All tidal wetlands are blue carbon ecosystems.

Managing coastal wetlands is one of the most promising activities to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases, and it also contributes to meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. One of the options is through blue carbon projects, in which mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrass are managed to increase carbon sequestration and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, other tidal wetlands align with the characteristics of blue carbon. These wetlands are called tidal freshwater wetlands in the United States, supratidal wetlands in Australia, transitional forests in Southeast Asia, and estuarine forests in South Africa. They have similar or larger potential for atmospheric carbon sequestration and emission reductions than the currently considered blue carbon ecosystems and have been highly exploited. In the present article, we suggest that all wetlands directly or indirectly influenced by tides should be considered blue carbon. Their protection and restoration through carbon offsets could reduce emissions while providing multiple cobenefits, including biodiversity.

Current extent and future opportunities for living shorelines in Australia.

Living shorelines aim to enhance the resilience of coastlines to hazards while simultaneously delivering co-benefits such as carbon sequestration. Despite the potential ecological and socio-economic benefits of living shorelines over conventional engineered coastal protection structures, application is limited globally. Australia has a long and diverse coastline that provides prime opportunities for living shorelines using beaches and dunes, vegetation, and biogenic reefs, which may be either natural ('soft' approach) or with an engineered structural component ('hybrid' approach). Published scientific studies, however, have indicated limited use of living shorelines for coastal protection in Australia. In response, we combined a national survey and interviews of coastal practitioners and a grey and peer-reviewed literature search to (1) identify barriers to living shoreline implementation; and (2) create a database of living shoreline projects in Australia based on sources other than scientific literature. Projects included were those that had either a primary or secondary goal of protection of coastal assets from erosion and/or flooding. We identified 138 living shoreline projects in Australia through the means sampled starting in 1970; with the number of projects increasing through time particularly since 2000. Over half of the total projects (59 %) were considered to be successful according to their initial stated objective (i.e., reducing hazard risk) and 18 % of projects could not be assessed for their success based on the information available. Seventy percent of projects received formal or informal monitoring. Even in the absence of peer-reviewed support for living shoreline construction in Australia, we discovered local and regional increases in their use. This suggests that coastal practitioners are learning on-the-ground, however more generally it was stated that few examples of living shorelines are being made available, suggesting a barrier in information sharing among agencies at a broader scale. A database of living shoreline projects can increase knowledge among practitioners globally to develop best practice that informs technical guidelines for different approaches and helps focus attention on areas for further research.

Rapid diversification of grey mangroves (Avicennia marina) driven by geographic isolation and extreme environmental conditions in the Arabian Peninsula.

Biological systems occurring in ecologically heterogeneous and spatially discontinuous habitats provide an ideal opportunity to investigate the relative roles of neutral and selective factors in driving lineage diversification. The grey mangroves (Avicennia marina) of Arabia occur at the northern edge of the species' range and are subject to variable, often extreme, environmental conditions, as well as historic large fluctuations in habitat availability and connectivity resulting from Quaternary glacial cycles. Here, we analyse fully sequenced genomes sampled from 19 locations across the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea and the Persian/Arabian Gulf (PAG) to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the species in the region and to identify adaptive mechanisms of lineage diversification. Population structure and phylogenetic analyses revealed marked genetic structure correlating with geographic distance and highly supported clades among and within the seas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula. Demographic modelling showed times of divergence consistent with recent periods of geographic isolation and low marine connectivity during glaciations, suggesting the presence of (cryptic) glacial refugia in the Red Sea and the PAG. Significant migration was detected within the Red Sea and the PAG, and across the Strait of Hormuz to the Arabian Sea, suggesting gene flow upon secondary contact among populations. Genetic-environment association analyses revealed high levels of adaptive divergence and detected signs of multi-loci local adaptation driven by temperature extremes and hypersalinity. These results support a process of rapid diversification resulting from the combined effects of historical factors and ecological selection and reveal mangrove peripheral environments as relevant drivers of lineage diversity.

Planning hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands: Key model considerations and solutions.

The hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands is an emerging approach for mitigating and adapting to climate change and enhancing ecosystem services such as improved water quality and biodiversity. This paper synthesises current knowledge on selecting appropriate modelling approaches for hydrological restoration projects. The selection of a modelling approach is based on project-specific factors, such as costs, risks, and uncertainties, and aligns with the overall project objectives. We provide guidance on model selection, emphasising the use of simpler and less expensive modelling approaches when appropriate, and identifying situations when models may not be required for project managers to make informed decisions. This paper recognises and supports the widespread use of hydrological restoration in coastal wetlands by bridging the gap between hydrological science and restoration practices. It underscores the significance of project objectives, budget, and available data and offers decision-making frameworks, such as decision trees, to aid in matching modelling methods with specific project outcomes.

Global dataset of soil organic carbon in tidal marshes.

Tidal marshes store large amounts of organic carbon in their soils. Field data quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks provide an important resource for researchers, natural resource managers, and policy-makers working towards the protection, restoration, and valuation of these ecosystems. We collated a global dataset of tidal marsh soil organic carbon (MarSOC) from 99 studies that includes location, soil depth, site name, dry bulk density, SOC, and/or soil organic matter (SOM). The MarSOC dataset includes 17,454 data points from 2,329 unique locations, and 29 countries. We generated a general transfer function for the conversion of SOM to SOC. Using this data we estimated a median (± median absolute deviation) value of 79.2 ± 38.1 Mg SOC ha-1 in the top 30 cm and 231 ± 134 Mg SOC ha-1 in the top 1 m of tidal marsh soils globally. This data can serve as a basis for future work, and may contribute to incorporation of tidal marsh ecosystems into climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies.

Priority areas to protect mangroves and maximise ecosystem services.

Anthropogenic activities threaten global biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, area-based conservation efforts typically target biodiversity protection whilst minimising conflict with economic activities, failing to consider ecosystem services. Here we identify priority areas that maximise both the protection of mangrove biodiversity and their ecosystem services. We reveal that despite 13.5% of the mangrove distribution being currently strictly protected, all mangrove species are not adequately represented and many areas that provide disproportionally large ecosystem services are missed. Optimising the placement of future conservation efforts to protect 30% of global mangroves potentially safeguards an additional 16.3 billion USD of coastal property value, 6.1 million people, 1173.1 Tg C, and 50.7 million fisher days yr-1. Our findings suggest that there is a pressing need for including ecosystem services in protected area design and that strategic prioritisation and coordination of mangrove conservation could provide substantial benefits to human wellbeing.

Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.

Several coastal ecosystems-most notably mangroves and tidal marshes-exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment1. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs2. The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested3. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr-1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr-1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr-1, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr-1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world's mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr-1. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.

Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes.

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 ('Life below Water') of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia-Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds.

Land Tenure, Ownership and Use as Barriers to Coastal Wetland Restoration Projects in Australia: Recommendations and Solutions.

Globally, there is an urgent need for widespread restoration of coastal wetlands like mangroves and saltmarsh. This restoration has been slow to progress in Australia for a number of reasons, including legal issues surrounding land tenure, ownership and use. This paper uses the responses to a survey of coastal zone experts to identify and articulate these legal issues, before considering and analysing in-depth recommendations, solutions and levers to facilitate restoration, and areas where further research or possible policy and/or law reform is needed. It calls for legislative reform to clarify tidal boundaries generally and under sea-level rise, greater use of incentive schemes to encourage the uptake of restoration projects, and utilisation of contracts and land-based covenants to secure projects and carbon flows.

Quantifying blue carbon stocks and the role of protected areas to conserve coastal wetlands.

