ABSTRACT
A simple and accurate prognostic tool for Heart Failure (HF) patients is critical to improve follow-up. Different risk scores are accurate but with limited clinical applicability. The current study aims to derive and validate a simple predictive tool for HF prognosis. French outpatients with stable HF of two university hospitals were included in the derivation (N = 134) or in the validation (N = 274) sample and followed up for a median of 23 months. Potential predictors were variables with known association with mortality and easily available. The proSCANNED risk score was derived using a parametric survival model on complete case data; it includes 8 binary variables and its values are 0-8. In the validation sample, the ability of the score to discriminate the 1-year vital status was moderate (AUC = 0.71, IC95% = [0.64-0.71]). However, the stratification of the score in three groups showed a good calibration for patients in the low- and medium-risk risk group. The proSCANNED score is an easy-to-use tool in clinical practice with a good discrimination, stability, and calibration sufficient to improve the medical care of patients. Other follow up studies are necessary to assess score applicability in larger populations, and its impact.
