ABSTRACT
Despite various efforts and policy implementation aimed at controlling and eliminating malaria, imported malaria remains a major factor posing challenges in places that have made progress in malaria elimination. The persistence of malaria in Limpopo Province has largely been attributed to imported cases, thus reducing the pace of achieving the malaria-free target by 2025. Data from the Limpopo Malaria Surveillance Database System (2010-2020) was analyzed, and a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed to forecast malaria incidence based on the incidence data's temporal autocorrelation. The study found that out of 57,288 people that were tested, 51,819 (90.5%) cases were local while 5469 (9.5%) cases were imported. Mozambique (44.9%), Zimbabwe (35.7%), and Ethiopia (8.5%) were the highest contributors of imported cases. The month of January recorded the highest incidence of cases while the least was in August. Analysis of the yearly figures showed an increasing trend and seasonal variation of recorded malaria cases. The SARIMA (3,1,1) X (3,1,0) [12] model used in predicting expected malaria case incidences for three consecutive years showed a decline in malaria incidences. The study demonstrated that imported malaria accounted for 9.5% of all cases. There is a need to re-focus on health education campaigns on malaria prevention methods and strengthening of indoor residual spray programs. Bodies collaborating toward malaria elimination in the Southern Africa region need to ensure a practical delivery of the objectives.
Subject(s)
Malaria , Humans , Malaria/epidemiology , Malaria/prevention & control , Africa, Southern , Seasons , Incidence , Ethiopia/epidemiology , TravelABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: As South Africa strives to achieve malaria elimination by 2018 (zero local cases) the country needs to strengthen its disease surveillance system by reducing the timeliness from case diagnosis to notification of key stakeholders in the malaria programme. This study evaluated the feasibility of a 24-h mobile reporting system, designed for speeding up malaria notifications, from primary healthcare facilities to district, provincial, and national malaria programmes in South Africa. METHODS: A prospective descriptive study utilizing primary data collected from structured interviews with healthcare workers in public healthcare facilities was used to compare two reporting systems (24-h mobile reporting system and the paper-based reporting system) in malaria endemic provinces (Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal). Data on completeness of reporting, simplicity, user acceptability and technical limitations were analysed. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare the time difference between the two reporting systems. RESULTS: There were 1819 cases of malaria reported through the paper-based system, and 63.2% (1149) of those cases were also reported through the 24-h mobile reporting system. Out of the 272 healthcare workers who were interviewed, 40% (108) had seen malaria patients and reported a case through the 24-h mobile reporting system. The median time for cases to be reported through the 24-h mobile reporting system was significantly shorter at < 1 day (range < 1 to 31 days) compared to the paper-based system at 3 days (range 2 to > 39 days) (p < 0.001). It was found that 26% (28) were able to use the system and send reports within 2 min, 94% (256) were willing to continue to use the system. Of the 108 healthcare workers who reported a case, 18.5% (20) experienced network challenges. CONCLUSIONS: The 24-h mobile reporting system is user friendly and trained healthcare workers are willing to use the system, despite network limitations. The 24-h mobile reporting system reduces the time required for diagnosed cases to be notified by the health care facility to district, provincial and national levels. The 24-h mobile reporting system is a feasible option for malaria notification in South Africa and will assist with early detection of malaria outbreaks.
