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INTRODUCTION: The burden of multimorbidity is recognised increasingly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), creating a strong emphasis on the need for effective evidence-based interventions. Core outcome sets (COS) appropriate for the study of multimorbidity in LMICs do not presently exist. These are required to standardise reporting and contribute to a consistent and cohesive evidence-base to inform policy and practice. We describe the development of two COS for intervention trials aimed at preventing and treating multimorbidity in adults in LMICs. METHODS: To generate a comprehensive list of relevant prevention and treatment outcomes, we conducted a systematic review and qualitative interviews with people with multimorbidity and their caregivers living in LMICs. We then used a modified two-round Delphi process to identify outcomes most important to four stakeholder groups (people with multimorbidity/caregivers, multimorbidity researchers, healthcare professionals and policymakers) with representation from 33 countries. Consensus meetings were used to reach agreement on the two final COS. REGISTRATION: https://www.comet-initiative.org/Studies/Details/1580. RESULTS: The systematic review and qualitative interviews identified 24 outcomes for prevention and 49 for treatment of multimorbidity. An additional 12 prevention and 6 treatment outcomes were added from Delphi round 1. Delphi round 2 surveys were completed by 95 of 132 round 1 participants (72.0%) for prevention and 95 of 133 (71.4%) participants for treatment outcomes. Consensus meetings agreed four outcomes for the prevention COS: (1) adverse events, (2) development of new comorbidity, (3) health risk behaviour and (4) quality of life; and four for the treatment COS: (1) adherence to treatment, (2) adverse events, (3) out-of-pocket expenditure and (4) quality of life. CONCLUSION: Following established guidelines, we developed two COS for trials of interventions for multimorbidity prevention and treatment, specific to adults in LMIC contexts. We recommend their inclusion in future trials to meaningfully advance the field of multimorbidity research in LMICs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020197293.
Subject(s)
Delphi Technique , Developing Countries , Multimorbidity , Humans , Adult , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Qualitative Research , FemaleABSTRACT
Background: Reducing the disease burden of cardiovascular diseases and periodontitis continues to be a priority and dentists are part of the primary care team. However, it is unclear whether Colombian dentists have the necessary knowledge to identify cardiovascular disease risk factors in clinical practice. The main aim of this study was to investigate Colombian dentists' knowledge about common risk factors for cardiovascular disease and periodontitis. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted. A self-administered electronic survey was validated by experts and completed by 232 dentists who practiced in Colombia. Descriptive and multivariate analyzes were performed, including hierarchical cluster analysis. Results: Regarding the identification of shared risk factors for the development of cardiovascular disease or periodontitis, 80.6% identified smoking and 72.8% diabetes. The correct identification of cardiovascular disease risk factors was between 34.9% in the case of eating practices and 78.0% for physical inactivity. Being a woman (79.8%), under 40 years of age (64.0%), not having completed a postgraduate degree (68.5%), and working in private institutions (88.8%) were the characteristics of dentists that best identified common risk factors for both cardiovascular disease and periodontitis. Conclusions: Colombian dentists had good knowledge of common risk factors for both cardiovascular diseases and periodontitis, but limited knowledge about cardiovascular disease risk factors. Younger dentists better identified risk factors. Conversely, older, more experience, and more specialized practitioners could benefit from more training about cardiovascular risk factors in order to truly be part of multidisciplinary teams in primary care. Key words:Dentists, Cardiovascular Diseases, Periodontitis, Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, Patient Care Team.
