Application of mathematical modelling to inform national malaria intervention planning in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: For their 2021-2025 National Malaria Strategic Plan (NMSP), Nigeria's National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP), in partnership with the World Health Organization (WHO), developed a targeted approach to intervention deployment at the local government area (LGA) level as part of the High Burden to High Impact response. Mathematical models of malaria transmission were used to predict the impact of proposed intervention strategies on malaria burden. METHODS: An agent-based model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission was used to simulate malaria morbidity and mortality in Nigeria's 774 LGAs under four possible intervention strategies from 2020 to 2030. The scenarios represented the previously implemented plan (business-as-usual), the NMSP at an 80% or higher coverage level and two prioritized plans according to the resources available to Nigeria. LGAs were clustered into 22 epidemiological archetypes using monthly rainfall, temperature suitability index, vector abundance, pre-2010 parasite prevalence, and pre-2010 vector control coverage. Routine incidence data were used to parameterize seasonality in each archetype. Each LGA's baseline malaria transmission intensity was calibrated to parasite prevalence in children under the age of five years measured in the 2010 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS). Intervention coverage in the 2010-2019 period was obtained from the Demographic and Health Survey, MIS, the NMEP, and post-campaign surveys. RESULTS: Pursuing a business-as-usual strategy was projected to result in a 5% and 9% increase in malaria incidence in 2025 and 2030 compared with 2020, while deaths were projected to remain unchanged by 2030. The greatest intervention impact was associated with the NMSP scenario with 80% or greater coverage of standard interventions coupled with intermittent preventive treatment in infants and extension of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) to 404 LGAs, compared to 80 LGAs in 2019. The budget-prioritized scenario with SMC expansion to 310 LGAs, high bed net coverage with new formulations, and increase in effective case management rate at the same pace as historical levels was adopted as an adequate alternative for the resources available. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamical models can be applied for relative assessment of the impact of intervention scenarios but improved subnational data collection systems are required to allow increased confidence in predictions at sub-national level.

Non-falciparum malaria infection and IgG seroprevalence among children under 15 years in Nigeria, 2018.

Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) is the dominant malaria parasite in Nigeria though P. vivax (Pv), P. ovale (Po), and P. malariae (Pm) are also endemic. Blood samples (n = 31,234) were collected from children aged 0-14 years during a 2018 nationwide HIV survey and assayed for Plasmodium antigenemia, Plasmodium DNA, and IgG against Plasmodium MSP1-19 antigens. Of all children, 6.6% were estimated to have Pm infection and 1.4% Po infection with no Pv infections detected. The highest household wealth quintile was strongly protective against infection with Pm (aOR: 0.11, 95% CI: 0.05-0.22) or Po (aOR= 0.01, 0.00-0.10). Overall Pm seroprevalence was 34.2% (95% CI: 33.3-35.2) with lower estimates for Po (12.1%, 11.6-12.5) and Pv (6.3%, 6.0-6.7). Pm seropositivity was detected throughout the country with several local government areas showing >50% seroprevalence. Serological and DNA indicators show widespread exposure of Nigerian children to Pm with lower rates to Po and Pv.

