A heteroskedastic model of Park Grass spring hay yields in response to weather suggests continuing yield decline with climate change in future decades.

UK grasslands perform important environmental and economic functions, but their future productivity under climate change is uncertain. Spring hay yields from 1902 to 2016 at one site (the Park Grass Long Term Experiment) in southern England under four different fertilizer regimes were modelled in response to weather (seasonal temperature and rainfall). The modelling approach applied comprised: (1) a Bayesian model comparison to model parametrically the heteroskedasticity in a gamma likelihood function; (2) a Bayesian varying intercept multiple regression model with an autoregressive lag one process (to incorporate the effect of productivity in the previous year) of the response of hay yield to weather from 1902 to 2016. The model confirmed that warmer and drier years, specifically, autumn, winter and spring, in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries reduced yield. The model was applied to forecast future spring hay yields at Park Grass under different climate change scenarios (HadGEM2 and GISS RCP 4.5 and 8.5). This application indicated that yields are forecast to decline further between 2020 and 2080, by as much as 48-50%. These projections are specific to Park Grass, but implied a severe reduction in grassland productivity in southern England with climate change during the twenty-first century.

The impact of weather and increased atmospheric CO2 from 1892 to 2016 on simulated yields of UK wheat.

Climate change effects on UK winter wheat grain yield are complex: warmer temperature, negative; greater carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, positive; but other environmental variables and their timing also affect yield. In the absence of long-term experiments where temperature and CO2 concentration were manipulated separately, we applied the crop simulation model Sirius with long-term daily meteorological data (1892-2016) for Rothamsted, Hertfordshire, UK (2007-2016 mean growing season temperature 1.03°C warmer than 1892-1991), and CO2 concentration over this period, to investigate the separate effects of historic CO2 and weather on simulated grain yield in three wheat cultivars of the modern era. We show a slight decline in simulated yield over the period 1892-2016 from the effect of weather (daily temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours) at fixed CO2 (294.50 ppm, 1892 reference value), but a maximum 9.4% increase when accounting for increasing atmospheric CO2 (from 294.50 to 404.21 ppm), differing slightly among cultivars. Notwithstanding considerable inter-annual variation, the slight yield decline at 294.50 ppm CO2 over this 125-year period from the historic weather simulations for Rothamsted agrees with the expected decline from temperature increase alone, but the positive yield trend with actual CO2 values does not match the recent stagnation in UK wheat yield.

Substrate control of sulphur utilisation and microbial stoichiometry in soil: Results of 13C, 15N, 14C, and 35S quad labelling.

Global plant sulphur (S) deficiency is increasing because of a reduction in sulphate-based fertiliser application combined with continuous S withdrawal during harvest. Here, we applied 13C, 15N, 14C, and 35S quad labelling of the S-containing amino acids cysteine (Cys) and methionine (Met) to understand S cycling and microbial S transformations in the soil. The soil microorganisms absorbed the applied Cys and Met within minutes and released SO42- within hours. The SO42- was reutilised by the MB within days. The initial microbial utilisation and SO42- release were determined by amino acid structure. Met released 2.5-fold less SO42- than Cys. The microbial biomass retained comparatively more C and S from Met than Cys. The microorganisms decomposed Cys to pyruvate and H2S whereas they converted Met to α-ketobutyrate and S-CH3. The microbial stoichiometries of C, N, and S derived from Cys and Met were balanced after 4 d by Cys-derived SO42- uptake and Met-derived CO2 release. The microbial C:N:S ratio dynamics showed rapid C utilisation and loss, stable N levels, and S accumulation. Thus, short-term organic S utilisation by soil microorganisms is determined by amino acid structure whilst long-term organic S utilisation by soil microorganisms is determined by microbially controlled stoichiometry.

Stomatal conductance limited the CO2 response of grassland in the last century.