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AIMS: To external validate the SCORE2, AHA/ACC Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE), Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Non-Laboratory INTERHEART Risk Score (NL-IHRS), Globorisk-LAC, and WHO prediction models and compare their discrimination and calibration capacity. METHODS: Validation in individuals aged 40-69 years with at least 10 years follow-up and without baseline use of statins or cardiovascular diseases from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology prospective cohort study (PURE)-Colombia. For discrimination, the C-statistic, and Receiver Operating Characteristic curves with the integrated area under the curve (AUCi) were used and compared. For calibration, the smoothed time-to-event method was used, choosing a recalibration factor based on the integrated calibration index (ICI). In the NL-IHRS, linear regressions were used. RESULTS: In 3,802 participants (59.1% women), baseline risk ranged from 4.8% (SCORE2 women) to 55.7% (NL-IHRS). After a mean follow-up of 13.2 years, 234 events were reported (4.8 cases per 1000 person-years). The C-statistic ranged between 0.637 (0.601-0.672) in NL-IHRS and 0.767 (0.657-0.877) in AHA/ACC PCE. Discrimination was similar between AUCi. In women, higher overprediction was observed in the Globorisk-LAC (61%) and WHO (59%). In men, higher overprediction was observed in FRS (72%) and AHA/ACC PCE (71%). Overestimations were corrected after multiplying by a factor derived from the ICI. CONCLUSIONS: Six prediction models had a similar discrimination capacity, supporting their use after multiplying by a correction factor. If blood tests are unavailable, NL-IHRS is a reasonable option. Our results suggest that these models could be used in other countries of Latin America after correcting the overestimations with a multiplying factor.
Detecting people at high risk of cardiovascular disease and implementing preventive interventions in this population is a key strategy in primary prevention. Recently, new risk calculation tools have been developed, but before their application and routine use in populations different from those where it was developed, it's necessary to validate them. The recommendations for predicting cardiovascular risk in Colombia's guidelines are based on studies with noteworthy limitations. This study involving 3,802 healthy individuals in Colombia supports the recommendation of using these prediction models. The estimation result should be multiplied by a correction factor, because most of the prediction models overestimate cardiovascular risk. For example, the correction factors suggested in women for AHA/ACC PCE and SCORE2 are 0.54 and 0.75, respectively. In men, the correction factors suggested in AHA/ACC PCE and SCORE2 are 0.28 and 0.61, respectively. Therefore, the present study with a contemporary population provides additional evidence to update these recommendations in Colombia and perhaps in Latin America.
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BACKGROUND: The focus of most epidemiological studies has been mortality or clinical events, with less information on activity limitations related to basic daily functions and their consequences. Standardised data from multiple countries at different economic levels in different regions of the world on activity limitations and their associations with clinical outcomes are sparse. We aimed to quantify the prevalence of activity limitations and use of assistive devices and the association of limitations with adverse outcomes in 25 countries grouped by different economic levels. METHODS: In this analysis, we obtained data from individuals in 25 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study (175 660 participants). In the PURE study, individuals aged 35-70 years who intended to continue living in their current home for a further 4 years were invited to complete a questionnaire on activity limitations. Participant follow-up was planned once every 3 years either by telephone or in person. The activity limitation screen consisted of questions on self-reported difficulty with walking, grasping, bending, seeing close, seeing far, speaking, hearing, and use of assistive devices (gait, vision, and hearing aids). We estimated crude prevalence of self-reported activity limitations and use of assistive devices, and prevalence standardised by age and sex. We used logistic regression to additionally adjust prevalence for education and socioeconomic factors and to estimate the probability of activity limitations and assistive devices by age, sex, and country income. We used Cox frailty models to evaluate the association between each activity limitation with mortality and clinical events (cardiovascular disease, heart failure, pneumonia, falls, and cancer). The PURE study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03225586. FINDINGS: Between Jan 12, 2001, and May 6, 2019, 175 584 individuals completed at least one question on the activity limitation questionnaire (mean age 50·6 years [SD 9·8]; 103 625 [59%] women). Of the individuals who completed all questions, mean follow-up was 10·7 years (SD 4·4). The most common self-reported activity limitations were difficulty with bending (23 921 [13·6%] of 175 515 participants), seeing close (22 532 [13·4%] of 167 801 participants), and walking (22 805 [13·0%] of 175 554 participants); prevalence of limitations was higher with older age and among women. The prevalence of all limitations standardised by age and sex, with the exception of hearing, was highest in low-income countries and middle-income countries, and this remained consistent after adjustment for socioeconomic factors. The use of gait, visual, and hearing aids was lowest in low-income countries and middle-income countries, particularly among women. The prevalence of seeing close limitation was four times higher (6257 [16·5%] of 37 926 participants vs 717 [4·0%] of 18 039 participants) and the prevalence of seeing far limitation was five times higher (4003 [10·6%] of 37 923 participants vs 391 [2·2%] of 18 038 participants) in low-income countries than in high-income countries, but the prevalence of glasses use in low-income countries was half that in high-income countries. Walking limitation was most strongly associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1·32 [95% CI 1·25-1·39]) and most consistently associated with other clinical events, with other notable associations observed between seeing far limitation and mortality, grasping limitation and cardiovascular disease, bending limitation and falls, and between speaking limitation and stroke. INTERPRETATION: The global prevalence of activity limitations is substantially higher in women than men and in low-income countries and middle-income countries compared with high-income countries, coupled with a much lower use of gait, visual, and hearing aids. Strategies are needed to prevent and mitigate activity limitations globally, with particular emphasis on low-income countries and women. FUNDING: Funding sources are listed at the end of the Article.