Drivers of long-lasting insecticide-treated net utilisation and parasitaemia among under-five children in 13 States with high malaria burden in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Although Nigeria has made some progress in malaria control, there are variations across States. We investigated the factors associated with utilisation of long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) and parasitaemia among under-five children in 13 States with high malaria burden. METHOD: Data from the 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey and 2018 Demographic and Health Survey were obtained and analysed. The 2015 and 2018 data were compared to identify States with increase or reduction in parasitaemia. Analysis was done for all the 13 study States; four States with increased parasitaemia and nine States with reduction. Random-effects logit models were fitted to identify independent predictors of LLIN utilisation and parasitaemia. RESULTS: LLIN was used by 53.4% of 2844 children, while parasitaemia prevalence was 26.4% in 2018. Grandchildren (AOR = 5.35, CI: 1.09-26.19) were more likely to use LLIN while other relatives (AOR = 0.33, CI: 0.11-0.94) were less likely compared to children of household-heads. LLIN use was more common in children whose mother opined that only weak children could die from malaria (AOR = 1.83, CI: 1.10-3.10). Children whose mothers obtained net from antenatal or immunisation clinics (AOR = 5.30, CI: 2.32-12.14) and campaigns (AOR = 1.77, CI: 1.03-3.04) were also more likely to use LLIN. In contrast, LLIN utilisation was less likely among children in female-headed households (AOR = 0.51, CI: 0.27-0.99) and those in poor-quality houses (AOR = 0.25, CI: 0.09-0.72). Children aged 24-59 months compared to 0-11 months (AOR = 1.78, CI: 1.28-2.48), those in whom fever was reported (AOR = 1.31, CI: 1.06-1.63) and children of uneducated women (AOR = 1.89, CI: 1.32-2.70) were more likely to have parasitaemia. The likelihood of parasitaemia was higher among children from poor households compared to the rich (AOR = 2.06, CI: 1.24-3.42). The odds of parasitaemia were 98% higher among rural children (AOR = 1.98, CI: 1.37-2.87). CONCLUSION: The key drivers of LLIN utilisation were source of net and socioeconomic characteristics. The latter was also a key factor associated with parasitaemia. These should be targeted as part of integrated malaria elimination efforts.

Design and methods for a quasi-experimental pilot study to evaluate the impact of dual active ingredient insecticide-treated nets on malaria burden in five regions in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Vector control tools have contributed significantly to a reduction in malaria burden since 2000, primarily through insecticidal-treated bed nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying. In the face of increasing insecticide resistance in key malaria vector species, global progress in malaria control has stalled. Innovative tools, such as dual active ingredient (dual-AI) ITNs that are effective at killing insecticide-resistant mosquitoes have recently been introduced. However, large-scale uptake has been slow for several reasons, including higher costs and limited evidence on their incremental effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The present report describes the design of several observational studies aimed to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dual-AI ITNs, compared to standard pyrethroid-only ITNs, at reducing malaria transmission across a variety of transmission settings. METHODS: Observational pilot studies are ongoing in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Rwanda, leveraging dual-AI ITN rollouts nested within the 2019 and 2020 mass distribution campaigns in each country. Enhanced surveillance occurring in select study districts include annual cross-sectional surveys during peak transmission seasons, monthly entomological surveillance, passive case detection using routine health facility surveillance systems, and studies on human behaviour and ITN use patterns. Data will compare changes in malaria transmission and disease burden in districts receiving dual-AI ITNs to similar districts receiving standard pyrethroid-only ITNs over three years. The costs of net distribution will be calculated using the provider perspective including financial and economic costs, and a cost-effectiveness analysis will assess incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for Interceptor® G2, Royal Guard®, and piperonyl butoxide ITNs in comparison to standard pyrethroid-only ITNs, based on incidence rate ratios calculated from routine data. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the dual-AI ITNs from these pilot studies will complement evidence from two contemporary cluster randomized control trials, one in Benin and one in Tanzania, to provide key information to malaria control programmes, policymakers, and donors to help guide decision-making and planning for local malaria control and elimination strategies. Understanding the breadth of contexts where these dual-AI ITNs are most effective and collecting robust information on factors influencing comparative effectiveness could improve uptake and availability and help maximize their impact.

The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.

The burden of malaria is heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 are rising1. In response, countries are implementing societal measures aimed at curtailing transmission of SARS-CoV-22,3. Despite these measures, the COVID-19 epidemic could still result in millions of deaths as local health facilities become overwhelmed4. Advances in malaria control this century have been largely due to distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs)5, with many SSA countries having planned campaigns for 2020. In the present study, we use COVID-19 and malaria transmission models to estimate the impact of disruption of malaria prevention activities and other core health services under four different COVID-19 epidemic scenarios. If activities are halted, the malaria burden in 2020 could be more than double that of 2019. In Nigeria alone, reducing case management for 6 months and delaying LLIN campaigns could result in 81,000 (44,000-119,000) additional deaths. Mitigating these negative impacts is achievable, and LLIN distributions in particular should be prioritized alongside access to antimalarial treatments to prevent substantial malaria epidemics.