BACKGROUND: The anthropogenic increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) is impacting carbon (C), water, and nitrogen (N) cycles in grassland and other terrestrial biomes. Plant canopy stomatal conductance is a key player in these coupled cycles: it is a physiological control of vegetation water use efficiency (the ratio of C gain by photosynthesis to water loss by transpiration), and it responds to photosynthetic activity, which is influenced by vegetation N status. It is unknown if the ca-increase and climate change over the last century have already affected canopy stomatal conductance and its links with C and N processes in grassland. RESULTS: Here, we assessed two independent proxies of (growing season-integrating canopy-scale) stomatal conductance changes over the last century: trends of δ18O in cellulose (δ18Ocellulose) in archived herbage from a wide range of grassland communities on the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted (U.K.) and changes of the ratio of yields to the CO2 concentration gradient between the atmosphere and the leaf internal gas space (ca - ci). The two proxies correlated closely (R2 = 0.70), in agreement with the hypothesis. In addition, the sensitivity of δ18Ocellulose changes to estimated stomatal conductance changes agreed broadly with published sensitivities across a range of contemporary field and controlled environment studies, further supporting the utility of δ18Ocellulose changes for historical reconstruction of stomatal conductance changes at Park Grass. Trends of δ18Ocellulose differed strongly between plots and indicated much greater reductions of stomatal conductance in grass-rich than dicot-rich communities. Reductions of stomatal conductance were connected with reductions of yield trends, nitrogen acquisition, and nitrogen nutrition index. Although all plots were nitrogen-limited or phosphorus- and nitrogen-co-limited to different degrees, long-term reductions of stomatal conductance were largely independent of fertilizer regimes and soil pH, except for nitrogen fertilizer supply which promoted the abundance of grasses. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that some types of temperate grassland may have attained saturation of C sink activity more than one century ago. Increasing N fertilizer supply may not be an effective climate change mitigation strategy in many grasslands, as it promotes the expansion of grasses at the disadvantage of the more CO2 responsive forbs and N-fixing legumes.

Assessing the evolution of wheat grain traits during the last 166 years using archived samples.

The current study focuses on yield and nutritional quality changes of wheat grain over the last 166 years. It is based on wheat grain quality analyses carried out on samples collected between 1850 and 2016. Samples were obtained from the Broadbalk Continuous Wheat Experiment (UK) and from herbaria from 16 different countries around the world. Our study showed that, together with an increase in carbohydrate content, an impoverishment of mineral composition and protein content occurred. The imbalance in carbohydrate/protein content was specially marked after the 1960's, coinciding with strong increases in ambient [CO2] and temperature and the introduction of progressively shorter straw varieties. The implications of altered crop physiology are discussed.

Investigating the effects of inter-annual weather variation (1968-2016) on the functional response of cereal grain yield to applied nitrogen, using data from the Rothamsted Long-Term Experiments.

The effect of weather on inter-annual variation in the crop yield response to nitrogen (N) fertilizer for winter wheat (Triticum aestivvum L.) and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) was investigated using yield data from the Broadbalk Wheat and Hoosfield Spring Barley long-term experiments at Rothamsted Research. Grain yields of crops from 1968 to 2016 were modelled as a function of N rates using a linear-plus-exponential (LEXP) function. The extent to which inter-annual variation in the parameters of these responses was explained by variations in weather (monthly summarized temperatures and rainfall), and by changes in the cultivar grown, was assessed. The inter-annual variability in rainfall and underlying temperature influenced the crop N response and hence grain yields in both crops. Asymptotic yields in wheat were particularly sensitive to mean temperature in November, April and May, and to total rainfall in October, February and June. In spring barley asymptotic yields were sensitive to mean temperature in February and June, and to total rainfall in April to July inclusive and September. The method presented here explores the separation of agronomic and environmental (weather) influences on crop yield over time. Fitting N response curves across multiple treatments can support an informative analysis of the influence of weather variation on the yield variability. Whilst there are issues of the confounding and collinearity of explanatory variables within such models, and that other factors also influence yields over time, our study confirms the considerable impact of weather variables at certain times of the year. This emphasizes the importance of including weather temporal variation when evaluating the impacts of climate change on crops.

Changes of oxygen isotope values of soil P pools associated with changes in soil pH.

Field data about the effect of soil pH on phosphorus (P) cycling is limited. A promising tool to study P cycling under field conditions is the 18O:16O ratio of phosphate (δ18OP). In this study we investigate whether the δ18OP can be used to elucidate the effect of soil pH on P cycling in grasslands. Soils and plants were sampled from different fertilisation and lime treatments of the Park Grass long term experiment at Rothamsted Research, UK. The soils were sequentially extracted to isolate different soil P pools, including available P and corresponding δ18OP values were determined. We did not observe changes in plant δ18OP value, but soil P δ18OP values changed, and lower δ18OP values were associated with higher soil pH values. At sites where P was not limiting, available P δ18OP increased by up to 3‰ when lime was applied. We show that the δ18OP method is a useful tool to investigate the effect of pH on soil P cycling under field conditions as it highlights that different soil processes must govern P availability as pH shifts. The next challenge is now to identify these underlying processes, enabling better management of soil P at different pH.