Subject(s)
Activities of Daily Living , Developing Countries , Self-Help Devices , Adult , Aged , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Developed Countries/statistics & numerical data , Developing Countries/statistics & numerical data , Income/statistics & numerical data , Prevalence , Prospective Studies , Self-Help Devices/statistics & numerical data , Socioeconomic Factors , Observational Studies as TopicABSTRACT
Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to impart a large burden on the global population, especially in lower income countries where affordability limits the use of cardiovascular medicines. A fixed dose combination strategy of at least 2 blood pressure lowering medications and a statin with aspirin in a single pill has been shown to reduce the risk of incident CVD by 38% in primary prevention in a recent meta-analysis. We report the in-trial (median follow-up: 5 years) cost-effectiveness of a fixed dose combination (FDC) pill in different income groups based on data from that meta-analysis. Methods: Countries were categorized using World Bank economic groups: Lower Middle Income Countries (LMIC), Upper Middle Income Countries (UMIC) and High Income Countries (HIC). Country specific costs were obtained for hospitalized events, procedures, and non-study medications (2020 USD). FDC price was based on the cheapest equivalent substitute (CES) for each component. Findings: For the CES-FDC pill versus control the difference in cost was $346 (95% CI: $294-$398) per participant in Lower Middle Income Countries, $838 (95% CI: $781-$895) in Upper Middle Income Countries and $42 (95% CI: -$155 to $239) (cost-neutral) in High Income Countries. During the study period the CES-FDC pill was associated with incremental gain in quality-adjusted life years of 0.06 (95% CI: 0.04-0.08) resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $5767 (95% CI: 5735-$5799), $13,937 (95% CI: $13,893-$14,041) and $700 (95% CI: $662-$738) respectively. In subgroups analyses, the highest 10 years CVD risk subgroup had ICERs of $2033, $7322 and -$6000/QALY. Interpretation: A FDC pill produced at CES costs is cost-neutral in HIC. Governments of LMI and UMI countries should assess these results based on the ICER threshold accepted in their own country and own specific health care priorities but should consider prioritizing this strategy for patients with high 10 years CVD risk as a first step. Funding: Population Health Research Institute.
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BACKGROUND: Periodontal disease may be an important modifiable risk factor for stroke. AIMS: To determine the contribution of markers of periodontal disease to stroke risk globally, within subpopulations, and by stroke subtypes. METHODS: INTERSTROKE is the largest international case-control study of risk factors for first acute stroke. All participants were asked a standardised set of questions about the presence or absence of painful teeth, painful gums or lost teeth, as markers of periodontal disease, within the previous year. The total number of reported variables was calculated per participant. Multivariable conditional logistic regression examined the association of these variables with acute stroke. RESULTS: In 26901 participants, across 32 countries, there was a significant multivariable association between lost teeth and stroke (OR 1.11, 95 % CI 1.01 - 1.22), but not painful teeth (OR 1.00, 95 % CI 0.91-1.10) or painful gums (OR 1.01, 95 % CI 0.89 - 1.14). When these symptoms were considered together there was a graded increased odds of stroke, with the largest magnitude of association seen if a patient reported all three of painful teeth, painful gums and lost teeth (OR 1.34, 95 % CI 1.00 - 1.79). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that features of severe periodontal disease are a risk factor for acute stroke. Periodontal disease should be considered as a potentially modifiable risk factor for stroke.
