Unmet healthcare needs among the population aged 50+ and their association with health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented levels of subjective unmet healthcare needs (SUN). This study investigates the association between SUN in 2020 and three health outcomes in 2021-mortality, cancer, and self-assessed health (SAH), among adults aged 50 years and older, using data from the regular administration of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and from the two special waves administered in 2020 and 2021 regarding COVID-19. Three types of SUN were surveyed: care foregone due to fear of contracting COVID-19, pre-scheduled care postponed, and inability to get medical appointments or treatments demanded. We resort on the relative risk and the logistic specification to investigate the association between SUN and health outcomes. To avoid simultaneity, 1-year lagged SUN variables are used. We found a negative association between SUN and mortality. This result differs from the (scarce) previous evidence, suggesting that health systems prioritised life-threatening conditions, in the pandemic context. In line with previous studies, we obtained a positive association between SUN and worse health, in the case of cancer, though it is statistically significant only for the global measure of SUN (any reason). The higher chances of reporting cancer among those exposed to SUN might mean delayed cancer diagnosis, confirming that healthcare foregone was truly needed for a timely diagnosis. The association between SUN and poor or fair SAH is positive but not statistically significant, for the period analysed.

Development of a warning score for early detection of colorectal anastomotic leakage: Hype or hope?

BACKGROUND: Colorectal anastomotic leakage (CAL), a severe postoperative complication, is associated with high morbidity, hospital readmission, and overall healthcare costs. Early detection of CAL remains a challenge in clinical practice. However, some decision models have been developed to increase the diagnostic accuracy of this event. AIM: To develop a score based on easily accessible variables to detect CAL early. METHODS: Based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method, a predictive classification system was developed [Early ColoRectAL Leakage (E-CRALL) score] from a prospective observational, single center cohort, carried out in a colorectal division from a non-academic hospital. The score performance and CAL threshold from postoperative day (POD) 3 to POD5 were estimated. Based on a precise analytical decision model, the standard clinical practice was compared with the E-CRALL adoption on POD3, POD4, or POD5. A cost-minimization analysis was conducted, on the assumption that all alternatives delivered similar health-related effects. RESULTS: In this study, 396 patients who underwent colorectal resection surgery with anastomosis, and 6.3% (n = 25) developed CAL. Most of the patients who developed CAL (n = 23; 92%) were diagnosed during the first hospital admission, with a median time of diagnosis of 9.0 ± 6.8 d. From POD3 to POD5, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the E-CRALL score was 0.82, 0.84, and 0.95, respectively. On POD5, if a threshold of 8.29 was chosen, 87.4% of anastomotic failures were identified with E-CRALL adoption. Additionally, score usage could anticipate CAL diagnosis in an average of 5.2 d and 4.1 d, if used on POD3 and POD5, respectively. Regardless of score adoption, episode comprehensive costs were markedly greater (up to four times) in patients who developed CAL in comparison with patients who did not develop CAL. Nonetheless, the use of the E-CRALL warning score was associated with cost savings of €421442.20, with most (92.9%) of the savings from patients who did not develop CAL. CONCLUSION: The E-CRALL score is an accessible tool to predict CAL at an early timepoint. Additionally, E-CRALL can reduce overall healthcare costs, mainly in the reduction of hospital costs, independent of whether a patient developed CAL.