The Multi-Fungicide Resistance Status of Aspergillus fumigatus Populations in Arable Soils and the Wider European Environment.

The evolution and spread of pan-azole resistance alleles in clinical and environmental isolates of Aspergillus fumigatus is a global human health concern. The identification of hotspots for azole resistance development in the wider environment can inform optimal measures to counteract further spread by minimizing exposure to azole fungicides and reducing inoculum build-up and pathogen dispersal. We investigated the fungicide sensitivity status of soil populations sampled from arable crops and the wider environment and compared these with urban airborne populations. Low levels of azole resistance were observed for isolates carrying the CYP51A variant F46Y/M172V/E427K, all belonging to a cluster of related cell surface protein (CSP) types which included t07, t08, t13, t15, t19, and t02B, a new allele. High levels of resistance were found in soil isolates carrying CYP51A variants TR34/L98H and TR46/Y121F/T289A, all belonging to CSP types t01, t02, t04B, or t11. TR46/Y121F/M172V/T289A/G448S (CSP t01) and TR46/Y121F/T289A/S363P/I364V/G448S (CSP t01), a new haplotype associated with high levels of resistance, were isolated from Dutch urban air samples, indicating azole resistance evolution is ongoing. Based on low numbers of pan-azole resistant isolates and lack of new genotypes in soils of fungicide-treated commercial and experimental wheat crops, we consider arable crop production as a coldspot for azole resistance development, in contrast to previously reported flower bulb waste heaps. This study also shows that, in addition to azole resistance, several lineages of A. fumigatus carrying TR-based CYP51A variants have also developed acquired resistance to methyl benzimidazole carbamate, quinone outside inhibitor and succinate dehydrogenase (Sdh) inhibitor fungicides through target-site alterations in the corresponding fungicide target proteins; beta-tubulin (F200Y), cytochrome b (G143A), and Sdh subunit B (H270Y and H270R), respectively. Molecular typing showed that several multi-fungicide resistant strains found in agricultural soils in this study were clonal as identical isolates have been found earlier in the environment and/or in patients. Further research on the spread of different fungicide-resistant alleles from the wider environment to patients and vice versa can inform optimal practices to tackle the further spread of antifungal resistance in A. fumigatus populations and to safeguard the efficacy of azoles for future treatment of invasive aspergillosis.

The electronic Rothamsted Archive (e-RA), an online resource for data from the Rothamsted long-term experiments.

The electronic Rothamsted Archive, e-RA (www.era.rothamsted.ac.uk) provides a permanent managed database to both securely store and disseminate data from Rothamsted Research's long-term field experiments (since 1843) and meteorological stations (since 1853). Both historical and contemporary data are made available via this online database which provides the scientific community with access to a unique continuous record of agricultural experiments and weather measured since the mid-19th century. Qualitative information, such as treatment and management practices, plans and soil information, accompanies the data and are made available on the e-RA website. e-RA was released externally to the wider scientific community in 2013 and this paper describes its development, content, curation and the access process for data users. Case studies illustrate the diverse applications of the data, including its original intended purposes and recent unforeseen applications. Usage monitoring demonstrates the data are of increasing interest. Future developments, including adopting FAIR data principles, are proposed as the resource is increasingly recognised as a unique archive of data relevant to sustainable agriculture, agroecology and the environment.

Major limitations to achieving "4 per 1000" increases in soil organic carbon stock in temperate regions: Evidence from long-term experiments at Rothamsted Research, United Kingdom.

We evaluated the "4 per 1000" initiative for increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) by analysing rates of SOC increase in treatments in 16 long-term experiments in southeast United Kingdom. The initiative sets a goal for SOC stock to increase by 4‰ per year in the 0-40 cm soil depth, continued over 20 years. Our experiments, on three soil types, provided 114 treatment comparisons over 7-157 years. Treatments included organic additions (incorporated by inversion ploughing), N fertilizers, introducing pasture leys into continuous arable systems, and converting arable land to woodland. In 65% of cases, SOC increases occurred at >7‰ per year in the 0-23 cm depth, approximately equivalent to 4‰ per year in the 0-40 cm depth. In the two longest running experiments (>150 years), annual farmyard manure (FYM) applications at 35 t fresh material per hectare (equivalent to approx. 3.2 t organic C/ha/year) gave SOC increases of 18‰ and 43‰ per year in the 23 cm depth during the first 20 years. Increases exceeding 7‰ per year continued for 40-60 years. In other experiments, with FYM applied at lower rates or not every year, there were increases of 3‰-8‰ per year over several decades. Other treatments gave increases between zero and 19‰ per year over various periods. We conclude that there are severe limitations to achieving the "4 per 1000" goal in practical agriculture over large areas. The reasons include (1) farmers not having the necessary resources (e.g. insufficient manure); (2) some, though not all, practices favouring SOC already widely adopted; (3) practices uneconomic for farmers-potentially overcome by changes in regulations or subsidies; (4) practices undesirable for global food security. We suggest it is more realistic to promote practices for increasing SOC based on improving soil quality and functioning as small increases can have disproportionately large beneficial impacts, though not necessarily translating into increased crop yield.