Subject(s)
Periodontal Diseases , Stroke , Tooth Loss , Humans , Risk Factors , Male , Female , Periodontal Diseases/epidemiology , Periodontal Diseases/diagnosis , Periodontal Diseases/complications , Case-Control Studies , Middle Aged , Aged , Risk Assessment , Stroke/diagnosis , Stroke/epidemiology , Tooth Loss/epidemiology , Tooth Loss/diagnosis , Adult , Toothache/epidemiology , Toothache/diagnosisABSTRACT
Background: COVID-19 vaccination and shielding targeted hypertensive patients in low and middle income countries. We describe the COVID-19 experiences of hypertensive patients in Colombia and Jamaica and discuss factors associated with vaccine acceptance. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted between December 2021 and February 2022 in 4 randomly selected primary care clinics in Colombia and 10 primary care clinics in Jamaica. Participants in Colombia were randomly selected from an electronic medical record. In Jamaica consecutive participants were selected on clinic days for non-communicable diseases. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were conducted by telephone. Results: 576 participants were recruited (50% Jamaica; 68.5% female). Jamaica's participants were younger (36% vs 23% <60 years) and had a lower proportion of persons with "more than high school" education (17.2% vs 30.3%, p=0.011). Colombia's participants more commonly tested positive for COVID-19 (24.2% vs 6.3%, p<0.001), had a family member or close friend test positive for COVID-19 (54.5% vs, 21.6%; p<0.001), experienced loss of a family member or friend due to COVID-19 (21.5% vs 7.8%, p<0.001) and had vaccination against COVID-19 (90.6% vs 46.7%, p<0.001). Fear of COVID-19 (AOR 2.71, 95% CI 1.20-6.13) and residence in Colombia (AOR 5.88 (95% CI 2.38-14.56) were associated with COVID-19 vaccination. Disruption in health services affecting prescription of medication or access to doctors was low (<10%) for both countries. Conclusion: Health services disruption was low but COVID-19 experiences such as fear of COVID-19 and vaccine acceptance differed significantly between Colombia and Jamaica. Addressing reasons for these differences are important for future pandemic responses.
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BACKGROUND: The association between the glycaemic index and the glycaemic load with type 2 diabetes incidence is controversial. We aimed to evaluate this association in an international cohort with diverse glycaemic index and glycaemic load diets. METHODS: The PURE study is a prospective cohort study of 127 594 adults aged 35-70 years from 20 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. The glycaemic index and the glycaemic load were estimated on the basis of the intake of seven categories of carbohydrate-containing foods. Participants were categorised into quintiles of glycaemic index and glycaemic load. The primary outcome was incident type 2 diabetes. Multivariable Cox Frailty models with random intercepts for study centre were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs). FINDINGS: During a median follow-up of 11·8 years (IQR 9·0-13·0), 7326 (5·7%) incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred. In multivariable adjusted analyses, a diet with a higher glycaemic index was significantly associated with a higher risk of diabetes (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; HR 1·15 [95% CI 1·03-1·29]). Participants in the highest quintile of the glycaemic load had a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes compared with those in the lowest quintile (HR 1·21, 95% CI 1·06-1·37). The glycaemic index was more strongly associated with diabetes among individuals with a higher BMI (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; HR 1·23 [95% CI 1·08-1·41]) than those with a lower BMI (quintile 5 vs quintile 1; 1·10 [0·87-1·39]; p interaction=0·030). INTERPRETATION: Diets with a high glycaemic index and a high glycaemic load were associated with a higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes in a multinational cohort spanning five continents. Our findings suggest that consuming low glycaemic index and low glycaemic load diets might prevent the development of type 2 diabetes. FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the Article.