Usefulness of serum C-reactive protein and calprotectin for the early detection of colorectal anastomotic leakage: A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal anastomotic leakage (CAL) is one of the most dreaded complications after colorectal surgery, with an incidence that can be as high as 27%. This event is associated with increased morbidity and mortality; therefore, its early diagnosis is crucial to reduce clinical consequences and costs. Some biomarkers have been suggested as laboratory tools for the diagnosis of CAL. AIM: To assess the usefulness of plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) and calprotectin (CLP) as early predictors of CAL. METHODS: A prospective monocentric observational study was conducted including patients who underwent colorectal resection with anastomosis, from March 2017 to August 2019. Patients were divided into three groups: G1 - no complications; G2 - complications not related to CAL; and G3 - CAL. Five biomarkers were measured and analyzed in the first 5 postoperative days (PODs), namely white blood cell (WBC) count, eosinophil cell count (ECC), CRP, CLP, and procalcitonin (PCT). Clinical criteria, such as abdominal pain and clinical condition, were also assessed. The correlation between biomarkers and CAL was evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to compare the accuracy of these biomarkers as predictors of CAL, and the area under the ROC curve (AUROC), specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (NPV) during this period were estimated. RESULTS: In total, 25 of 396 patients developed CAL (6.3%), and the mean time for this diagnosis was 9.0 ± 6.8 d. Some operative characteristics, such as surgical approach, blood loss, intraoperative complications, and duration of the procedure, were notably related to the development of CAL. The length of hospital stay was markedly higher in the group that developed CAL compared with the group with complications other than CAL and the group with no complications (median of 21 d vs 13 d and 7 d respectively; P < 0.001). For abdominal pain, the best predictive performance was on POD4 and POD5, with the largest AUROC of 0.84 on POD4. Worsening of the clinical condition was associated with the diagnosis of CAL, presenting a higher predictive effect on POD5, with an AUROC of 0.9. WBC and ECC showed better predictive effects on POD5 (AUROC = 0.62 and 0.7, respectively). Those markers also presented a high NPV (94%-98%). PCT had the best predictive effect on POD5 (AUROC = 0.61), although it presented low accuracy. However, this biomarker revealed a high NPV on POD3, POD4, and POD5 (96%, 95%, and 96%, respectively). The mean CRP value on POD5 was significantly higher in the group that developed CAL compared with the group without complications (195.5 ± 139.9 mg/L vs 59.5 ± 43.4 mg/L; P < 0.00001). On POD5, CRP had a NPV of 98%. The mean CLP value on POD3 was significantly higher in G3 compared with G1 (5.26 ± 3.58 µg/mL vs 11.52 ± 6.81 µg/mL; P < 0.00005). On POD3, the combination of CLP and CRP values showed a high diagnostic accuracy (AUROC = 0.82), providing a 5.2 d reduction in the time to CAL diagnosis. CONCLUSION: CRP and CLP are moderate predictors of CAL. However, the combination of these biomarkers presents an increased diagnostic accuracy, potentially decreasing the time to CAL diagnosis.

[The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Unmet Healthcare Needs in People Aged Over 50 in Portugal]. / COVID-19 e Necessidades em Saúde Não Satisfeitas para Indivíduos Com Mais de 50 anos em Portugal.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic led to the cancellation of healthcare appointments and to lower demand, which generated unmet healthcare needs. The aim of this study was to evaluate their prevalence and distribution in Portugal. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data came from the "Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe". Between June and August 2020, 1118 Portuguese individuals aged 50 or over were inquired about unmet healthcare needs due to: i) fear of getting infected; ii) cancellation by the doctor/healthcare services; iii) unsuccessful consultation request. The analysis of the prevalence of unmet needs was complemented by the calculation of the concentration indices as a function of the variables: income, education and health status. RESULTS: About 60% of respondents reported at least one unmet need, which was almost twice the European average. Motive ii) cancellation by the doctor/healthcare services was the most frequent. The prevalence of unmet needs differed depending on income level and health status. The indices evidence the concentration of unmet needs in individuals with the worst health status, although for the reason fear of infection the concentration occurred in those with higher levels of income and education. CONCLUSION: Our study showed a high prevalence of unmet needs and their concentration in individuals with worse health status. Given the association between unmet needs and the subsequent deterioration of health, these results should raise concerns about the near future.

