Correction to "Exploring the urban arbovirus landscape in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: transmission dynamics and patterns of disease spread" The Lancet Regional Health - Americas 2024;35: 100786.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2024.100786.].

Insights into SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance among Prison Populations in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, in 2022.

This study examines the epidemiological and genomic characteristics, along with the transmission dynamics, of SARS-CoV-2 within prison units I and II in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Conducted between May and October 2022, it reveals how the virus spreads in the confined settings of prisons, emphasizing the roles of overcrowded cells, frequent transfers, and limited healthcare access. The research involved 1927 participants (83.93% of the total prison population) and utilized nasopharyngeal swabs and RT-qPCR testing for detection. Contact tracing monitored exposure within cells. Out of 2108 samples, 66 positive cases were identified (3.13%), mostly asymptomatic (77.27%), with the majority aged 21-29 and varying vaccination statuses. Next-generation sequencing generated 28 whole genome sequences, identifying the Omicron variant (subtypes BA.2 and BA.5) with 99% average coverage. Additionally, the study seeks to determine the relationship between immunization levels and the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 cases within this enclosed population. The findings underscore the necessity of comprehensive control strategies in prisons, including rigorous screening, isolation protocols, vaccination, epidemiological monitoring, and genomic surveillance to mitigate disease transmission and protect both the incarcerated population and the broader community.

Clonal Expansion of a Streptococcus pneumoniae Serotype 3 Capsule Variant Sequence Type 700 With Enhanced Vaccine Escape Potential After 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Introduction.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 3 remains a problem globally. Malawi introduced 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in 2011, but there has been no direct protection against serotype 3 carriage. We explored whether vaccine escape by serotype 3 is due to clonal expansion of a lineage with a competitive advantage. METHODS: The distribution of serotype 3 Global Pneumococcal Sequence Clusters (GPSCs) and sequence types (STs) globally was assessed using sequences from the Global Pneumococcal Sequencing Project. Whole-genome sequences of 135 serotype 3 carriage isolates from Blantyre, Malawi (2015-2019) were analyzed. Comparative analysis of the capsule locus, entire genomes, antimicrobial resistance, and phylogenetic reconstructions were undertaken. Opsonophagocytosis was evaluated using serum samples from vaccinated adults and children. RESULTS: Serotype 3 GPSC10-ST700 isolates were most prominent in Malawi. Compared with the prototypical serotype 3 capsular polysaccharide locus sequence, 6 genes are absent, with retention of capsule polysaccharide biosynthesis. This lineage is characterized by increased antimicrobial resistance and lower susceptibility to opsonophagocytic killing. CONCLUSIONS: A serotype 3 variant in Malawi has genotypic and phenotypic characteristics that could enhance vaccine escape and clonal expansion after post-PCV13 introduction. Genomic surveillance among high-burden populations is essential to improve the effectiveness of next-generation pneumococcal vaccines.

North-south pathways, emerging variants, and high climate suitability characterize the recent spread of dengue virus serotypes 2 and 3 in the Dominican Republic.

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever remains a significant public health challenge in tropical and subtropical regions, with its transmission dynamics being influenced by both environmental factors and human mobility. The Dominican Republic, a biodiversity hotspot in the Caribbean, has experienced recurrent dengue outbreaks, yet detailed understanding of the virus's transmission pathways and the impact of climatic factors remains limited. This study aims to elucidate the recent transmission dynamics of the dengue virus (DENV) in the Dominican Republic, utilizing a combination of genomic sequencing and epidemiological data analysis, alongside an examination of historical climate patterns. METHODS: We conducted a comprehensive study involving the genomic sequencing of DENV samples collected from patients across different regions of the Dominican Republic over a two-year period. Phylogenetic analyses were performed to identify the circulation of DENV lineages and to trace transmission pathways. Epidemiological data were integrated to analyze trends in dengue incidence and distribution. Additionally, we integrated historical climate data spanning several decades to assess trends in temperature and their potential impact on DENV transmission potential. RESULTS: Our results highlight a previously unknown north-south transmission pathway within the country, with the co-circulation of multiple virus lineages. Additionally, we examine the historical climate data, revealing long-term trends towards higher theoretical potential for dengue transmission due to rising temperatures. CONCLUSION: This multidisciplinary study reveals intricate patterns of dengue virus transmission in the Dominican Republic, characterized by the co-circulation of multiple DENV lineages and a novel transmission pathway. The observed correlation between rising temperatures and increased dengue transmission potential emphasizes the need for integrated climate-informed strategies in dengue control efforts. Our findings offer critical insights for public health authorities in the Dominican Republic and similar settings, guiding resource allocation and the development of preparedness strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on dengue transmission.

