understanding of PK variability and inform future evidence-based dosing. METHODS: NAPPA was a multicentre study of amoxicillin, co-amoxiclav, benzylpenicillin, flucloxacillin and piperacillin/tazobactam. Patients were recruited with informed consent. Antibiotic dosing followed standard of care. PK samples were obtained opportunistically or at optimal times, frozen and analysed using UPLC with tandem MS. Pharmacometric analysis was undertaken using NONMEM software (v7.3). Model-based simulations (n = 10 000) tested PTA with British National Formulary for Children (BNFC) and WHO dosing. The study had ethical approval. RESULTS: For the combined IV PK model, 963 PK samples from 370 participants were analysed simultaneously incorporating amoxicillin, benzylpenicillin, flucloxacillin and piperacillin data. BNFC high-dose regimen simulations gave these PTA results (median fT>MIC at breakpoints of specified pathogens): amoxicillin 100% (Streptococcus pneumoniae); benzylpenicillin 100% (Group B Streptococcus); flucloxacillin 48% (MSSA); and piperacillin 100% (Pseudomonas aeruginosa). Oral population PK models for flucloxacillin and amoxicillin enabled estimation of first-order absorption rate constants (1.16 h-1 and 1.3 h-1) and bioavailability terms (62.7% and 58.7%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: NAPPA represents, to our knowledge, the largest prospective combined paediatric penicillin PK study undertaken to date, and the first paediatric flucloxacillin oral PK model. The PTA results provide evidence supportive of BNFC high-dose IV regimens for amoxicillin, benzylpenicillin and piperacillin.

The clinical frailty scale - does it predict outcome of the very-old in UK ICUs?

Introduction: The age of patients admitted into critical care in the UK is increasing. Clinical decisions for very-old patients, usually defined as over 80, can be challenging. Clinicians are frequently asked to predict outcomes as part of discussions around the pros and cons of an intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Measures of overall health in old age, such as the clinical frailty scale (CFS), are increasingly used to help guide these discussions. We aimed to understand the characteristics of the very-old critically unwell population in the UK and the associations between frailty and outcome of an ICU admission in our healthcare system (National Health Service, NHS). Methods: Baseline characteristics, ICU interventions and outcomes (ICU- and 30-day mortality) were recorded for sequential admissions of very old patients to UK ICUs as part of the European VIP 1 and 2 studies. Patient characteristics, interventions and outcome measures were compared by frailty group using standard statistical tests. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was undertaken to test association between baseline characteristics, admission type and outcome. Results: 1858 participants were enrolled from 95 ICUs in the UK. The median age was 83. The median CFS was 4 (IQR 3-5). 30-day survival was significantly lower in the frail group (CFS > 4, 58%) compared to vulnerable (CFS = 4, 65%) and fit (CFS < 4 68%, p = .004). Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, reason for admission and CFS were all independently associated with increased 30-day mortality (p < .01). Conclusion: In the UK, frailty is associated with an increase in mortality at 30-days following an ICU admission. At moderate frailty (CFS 5-6), three out of every five patients admitted survived to 30-days. This is a similar mortality to septic shock.

Population Pharmacokinetic Study of Benzylpenicillin in Critically Unwell Adults.

Pharmacokinetics are highly variable in critical illness, and suboptimal antibiotic exposure is associated with treatment failure. Benzylpenicillin is a commonly used beta-lactam antibiotic, and pharmacokinetic data of its use in critically ill adults are lacking. We performed a pharmacokinetic study of critically unwell patients receiving benzylpenicillin, using data from the ABDose study. Population pharmacokinetic modelling was undertaken using NONMEM version 7.5, and simulations using the final model were undertaken to optimize the pharmacokinetic profile. We included 77 samples from 12 participants. A two-compartment structural model provided the best fit, with allometric weight scaling for all parameters and a creatinine covariate effect on clearance. Simulations (n = 10,000) demonstrated that 25% of simulated patients receiving 2.4 g 4-hourly failed to achieve a conservative target of 50% of the dosing interval with free drug above the clinical breakpoint MIC (2 mg/L). Simulations demonstrated that target attainment was improved with continuous or extended dosing. To our knowledge, this study represents the first full population PK analysis of benzylpenicillin in critically ill adults.

Comparative assessment of viral dynamic models for SARS-CoV-2 for pharmacodynamic assessment in early treatment trials.

Pharmacometric analyses of time series viral load data may detect drug effects with greater power than approaches using single time points. Because SARS-CoV-2 viral load rapidly rises and then falls, viral dynamic models have been used. We compared different modelling approaches when analysing Phase II-type viral dynamic data. Using two SARS-CoV-2 datasets of viral load starting within 7 days of symptoms, we fitted the slope-intercept exponential decay (SI), reduced target cell limited (rTCL), target cell limited (TCL) and TCL with eclipse phase (TCLE) models using nlmixr. Model performance was assessed via Bayesian information criterion (BIC), visual predictive checks (VPCs), goodness-of-fit plots, and parameter precision. The most complex (TCLE) model had the highest BIC for both datasets. The estimated viral decline rate was similar for all models except the TCL model for dataset A with a higher rate (median [range] day-1 : dataset A; 0.63 [0.56-1.84]; dataset B: 0.81 [0.74-0.85]). Our findings suggest simple models should be considered during pharmacodynamic model development.

Diagnostic Challenges in Sepsis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Sepsis is a leading cause of death worldwide. Groundbreaking international collaborative efforts have culminated in the widely accepted surviving sepsis guidelines, with iterative improvements in management strategies and definitions providing important advances in care for patients. Key to the diagnosis of sepsis is identification of infection, and whilst the diagnostic criteria for sepsis is now clear, the diagnosis of infection remains a challenge and there is often discordance between clinician assessments for infection. RECENT FINDINGS: We review the utility of common biochemical, microbiological and radiological tools employed by clinicians to diagnose infection and explore the difficulty of making a diagnosis of infection in severe inflammatory states through illustrative case reports. Finally, we discuss some of the novel and emerging approaches in diagnosis of infection and sepsis. SUMMARY: While prompt diagnosis and treatment of sepsis is essential to improve outcomes in sepsis, there remains no single tool to reliably identify or exclude infection. This contributes to unnecessary antimicrobial use that is harmful to individuals and populations. There is therefore a pressing need for novel solutions. Machine learning approaches using multiple diagnostic and clinical inputs may offer a potential solution but as yet these approaches remain experimental.

Systematic Review and Patient-Level Meta-Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Dynamics to Model Response to Antiviral Therapies.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral loads change rapidly following symptom onset, so to assess antivirals it is important to understand the natural history and patient factors influencing this. We undertook an individual patient-level meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics in humans to describe viral dynamics and estimate the effects of antivirals used to date. This systematic review identified case reports, case series, and clinical trial data from publications between January 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020, following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards (Cox-PH) regression model of time to viral clearance was fitted to respiratory and stool samples. A simplified four parameter nonlinear mixed-effects (NLME) model was fitted to viral load trajectories in all sampling sites and covariate modeling of respiratory viral dynamics was performed to quantify time-dependent drug effects. Patient-level data from 645 individuals (age 1 month to 100 years) with 6,316 viral loads were extracted. Model-based simulations of viral load trajectories in samples from the upper and lower respiratory tract, stool, blood, urine, ocular secretions, and breast milk were generated. Cox-PH modeling showed longer time to viral clearance in older patients, men, and those with more severe disease. Remdesivir was associated with faster viral clearance (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 9.19, P < 0.001), as well as interferon, particularly when combined with ribavirin (AHR = 2.2, P = 0.015; AHR = 6.04, P = 0.006). Combination therapy should be further investigated. A viral dynamic dataset and NLME model for designing and analyzing antiviral trials has been established.

Infection, Sepsis and the Inflammatory Response: Mechanisms and Therapy.

Sepsis secondary to bacterial infection remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Recent decades have seen the evolution of international collaborations to improve care for these patients and identify areas for research. In this article we discuss the pathophysiology underlying the condition, review the current recommended management strategies, discuss areas of controversy, and highlight the need for ongoing research, particularly in diagnostics.

ß-Lactam antimicrobial pharmacokinetics and target attainment in critically ill patients aged 1 day to 90 years: the ABDose study.