Introdução: A pandemia por COVID-19 conduziu ao cancelamento de cuidados de saúde e à diminuição da sua procura resultando em necessidades de cuidados de saúde não satisfeitas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a sua prevalência e distribuição, em Portugal. Material e Métodos: Os dados provêm do Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Foram inquiridos 1118 portugueses com 50 ou mais anos, entre junho e agosto de 2020, sobre necessidades de cuidados de saúde não satisfeitas por: i) receio de ser infetado; ii) cancelamento por parte dos serviços de saúde; iii) solicitação de consulta não atendida. A análise de prevalência de necessidades não satisfeitas foi complementada pelo cálculo de índices de concentração em função das variáveis: rendimento, educação e estado de saúde. Resultados: Cerca de 60% dos inquiridos reportaram pelo menos uma necessidade não satisfeita, quase o dobro da média europeia, sendo o motivo ii) cancelamento por parte dos serviços de saúde o mais frequente. A prevalência de necessidades não satisfeitas diferiu consoante o nível de rendimento e o estado de saúde. Os índices comprovaram a sua concentração nos indivíduos com pior estado de saúde, embora para o motivo Receio a concentração ocorresse nos que têm maior rendimento e nível de educação. Conclusão: O nosso estudo revelou uma elevada prevalência de necessidades de cuidados de saúde não satisfeitas e a sua concentração em indivíduos com pior estado de saúde. Dada a associação entre necessidades não satisfeitas e a subsequente deterioração da saúde, estes resultados constituem um alerta para o futuro próximo.

[Access to healthcare in Portugal in the wake of the crisis. Not everything is money?] / Acesso aos cuidados de saúde em Portugal no rescaldo da crise. Nem tudo é dinheiro?

Unmet healthcare needs have been used to assess access to healthcare. In scenarios of recession and financial constraints on public policies, it is important to identify which factors besides income can be used to mitigate barriers to access. This was the focus of our study on Portugal's case in the wake of the crisis. We used 17,698 observations from the 5th National Health Survey (2014). We analyzed self-reported unmet needs for medical appointments and treatments, dental healthcare, and prescribed medications. We used a bivariate selection model, considering the fact that unmet needs could only be observed in the subsample of individuals that felt the need for healthcare. The risk of unmet needs for healthcare decreased in individuals with higher income and schooling levels and in the elderly and men. Exclusive coverage by the National Health Service increased the risk of unmet dental healthcare needs. The absence of a circle of close friends to whom one can ask for help and lack of trust in others increased the likelihood of unmet healthcare needs. Better health decreased the risk of unmet needs. While income is an important predictor of unmet needs, we found the impact of other factors such as gender, age, and education. Participation in informal groups reduced the likelihood of unmet needs. Individuals with more healthcare needs end up suffering additional risk.

As necessidades de cuidados de saúde não satisfeitas têm sido usadas para avaliar o acesso a cuidados de saúde. Em cenários de recessão e restrições financeiras impostas às políticas públicas, é importante identificar que fatores, para além do rendimento, podem ser usados para mitigar as barreiras no acesso. Este é o objetivo deste artigo, para o caso português, durante o rescaldo da crise. Usaram-se 17.698 observações do 5º Inquérito Nacional de Saúde (2014). Analisaram-se as necessidades não satisfeitas (autorreportadas) para as consultas e tratamentos médicos, cuidados de saúde dentários e medicamentos prescritos. Recorreu-se ao modelo de seleção bivariado, acomodando o fato de as necessidades não satisfeitas apenas poderem ser observadas na subamostra de indivíduos que sentiram necessidade de cuidados de saúde. O risco de necessidades de cuidados de saúde não satisfeitas diminui para rendimentos e níveis de educação mais altos bem como no grupo dos idosos e homens. Beneficiar apenas do Serviço Nacional de Saúde aumenta o risco de necessidades não satisfeitas na saúde oral. A ausência de um círculo de pessoas próximas a quem pedir ajuda e a falta de confiança nos outros tornam mais prováveis as necessidades de cuidados de saúde não satisfeitas. Mais saúde diminui o risco de necessidades de cuidados não satisfeitas. Sendo o rendimento um importante preditor das necessidades não satisfeitas, encontrou-se impacto de outros fatores como sexo, idade e educação. Participar em grupos informais reduz a probabilidade de necessidades não satisfeitas. Aqueles com mais necessidades de cuidados de saúde acabam por sofrer um risco acrescido por essa via.