The historical ecological background of West Nile virus in Portugal indicates One Health opportunities.

West Nile (WNV) is a zoonotic arbovirus with an expanding geographical range and epidemic activity in Europe. Not having yet experienced a human-associated epidemic, Portugal remains an outlier in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we apply ecological niche modelling informed by WNV historical evidence and a multitude of environmental variables from across Portugal. We identify that ecological backgrounds compatible with WNV historical circulation are mostly restricted to the south, characterized by a warmer and drier climate, high avian diversity, specific avian species and land types. We estimate WNV ecological suitability across the country, identifying overlaps with the distributions of the three relevant hosts (humans, birds, equines) for public and animal health. From this, we propose a category-based spatial framework providing first of a kind valuable insights for WNV surveillance in Portugal under the One Health nexus. We forecast that near future climate trends alone will contribute to pushing adequate WNV ecological suitability northwards, towards regions with higher human density. This unique perspective on the past, present and future ecology of WNV addresses existing national knowledge gaps, enhances our understanding of the evolving emergence of WNV, and offers opportunities to prepare and respond to the first human-associated epidemic in Portugal.

Genomic tailoring of autogenous poultry vaccines to reduce Campylobacter from farm to fork.

Campylobacter is a leading cause of food-borne gastroenteritis worldwide, linked to the consumption of contaminated poultry meat. Targeting this pathogen at source, vaccines for poultry can provide short-term caecal reductions in Campylobacter numbers in the chicken intestine. However, this approach is unlikely to reduce Campylobacter in the food chain or human incidence. This is likely as vaccines typically target only a subset of the high genomic strain diversity circulating among chicken flocks, and rapid evolution diminishes vaccine efficacy over time. To address this, we used a genomic approach to develop a whole-cell autogenous vaccine targeting isolates harbouring genes linked to survival outside of the host. We hyper-immunised a whole major UK breeder farm to passively target offspring colonisation using maternally-derived antibody. Monitoring progeny, broiler flocks revealed a near-complete shift in the post-vaccination Campylobacter population with an ~50% reduction in isolates harbouring extra-intestinal survival genes and a significant reduction of Campylobacter cells surviving on the surface of meat. Based on these findings, we developed a logistic regression model that predicted that vaccine efficacy could be extended to target 65% of a population of clinically relevant strains. Immuno-manipulation of poultry microbiomes towards less harmful commensal isolates by competitive exclusion, has major potential for reducing pathogens in the food production chain.

Exploring the urban arbovirus landscape in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: transmission dynamics and patterns of disease spread.