Subject(s)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Glycemic Index , Glycemic Load , Humans , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/blood , Middle Aged , Female , Male , Glycemic Index/physiology , Prospective Studies , Adult , Aged , Risk Factors , Incidence , Blood Glucose/analysis , Diet , Cohort StudiesABSTRACT
PURPOSE: This study aimed to investigate longitudinal associations between physical activity levels and obesity in adults in Colombia, where participation in large amounts of light-intensity physical activity is a necessity for many people. METHODS: Participation in moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity was assessed from 2005 to 2009, and obesity was assessed from 2011 to 2019 in men and women from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Total physical activity level was categorized as low (<600 MET·min·wk -1 ), medium (600-3000 MET·min·wk -1 ), or high (>3000 MET·min·wk -1 ; 600 MET·min·wk -1 is equivalent to 150 min of moderate activity or 75 min of vigorous activity per week). Obesity was defined as body mass index ≥30 kg·m -2 . Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, socioeconomic status, diet, alcohol, sedentary time, and sleep. RESULTS: The main analysis included 3086 men and women aged 51 ± 9 yr at baseline (mean ± SD). Compared with the low physical activity group, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for obesity was 0.67 (0.53-0.85) in the medium physical activity group and 0.78 (0.62-0.98) in the high physical activity group after adjustment for potential confounders. Smoking is probably a major confounder, and it is noteworthy that similar associations were observed in participants who reported never smoking. CONCLUSIONS: The PURE study is the only prospective cohort study in Colombia. The present analysis is important because it suggests that even the busy people of Colombia could substantially reduce their risk of obesity by participating in moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity.
Subject(s)
Exercise , Obesity , Humans , Colombia/epidemiology , Male , Female , Middle Aged , Obesity/epidemiology , Prospective Studies , Adult , Risk Factors , Body Mass Index , Sedentary Behavior , Rural Population/statistics & numerical data , Longitudinal StudiesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The HOPE 4 trial (Heart Outcomes Prevention and Evaluation 4) investigated the effectiveness of a comprehensive, collaborative model of care, implemented in Colombia and Malaysia, which aimed to reduce cardiovascular disease risk in individuals with hypertension. One component of this intervention was the nomination of a treatment supporter, where participants could select a family member or friend to assist them with their care. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of these individuals on participant outcomes, as well as the relationship dynamics between participants and their treatment supporter. METHODS: Participants in the HOPE 4 intervention group with baseline and 12 months of follow-up were included for analysis. They were divided into Every Visit (n=339) and Subject(s)
Hypertension
, Humans
, Female
, Middle Aged
, Aged
, Hypertension/diagnosis
, Hypertension/drug therapy
, Hypertension/epidemiology
, Blood Pressure
, Medication Adherence
, Risk Factors
, Social Support
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Background: Smoking is a major risk factor for the global burden of stroke. We have previously reported a global population attributable risk (PAR) of stroke of 12.4% associated with current smoking. In this study we aimed to explore the association of current tobacco use with different types of tobacco exposure and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure on the risk of stroke and stroke subtypes, and by regions and country income levels. Methods: The INTERSTROKE study is a case-control study of acute first stroke and was undertaken with 13,462 stroke cases and 13,488 controls recruited between January 11, 2007 and August 8, 2015 in 32 countries worldwide. Association of risk of tobacco use and ETS exposure were analysed with overall stroke, ischemic and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and with TOAST etiological stroke subtypes (large vessel, small vessel, cardioembolism, and undetermined). Findings: Current smoking was associated with an increased risk of all stroke (odds ratio [OR] 1.64, 95% CI 1.46-1.84), and had a stronger association with ischemic stroke (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.61-2.11) than ICH (OR 1.19 95% CI 1.00-1.41). The OR and PAR of stroke among current smokers varied significantly between regions and income levels with high income countries (HIC) having the highest odds (OR 3.02 95% CI 2.24-4.10) and PAR (18.6%, 15.1-22.8%). Among etiological subtypes of ischemic stroke, the strongest association of current smoking was seen for large vessel stroke (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.63-2.87) and undetermined cause (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.55-2.50). Both filtered (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.50-1.99) and non-filtered (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.79-3.77) cigarettes were associated with stroke risk. ETS exposure increased the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner, exposure for more than 10 h per week increased risk for all stroke (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.69-2.27), ischemic stroke (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.59-2.24) and ICH (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.60-2.50). Interpretation: There are significant variations in the magnitude of risk and PAR of stroke according to the types of tobacco used, active and ETS exposure, and countries with different income levels. Specific strategies to discourage tobacco use by any form and to build a smoke free environment should be implemented to ease the global burden of stroke. Funding: The Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Västra Götaland, and through unrestricted grants from several pharmaceutical companies with major contributions from Astra Zeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MERCK, Sharp and Dohme, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, UK Chest, and UK Heart and Stroke.