BACKGROUND: The pharmacokinetics of ß-lactam antibiotics in critical illness remain poorly characterized, particularly in neonates, children and the elderly. We undertook a pharmacokinetic study of commonly used ß-lactam antibiotics in critically ill patients of all ages. The aims were to produce a whole-life ß-lactam pharmacokinetic model and describe the extent to which standard doses achieve pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic targets associated with clinical cure. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 212 critically ill participants with an age range from 1 day (gestational age 24 weeks) to 90 years were recruited from a UK hospital, providing 1339 pharmacokinetic samples. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was undertaken using non-linear mixed-effects modelling (NONMEM) for each drug. Pooled data were used to estimate maturation and decline of ß-lactam pharmacokinetics throughout life. RESULTS: Pharmacokinetic models for eight drugs were described, including what is thought to be the first benzylpenicillin model in critically ill adults. We estimate that 50% of adult ß-lactam clearance is achieved by 43 weeks post-menstrual age (chronological plus gestational age). Fifty percent of decline from peak adult clearance occurs by 71 years. Paediatric participants were significantly less likely than adults to achieve pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic targets with standard antibiotic doses (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We believe this to be the first prospective whole-life antibiotic pharmacokinetic study in the critically ill. The study provides further evidence that standard antibiotic doses fail to achieve pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic targets associated with clinical success in adults, children and neonates. Maturation and decline parameters estimated from this study could be adopted as a standard for future prospective studies.

Using Real-World Data to Guide Ustekinumab Dosing Strategies for Psoriasis: A Prospective Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Study.

Variation in response to biologic therapy for inflammatory diseases, such as psoriasis, is partly driven by variation in drug exposure. Real-world psoriasis data were used to develop a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model for the first-line therapeutic antibody ustekinumab. The impact of differing dosing strategies on response was explored. Data were collected from a UK prospective multicenter observational cohort (491 patients on ustekinumab monotherapy, drug levels, and anti-drug antibody measurements on 797 serum samples, 1,590 measurements of Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI)). Ustekinumab PKs were described with a linear one-compartment model. A maximum effect (Emax ) model inhibited progression of psoriatic skin lesions in the turnover PD mechanism describing PASI evolution while on treatment. A mixture model on half-maximal effective concentration identified a potential nonresponder group, with simulations suggesting that, in future, the model could be incorporated into a Bayesian therapeutic drug monitoring "dashboard" to individualize dosing and improve treatment outcomes.

Antimicrobial Resistance: We Must Pursue a Collaborative, Global Approach and Use a "One Health" Approach.

Treating infection is a key part of the work of most clinicians [...].

Scaling beta-lactam antimicrobial pharmacokinetics from early life to old age.

AIMS: Beta-lactam dose optimization in critical care is a current priority. We aimed to review the pharmacokinetics (PK) of three commonly used beta-lactams (amoxicillin ± clavulanate, piperacillin-tazobactam and meropenem) to compare PK parameters reported in critically and noncritically ill neonates, children and adults, and to investigate whether allometric and maturation scaling principles could be applied to describe changes in PK parameters through life. METHODS: A systematic review of PK studies of the three drugs was undertaken using MEDLINE and EMBASE. PK parameters and summary statistics were extracted and scaled using allometric principles to 70 kg individual for comparison. Pooled data were used to model clearance maturation and decline using a sigmoidal (Hill) function. RESULTS: A total of 130 papers were identified. Age ranged from 29 weeks to 82 years and weight from 0.9-200 kg. PK parameters from critically ill populations were reported with wider confidence intervals than those in healthy volunteers, indicating greater PK variability in critical illness. The standard allometric size and sigmoidal maturation model adequately described increasing clearance in neonates, and a sigmoidal model was also used to describe decline in older age. Adult weight-adjusted clearance was achieved at approximately 2 years postmenstrual age. Changes in volume of distribution were well described by the standard allometric model, although amoxicillin data suggested a relatively higher volume of distribution in neonates. CONCLUSIONS: Critical illness is associated with greater PK variability than in healthy volunteers. The maturation models presented will be useful for optimizing beta-lactam dosing, although a prospective, age-inclusive study is warranted for external validation.