Setting a Nigeria national malaria operational research agenda: the process.

BACKGROUND: Employing malaria operational research (MOR) findings in planning national malaria control programmes is gaining increased attention. The malaria control foci are diverse, resources are limited; therefore, agreeing on priority areas is critical. Hitherto, the process of prioritising MOR questions in Nigeria has been limited to few stakeholders. In support of the National Malaria Elimination Programme's (NMEP) effort at setting a MOR agenda, the Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme (NFELTP) in collaboration with NMEP conducted preliminary exploratory study to identify key malaria research gaps and needs, and provide data to inform setting a robust national MOR agenda. The process of generating data is presented in this paper. METHODS: A twelve-member task-team comprising NFELTP, university researchers and NMEP officers was commissioned. Following an inaugural meeting the task-team developed a framework of activities and held five planning meetings, conducted five-week online and self-administered paper-based surveys, key informant interview (KII), two-day desk review workshop, seven-day qualitative data analysis, ten-day result and five-day report writing workshops. Paired group members conducted the interviews across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Abridged study report was used for a two-day MOR setting agenda stakeholders' workshop. RESULTS: A structured framework, study protocol and data collection instruments were developed and submitted for ethical approval. The instruments included survey questionnaire for detailed information on researchers and other stakeholders' experience with MOR, the gaps and needs in thematic MOR areas; KII and Delphi guides. After an initial scoping review, primary data were collected from purposively selected survey participants using mixed methods: - online survey (n = 100), self-administered paper-based survey (n = 85), KII (n = 40), desk review workshop (n = 22) and Delphi interviews (n = 8). Comprehensive lists of research gaps/bottlenecks and needs were generated for each thematic area in malaria control. These were used at a two-day national MOR setting stakeholder workshop (n = 54) to guide the development of national MOR agenda document. CONCLUSIONS: A systematic approach involving broad stakeholder engagement provided data and evidence-based information for development of a robust national MOR agenda. The processes involved are recommended for use in malaria endemic settings.

Provider and patient perceptions of malaria rapid diagnostic test use in Nigeria: a cross-sectional evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria commenced a phased programmatic deployment of rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) at the primary health care (PHC) facility levels since 2011. Despite various efforts, the national testing rate for malaria is still very low. The uptake of RDT has been variable. This study was undertaken to determine the provider and patient perceptions to RDT use at the PHC level in Nigeria with their implications for improving uptake and compliance. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 120 randomly selected PHCs across six states, across the six-geopolitical zones of Nigeria in January 2013. Health facility staff interviews were conducted to assess health workers (HW) perception, prescription practices and determinants of RDT use. Patient exit interviews were conducted to assess patient perception of RDT from ten patients/caregivers who met the eligibility criterion and were consecutively selected in each PHC, and to determine HW's compliance with RDT test results indirectly. Community members, each selected by their ward development committees in each Local Government Area were recruited for focus group discussion on their perceptions to RDT use. RESULTS: Health workers would use RDT results because of confidence in RDT results (95.4%) and its reduction in irrational use of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) (87.2%). However, in Enugu state, RDT was not used by health workers because of the pervasive notion RDT that results were inaccurate. Among the 1207 exit interviews conducted, 549 (45.5%) had received RDT test. Compliance rate (administering ACT to positive patients and withholding ACT from negative patients) from patient exit interviews was 90.2%. Among caregivers/patients who had RDT done, over 95% knew that RDT tested for malaria, felt it was necessary and liked the test. Age of patients less than 5 years (p = 0.04) and "high" educational status (p = 0.0006) were factors influencing HW's prescription of ACT to RDT negative patients. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated positive perception to RDT use by HW and among community members with good compliance rate among health workers at the PHC level. This positive perception should be explored in improving the current low level of malaria testing in Nigeria while addressing the influence of age on HW administration of ACT to RDT negative cases.