ABSTRACT
Background and Aim: Sofosbuvir-velpatasvir was recommended for subsidy to treat chronic hepatitis C in Singapore in 2018. We measured the impact of the subsidy decision on clinical practice and patient outcomes. Specifically, we looked at pre- and post-subsidy changes in the utilization and prescribing pattern of chronic hepatitis C treatment and the real-world clinical effectiveness. Method: Utilization trends and prescribing patterns were assessed using aggregated drug utilization data from public hospitals' dispensing systems and clinical data from the national electronic health record database, respectively. An audit was conducted to evaluate sustained virological response rate 12 weeks post treatment (SVR12). Results: Use of sofosbuvir-velpatasvir increased sharply since its subsidy listing and dropped subsequently, whereas the utilization of comparator drugs remained low. Prescribing rate of sofosbuvir-velpatasvir increased from 13.7% in the pre-subsidy period to 90.2% in the post-subsidy period; 39.1% of patients previously on pegylated interferon and ribavirin switched to sofosbuvir-velpatasvir following its subsidy listing. In the audit, 365 out of 375 patients (97.3% [95% confidence interval: 95.1-98.6%]) achieved SVR12. Conclusion: The subsidy decision led to increased accessibility to patients and intended changes in clinical practice. Sofosbuvir-velpatasvir was also clinically effective in the real world. These findings augur well for the continued eradication of chronic hepatitis C infection in Singapore.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: No large-scale Zika epidemic has been observed to date in Southeast Asia following the 2015-16 Latin American and the Caribbean epidemic. One hypothesis is Southeast Asian populations' partial immunity to Zika. METHOD: We estimated the two conditions for a Zika outbreak emergence in Southeast Asia: (i) the risk of Zika introduction from Latin America and the Caribbean and, (ii) the risk of autochthonous transmission under varying assumptions on population immunity. We also validated the model used to estimate the risk of introduction by comparing the estimated number of Zika seeds introduced into the United States with case counts reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). RESULTS: There was good agreement between our estimates and case counts reported by the CDC. We thus applied the model to Southeast Asia and estimated that, on average, 1-10 seeds were introduced into Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. We also found increasing population immunity levels from 0 to 90% reduced probability of autochthonous transmission by 40% and increasing individual variation in transmission further reduced the outbreak probability. CONCLUSIONS: Population immunity, combined with heterogeneity in transmission, can explain why no large-scale outbreak was observed in Southeast Asia during the 2015-16 epidemic.
