Colorectal cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis 2004-2018.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the effects of factors including age, birth year (cohort) and diagnosis year (period) on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence trends in Golestan, Northeast of Iran, 2004-2018. METHODS: We obtained data on incidence cases of CRC from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry by sex and area of residence (urban/rural). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated using the World standard population and presented per 100,000 person-years. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) fitted age-period-cohort (APC) models to assess non-linear period and cohort effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: Overall, 2839 new cases of CRC (ASR = 13.7) were registered in the GPCR over 2004-2018. Our findings suggested significantly increasing trends in CRC incidence rates from 2004 to 2018 (EAPC = 3.7; 95%CI: 0.4, 7.1), with the greatest changes occurring in rural women (EAPC= 4.7; 95%CI: 0.4, 9.2). We observed a strong cohort effect with a consistent increase in the IRR across successive birth cohorts, starting with the oldest birth cohort (1924) (IRR= 0.1 versus the reference birth cohort of 1955) through to the most recent cohort born in 1983 (IRR= 1.9). The largest cohort effects were found among rural females (IRR = 0.0, and IRR = 2.5 for the oldest and the youngest birth cohorts vs. the reference birth cohort, respectively). CONCLUSION: The increasing trends in CRC rates in Golestan are largely driven by generational changes in exposure to underlying risk factors. Further investigations are warranted to deliver effective prevention strategies for the control of CRC in Golestan.

Five-year relative survival and determinants of excess mortality in patients with head and neck and thyroid cancers: A population-based study from Golestan province, Northern Iran.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess relative survival (RS) and determinants of excess mortality rate in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) and thyroid cancer in Golestan province, Northern Iran. METHODS: We recruited new primary HNSCC and thyroid cancer cases from Golestan, 2006-2016. Five-year age-standardized RS with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. The relationships between different variables with excess mortality rates were assessed by estimating adjusted excess hazard ratios (aEHRs) with their 95% CIs. RESULTS: Overall, 718 cases of HNSCC and 386 thyroid cancer cases were enrolled. Five-year age-standardized RS (95% CI) were 36% (31-41) and 61% (52-69) in HNSCC and thyroid cancer patients, respectively. There were significant relationship between excess mortality rates in HNSCC patients with metastasis (aEHR= 3.31; 95%CI: 2.26-4.84), treatment type (4.19; 2.54-6.91, for no treatment as compared to receiving both surgery and chemoradiotherapy), age (2.16; 1.57-2.96, for older age group) and smoking (2.00; 1.45-2.75, for smokers as compared to non-smokers). Determinant of the excess mortality in thyroid cancer patients included metastasis (19.65; 8.08-47.79), tumor morphology (12.27; 4.62-32.58, for anaplastic cancer as compared to papillary cancer), treatment type (8.95, 4.13-19.4, for no treatment as compared to receiving both surgery and iodine therapy) and age (2.31; 1.17-4.54, for older age group). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggested low RS for thyroid cancer in our population, while the estimates for HNSCC were comparable with other population. Metastasis, treatment type and age were determinants of mortality both in thyroid and HNSCC patients.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic and associated factors for mortality in Golestan province, Iran: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to further clarify the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 2019-nCoV pneumonia and risk factors associated for mortality. METHODS: In this study, we included inpatient with acute respiratory distress syndrome at Golestan Hospitals who had been discharged or had died in 2020. Epidemiological, and clinical data were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between recovered and died cases. We used multiple logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. RESULTS: Overall 2,835 acute respiratory distress syndrome patients were included in this study, and 874 (30.83%) were positive for 2019-nCoV. Five hundred and sixty-three patients (19.86%) died, 1,687 patients (59.51%) were recovered. Of the total deaths, only 288 (10.15%) were attributed to COVID-19. The most common symptoms at onset of illness were respiratory distress [1,795 (63.32%)], fever [1,601 (56.47%)], dry cough [1,595 (56.26%)], sore throat [445 (15.70%)], and myalgia [342 (12.06%)]. One thousand and twelve (35.7%) had 1 or more coexisting medical conditions. In multiple logistic regression analysis, risk factors associated with the death included older age [OR (Odds Ratio) = 1.03; 95% CI; 1.02-1.04], blood oxygen level (SPO2 < 93%) (OR = 2.44; 95% CI; 1.79-3.31), comorbidities (OR = 2.15; 95% CI; 1.62-2.84), respiratory distress (OR = 1.74; 95% CI; 1.28-2.37), and headache (OR = 0.44 95% CI; 0.21-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: The 2019-nCoV infection caused collections of severe respiratory illness and was associated to a high ratio of hospitalization in ICU and high mortality. Older age and comorbidities were associated with more risk of death among patients with 2019-nCoV.

Recent cancer incidence trends and short-term predictions in Golestan, Iran 2004-2025.

BACKGROUND: We examine recent trends in the major cancers occurring in the Golestan province, a high-risk region for upper gastrointestinal cancers in Northern Iran, and provide short-term cancer predictions of the future cancer burden. METHODS: New cancer cases diagnosed in Golestan 2004-2016 were obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR) database, and age-standardized rates by cancer site, year and sex calculated per 100,000 person-years. Using IARC's DepPred package we fitted time-linear age-period models to the available GPCR data to predict the cancer incidence burden in the year 2025. We calculated the contribution of demographic changes versus changes in risk to the overall changes in incidence from 2016 to 2025. RESULTS: The number of new cancer cases (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers) in 2025 is predicted to increase by 61.3% from 2678 cases in 2016 to 4319 cases. While a 17.6% reduction in the number of esophageal cancer cases is predicted by 2025, the number of new cases for each of the remaining major cancers is predicted to increase over the next decade, including cancers of the stomach (a 36.1% increase from 2016 to 2025), colorectum (56.2%), lung (67.8%), female breast (93.2%), prostate (101.8%) and leukemia (96.1%). The changes in the population structure and risk contributed 37.8% and 23.5% respectively, to the overall increase in incidence. CONCLUSION: Other than for the major upper gastrointestinal cancer types, the incidence rates of common cancers observed in the province are on the rise, reinforcing the need for continuous surveillance, as well as the design and implementation of effective cancer control programs.