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Whilst sleep disturbances are associated with stroke, their association with stroke severity is less certain. In the INTERSTROKE study, the association of pre-morbid sleep disturbance with stroke severity and functional outcome following stroke was evaluated. METHODS: INTERSTROKE is an international case-control study of first acute stroke. This analysis included cases who completed a standardized questionnaire concerning nine symptoms of sleep disturbance (sleep onset latency, duration, quality, nocturnal awakening, napping duration, whether a nap was planned, snoring, snorting and breathing cessation) in the month prior to stroke (n = 2361). Two indices were derived representing sleep disturbance (range 0-9) and obstructive sleep apnoea (range 0-3) symptoms. Logistic regression was used to estimate the magnitude of association between symptoms and stroke severity defined by the modified Rankin Score. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 62.9 years, and 42% were female. On multivariable analysis, there was a graded association between increasing number of sleep disturbance symptoms and initially severe stroke (2-3, odds ratio [OR] 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.94; 4-5, OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.23-2.25; >5, OR 2.58, 95% CI 1.83-3.66). Having >5 sleep disturbance symptoms was associated with significantly increased odds of functional deterioration at 1 month (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.01-2.34). A higher obstructive sleep apnoea score was also associated with significantly increased odds of initially severe stroke (2-3, OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.20-1.83) but not functional deterioration at 1 month (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.93-1.52). CONCLUSIONS: Sleep disturbance symptoms were common and associated with an increased odds of severe stroke and functional deterioration. Interventions to modify sleep disturbance may help prevent disabling stroke/improve functional outcomes and should be the subject of future research.
Subject(s)
Severity of Illness Index , Sleep Wake Disorders , Stroke , Humans , Female , Male , Middle Aged , Stroke/complications , Stroke/epidemiology , Sleep Wake Disorders/epidemiology , Sleep Wake Disorders/etiology , Aged , Case-Control StudiesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND Smoking is a major risk factor for the global burden of stroke. We have previously reported a global population attributable risk (PAR) of stroke of 12.4% associated with current smoking. In this study we aimed to explore the association of current tobacco use with different types of tobacco exposure and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure on the risk of stroke and stroke subtypes, and by regions and country income levels. METHODS The INTERSTROKE study is a casecontrol study of acute first stroke and was undertaken with 13,462 stroke cases and 13,488 controls recruited between January 11, 2007 and August 8, 2015 in 32 countries worldwide. Association of risk of tobacco use and ETS exposure were analysed with overall stroke, ischemic and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and with TOAST etiological stroke subtypes (large vessel, small vessel, cardioembolism, and undetermined). FINDINGS Current smoking was associated with an increased risk of all stroke (odds ratio [OR] 1.64, 95% CI 1.461.84), and had a stronger association with ischemic stroke (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.612.11) than ICH (OR 1.19 95% CI 1.001.41). The OR and PAR of stroke among current smokers varied significantly between regions and income levels with high income countries (HIC) having the highest odds (OR 3.02 95% CI 2.244.10) and PAR (18.6%, 15.122.8%). Among etiological subtypes of ischemic stroke, the strongest association of current smoking was seen for large vessel stroke (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.632.87) and undetermined cause (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.552.50). Both filtered (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.501.99) and non-filtered (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.793.77) cigarettes were associated with stroke risk. ETS exposure increased the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner, exposure for more than 10 h per week increased risk for all stroke (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.692.27), ischemic stroke (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.592.24) and ICH (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.602.50). INTERPRETATION There are significant variations in the magnitude of risk and PAR of stroke according to the types of tobacco used, active and ETS exposure, and countries with different income levels. Specific strategies to discourage tobacco use by any form and to build a smoke free environment should be implemented to ease the global burden of stroke. FUNDING The Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Västra Götaland, and through unrestricted grants from several pharmaceutical companies with major contributions from Astra Zeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MERCK, Sharp and Dohme, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, UK Chest, and UK Heart and Stroke.