Background: This study focuses on urban arboviruses, specifically dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV), which pose a significant public health challenge in Rio de Janeiro state, Southeast Brazil. In our research, we highlight critical findings on the transmission dynamics of these arboviruses in Rio de Janeiro, identifying distinct patterns of disease spread. Methods: By combining genomic data with case reports from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, we have analysed the phylogenetics, prevalence and spatial distribution of these endemic viruses within the state. Findings: Our results revealed sustained DENV transmission primarily in the northern part of the state, a significant ZIKV epidemic in 2016 affecting all mesoregions, and two major CHIKV outbreaks in 2018 and 2019, predominantly impacting the northern and southern areas. Our analysis suggests an inverse relationship between arboviral case incidence and urban density, with less populous regions experiencing higher transmission rates, potentially attributed to a complex interplay of factors such as the efficacy of vector control measures, environmental conditions, local immunity levels, and human mobility. Furthermore, our investigation unveiled distinct age and gender trends among affected individuals. Notably, dengue cases were predominantly observed in young adults aged 32, while chikungunya cases were more prevalent among individuals over 41. In contrast, cases of ZIKV were concentrated around the 33-year age group. Intriguingly, females accounted for nearly 60% of the cases, suggesting a potential gender-based difference in infection rates. Interpretation: Our findings underscore the complexity of arbovirus transmission and the need for interventions tailored to different geographical mesoregions. Enhanced surveillance and genomic sequencing will be essential for a deeper, more nuanced understanding of regional arbovirus dynamics. Identifying potential blind spots within the state will be pivotal for developing and implementing more effective public health strategies, specifically designed to address the unique challenges posed by these viruses throughout the state. Funding: This study was supported by the National Institutes of Health USA grant U01 AI151698 for the United World Arbovirus Research Network (UWARN) and the CRP-ICGEB RESEARCH GRANT 2020 Project CRP/BRA20-03.

Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends.

Despite identifying El Niño events as a factor in dengue dynamics, predicting the oscillation of global dengue epidemics remains challenging. Here, we investigate climate indicators and worldwide dengue incidence from 1990 to 2019 using climate-driven mechanistic models. We identify a distinct indicator, the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) index, as representing the regional average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. IOBW is closely associated with dengue epidemics for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The ability of IOBW to predict dengue incidence likely arises as a result of its effect on local temperature anomalies through teleconnections. These findings indicate that the IOBW index can potentially enhance the lead time for dengue forecasts, leading to better-planned and more impactful outbreak responses.

Population structure and history of Mycobacterium bovis European 3 clonal complex reveal transmission across ecological corridors of unrecognized importance in Portugal.

Mycobacterium bovis causes animal tuberculosis in livestock and wildlife, with an impact on animal health and production, wildlife management, and public health. In this work, we sampled a multi-host tuberculosis community from the official hotspot risk area of Portugal over 16 years, generating the largest available data set in the country. Using phylogenetic and ecological modeling, we aimed to reconstruct the history of circulating lineages across the livestock-wildlife interface to inform intervention and the implementation of genomic surveillance within the official eradication plan. We find evidence for the co-circulation of M. bovis European 1 (Eu1), Eu2, and Eu3 clonal complexes, with Eu3 providing sufficient temporal signal for further phylogenetic investigation. The Eu3 most recent common ancestor (bovine) was dated in the 1990s, subsequently transitioning to wildlife (red deer and wild boar). Isolate clustering based on sample metadata was used to inform phylogenetic inference, unravelng frequent transmission between two clusters that represent an ecological corridor of previously unrecognized importance in Portugal. The latter was associated with transmission at the livestock-wildlife interface toward locations with higher temperature and precipitation, lower agriculture and road density, and lower host densities. This is the first analysis of M. bovis Eu3 complex in Iberia, shedding light on background ecological factors underlying long-term transmission and informing where efforts could be focused within the larger hotspot risk area of Portugal. IMPORTANCE: Efforts to strengthen surveillance and control of animal tuberculosis (TB) are ongoing worlwide. Here, we developed an eco-phylodynamic framework based on discrete phylogenetic approaches informed by M. bovis whole-genome sequence data representing a multi-host transmission system at the livestock-wildlife interface, within a rich ecological landscape in Portugal, to understand transmission processes and translate this knowledge into disease management benefits. We find evidence for the co-circulation of several M. bovis clades, with frequent transmission of the Eu3 lineage among cattle and wildlife populations. Most transition events between different ecological settings took place toward host, climate and land use gradients, underscoring animal TB expansion and a potential corridor of unrecognized importance for M. bovis maintenance. Results stress that animal TB is an established wildlife disease without ecological barriers, showing that control measures in place are insufficient to prevent long-distance transmission and spillover across multi-host communities, demanding new interventions targeting livestock-wildlife interactions.

