Development and validation of a simple nomogram for predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a disease caused by blood clots, tumor embolism, and other emboli within the pulmonary arteries. Various scoring scales are used for PE. One such same is the PESI, but it has 12 variables, making it inconvenient for clinical application. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop a new simple nomogram model to assess 30-day survival in PE patients. The new nomogram makes it easier and faster for clinicians to assess the prognosis of patients with PE. METHODS: We collected data about the patients with PE from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) database and used the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the ROC curve (AUROC), calibration plot, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the predictive power of the new model, and compared these with the PESI. RESULTS: According to the multivariable Cox regression model results, alongside the actual clinical conditions, we included the following seven variables: race, bicarbonate, age, tumor, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body temperature, and oxygen saturation (Spo2). The AUROC of the new model was greater than 0.70. Its IDI exceeded 0, but with P-value>0.05. CONCLUSION: The predictive performance of the new model was not worse than the PESI, but the new model only has seven variables, and is therefore more convenient for clinicians to use.

Association of lactate to albumin ratio and bicarbonate with short-term mortality risk in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have indicated that the ratio of lactate/albumin (L/A) has predictive value for the prognosis of critically ill patients with heart failure. Some studies have also indicated that a low serum bicarbonate concentration is inversely related to the mortality risk of patients with cardiogenic shock. However, the value of bicarbonate and the L/A ratio for predicting the mortality risk of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is still unclear. We therefore conducted a retrospective study to research this problem. METHODS: The subjects of this study were patients with AMI, and the data source was the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. The primary endpoint was 30-day all-cause mortality after admission. The Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to compare the predictive value of L/A ratio, lactate and albumin for end-point events. The effects of different L/A ratio levels and different bicarbonate concentrations on 7-day and 30-day all-cause mortality were compared using Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves. Hazard ratios for different L/A ratio and different bicarbonate concentrations were investigated using COX proportional hazards models. RESULTS: The Area Under Curve (AUC) of L/A ratio, lactate, and albumin were 0.736, 0.718, and 0.620, respectively. (1) L/A ratio: The patients were divided into three groups according to their L/A ratio: tertile T1 (L/A ratio ≤ 0.47), tertile T2 (L/A ratio ≤ 0.97), and tertile T3 (L/A ratio > 0.97). The T2 and T3 groups had higher 30-day all-cause mortality risks than the T1 group. The restricted cubic spline (RCS) model indicated that there was a nonlinear relationship between L/A ratio and 30-day mortality (P < 0.05). (2) Bicarbonate concentration: The patients were also divided into three groups based on their bicarbonate concentration: G1 (22-27 mmol/L), G2 (< 22 mmol/L), and G3 (> 27 mmol/L). The G2 and G3 groups had higher 30-day all-cause mortality risks than the G1 group. The RCS model indicated that there was a nonlinear relationship between bicarbonate concentration and 30-day mortality (P < 0.05). The RCS model indicated that there was a nonlinear relationship between hemoglobin level and 30-day all-cause mortality (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: L/A ratio and bicarbonate concentration and hemoglobin level have predictive value for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction.