Development of a probabilistic risk model for pharmaceuticals in the environment under population and wastewater treatment scenarios.

Preparing for future environmental pressures requires projections of how relevant risks will change over time. Current regulatory models of environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pollutants such as pharmaceuticals could be improved by considering the influence of global change factors (e.g., population growth) and by presenting uncertainty more transparently. In this article, we present the development of a prototype object-oriented Bayesian network (BN) for the prediction of environmental risk for six high-priority pharmaceuticals across 36 scenarios: current and three future population scenarios, combined with infrastructure scenarios, in three Norwegian counties. We compare the risk, characterized by probability distributions of risk quotients (RQs), across scenarios and pharmaceuticals. Our results suggest that RQs would be greatest in rural counties, due to the lower development of current wastewater treatment facilities, but that these areas consequently have the most potential for risk mitigation. This pattern intensifies under higher population growth scenarios. With this prototype, we developed a hierarchical probabilistic model and demonstrated its potential in forecasting the environmental risk of chemical stressors under plausible demographic and management scenarios, contributing to the further development of BNs for ERA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-21. © 2024 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Experiment data: Human-in-the-loop decision support in process control rooms.

These datasets contain measures from multi-modal data sources. They include objective and subjective measures commonly used to determine cognitive states of workload, situational awareness, stress, and fatigue using data collection tools such as NASA-TLX, SART, eye tracking, EEG, Health Monitoring Watch, a survey to assess training, and a think-aloud situational awareness assessment following the SPAM methodology. Also, data from a simulation formaldehyde production plant based on the interaction of the participants in a controlled control room experimental setting is included. The interaction with the plant is based on a human-in-the-loop alarm handling and process control task flow, which includes Monitoring, Alarm Handling, Recovery planning, and intervention (Troubleshooting, Control and Evaluation). Data was collected from 92 participants, split into four groups while they underwent the described task flow. Each participant tested three scenarios lasting 15-18 min with a -10-min survey completion and break period in between using different combinations of decision support tools. The decision support tools tested and varied for each group include alarm prioritisation vs. none, paper-based vs. Digitised screen-based procedures, and an AI recommendation system. This is relevant to compare current practices in the industry and the impact on operators' performance and safety. It is also applicable to validate proposed solutions for the industry. A statistical analysis was performed on the dataset to compare the outcomes of the different groups. Decision-makers can use these datasets for control room design and optimisation, process safety engineers, system engineers, human factors engineers, all in process industries, and researchers in similar or close domains.

Incorporating climate projections in the environmental risk assessment of pesticides in aquatic ecosystems.

Global climate change will significantly impact the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems, both directly and indirectly via the exacerbation of impacts from other stressors. Pesticides form a prime example of chemical stressors that are expected to synergize with climate change. Aquatic exposures to pesticides might change in magnitude due to increased runoff from agricultural fields, and in composition, as application patterns will change due to changes in pest pressures and crop types. Any prospective chemical risk assessment that aims to capture the influence of climate change should properly and comprehensively account for the variabilities and uncertainties that are inherent to projections of future climate. This is only feasible if they probabilistically propagate extensive ensembles of climate model projections. However, current prospective risk assessments typically make use of process-based models of chemical fate that do not typically allow for such high-throughput applications. Here, we describe a Bayesian network model that does. It incorporates a two-step univariate regression model based on a 30-day antecedent precipitation index, circumventing the need for computationally laborious mechanistic models. We show its feasibility and application potential in a case study with two pesticides in a Norwegian stream: the fungicide trifloxystrobin and herbicide clopyralid. Our analysis showed that variations in pesticide application rates as well as precipitation intensity lead to variations in in-stream exposures. When relating to aquatic risks, the influence of these processes is reduced and distributions of risk are dominated by effect-related parameters. Predicted risks for clopyralid were negligible, but the probability of unacceptable future environmental risks due to exposure to trifloxystrobin (i.e., a risk quotient >1) was 8%-12%. This percentage further increased to 30%-35% when a more conservative precautionary factor of 100 instead of 30 was used. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:384-400. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Creating urban green infrastructure where it is needed - A spatial ecosystem service-based decision analysis of green roofs in Barcelona.

As cities face increasing pressure from densification trends, green roofs represent a valuable source of ecosystem services for residents of compact metropolises where available green space is scarce. However, to date little research has been conducted regarding the holistic benefits of green roofs at a citywide scale, with local policymakers lacking practical guidance to inform expansion of green roofs coverage. The study addresses this issue by developing a spatial multi-criteria screening tool applied in Barcelona, Spain to determine: 1) where green roofs should be prioritized in Barcelona based on expert elicited demand for a wide range of ecosystem services and 2) what type of design of potential green roofs would optimize the ecosystem service provision. As inputs to the model, fifteen spatial indicators were selected as proxies for ecosystem service deficits and demands (thermal regulation, runoff control, habitat and pollination, food production, recreation, and social cohesion) along with five decision alternatives for green roof design (extensive, semi-intensive, intensive, naturalized, and allotment). These indicators and alternatives were analyzed probabilistically and spatially, then weighted according to feedback from local experts. Results of the assessment indicate that there is high demand across Barcelona for the ecosystem services that green roofs potentially might provide, particularly in dense residential neighborhoods and the industrial south. Experts identified habitat, pollination and thermal regulation as the most needed ES with runoff control and food production as the least demanded. Naturalized roofs generated the highest potential ecosystem service provision levels for 87.5% of rooftop area, apart from smaller areas of central Barcelona where intensive rooftops were identified as the preferable green roof design. Overall, the spatial model developed in this study offers a flexible screening based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis that can be easily adjusted to guide municipal policy in other cities considering the effectiveness of green infrastructure as source of ecosystem services.

Variations over the message computation algorithm of lazy propagation.

Improving the performance of belief updating becomes increasingly important as real-world Bayesian networks continue to grow larger and more complex. In this paper, an investigation is done on how variations over the message-computation algorithm of lazy propagation may impact its performance. Lazy propagation is a junction-tree-based inference algorithm for belief updating in Bayesian networks. Lazy propagation combines variable elimination (VE) with a Shenoy-Shafer message-passing scheme in an attempt to exploit the independence properties induced by evidence in a junction-tree-based algorithm. The authors investigate, the use of arc reversal (AR) and symbolic probabilistic inference (SPI) as alternative algorithms for computing clique-to-clique messages in lazy propagation. The paper presents the results of an empirical evaluation of the performance of lazy propagation using AR, SPI, and VE as the message-computation algorithm. The results of the empirical evaluation show that no single algorithm outperforms or is outperformed by the other two alternatives. In many cases, there is no significant difference in the performance of the three algorithms.