Vegetated coastal ecosystems, in particular mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses are highly efficient at sequestering and storing carbon, making them valuable assets for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The state of Queensland, in northeastern Australia, contains almost half of the total area of these blue carbon ecosystems in the country, yet there are few detailed regional or state-wide assessments of their total sedimentary organic carbon (SOC) stocks. We compiled existing SOC data and used boosted regression tree models to evaluate the influence of environmental variables in explaining the variability in SOC stocks, and to produce spatially explicit blue carbon estimates. The final models explained 75 % (for mangroves and tidal marshes) and 65 % (for seagrasses) of the variability in SOC stocks. Total SOC stocks in the state of Queensland were estimated at 569 ± 98 Tg C (173 ± 32 Tg C, 232 ± 50 Tg C, and 164 ± 16 Tg C from mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses, respectively). Regional predictions for each of Queensland's eleven Natural Resource Management regions revealed that 60 % of the state's SOC stocks occurred within three regions (Cape York, Torres Strait and Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management regions) due to a combination of high values of SOC stocks and large areas of coastal wetlands. Protected areas in Queensland play an important role in conserving SOC assets in Queensland's coastal wetlands. For example, ~19 Tg C within terrestrial protected areas, ~27 Tg C within marine protected areas and ~ 40 Tg C within areas of matters of State Environmental Significance. Using multi-decadal (1987-2020) mapped distributions of mangroves in Queensland; we found that mangrove area increased by approximately 30,000 ha from 1987 to 2020, which led to temporal fluctuations in mangrove plant and SOC stocks. We estimated that plant stocks decreased from ~45 Tg C in 1987 to ~34.2 Tg C in 2020, while SOC stocks remained relatively constant from ~107.9 Tg C in 1987 to 108.0 Tg C in 2020. Considering the level of current protection, emissions from mangrove deforestation are potentially very low; therefore, representing minor opportunities for mangrove blue carbon projects in the region. Our study provides much needed information on current trends in carbon stocks and their conservation in Queensland's coastal wetlands, while also contributing to guide future management actions, including blue carbon restoration projects.

Importance of mangrove plantations for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh.

Mangroves have been identified as blue carbon ecosystems that are natural carbon sinks. In Bangladesh, the establishment of mangrove plantations for coastal protection has occurred since the 1960s, but the plantations may also be a sustainable pathway to enhance carbon sequestration, which can help Bangladesh meet its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets, contributing to climate change mitigation. As a part of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement 2016, Bangladesh is committed to limiting the GHG emissions through the expansion of mangrove plantations, but the level of carbon removal that could be achieved through the establishment of plantations has not yet been estimated. The mean ecosystem carbon stock of 5-42 years aged (average age: 25.5 years) mangrove plantations was 190.1 (±30.3) Mg C ha-1 , with ecosystem carbon stocks varying regionally. The biomass carbon stock was 60.3 (±5.6) Mg C ha-1 and the soil carbon stock was 129.8 (±24.8) Mg C ha-1 in the top 1 m of which 43.9 Mg C ha-1 was added to the soil after plantation establishment. Plantations at age 5 to 42 years achieved 52% of the mean ecosystem carbon stock calculated for the reference site (Sundarbans natural mangroves). Since 1966, the 28,000 ha of established plantations to the east of the Sundarbans have accumulated approximately 76,607 Mg C year-1 sequestration in biomass and 37,542 Mg C year-1 sequestration in soils, totaling 114,149 Mg C year-1 . Continuation of the current plantation success rate would sequester an additional 664,850 Mg C by 2030, which is 4.4% of Bangladesh's 2030 GHG reduction target from all sectors described in its NDC, however, plantations for climate change mitigation would be most effective 20 years after establishment. Higher levels of investment in mangrove plantations and higher plantation establishment success could contribute up to 2,098,093 Mg C to blue carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation in Bangladesh by 2030.

Challenges and opportunities for achieving Sustainable Development Goals through restoration of Indonesia's mangroves.

Indonesia, the most mangrove-rich nation in the world, has proposed the most globally ambitious mangrove rehabilitation target (600,000 ha) of any nation, to be achieved by 2024 to support multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 1-3, 6, 13 and 14). Yet, mangrove restoration and rehabilitation across the world have often suffered low success rates and been applied at small scales. Here, we identify 193,367 ha (estimated costs at US$0.29-1.74 billion) that have the potential to align with the national mangrove rehabilitation programme. Despite being only 30% of the national target, our robust assessment considered biogeomorphology, 20 years of land-use and land-cover change and state forest land status, all key factors moderating mangrove restoration success which have often been neglected in Indonesia. Increasing subnational government representation in mangrove governance as well as improving monitoring and evaluation will increase the likelihood of achieving the mangrove rehabilitation targets and reduce risks of failure. Rehabilitating and conserving mangroves in Indonesia could benefit 74 million coastal people and can potentially contribute to the national land-sector emissions reduction of up to 16%.

Discovering marine biodiversity in the 21st century.