Las necesidades de cuidados de salud sin satisfacer se han usado para evaluar el acceso a los cuidados de salud. En escenarios de recesión y restricciones financieras, impuestas a las políticas públicas, es importante identificar qué factores, más allá del rendimiento, pueden ser usados para mitigar las barreras en el acceso. Este es nuestro objetivo para el caso portugués tras la crisis. Se realizaron 17.698 observaciones de la 5ª Encuesta Nacional de Salud (2014). Analizamos las necesidades no satisfechas (auto-informadas) en consultas y tratamientos médicos, cuidados dentales de salud y medicamentos prescritos. Recurrimos al modelo de selección bivariado, ajustando el hecho de que las necesidades no satisfechas solamente podrían ser observadas en la submuestra de individuos que sintieron la necesidad de cuidados de salud. El riesgo de necesidades de cuidados de salud no satisfechas disminuye en el caso de las rentas y niveles de educación más altos, así como en el grupo de los ancianos y hombres. Beneficiar solamente el Servicio Nacional de Salud aumenta el riesgo de necesidades no satisfechas en la salud oral. La ausencia de un círculo de personas cercanas a quién pedir ayuda y la falta de confianza en los otros hacen más probables las necesidades de cuidados de salud no satisfechos. Más salud disminuye el riesgo de necesidades de cuidados no satisfechos. Siendo el rendimiento un importante predictor de las necesidades no satisfechas, encontramos impacto de otros factores como sexo, edad y educación. Participar en grupos informales reduce la probabilidad de necesidades no satisfechas. Aquellos con más necesidades de cuidados de salud acaban por sufrir un riesgo más grande por esta vía.

Acesso aos cuidados de saúde em Portugal no rescaldo da crise. Nem tudo é dinheiro? / Access to healthcare in Portugal in the wake of the crisis. Not everything is money? / Acceso a los cuidados de salud en Portugal después de la crisis. ¿No todo es dinero?

As necessidades de cuidados de saúde não satisfeitas têm sido usadas para avaliar o acesso a cuidados de saúde. Em cenários de recessão e restrições financeiras impostas às políticas públicas, é importante identificar que fatores, para além do rendimento, podem ser usados para mitigar as barreiras no acesso. Este é o objetivo deste artigo, para o caso português, durante o rescaldo da crise. Usaram-se 17.698 observações do 5º Inquérito Nacional de Saúde (2014). Analisaram-se as necessidades não satisfeitas (autorreportadas) para as consultas e tratamentos médicos, cuidados de saúde dentários e medicamentos prescritos. Recorreu-se ao modelo de seleção bivariado, acomodando o fato de as necessidades não satisfeitas apenas poderem ser observadas na subamostra de indivíduos que sentiram necessidade de cuidados de saúde. O risco de necessidades de cuidados de saúde não satisfeitas diminui para rendimentos e níveis de educação mais altos bem como no grupo dos idosos e homens. Beneficiar apenas do Serviço Nacional de Saúde aumenta o risco de necessidades não satisfeitas na saúde oral. A ausência de um círculo de pessoas próximas a quem pedir ajuda e a falta de confiança nos outros tornam mais prováveis as necessidades de cuidados de saúde não satisfeitas. Mais saúde diminui o risco de necessidades de cuidados não satisfeitas. Sendo o rendimento um importante preditor das necessidades não satisfeitas, encontrou-se impacto de outros fatores como sexo, idade e educação. Participar em grupos informais reduz a probabilidade de necessidades não satisfeitas. Aqueles com mais necessidades de cuidados de saúde acabam por sofrer um risco acrescido por essa via.