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OBJECTIVES: The objective was to investigate the benefits of the 'weekend warrior' physical activity pattern in Latin America, where many people take part in high levels of non-exercise physical activity. METHODS: Participants in the Mexico City Prospective Study were surveyed from 1998 to 2004 and resurveyed from 2015 to 2019. Those who exercised up to once or twice per week were termed weekend warriors. Those who exercised more often were termed regularly active. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: The main analysis included 26 006 deaths in 154 882 adults (67% female) aged 52±13 years followed for 18±4 years (mean±SD). Compared with those who reported no exercise, the HR (95% CI) was 0.88 (0.83 to 0.93) in the weekend warriors and 0.88 (0.84 to 0.91) in the regularly active. Similar results were observed for cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality, but associations were weaker. Stratified analyses showed that substantial reductions in all-cause mortality risk only occurred when the duration of exercise sessions was at least 30-60 min. The repeated-measures analysis included 843 deaths in 10 023 adults followed for 20±2 years. Compared with being inactive or becoming inactive, the HR was 0.86 (95% CI 0.65 to 1.12) when being a weekend warrior or becoming a weekend warrior and 0.85 (95% CI 0.70 to 1.03) when being regularly active or becoming regularly active. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first prospective study to investigate the benefits of the weekend warrior physical activity pattern in Latin America. The results suggest that even busy adults could benefit from taking part in one or two sessions of exercise per week.
Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases , Neoplasms , Adult , Humans , Female , Male , Cardiovascular Diseases/prevention & control , Prospective Studies , Exercise , Mexico/epidemiology , Surveys and QuestionnairesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The contribution of atrial fibrillation (AF) to the etiology and burden of stroke may vary by country income level. AIMS: We examined differences in the prevalence of AF and described variations in the magnitude of the association between AF and ischemic stroke by country income level. METHODS: In the INTERSTROKE case-control study, participants with acute first ischemic stroke were recruited across 32 countries. We included 10,363 ischemic stroke cases and 10,333 community or hospital controls who were matched for age, sex, and center. Participants were grouped into high-income (HIC), upper-middle-income (subdivided into two groups-UMIC-1 and UMIC-2), and lower-middle-income (LMIC) countries, based on gross national income. We evaluated the risk factors for AF overall and by country income level, and evaluated the association of AF with ischemic stroke. RESULTS: AF was documented in 11.9% (n = 1235) of cases and 3.2% (n = 328) of controls. Compared to HIC, the prevalence of AF was significantly lower in UMIC-2 (aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.29-0.41) and LMIC (aOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.41-0.60) on multivariable analysis. Hypertension, female sex, valvular heart disease, and alcohol intake were stronger risk factors for AF in lower-income countries, and obesity a stronger risk factor in higher-income countries. The magnitude of association between AF and ischemic stroke was significantly higher in lower-income countries compared to higher-income countries. The population attributable fraction for AF and stroke varied by region and was 15.7% (95% CI 13.7-17.8) in HIC, 14.6% (95% CI 12.3-17.1) in UMIC-1, 5.7% (95% CI 4.9-6.7) in UMIC-2, and 6.3% (95% CI 5.3-7.3) in LMIC. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for AF vary by country income level. AF contributes to stroke burden to a greater extent in higher-income countries than in lower-income countries, due to a higher prevalence and despite a lower magnitude of odds ratio.
Subject(s)
Atrial Fibrillation , Income , Ischemic Stroke , Humans , Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology , Atrial Fibrillation/complications , Case-Control Studies , Female , Male , Ischemic Stroke/epidemiology , Prevalence , Aged , Income/statistics & numerical data , Risk Factors , Middle Aged , Aged, 80 and overABSTRACT
There are limited data on individual risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection (including unrecognized infection). In this seroepidemiologic substudy of an ongoing prospective cohort study of community-dwelling adults, participants were thoroughly characterized pre-pandemic. The SARS-CoV-2 infection was ascertained by serology. Among 8,719 participants from 11 high-, middle-, and low-income countries, 3,009 (35%) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2. Characteristics independently associated with seropositivity were younger age (odds ratio, OR; 95% confidence interval, CI, per five-year increase: 0.95; 0.91-0.98) and body mass index >25 kg/m2 (OR, 95% CI: 1.16, 1.01-1.34). Smoking (as compared with never smoking, OR, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.70-0.97) and COVID-19 vaccination (OR, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.60-0.82) were associated with a reduced risk of seropositivity. Among seropositive participants, 83% were unaware of having been infected with SARS-CoV-2. Seropositivity and a lack of awareness of infection were more common in lower-income countries. The COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (including recognized and unrecognized infections). Overweight or obesity is an independent risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Infection and lack of infection awareness are more common in lower-income countries.IMPORTANCEIn this large, international study, evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was obtained by testing blood specimens from 8,719 community-dwelling adults from 11 countries. The key findings are that (i) the large majority (83%) of community-dwelling adults from several high-, middle-, and low-income countries with blood test evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection were unaware of this infection-especially in lower-income countries; and (ii) overweight/obesity predisposes to SARS-CoV-2 infection, while COVID-19 vaccination is associated with a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These observations are not attributable to other individual characteristics, highlighting the importance of the COVID-19 vaccination to prevent not only severe infection but possibly any infection. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms by which overweight/obesity might increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adult , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Prospective Studies , Overweight , COVID-19 Vaccines , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Risk Factors , ObesityABSTRACT
Background: Controversies exist on whether the presence of cardiovascular risk factors and their association with major cardiovascular events (MACE) is different between men and women. Most of the evidence comes from high-income countries, hindering extrapolation of sociocultural and demographic factors of other regions. Objective: To evaluate sex differences in the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and the incidence of MACE and diabetes in Colombian adults. Methods: We performed a survival analysis from women and men aged 35-70 belonging to the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology-Colombia prospective study. Incidence rates for MACE composite (myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, death) and each outcome and diabetes were calculated. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were performed. The association between demographic, behavioral, and metabolic variables with MACE and diabetes were evaluated with Cox proportional hazards models. Results: 7,552 participants (50±9.7 years) were included; 64% were women. Women had higher hypertension prevalence, body mass index, levels of total cholesterol, LDL-c, and HDL-c but lower triglycerides levels. Women were more sedentary but fewer smokers or active alcohol consumers and had higher educational levels. After 12-year mean follow-up (SD 2.3), the incidence rate of MACE composite was higher in men [4.2 (3.6-4.9) vs. 3.2 (2.8-3.7) cases per 1000 person-years]. Diabetes had the greatest association with MACE (HR = 2.63 95%CI:1.85;3.76), followed by hypertension (HR = 1.75 95%CI:1.30;2.35), low relative grip strength (HR = 1.53 95%CI:1.15;2.02), smoking (HR = 1.47 95%CI: 1.11;1.93), low physical activity (HR = 1.42 95%CI: 1.03;1.96). When evaluating risk factors by sex, only an increased waist-to-hip ratio was more strongly associated with MACE in men (p-interaction <0.05). Conclusions: The composite MACE outcome was higher in men despite having a lower overall burden of risk factors. The risk factors contribution was similar, leading us to reconsider the need to carrying out differentiated cardiovascular risk prevention and management campaigns, at least in our region.
Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases , Diabetes Mellitus , Hypertension , Adult , Humans , Female , Male , Prospective Studies , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Colombia/epidemiology , Prevalence , Sex Characteristics , Risk Factors , Heart Disease Risk Factors , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Background: Abdominal obesity (AO) indirectly represents visceral adiposity and can be assessed by waist circumference (WC) measurement. In Latin America, cut-off points for the diagnosis of AO are based on Asian population data. We aim to establish the WC cut-off points to predict major cardiovascular events (MACE) and incident diabetes. Methods: We analyzed data from the cohort PURE study in Colombia. WC cut-off points were defined according to the maximum Youden index. Multivariate logistic regression was used to obtain associations between WC and MACE, diabetes, and cumulative incidence of outcomes visualized using Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: After a mean follow-up of 12 years, 6,580 individuals with a mean age of 50.7 ± 9.7 years were included; 64.2% were women, and 53.5% were from rural areas. The mean WC was 85.2 ± 11.6â cm and 88.3 ± 11.1â cm in women and men, respectively. There were 635 cases of the MACE composite plus incident diabetes (5.25 events per 1,000 person-years). Using a cut-off value of 88.85â cm in men (sensitivity = 0.565) and 85.65â cm in women (sensitivity = 0.558) resulted in the highest value for the prediction of the main outcome. These values were associated with a 1.76 and 1.41-fold increased risk of presenting the composite outcome in men and women, respectively. Conclusions: We defined WC cut-off points of 89â cm in men and 86â cm in women to identify the elevated risk of MACE and incident diabetes. Therefore, we suggest using these values in cardiovascular risk assessment in Latin America.