We review the current knowledge of the biodiversity of the ocean as well as the levels of decline and threat for species and habitats. The lack of understanding of the distribution of life in the ocean is identified as a significant barrier to restoring its biodiversity and health. We explore why the science of taxonomy has failed to deliver knowledge of what species are present in the ocean, how they are distributed and how they are responding to global and regional to local anthropogenic pressures. This failure prevents nations from meeting their international commitments to conserve marine biodiversity with the results that investment in taxonomy has declined in many countries. We explore a range of new technologies and approaches for discovery of marine species and their detection and monitoring. These include: imaging methods, molecular approaches, active and passive acoustics, the use of interconnected databases and citizen science. Whilst no one method is suitable for discovering or detecting all groups of organisms many are complementary and have been combined to give a more complete picture of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We conclude that integrated approaches represent the best way forwards for accelerating species discovery, description and biodiversity assessment. Examples of integrated taxonomic approaches are identified from terrestrial ecosystems. Such integrated taxonomic approaches require the adoption of cybertaxonomy approaches and will be boosted by new autonomous sampling platforms and development of machine-speed exchange of digital information between databases.

Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systems.

Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers. Here, we assess the relationship between socioeconomic and biophysical variables and mangrove change across coastal geomorphic units worldwide from 1996 to 2016. Globally, we find that drivers of loss can also be drivers of gain, and that drivers have changed over 20 years. The association with economic growth appears to have reversed, shifting from negatively impacting mangroves in the first decade to enabling mangrove expansion in the second decade. Importantly, we find that community forestry is promoting mangrove expansion, whereas conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, often occurring in protected areas, results in high loss. Sustainable development, community forestry, and co-management of protected areas are promising strategies to reverse mangrove losses, increasing the capacity of mangroves to support human-livelihoods and combat climate change.

Mangroves provide blue carbon ecological value at a low freshwater cost.

"Blue carbon" wetland vegetation has a limited freshwater requirement. One type, mangroves, utilizes less freshwater during transpiration than adjacent terrestrial ecoregions, equating to only 43% (average) to 57% (potential) of evapotranspiration ([Formula: see text]). Here, we demonstrate that comparative consumptive water use by mangrove vegetation is as much as 2905 kL H2O ha-1 year-1 less than adjacent ecoregions with [Formula: see text]-to-[Formula: see text] ratios of 47-70%. Lower porewater salinity would, however, increase mangrove [Formula: see text]-to-[Formula: see text] ratios by affecting leaf-, tree-, and stand-level eco-physiological controls on transpiration. Restricted water use is also additive to other ecosystem services provided by mangroves, such as high carbon sequestration, coastal protection and support of biodiversity within estuarine and marine environments. Low freshwater demand enables mangroves to sustain ecological values of connected estuarine ecosystems with future reductions in freshwater while not competing with the freshwater needs of humans. Conservative water use may also be a characteristic of other emergent blue carbon wetlands.

Tackling the mangrove restoration challenge.

Mangroves have been converted and degraded for decades. Rates of loss have declined over the past decades, but achieving resilient coastlines requires both conservation and restoration. Here, we outline the challenges for the global restoration of mangroves and what actions could enhance restoration. Ambitious global targets for mangrove restoration, if successful, could deliver global benefits of carbon sequestration, fisheries production, biodiversity, and coastal protection. However, large-scale mangrove planting efforts have often failed, and smaller projects may not deliver landscape-scale benefits, even though they are more suited to community management. Solutions to achieving global targets include reducing risks of large projects and increasing the uptake and effectiveness of smaller projects. Sustainable mangrove restoration requires investment in capacity building in communities and institutions, and mechanisms to match restoration opportunities with prospective supporters and investors. Global reporting standards will support adaptive management and help fully understand and monitor the benefits of mangrove restoration.

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise.

Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.

Nature-based solutions for atoll habitability.

Atoll societies have adapted their environments and social systems for thousands of years, but the rapid pace of climate change may bring conditions that exceed their adaptive capacities. There is growing interest in the use of 'nature-based solutions' to facilitate the continuation of dignified and meaningful lives on atolls through a changing climate. However, there remains insufficient evidence to conclude that these can make a significant contribution to adaptation on atolls, let alone to develop standards and guidelines for their implementation. A sustained programme of research to clarify the potential of nature-based solutions to support the habitability of atolls is therefore vital. In this paper, we provide a prospectus to guide this research programme: we explain the challenge climate change poses to atoll societies, discuss past and potential future applications of nature-based solutions and outline an agenda for transdisciplinary research to advance knowledge of the efficacy and feasibility of nature-based solutions to sustain the habitability of atolls. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems'.