Unmet healthcare needs have been used to assess access to healthcare. In scenarios of recession and financial constraints on public policies, it is important to identify which factors besides income can be used to mitigate barriers to access. This was the focus of our study on Portugal's case in the wake of the crisis. We used 17,698 observations from the 5th National Health Survey (2014). We analyzed self-reported unmet needs for medical appointments and treatments, dental healthcare, and prescribed medications. We used a bivariate selection model, considering the fact that unmet needs could only be observed in the subsample of individuals that felt the need for healthcare. The risk of unmet needs for healthcare decreased in individuals with higher income and schooling levels and in the elderly and men. Exclusive coverage by the National Health Service increased the risk of unmet dental healthcare needs. The absence of a circle of close friends to whom one can ask for help and lack of trust in others increased the likelihood of unmet healthcare needs. Better health decreased the risk of unmet needs. While income is an important predictor of unmet needs, we found the impact of other factors such as gender, age, and education. Participation in informal groups reduced the likelihood of unmet needs. Individuals with more healthcare needs end up suffering additional risk.

Las necesidades de cuidados de salud sin satisfacer se han usado para evaluar el acceso a los cuidados de salud. En escenarios de recesión y restricciones financieras, impuestas a las políticas públicas, es importante identificar qué factores, más allá del rendimiento, pueden ser usados para mitigar las barreras en el acceso. Este es nuestro objetivo para el caso portugués tras la crisis. Se realizaron 17.698 observaciones de la 5ª Encuesta Nacional de Salud (2014). Analizamos las necesidades no satisfechas (auto-informadas) en consultas y tratamientos médicos, cuidados dentales de salud y medicamentos prescritos. Recurrimos al modelo de selección bivariado, ajustando el hecho de que las necesidades no satisfechas solamente podrían ser observadas en la submuestra de individuos que sintieron la necesidad de cuidados de salud. El riesgo de necesidades de cuidados de salud no satisfechas disminuye en el caso de las rentas y niveles de educación más altos, así como en el grupo de los ancianos y hombres. Beneficiar solamente el Servicio Nacional de Salud aumenta el riesgo de necesidades no satisfechas en la salud oral. La ausencia de un círculo de personas cercanas a quién pedir ayuda y la falta de confianza en los otros hacen más probables las necesidades de cuidados de salud no satisfechos. Más salud disminuye el riesgo de necesidades de cuidados no satisfechos. Siendo el rendimiento un importante predictor de las necesidades no satisfechas, encontramos impacto de otros factores como sexo, edad y educación. Participar en grupos informales reduce la probabilidad de necesidades no satisfechas. Aquellos con más necesidades de cuidados de salud acaban por sufrir un riesgo más grande por esta vía.

Unmet needs across Europe: Disclosing knowledge beyond the ordinary measure.

Unmet healthcare needs (or foregone healthcare) is a widely used intermediate indicator to evaluate healthcare systems attainment since it relates to health outcomes, financial risk protection, improved efficiency and responsiveness to the individuals' legitimate expectations. This paper discusses the ordinary measure of this indicator used so far, prevalence of unmet needs in the whole population, based on the level of healthcare needs among the population. The prevalence of needs and the prevalence of unmet needs among those in need are key aspects that have not yet been fully explored when it comes to foregone healthcare. We break down the ordinary measure into prevalence of needs and prevalence of unmet needs among those in need based on data taken from the European Social Survey 2014. Afterwards, we analyse these different measures in a cross-country perspective. We also discuss the link between them and the implicit relative assessment of healthcare systems considering the whole population and the sub-group of the population aged 65 or more. Comparisons across countries show different attainment levels unveiling varying challenges across European countries, depending on the combination of levels of need and levels of unmet needs for those in need.

No unmet needs without needs! Assessing the role of social capital using data from European social survey 2014.