Genome size and ploidy influence angiosperm species' biomass under nitrogen and phosphorus limitation.

Angiosperm genome sizes (GS) range c. 2400-fold, and as nucleic acids are amongst the most phosphorus- (P) and nitrogen (N)-demanding cellular biomolecules, we test the hypothesis that a key influence on plant biomass and species composition is the interaction between N and P availability and plant GS. We analysed the impact of different nutrient regimes on above-ground biomass of angiosperm species with different GS, ploidy level and Grime's C-S-R (competitive, stress-tolerant, ruderal) plant strategies growing at the Park Grass Experiment (Rothamsted, UK), established in 1856. The biomass-weighted mean GS of species growing on plots with the addition of both N and P fertilizer were significantly higher than that of plants growing on control plots and plots with either N or P. The plants on these N + P plots are dominated by polyploids with large GS and a competitive plant strategy. The results are consistent with our hypothesis that large genomes are costly to build and maintain under N and P limitation. Hence GS and ploidy are significant traits affecting biomass growth under different nutrient regimes, influencing plant community composition and ecosystem dynamics. We propose that GS is a critical factor needed in models that bridge the knowledge gap between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

Last-Century Increases in Intrinsic Water-Use Efficiency of Grassland Communities Have Occurred over a Wide Range of Vegetation Composition, Nutrient Inputs, and Soil pH.

Last-century climate change has led to variable increases of the intrinsic water-use efficiency (Wi; the ratio of net CO2 assimilation to stomatal conductance for water vapor) of trees and C3 grassland ecosystems, but the causes of the variability are not well understood. Here, we address putative drivers underlying variable Wi responses in a wide range of grassland communities. Wi was estimated from carbon isotope discrimination in archived herbage samples from 16 contrasting fertilizer treatments in the Park Grass Experiment, Rothamsted, England, for the 1915 to 1929 and 1995 to 2009 periods. Changes in Wi were analyzed in relation to nitrogen input, soil pH, species richness, and functional group composition. Treatments included liming as well as phosphorus and potassium additions with or without ammonium or nitrate fertilizer applications at three levels. Wi increased between 11% and 25% (P < 0.001) in the different treatments between the two periods. None of the fertilizers had a direct effect on the change of Wi (ΔWi). However, soil pH (P < 0.05), species richness (P < 0.01), and percentage grass content (P < 0.01) were significantly related to ΔWi. Grass-dominated, species-poor plots on acidic soils showed the largest ΔWi (+14.7 µmol mol(-1)). The ΔWi response of these acidic plots was probably related to drought effects resulting from aluminum toxicity on root growth. Our results from the Park Grass Experiment show that Wi in grassland communities consistently increased over a wide range of nutrient inputs, soil pH, and plant community compositions during the last century.

Historical arsenic contamination of soil due to long-term phosphate fertiliser applications.

Archived samples from the Park Grass Experiment, established in 1856, were analysed to determine the impacts of long-term phosphate fertiliser applications on arsenic concentrations in soil and herbage. In plots receiving 35 kg P ha(-1) annually (+P), topsoil As concentrations almost doubled from an initial value of ∼10 mg kg(-1) during 1888-1947 and remained stable thereafter. The phosphate fertilisers used before 1948 contained 401-1575 mg As kg(-1), compared to 1.6-20.3 mg As kg(-1) in the later samples. Herbage samples from the +P plots collected during 1888-1947 contained significantly more As than those from the -P plots, but later samples did not differ significantly. Mass-balance calculations show that the increase in soil As can be explained by the As input from P fertiliser applications before 1948. The results demonstrate that the P fertilisers used on the Park Grass Experiment before 1948 caused substantial As contamination of the soil.