The 'top 100' drugs and classes in England: an updated 'starter formulary' for trainee prescribers.

AIMS: Prescribing is a complex skill required of doctors and, increasingly, other healthcare professionals. Use of a personal formulary can help to develop this skill. In 2006-9, we developed a core list of the 100 most commonly prescribed drugs. Our aim in the present study was to update this 'starter formulary' to ensure its continued relevance for prescriber training. METHODS: We analysed large contemporary primary and secondary care datasets to identify the most frequently prescribed medicinal products. Items were classified into natural groups, broadly following their British National Formulary classification. The resulting drug groups were included in the core list if they comprised ≥0.1% prescriptions in both settings or ≥0.2-0.3% prescriptions in one setting. Drugs from emergency guidelines that did not qualify by prescribing frequency completed the list. RESULTS: Over 1 billion primary care items and approximately 1.8 million secondary care prescriptions were analysed. The updated list comprises 81 drug groups commonly prescribed in both settings; six from primary care; seven from secondary care; and six from emergency guidelines. Eighty-eight per cent of the formulary was unchanged. Notable changes include entry of newer anti-epileptics and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and exit of phenytoin and thiazolidinediones. CONCLUSIONS: The relative stability of the core drug list over 9 years and the current update ensure that learning based on this list remains relevant to practice. Trainee prescribers may be encouraged to use this 'starter formulary' to develop a sound basis of prescribing knowledge and skills that they can subsequently apply more widely.

Understanding and managing medication in elderly people.

Ageing alters drug handling by the body (pharmacokinetics) and response to medications (pharmacodynamics). Multiple comorbidities increase the risk of adverse drug reactions and medication burden, with increased potential for drug interactions. Elderly people are seldom included in clinical trials, so underestimation of benefits and overestimation of risk may lead to under-treatment. Cognitive and functional changes associated with ageing may make it difficult for elderly people to adhere to treatment regimens. In this review, we consider these issues, with particular reference to drugs prescribed for gynaecology patients (the 'gynaecology formulary'). It will focus on key areas of gynaecological practice, including prescribing anticholinergic drugs, hormone treatments and anticancer drugs, and perioperative issues relating to anaesthesia, analgesia and anticoagulation. Implications of common comorbidities, including osteoporosis, diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, for prescribing in gynaecological patients will also be considered.

Antibacterial therapeutic drug monitoring in cerebrospinal fluid: difficulty in achieving adequate drug concentrations.

This report illustrates the difficulty in managing CNS infection in neurosurgical patients, the altered drug pharmacokinetics associated with critical illness, and the role that therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of CSF can play in assisting clinical decision making. The authors present a case of external ventricular drain-related ventriculitis in a critically ill patient who initially presented with a subarachnoid hemorrhage. They discuss the physiological changes found in such patients, in particular augmented renal clearance (demonstrated in this patient by a measured creatinine clearance of 375 ml/min/1.73 m(2)), noting the effect this had on drug pharmacokinetics and leading to dosing requirements 2-3 times those recommended in standard regimens. The authors consider the bacterial "kill" characteristics of 2 different antibacterial agents (meropenem and vancomycin) and describe the unique approach of using plasma and CSF TDM to achieve optimal drug exposure at the site of infection while limiting toxic side effects. The authors demonstrate that simply using plasma TDM as a surrogate marker for drug concentration in the CNS may lead to underdosing, exemplified in this patient by CSF vancomycin concentrations as little as 13% of that in plasma. Finally, by measuring CSF and plasma ratios, the authors illustrate the disparity in pharmacokinetic properties between drugs, reminding the clinician of the importance of CNS penetration when selecting antibacterial agents in such cases. This work raises an important hypothesis in the accurate prescription of antibacterial agents in neurosurgical critical care, namely underdosing in the context of augmented elimination and impaired target site penetration. However, prior to any recommendations regarding empirical dose modification, more data are clearly needed, particularly with respect to the safety and efficacy of such an approach. In this respect, the authors would advocate further research using TDM in the management of CNS infection in this setting, in addition to work defining plasma and CSF concentrations associated with antibacterial efficacy and toxicity.