This paper examines the determinants of unmet healthcare needs in Europe. Special emphasis is put on the impact of social capital. Data come from the European Social Survey, 2014. Our study includes 32,868 respondents in 20 countries. Because unmet needs are observed only in those individuals who are exposed to, and recognise, the need of medical care, sample selection can be an issue. To address it, we analyse the data using the bivariate sample selection model. When there is no need, there is no assessment of access to healthcare. Accordingly, in this situation, our model assumes that unmet need is unobserved. The magnitude and statistical significance of the error correlation support our modelling strategy. A high proportion (18.4%) of individuals in need in Europe reported unmet needs. Informal connections seem to mitigate barriers to access as well as trust in other people and institutions, particularly in health services. Financial strain still is a strong predictor of unmet needs. Other vulnerable groups include informal carers, minorities and individuals feeling discriminated. Unmet needs might also arise due to persistent needs of healthcare as it seems to be the case of individuals with lower health status and chronic conditions. A result that merits further research concerns the positive impact of civic engagement on unmet needs.

Do drinking problems in the past affect current consumption?

Harmful use of alcohol ranks among the top five risk factors for disease, disability and death worldwide. However, not all individuals who consume alcohol throughout life are addicted and our premise is that addiction implies a chain of consumption that produces harmful effects. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether self-assessed past drinking problems - our measure of harmful alcohol consumption - affect the current alcohol consumption patterns. We expected that drinking problems in the past could have a positive effect on current alcohol consumption. Using Portuguese data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we applied an ordered probit model, given the ordered nature of the dependent variable. Our dependent variable measures the current consumption using categories listed in ascending order of alcohol intake frequency (from less than once a month to daily consumption). Our results suggest that harmful alcohol consumption in the past is an important determinant of current alcohol consumption. Self-assessed past drinking problems had a positive effect on the first five lower categories of current alcohol consumption frequency - less than once a month to up to six days a week. Therefore, to reduce non-communicable avoidable diseases related to the use of alcohol, policies should consider the individuals' decisions regarding alcohol consumption during their lifetime, and specific policies should focus on individuals with past drinking problems.

Do drinking problems in the past affect current consumption? / Problemas com bebida no passado coíbem consumo atual? / ¿Los problemas con la bebida en el pasado evitan su consumo actual?

Abstract: Harmful use of alcohol ranks among the top five risk factors for disease, disability and death worldwide. However, not all individuals who consume alcohol throughout life are addicted and our premise is that addiction implies a chain of consumption that produces harmful effects. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether self-assessed past drinking problems - our measure of harmful alcohol consumption - affect the current alcohol consumption patterns. We expected that drinking problems in the past could have a positive effect on current alcohol consumption. Using Portuguese data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we applied an ordered probit model, given the ordered nature of the dependent variable. Our dependent variable measures the current consumption using categories listed in ascending order of alcohol intake frequency (from less than once a month to daily consumption). Our results suggest that harmful alcohol consumption in the past is an important determinant of current alcohol consumption. Self-assessed past drinking problems had a positive effect on the first five lower categories of current alcohol consumption frequency - less than once a month to up to six days a week. Therefore, to reduce non-communicable avoidable diseases related to the use of alcohol, policies should consider the individuals' decisions regarding alcohol consumption during their lifetime, and specific policies should focus on individuals with past drinking problems.

Resumo: O uso prejudicial de álcool figura entre os cinco principais fatores de risco para doença, deficiência e óbito em todo o mundo. Contudo, nem todos os indivíduos que consomem álcool durante suas vidas são drogaditos e nossa premissa é que a drogadição pressupõe um fluxo de consumo que produz efeitos danosos. O objetivo deste artigo foi avaliar se problemas autoavaliados com bebida no passado - nossa medida de consumo danoso de álcool - afetam padrões atuais de consumo de álcool. Esperávamos que problemas no passado poderiam ter um efeito positivo sobre o consumo atual de álcool. Usando dados portugueses do Inquérito de Saúde, Envelhecimento e Aposentadoria na Europa (SHARE, em inglês), aplicamos um modelo ordered probit, dada a natureza ordinal da variável dependente. Nossa variável dependente mede o consumo atual usando categorias listadas em ordem ascendente de frequência de ingestão de álcool (de menos de uma vez por mês até consumo diário). Nossos resultados sugerem que o consumo danoso de álcool no passado é um determinante importante do consumo atual de álcool. Problemas autoavaliados com bebida no passado tiveram um efeito positivo nas primeiras cinco categorias mais baixas de frequência atual de consumo de álcool - menos de uma vez por mês até seis dias por semana. Portanto, para reduzir doenças não-transmissíveis preveníveis relacionadas ao consumo de álcool, as políticas públicas devem levar em consideração as decisões de indivíduos relacionadas ao seu consumo de álcool durante suas vidas, e políticas específicas devem ser dirigidas a indivíduos com problemas passados com bebida.

