Factors Associated with the Number of Injured and Fatalities in Motor Vehicle Intentional Mass-Casualty Incidents: A Timely Aid for Scaling the Emergency Response.

INTRODUCTION: Intentional mass-casualty incidents (IMCIs) involving motor vehicles (MVs) as weapons represent a growing trend in Western countries. This method has resulted in the highest casualty rates per incident within the field of IMCIs. Consequently, there is an urgent requirement for a timely and accurate casualty estimation in MV-induced IMCIs to scale and adjust the necessary health care resources. STUDY OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to identify the factors associated with the number of casualties during the initial phase of MV-IMCIs. METHODS: This is a retrospective, observational, analytical study on MV-IMCIs world-wide, from 2000-2021. Data were obtained from three different sources: Targeted Automobile Ramming Mass-Casualty Attacks (TARMAC) Attack Database, Global Terrorism Database (GTD), and the vehicle-ramming attack page from the Wikipedia website. Jacobs' formula was used to estimate the population density in the vehicle's route. The primary outcome variables were the total number of casualties (injured and fatalities). Associations between variables were analyzed using Spearman's correlation coefficient and simple linear regression. RESULTS: Forty-six MV-IMCIs resulted in 1,636 casualties (1,430 injured and 206 fatalities), most of them caused by cars. The most frequent driving pattern was accelerating whilst approaching the target, with an average speed range between four to 130km/h and a distance traveled between ten to 2,260 meters. The people estimated in the MV-IMCI scenes ranged from 36-245,717. A significant positive association was found of the number affected with the estimated crowd in the scene (R2: 0.64; 95% CI, 0.61-0.67; P <.001) and the average vehicle speed (R2: 0.42; 95% CI, 0.40-0.44; P = .004). CONCLUSION: The estimated number of people in the affected area and vehicle's average speed are the most significant variables associated with the number of casualties in MV-IMCIs, helping to enable a timely estimation of the casualties.

A Spanish Intentional Mass-Casualty Incidents Medical Response Model: Delphi Consensus.

The increase in global violence in recent years has changed the paradigm of emergency health care, requiring early medical response to victims in hostile settings where the usual work cannot be done safely. In Spain, this specific role is provided by the Tactical Environment Medical Support Teams (in Spanish, EMAETs). The Victoria I Consensus document defines and recognizes this role, whose main lines of work are the emergency medical response to the tactical team and to the victims in areas under indirect threat, provided that the tactical operators can guarantee their safety. To reinforce the suitability of this approach, we submitted the possible outcomes of this response model to a panel of national experts to assess this proposal in the different areas of Spain. The chosen research design is a conventional Delphi method, based on the content of the Victoria I Consensus response model. The panel of 52 expert reviewers from 11 different regions were surveyed anonymously; a high degree of accord was recognized when the congruence of the responses exceeded 75%. Consensus agreement was reached in all sections of the survey after two iterations. Specific contributions and recommendations were made to achieve unanimous consensus despite the population and resource differences in the country. Our results suggest that the EMAET approach is useful in areas with short response times. However, in more sparsely populated areas, this may not be feasible, and a more pragmatic response model may be suitable.

Victory I Consensus Document: Proposal for the Implementation of the Hartford Doctrine in the Spanish Context.

Several international recommendations advise adapting military healthcare response models to intentional mass casualty incidents (IMCIs) in civil environments. The IMCI experience and associated published research from the United States, where these situations are frequent and properly analyzed more often, are, unfortunately, not directly applicable to the Spanish model of emergency medical services (EMS), where each autonomous region has its own competencies and protocols. However, there is a series of common elements that served as a reference for the development of an effective, evidence- based, IMCI consensus response plan called Victoria I. In this plan, we have tried to define each intervening role during an IMCI, from the occasional first responder to the final hospital staff at the reference trauma centers. We believe that each professional role in this response chain, on and off the scene, must have a clear mission and function to improve victim survival.