Estimating PM2.5-related premature mortality and morbidity associated with future wildfire emissions in the western US.

Wildfire activity in the western United States (US) has been increasing, a trend that has been correlated with changing patterns of temperature and precipitation associated with climate change. Health effects associated with exposure to wildfire smoke and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) include short- and long-term premature mortality, hospital admissions, emergency department visits, and other respiratory and cardiovascular incidents. We estimate PM2.5 exposure and health impacts for the entire continental US from current and future western US wildfire activity projected for a range of future climate scenarios through the 21st century. We use a simulation approach to estimate wildfire activity, area burned, fine particulate emissions, air quality concentrations, health effects, and economic valuation of health effects, using established and novel methodologies. We find that climatic factors increase wildfire pollutant emissions by an average of 0.40% per year over the 2006-2100 period under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (lower emissions scenarios) and 0.71% per year for RCP8.5. As a consequence, spatially weighted wildfire PM2.5 concentrations more than double for some climate model projections by the end of the 21st century. PM2.5 exposure changes, combined with population projections, result in a wildfire PM2.5-related premature mortality excess burden in the 2090 RCP8.5 scenario that is roughly 3.5 times larger than in the baseline period. The combined effect of increased wildfire activity, population growth, and increase in the valuation of avoided risk of premature mortality over time results in a large increase in total economic impact of wildfire-related PM2.5 mortality and morbidity in the continental US, from roughly $7 billion per year in the baseline period to roughly $36 billion per year in 2090 for RCP4.5, and $43 billion per year in RCP8.5. The climate effect alone accounts for a roughly 60% increase in wildfire PM2.5-related premature mortality in the RCP8.5 scenario, relative to baseline conditions.

Large-area low-noise flexible organic photodiodes for detecting faint visible light.

Silicon photodiodes are the foundation of light-detection technology; yet their rigid structure and limited area scaling at low cost hamper their use in several emerging applications. A detailed methodology for the characterization of organic photodiodes based on polymeric bulk heterojunctions reveals the influence that charge-collecting electrodes have on the electronic noise at low frequency. The performance of optimized organic photodiodes is found to rival that of low-noise silicon photodiodes in all metrics within the visible spectral range, except response time, which is still video-rate compatible. Solution-processed organic photodiodes offer several design opportunities exemplified in a biometric monitoring application that uses ring-shaped, large-area, flexible, organic photodiodes with silicon-level performance.