Resumen: El abuso de alcohol se sitúa entre los cinco factores con mayor riesgo alrededor del mundo para enfermedad, incapacidad y muerte. No obstante, no todas las personas que consumen alcohol a lo largo de su vida son adictas y nuestra premisa es que la adicción implica un consumo continuado que produce efectos dañinos. El objetivo de este trabajo fue evaluar si los problemas pasados con el alcohol autoevaluados -nuestra medida de consumo dañino- afecta a los estándares actuales de consumo de alcohol. Esperábamos que los problemas con el alcohol en el pasado pudieran tener un efecto positivo en el consumo actual. Utilizando los datos portugueses de la Encuesta para la Salud, Envejecimiento y Jubilación en Europa (SHARE), aplicamos un modelo ordered probit, proporcionado por la propia naturaleza de la variable dependiente. Nuestra variable dependiente mide el consumo actual, usando categorías listadas en orden ascendiente de frecuencia de consumo de alcohol (desde menos de una vez al mes al consumo diario). Nuestros resultados sugieren que un consumo dañino de alcohol en el pasado es un importante determinante del consumo de alcohol en la actualidad. Los problemas autoevaluados en el pasado con la bebida tuvieron un efecto positivo en las primeras cinco categorías más bajas de la frecuencia actual de consumo de alcohol -menos de una vez al mes hasta seis días a la semana. Por consiguiente, para reducir las enfermedades evitables no comunicables, relacionadas con el consumo de alcohol, se deberían considerar políticas que tuvieran en mente las decisiones individuales, en relación con el consumo de alcohol a lo largo de la vida, así como centrar las políticas específicas en personas con problemas con la bebida en el pasado.

Multidisciplinary Portuguese recommendations on DXA request and indication to treat in the prevention of fragility fractures.

OBJECTIVE: To establish Portuguese recommendations regarding the indication to perform DXA and to initiate medication aimed at the prevention of fragility fractures. METHODS: A multidisciplinary panel, representing the full spectrum of medical specialties and patient associations devoted to osteoporosis, as well as national experts in this field and in health economics, was gathered to developed recommendations based on available evidence and expert consensus. Recently obtained data on the Portuguese epidemiologic, economic and quality-of-life aspects of fragility fractures were used to support decisions. RESULTS: 10 recommendations were developed covering the issues of whom to investigate with DXA and whom to treat with antifracture medications. Thresholds for assessment and intervention are based on the cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions at different thresholds of ten-year probability of osteoporotic fracture, calculated with the Portuguese version of FRAX® (FRAX®Port), and taking into account Portuguese epidemiologic and economic data. Limitations of FRAX® are highlighted and guidance for appropriate adjustment is provided, when possible. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effectiveness thresholds for DXA examination and drug intervention aiming at fragility fracture prevention are now provided for the Portuguese population. These are practical, based on national epidemiological and economic data, evidence-based and supported by a wide scope multidisciplinary panel of experts and scientific societies. Implementation of these recommendations holds great promise in assuring the most effective use of health resources in the prevention of osteoporotic fractures in Portugal.

Cost-Effectiveness of Intervention Thresholds for the Treatment of Osteoporosis Based on FRAX(®) in Portugal.