Modelling the transmission dynamics of H9N2 avian influenza viruses in a live bird market.

H9N2 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are a major concern for the poultry sector and human health in countries where this subtype is endemic. By fitting a model simulating H9N2 AIV transmission to data from a field experiment, we characterise the epidemiology of the virus in a live bird market in Bangladesh. Many supplied birds arrive already exposed to H9N2 AIVs, resulting in many broiler chickens entering the market as infected, and many indigenous backyard chickens entering with pre-existing immunity. Most susceptible chickens become infected within one day spent at the market, owing to high levels of viral transmission within market and short latent periods, as brief as 5.3 hours. Although H9N2 AIV transmission can be substantially reduced under moderate levels of cleaning and disinfection, effective risk mitigation also requires a range of additional interventions targeting markets and other nodes along the poultry production and distribution network.

Genomic and eco-epidemiological investigations in Uruguay reveal local Chikungunya virus transmission dynamics during its expansion across the Americas in 2023.

Uruguay experienced its first Chikungunya virus outbreak in 2023, resulting in a significant burden to its healthcare system. We conducted analysis based on real-time genomic surveillance (30 novel whole genomes) to offer timely insights into recent local transmission dynamics and eco-epidemiological factors behind its emergence and spread in the country.

EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networks.

The rapid intensification of poultry production raises important concerns about the associated risks of zoonotic infections. Here, we introduce EPINEST (EPIdemic NEtwork Simulation in poultry Transportation systems): an agent-based modelling framework designed to simulate pathogen transmission within realistic poultry production and distribution networks. We provide example applications to broiler production in Bangladesh, but the modular structure of the model allows for easy parameterization to suit specific countries and system configurations. Moreover, the framework enables the replication of a wide range of eco-epidemiological scenarios by incorporating diverse pathogen life-history traits, modes of transmission and interactions between multiple strains and/or pathogens. EPINEST was developed in the context of an interdisciplinary multi-centre study conducted in Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and Sri Lanka, and will facilitate the investigation of the spreading patterns of various health hazards such as avian influenza, Campylobacter, Salmonella and antimicrobial resistance in these countries. Furthermore, this modelling framework holds potential for broader application in veterinary epidemiology and One Health research, extending its relevance beyond poultry to encompass other livestock species and disease systems.

North-south pathways, emerging variants, and high climate suitability characterize the recent spread of dengue virus serotypes 2 and 3 in the Dominican Republic.

We employ a multidisciplinary approach, integrating genomics and epidemiology, to uncover recent dengue virus transmission dynamics in the Dominican Republic. Our results highlight a previously unknown north-south transmission pathway within the country, with the co-circulation of multiple virus lineages. Additionally, we examine the historical climate data, revealing long-term trends towards higher theoretical potential for dengue transmission due to rising temperatures. These findings provide information for targeted interventions and resource allocation, informing as well towards preparedness strategies for public health agencies in mitigating climate and geo-related dengue risks.

Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil.

In 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.

The metabolic, virulence and antimicrobial resistance profiles of colonising Streptococcus pneumoniae shift after PCV13 introduction in urban Malawi.

Streptococcus pneumoniae causes substantial mortality among children under 5-years-old worldwide. Polysaccharide conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are highly effective at reducing vaccine serotype disease, but emergence of non-vaccine serotypes and persistent nasopharyngeal carriage threaten this success. We investigated the hypothesis that following vaccine, adapted pneumococcal genotypes emerge with the potential for vaccine escape. We genome sequenced 2804 penumococcal isolates, collected 4-8 years after introduction of PCV13 in Blantyre, Malawi. We developed a pipeline to cluster the pneumococcal population based on metabolic core genes into "Metabolic genotypes" (MTs). We show that S. pneumoniae population genetics are characterised by emergence of MTs with distinct virulence and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) profiles. Preliminary in vitro and murine experiments revealed that representative isolates from emerging MTs differed in growth, haemolytic, epithelial infection, and murine colonisation characteristics. Our results suggest that in the context of PCV13 introduction, pneumococcal population dynamics had shifted, a phenomenon that could further undermine vaccine control and promote spread of AMR.

An emerging clade of Chikungunya West African genotype discovered in real-time during 2023 outbreak in Senegal.

Chikungunya (CHIKV) is a re-emerging endemic arbovirus in West Africa. Since July 2023, Senegal and Burkina Faso have been experiencing an ongoing outbreak, with over 300 confirmed cases detected so far in the regions of Kédougou and Tambacounda in Senegal, the largest recorded outbreak yet. CHIKV is typically maintained in a sylvatic cycle in Senegal but its evolution and factors contributing to re-emergence are so far unknown in West Africa, leaving a gap in understanding and responding to recurrent epidemics. We produced, in real-time, the first locally-generated and publicly available CHIKV whole genomes in West Africa, to characterize the genetic diversity of circulating strains, along with phylodynamic analysis to estimate time of emergence and population growth dynamics. A novel strain of the West African genotype, phylogenetically distinct from strains circulating in previous outbreaks, was identified. This suggests a likely new spillover from sylvatic cycles in rural Senegal and potential of seeding larger epidemics in urban settings in Senegal and elsewhere.

Genomics-based timely detection of Dengue Virus type I genotypes I and V in Uruguay.

We report the first whole-genome sequences of Dengue Virus type I genotypes I and V from Uruguay, including the first cases ever reported in the country. Through timely genomic analysis, identification of these genotypes was possible, aiding in timely public health responses and intervention strategies to mitigate the impact of dengue outbreaks.

Genomic and eco-epidemiological investigations in Uruguay reveal local Chikungunya virus transmission dynamics during its expansion across the Americas in 2023.

Uruguay experienced its first Chikungunya virus outbreak in 2023, resulting in a significant burden to its healthcare system. We conducted analysis based on real-time genomic surveillance (30 novel whole genomes) to offer timely insights into recent local transmission dynamics and eco-epidemiological factors behind its emergence and spread in the country.

Rapid Epidemic Expansion of Chikungunya Virus East/Central/South African Lineage, Paraguay.

The spread of Chikungunya virus is a major public health concern in the Americas. There were >120,000 cases and 51 deaths in 2023, of which 46 occurred in Paraguay. Using a suite of genomic, phylodynamic, and epidemiologic techniques, we characterized the ongoing large chikungunya epidemic in Paraguay.

Retrospective Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Dengue Virus 1, 2 and 4 in Paraguay.

Dengue virus (DENV) has been a major public health concern in Paraguay, with frequent outbreaks occurring since early 1988. Although control measures have been implemented, dengue remains a significant health threat in the country, and continued efforts are required for prevention and control. In response to that, in collaboration with the Central Public Health Laboratory in Asunción, we conducted a portable whole-genome sequencing and phylodynamic analysis to investigate DENV viral strains circulating in Paraguay over the past epidemics. Our genomic surveillance activities revealed the co-circulation of multiple DENV serotypes: DENV-1 genotype V, the emerging DENV-2 genotype III, BR4-L2 clade, and DENV-4 genotype II. Results additionally highlight the possible role of Brazil as a source for the international dispersion of different viral strains to other countries in the Americas emphasizing the need for increased surveillance across the borders, for the early detection and response to outbreaks. This, in turn, emphasizes the critical role of genomic surveillance in monitoring and understanding arbovirus transmission and persistence locally and over long distances.