Cost-effective intervention thresholds (ITs) based on FRAX(®) were determined for Portugal. Assuming a willingness to pay (WTP) of €32,000 per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), treatment with generic alendronate is cost effective for men and women aged 50 years or more, with 10-year probabilities for major osteoporotic fractures and hip above 8.8 and 2.5 %, respectively. The aim of the present study was to identify the 10-year probabilities of a major and hip osteoporotic fracture using FRAX(®) validated for Portugal, above which pharmacologic interventions become cost effective in the Portuguese context. A previously developed and validated state transition Markov cohort model was populated with epidemiologic, economic and quality-of-life fracture data from Portugal. Cost-effectiveness of FRAX(®)-based ITs was calculated for generic alendronate and proprietary zoledronic acid, denosumab and teriparatide were compared to "no intervention", assuming a WTP of €32,000 (two times national Gross Domestic Product per capita) per QALYs. In the Portuguese epidemiological and economic context, treatment with generic alendronate was cost effective for men and women aged 50 years or more, with 10-year probabilities at or above 8.8 % for major osteoporotic fractures and 2.5 % for hip fractures. Cost-effective threshold 10-year probabilities for major osteoporotic and hip fractures were higher for zoledronic acid (20.4 and 10.1 %), denosumab (34.9 and 10.1 %) and teriparatide (77.8 and 62.6 %), respectively. A tool is provided to perform the calculation of cost-effective ITs for different medications, according to age group and diverse levels of WTP. Cost-effective ITs, for different medications, age groups and WTP, based on 10-year probabilities of major and hip fracture probabilities calculated with FRAX are provided.

A FRAX model for the estimation of osteoporotic fracture probability in Portugal.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study was to develop a Portuguese version of the World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®). METHODS: All cases of hip fracture occurred at or after 40 years of age were extracted from the Portuguese National Hospital Discharge Register from 2006 to 2010. Age and sex-ranked population estimates and mortality rates were obtained from National Statistics. Age- and gender stratified incidences were computed and the average of the five years under consideration was taken. Rates for other major fractures were imputed from the epidemiology of Sweden, as undertaken for most national FRAX® models. All methodological aspects and results were submitted to critical appraisal by a wide panel of national experts and representatives of the different stakeholders, including patients. RESULTS: Hip fracture incidence rates were higher in women than in men and increased with age. The lowest incidence was observed in 40-44 years group (14.1 and 4.0 per 100,000 inhabitants for men and women, respectively). The highest rate was observed among the 95-100 age-group (2,577.6 and 3,551.8/100,000 inhabitants, for men and women, respectively). The estimated ten-year probability for major osteoporotic fracture or hip fracture increased with decreasing T-score and with increasing age. CONCLUSIONS: Portugal has one of the lowest fracture incidences among European countries. The FRAX® tool has been successfully calibrated to the Portuguese population, and can now be used to estimate the ten-year risk of osteoporotic fractures in this country. All major stakeholders officially endorsed the Portuguese FRAX® model and co-authored this paper.

Utilization of public health centres in Portugal: effect of time costs and other determinants. Finite mixture models applied to truncated samples.

The impact of time costs on the utilization of medical care has been a subject of theoretical and empirical research since the early 1970s. The main goal of this paper is to show the effect of time costs on the number of visits to general practitioners (GP) in Portuguese public health centres. We measured the elasticity of primary health care utilization relative to the total time spent in the health centre and relative to travel time. We also provided evidence regarding the impact of an appointment delay on the utilization of public GP services. Our data resulted from the application of an endogenous sampling scheme, resulting in a truncated-at-zero data set. To model our dependent variable, number of visits, and accounting for the truncated nature of the data we used a finite mixture model specification. The data were obtained from the most recent implementation in Portugal of the 2003/2004 Europep Survey. The two-component negative binomial II finite mixture model led to the identification of two different latent classes of health centre users: a low-users class that comprises 88% of patients with an estimated utilization mean of 4.3 GP visits per year and a frequent-users class with an estimated utilization mean of 11.1 visits for the remaining 12% of the population. We failed to find any statistically significant elasticity of time cost utilization, when this variable is measured as the total time spent in the health centre. Regarding the effect of an appointment delay on health centre utilization we concluded that individuals respond to this variable by lowering the number of GP visits. This last finding may have policy implications, which will be discussed at the end of the paper.